Brexit Referendum Superthread

pablomakaveli

I honestly dont blame them for their stance. The UK has always been a thorn in the side of the EU and its constant demands for special treatment could only have stirred resentment. Not to mention having to put up with UKIP for the last few years. I think they just want to get this over with as soon as possible so the rest of the EU countries can move forward.

ShooterSF

K-9 wrote: »

Well Farage did say he'd want another referendum if the vote was close...

If they'd lost the campaign would go on so they can't really complain when the others do it.

In fairness though he's not exactly someone people should look to emulate.

stefanovich

topmanamillion wrote: »

I'm delighted with the EUs stances.
Britain has been playing a game of chicken for a few years now and the EU have finally told them hurry up and leave.
Waiting until October is even too long for the EU.

pablomakaveli wrote: »

I honestly dont blame them for their stance. The UK has always been a thorn in the side of the EU and its constant demands for special treatment could only have stirred resentment. Not to mention having to put up with UKIP for the last few years. I think they just want to get this over with as soon as possible so the rest of the EU countries can move forward.

The UK were fighting to improve things. Other countries should be also looking to actually stand up for their people rather than trying to punish Britain. It's all about how to retain power now for these people. Self interest is their main priority.

ShooterSF wrote: »

In fairness though he's not exactly someone people should look to emulate.

Don't get why people have a problem with Farage. He fought for what he believed in and now it is a reality.

stefanovich

Polo_Mint wrote: »

The UK wants to leave

The EU are telling them their taxi is waiting outside.

Delaying Article 50 is just showing that the UK are having second thoughts or showing the market that the the UK have no fucking idea what they are doing.

Its a win/win for the EU as its showing the Market that the EU is serious and that its going to be hard to take the UK serious after they leave.

Stock markets in peripheral European countries were hit hardest with the news. UK is a massive economy. If anything traders are worried about Europe's survival. (and their own pocketbook)

Inquitus

Whats the best outcome for Ireland? I am thinking we need 2 things from this:

Unfettered Trade between UK and Ireland
Free travel between the Republic and the North

The Brits could join the EEA if they will accept the terms, re free travel and having to contribute to the EU Budget, abide by EU rules etc. It's hard to see how they could sell that to the Brexit public though.

I think they will have to put in place some sort of immigration checks between the North and the mainland, aside from a hard border with the Republic this is the only other way to stop the Republic being a conduit for illegal immigrants looking to reach the UK, might piss the Loyalists off a bit but it would be the best solution in regards to keeping the status quo up north and not putting the good friday agreement in jeopardy.

In order for there to be no hard border there would have to be unfettered trade, no tariffs etc.

It could go in our favour if the EU restricts the UK Banks on the basis they lose their banking passports when they leave the EU, real opportunity for them to establish an extra base in Ireland for some of their operations.

djpbarry

djpbarry wrote: »

The difference is that Norway and Iceland haven't joined.

But the point is that, like the UK apparently, EU membership isn't a right fit for them, although Iceland has now changed its mind. Nevertheless, Iceland hasn't had seen military bloodshed since around the period when the Normans were fighting the Irish.

I'm just saying you cannot ascribe every positive aspect of European peace & prosperity to the EU.

That's not for one moment to detract from the overwhelming positive benefits of the EU. It's just being honest. The EU did not invent ice cream and warm apple pie (although, it probably did write some regulations about them)

Its dead Jim

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

But the point is that, like the UK apparently, EU membership isn't a right fit for them, although Iceland has now changed its mind. Nevertheless, Iceland hasn't had seen military bloodshed since around the period when the Normans were fighting the Irish.

I'm just saying you cannot ascribe every positive aspect of European peace & prosperity to the EU.

That's not for one moment to detract from the overwhelming positive benefits of the EU. It's just being honest. The EU did not invent ice cream and warm apple pie (although, it probably did write some regulations about them)

They could always accept a Norway style deal but that would mean accepting some things that they were campaigning against. What was the point in leaving over immigration, "undemocratic" decisions, paying money in when none of that changes? The Brexit campaign would have lied to its voters. Although Farage has already got the ball rolling.

Nody

smjm wrote: »

Simple solution to Brexit:

Carry on free trade of goods and services.
All EU citizens currently working in UK can carry on doing so. (Many qualify for UK citizenship anyway.)
Allow free movement of people between EU and UK, but not freedom to work, which would be points based.
(UK would probably still have large net inward migration, but would feel better about having some control).
No right to UK welfare/benefits for EU citizens, unless they work (legally) in the UK.

Yeah, I know, a bit too simple!

Except that minor part where over half the EU countries would never allow it...

Polo_Mint

stefanovich wrote: »

Stock markets in peripheral European countries were hit hardest with the news. UK is a massive economy. If anything traders are worried about Europe's survival. (and their own pocketbook)

Yes but the EU are showing that they are dealing with it and want it dealt with NOW.

The Markets also what it dealt with NOW

The only people who are not dealing with it NOW are the UK

By delaying Article 50 is showing that the UK are unable to decide on what to do next.

By the EU pushing the activation of Article 50 is showing that they want to continue to strengthen and move forward.

It makes the UK look like the problem child that wants to drag all markets down with them.

Pretty quickly, The Markets will take a tougher stance on the UK

Its dead Jim

Its dead Jim wrote: »

They could always accept a Norway style deal but that would mean accepting some things that they were campaigning against. What was the point in leaving over immigration, "undemocratic" decisions, paying money in when none of that changes?

Well, we don't know what type of deal they'll get yet. The UK is not as reliant as Norway upon EU trade. It has very much diversified its exports since the turn of the millennium, especially to emerging markets and to China.

Imports is another matter, it's a problem, but maybe that problem will force new opportunities for UK manufacturing.

And whilst the EU is subject to European regulations, that only applies in respect of trade, and not things like the Charter on Fundamental Rights, or other areas of EU law, such as bank regulation.

Come on, there are benefits, and the UK has decided that the benefits of leaving outweigh the negatives. Maybe they're correct, maybe they're not. I think it's too early to say, if we're honest.

Patser

Labour MP calling, hoping, praying for it all to be cancelled. Reminding people it's advisory only, so a parliamentary vote could cancel it.

It'd take serious brass neck to pull off that trick.

'eh! Yep, EU.... Remember that referendum that wiped $2 trillion off global markets and caused all sorts of meltdowns. Welllllll, we've changed our minds, you know quietly like. We good?'

Also it'd be Farage's wet dream come true - EU democracy is dead, I'm the true voice of Britain yadda yadda

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/746728892279431168

mansize

Nobody listens to lammy

smjm

Patser wrote: »

Labour MP calling, hoping, praying for it all to be cancelled. Reminding people it's advisory only, so a parliamentary vote could cancel it.

The MP is technically correct, of course. They don't even need a vote to cancel it. As of now, absolutely nothing has legally changed as regards the UK's relationship with the EU. Westminster is currently under no legal obligation to invoke Article 50, either in a hurry or, indeed, at all.

Inquitus

smjm wrote: »

The MP is technically correct, of course. They don't even need a vote to cancel it. As of now, absolutely nothing has legally changed as regards the UK's relationship with the EU. Westminster is currently under no legal obligation to invoke Article 50, either in a hurry or, indeed, at all.

The only way they could legitimize pulling back from the brink now would be for there to be a general election with Labour making remaining in the EU the cornerstone policy of its Manifesto and winning a convincing victory at the polls, and perhaps running a 2nd referendum on the matter.

donaghs

topmanamillion wrote: »

I'm delighted with the EUs stances.
Britain has been playing a game of chicken for a few years now and the EU have finally told them hurry up and leave.
Waiting until October is even too long for the EU.

Yes, being rushed by Junkers into cutting off links with our main export market and trading partner is "delightful"?

Latest news though is that Merkel, a real power player, is suggesting calm and moderation.

smjm

Inquitus wrote: »

The only way they could legitimize pulling back from the brink now would be for there to be a general election with Labour making remaining in the EU the cornerstone policy of its Manifesto and winning a convincing victory at the polls, and perhaps running a 2nd referendum on the matter.

I think that would be more likely to cause civil unrest than be a way forward!

To be clear though, I was only stating that the UK Parliament is a sovereign entity that can, more or less, do what it likes.

Burty330

My Mother was born in England. I'm a Paddy obviously. Does that entitle me to a British passport?

whatever_

Inquitus wrote: »

Whats the best outcome for Ireland? I am thinking we need 2 things from this:

Unfettered Trade between UK and Ireland
Free travel between the Republic and the North

The Brits could join the EEA if they will accept the terms, re free travel and having to contribute to the EU Budget, abide by EU rules etc. It's hard to see how they could sell that to the Brexit public though.

I think they will have to put in place some sort of immigration checks between the North and the mainland, aside from a hard border with the Republic this is the only other way to stop the Republic being a conduit for illegal immigrants looking to reach the UK, might piss the Loyalists off a bit but it would be the best solution in regards to keeping the status quo up north and not putting the good friday agreement in jeopardy.

In order for there to be no hard border there would have to be unfettered trade, no tariffs etc.

It could go in our favour if the EU restricts the UK Banks on the basis they lose their banking passports when they leave the EU, real opportunity for them to establish an extra base in Ireland for some of their operations.

I am in agreement with more or less everything you say. And by the way, although not currently legal according to EU law, I think it is likely that we will see a trade deal between Britain and Ireland if the wider trade deal stalls. From an English perspective, I would say that Ireland is now in a much stronger position in the EU, and the idea that the EU would prevent us from agreeing our own trade deal or to seek to impose a hard border on us would be politically very unlikely.

I can't see the UK agreeing to freedom of travel with the EU, but I confidently expect the CTA to survive. Like you, I expect immigration checks at the point of access to services rather than at a physical border. I don't think free trade is a precondition for a soft border. The tariff levels are going to be so low that nobody in their right mind would stick up a physical barrier to collect them.

Finally, like you I see UK banking jobs moving here, and more foreign multinationals as well. I think the only complication here is the possibility of an independent Scotland in the EU, which from an economic viewpoint would be bad news for Ireland.

A Dub in Glasgo

Burty330 wrote: »

My Mother was born in England. I'm a Paddy obviously. Does that entitle me to a British passport?

https://www.gov.uk/british-passport-eligibility

whatever_

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Burty330 wrote: »

My Mother was born in England. I'm a Paddy obviously. Does that entitle me to a British passport?

https://www.gov.uk/british-passport-eligibility

Yes. If you were born before 1983 and are of good character.

Polo_Mint

donaghs wrote: »

Yes, being rushed by Junkers into cutting off links with our main export market and trading partner is "delightful"?

Latest news though is that Merkel, a real power player, is suggesting calm and moderation.

Do you think it happens overnight?

It takes a minimum of 2 years which most likely will be extended.

The UK voted to leave. But delaying the inevitable makes it worse for everyone.

The UK voters have spoken of what they want.

There is nothing else to talk about.

UK: Im Leaving

EU: OK Leave

UK, Hold On, Im not ready, I have no plan.

EU: Why didnt you think of that before you said you were Leaving?

UK: * Silence *

topmanamillion

stefanovich wrote: »

The UK were fighting to improve things. Other countries should be also looking to actually stand up for their people rather than trying to punish Britain. It's all about how to retain power now for these people. Self interest is their main priority.


Don't get why people have a problem with Farage. He fought for what he believed in and now it is a reality.

Ya I've no idea why he's so disliked.

smjm

Nody wrote: »

Except that minor part where over half the EU countries would never allow it...

I did say it was a bit too simple!

But, out of interest, who do you think would object, and what to specifically?

Burty330

whatever_ wrote: »

Yes. If you were born before 1983 and are of good character.

Interesting.

Born 1982.. Can i apply while living in Eire ?

Burty330

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/british-passport-eligibility

Ta.

whatever_

Polo_Mint wrote: »

donaghs wrote: »

Yes, being rushed by Junkers into cutting off links with our main export market and trading partner is "delightful"?

Latest news though is that Merkel, a real power player, is suggesting calm and moderation.

Do you think it happens overnight?

It takes a minimum of 2 years which most likely will be extended.

The UK voted to leave. But delaying the inevitable makes it worse for everyone.

The UK voters have spoken of what they want.

There is nothing else to talk about.

UK: Im Leaving

EU: OK Leave

UK, Hold On, Im not ready, I have no plan.

EU: Why didnt you think of that before you said you were Leaving?

UK: * Silence *

Junket really is the unacceptable face of the EU. His behaviour is childish and unbefitting of the President of the EU. He should go back to running Luxembourg (population roughly that of Sheffield). It's fair to say nobody has a detailed plan (but hey, that didn't stop the EU when it introduced the Euro, so why should they be any more professional here).

Bit cynical

Polo_Mint wrote: »

The UK wants to leave

The EU are telling them their taxi is waiting outside.

Delaying Article 50 is just showing that the UK are having second thoughts or showing the market that the the UK have no fucking idea what they are doing.

Its a win/win for the EU as its showing the Market that the EU is serious and that its going to be hard to take the UK serious after they leave.

As well as being a message to their electorates on the continent, I think there's an element of genuine annoyance and shock on the part of President Hollande and the likes of Donald Tusk. Of all the outcomes of the referendum they did not expect this one.

Official Europe is now drawn in to the Tory leadership debate for the next few months. They don't know who will be elected to replace Cameron. It is not guaranteed to be Boris or even another Eurosceptic. Britain will leave the EU but it may be someone who will only grudgingly invoke Article 50. It may be a "Brexit Min" that the UK seeks or it may end up being full exit from all European institutions including the EEA.

In my opinion, it is very interesting that Cameron has done this. The precise relationship that the UK seeks with the EU will now be the subject of public debate throughout Europe as well as in Britain and this will be the template for other countries choosing to leave.

It will also be a debate about the relationship of governments in Europe and the people of Europe.

Hollande, Merkel, officials like Tusk, our own Taoiseach will all evolve their own private stance in this period of time. They will need to work out if it is best to take a very firm stance against Britain (perhaps against their own economic interests) in order to deter stroppy electorates from rising up against them, or whether to adopt a more conciliatory tone. It will vary from country to country.

If they take the former stance, however, then they risk alienating their own electorates and proving the likes of Le Pen right. Yet this stance is very damaging economically to Ireland and manufacturers in Germany are also going to oppose it threatening layoffs of German workers if export markets are threatened.

The next few months will be a time of quiet reflection for these EU leaders. They can't say too much beyond expressing annoyance that they are forced into this because they won't know the outcome for several months.

Inquitus

I was born in the UK and spent the first 20 years of my life living there, born to an Irish mother with only an Irish Passport and an British father. I have both an Irish and a British passport today, and have lived in Dublin for the past 17 years. My Kids were all born here, my wife is Irish. The kids are aged 12,10 and 6, are they entitled to a British Passport? currently they only hold Irish passports.

donaghs

Polo_Mint wrote: »

Do you think it happens overnight?

It takes a minimum of 2 years which most likely will be extended.

The UK voted to leave. But delaying the inevitable makes it worse for everyone.

The UK voters have spoken of what they want.

There is nothing else to talk about.

UK: Im Leaving

EU: OK Leave

UK, Hold On, Im not ready, I have no plan.

EU: Why didnt you think of that before you said you were Leaving?

UK: * Silence *

Nowhere did I say I thought it would happen overnight. Quite the opposite, hence mentioning Angela Merkel's recent comments.

Who in the UK should have such a plan? Cameron wanted to stay in, so was not interested in being in power after Leave vote.
The plan of the Leave campaign seems to have been to begin negotiations on a new relationship, after the referendum, if they won. And that it would "take as long as it takes". That reality seems to be settling in now.

Plus, it's not even a legally binding referendum.

smjm

Inquitus wrote: »

I was born in the UK and spent the first 20 years of my life living there, born to an Irish mother with only an Irish Passport and an British father. I have both an Irish and a British passport today, and have lived in Dublin for the past 17 years. My Kids were all born here, my wife is Irish. The kids are aged 12,10 and 6, are they entitled to a British Passport? currently they only hold Irish passports.

I think they qualify for British Citizenship by descent through you, but I'm not 100%. Check the link a few posts up. (Sorry, I'm too new to post links! )