Brexit Referendum Superthread

embraer170

smjm wrote: »

The Leave campaign was just that: a campaign. They couldn't and can't negotiate; only Parliament can do that, most of whose MP's wanted to stay in the EU! It is a fairly odd situation, but that's just the way it is. As I said, it was and is the same for Scotland. The Scottish government can't negotiate with the UK parliament until they have a mandate from the Scottish people - and they can't negotiate with the EU because they're not an independent nation. Nothing is simple in politics.

It certainly didn't stop the leave campaign from making some very detailed promises (lies!):

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding

Thirteen Government ministers and senior Conservatives have today committed that every region, group and recipient of EU funding will continue to get that money after a ‘Leave’ vote in the EU referendum. In an open letter, the signatories - who include Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Priti Patel - assure those people and organisations who currently receive money from the European Union that their funding is safe if we Vote Leave.

In the letter they say:

‘There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU - including universities, scientists, family farmers, regional funds, cultural organisations and others - will continue to do so while also ensuring that we save money that can be spent on our priorities.

Its dead Jim

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

So that's Cornwall and Yorkshire so far.

This is the true cost of Brexit. The British taxpayer will either have to shoulder the burden or the handouts have to stop.

London will have the money for it. I'm sure they'll be glad to help clean up the mess that the rest of the country created.

A Dub in Glasgo

whatever_ wrote: »

I followed the Referendum closely, and the only people who tried to suggest that the CTA would end were Remain scaremongers. Apart from that, the CTA was not a campaign issue. Both Leave Campaigns were very clear about their positions on immigration. So you are mistaken.

That is because most people in England (where this campaign was decided and led) have no fecking interest in the CTA as they have no idea it even exists

Inquitus

If there are any tariffs between the EU and the UK, in any deal that is negotiated, then there will have to be a hard border between the North and the South.

embraer170

The EU has appointed a lead negotiator for Brexit:
http://www.firstpost.com/world/belgian-didier-seeuws-to-head-eus-brexit-task-force-2856180.html

Meanwhile the British Commissioner (most senior British diplomat in Brussels) Lord Hill has resigned:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/uk-european-commissioner-jonathan-hill-quits-brexit

swampgas

Inquitus wrote: »

If there are any tariffs between the EU and the UK, in any deal that is negotiated, then there will have to be a hard border between the North and the South.

A lot of people have become so used to the lack of border controls that they forget that they are a relatively recent phenomenon, and that they were driven by the EU, and mostly derive from EU membership.

The phrase "you don't miss what you've got 'til it's gone" springs to mind.

Nody

smjm wrote: »

I did say it was a bit too simple!

But, out of interest, who do you think would object, and what to specifically?

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece, Spain, Czech Republic and Romania for starters over the lack of free movement for their people to work and welfare (remember those were all part of the ebil foreign people stealing jobs and were vehement opponents on it in how the Cameron deal was formed when trying to limit it).

Carry on free trade of goods and services will be an issue for France, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Poland etc. as they will see this as a chance to steal back manufacturing and jobs from London for the Finance cities and I could easily see Netherlands, Belgium and a few other countries blocking it for the same reason.

Then we come to questions of budget; all major countries who receive farming aid will want UK to keep paying for it so once again France, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc. would not be happy about the lack of money.

Jack Killian

Its dead Jim wrote: »

London will have the money for it. I'm sure they'll be glad to help clean up the mess that the rest of the country created.

Some could call that karma, given the financial industry's base on in London.

K-9

whatever_ wrote: »

We're leaving. The EU need to wake up to the fact that they cannot push us around any more !

They just want ye to get on with it then!

Seriously, why should they wait around because your PM has resigned?

murphaph

Polo_Mint wrote: »

The People were asked, Do you want to leave the EU.

They said yes by majority.

Unless they have went from a democracy to a dictatorship in 24hr then they will be leaving

Cameron's resignation could be seen to have annulled the referendum. He won't press the button. Who will do that? Will they do it without holding a general election first to ensure they have the mandate to push the button? The Brexiters assumed that Cameron would do it (he intimated he would) but now he won't. Remember the majority of the Tory party is pro remain so how will a Brexit PM get into the hot seat to push the button? Nothing is clear since Cameron resigned.

LiamoSail

I'm still in shock over this. Every young educated Brit must feel like they've been well and truly done over by the older generation, it really is sad to see

K-9

whatever_ wrote: »

Some people, like myself, may apply for an Irish passport, but I probably won't bother - it won't be necessary.
Scotland may go, but from an economic point of view, this is a good thing for England - they currently spend 12 billion sterling more than they raise in taxes and guess who pays for that (clue: not the EU). The oil price has fallen by 50% since their last referendum (and this will not plug the gap).

Where do you think Wales's money comes from anyway ? (clue: not the EU). And on that subject, we will save Port Talbot now we are unencumbered by EU regulations.

Some finance jobs will move from the City - probably some to Dublin and some to Frankfurt. This is a good thing all round. London (and the UK) needs less finance and more manufacturing (which will happen due to a lower pound and greater investment).

So your analysis is wrong. I see no downside. Now all we need to do is to persuade NI to leave ...

Well that's clear cut then, you're pro the break up of the UK then for some reason, money apparently.

LiamoSail

Also, do those who were so vocal about the unelected European bureaucrats have an issue with the fact that the UK will be taken out of Europe by an unelected PM and the decision ratified by an unelected Queen?

Inquitus

LiamoSail wrote: »

I'm still in shock over this. Every young educated Brit must feel like they've been well and truly done over by the older generation, it really is sad to see

Yep, it's a disaster for the youth of Britain, the people who will have to live with this decision for most of their lives, swayed by those already pensioned off, who's pensions it is up to the youth to provide for. The 16-18yo bracket have a a point, they were given no democratic voice in a decision that impacts them more than anyone else. If the UK follow through as it seems they must and leave the EU it will be 20-30 years before they can undo and revisit that decision you would think.

smjm

embraer170 wrote: »

It certainly didn't stop the leave campaign from making some very detailed promises (lies!):

[.url]voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding[./url]

Thirteen Government ministers and senior Conservatives have today committed that every region, group and recipient of EU funding will continue to get that money after a ‘Leave’ vote in the EU referendum. In an open letter, the signatories - who include Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Priti Patel - assure those people and organisations who currently receive money from the European Union that their funding is safe if we Vote Leave.

In the letter they say:

‘There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU - including universities, scientists, family farmers, regional funds, cultural organisations and others - will continue to do so while also ensuring that we save money that can be spent on our priorities.

Both sides said what they believe will be the outcome of leaving the EU. The leave campaign said that those currently receiving UK money, indirectly via the EU, will continue to do so. Cameron raised the spectre of war breaking out! Only the future will prove either side right or wrong.

murphaph

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

Inquitus

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

Referendums should never be held on complex issues, the point of a representative democracy is that you elect people to make complex decisions on your behalf with the assistance of the relevant experts in the area. Cameron took a huge gamble and lost, and I don't see any way this can be fixed now.

Referendums do have their place, Abortion, Gay Marriage and the like which are simple enough issues for all to understand and vote on, they do not belong as a means to decide complex issues such as Brexit and the like.

LiamoSail

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

I wonder how Tata steel workers in Wales that voted leave feel. They've probably voted themselves out of a job

swampgas

The feeling I get is that I don't think Boris or Gove know what to do - maybe they were bluffing and now that Brexit is actually upon them they seem to have gone to ground. If Boris was really keen on Brexit he would be all over the media pushing to get the ball rolling. The only politicians with any real enthusiasm for actually starting the negotiations seem to be Farage (obviously enough) and Jeremy Corbyn.

The mood music from the rest of the EU has changed abruptly. Now that Brexit has become real, the EU faces an existential threat. There is going to be some serious hardball. Cameron's antics have destroyed goodwill so much I wouldn't be surprised to see the boot go in.

No wonder both Cameron and the UK's EU commissioner Lord Hill both resigned - they both know that the UK will be trying to bargain from a position of weakness, with 27 other countries, all with their own agendas, and many with scores to settle. I suspect Boris et al know this, and are looking for ways to wriggle out of the hole they've dug for themselves.

Interesting times.

cml387

swampgas wrote: »

The feeling I get is that I don't think Boris or Gove know what to do - maybe they were bluffing and now that Brexit is actually upon them they seem to have gone to ground. If Boris was really keen on Brexit he would be all over the media pushing to get the ball rolling. The only politicians with any real enthusiasm for actually starting the negotiations seem to be Farage (obviously enough) and Jeremy Corbyn.

The mood music from the rest of the EU has changed abruptly. Now that Brexit has become real, the EU faces an existential threat. There is going to be some serious hardball. Cameron's antics have destroyed goodwill so much I wouldn't be surprised to see the boot go in.

No wonder both Cameron and the UK's EU commissioner Lord Hill both resigned - they both know that the UK will be trying to bargain from a position of weakness, with 27 other countries, all with their own agendas, and many with scores to settle. I suspect Boris et al know this, and are looking for ways to wriggle out of the hole they've dug for themselves.

Interesting times.

I remember at one stage very early in the campaign, possibly even last year,that a "leave" vote would not be used as an actual decision to leave but a stick to wave during negotiations with Europe for more concessions.
Once the negotiations were completed another vote could be taken.

I know it sound ludicrous and was mocked at the time but I have idea that Boris himself floated the idea.

anothernight

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

The prevailing belief among older people in my area (~50+) is that those who voted leave must now be regretting it. I don't know if it's true or how these people voted, though. I work weekends in a local hotel and we had a few big (local) groups in for lunch today. They were all talking about the referendum, and I overheard a lot of them saying that a re-run would give a majority remain. Most of these people were affluent retirees and businesspeople though, from an area that voted remain, so there's their bias.


The prevailing belief among younger people in my area (20-40) is that their futures have been sold by pensioners and that they might be out of a job relatively soon.

Nody

cml387 wrote: »

I remember at one stage very early in the campaign, possibly even last year,that a "leave" vote would not be used as an actual decision to leave but a stick to wave during negotiations with Europe for more concessions.
Once the negotiations were completed another vote could be taken.

I know it sound ludicrous and was mocked at the time but I have idea that Boris himself floated the idea.

The more I hear out of the politicians on leave the more I think this is the route they will go; go back to EU, try to get a better deal and then proclaim a new vote is required due to the new deal (as the vote was based on the old deal).

swampgas

cml387 wrote: »

I remember at one stage very early in the campaign, possibly even last year,that a "leave" vote would not be used as an actual decision to leave but a stick to wave during negotiations with Europe for more concessions.
Once the negotiations were completed another vote could be taken.

I know it sound ludicrous and was mocked at the time but I have idea that Boris himself floated the idea.

Interesting - and insane. The last thing the EU needs is a succession of members holding exit referendums as levers to get special treatment.

I suspect that the UK is very close to having burned its bridges with the EU, if it hasn't done so already. There's only so much of this bull**** that the rest of the EU will tolerate.

Inquitus

Watching the BBC News you get the feeling if the vote was rerun tomorrow it would be for Remain, too many people making protest votes against the government, expecting Remain to win and now shítting themselves.....

Harry Palmr

LiamoSail wrote: »

I'm still in shock over this. Every young educated Brit must feel like they've been well and truly done over by the older generation, it really is sad to see

Only 30% of the dopes actually voted, not that clever.

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

Buyers remorse will be rampant soon among those with sufficient self awareness.

whatever_

Inquitus wrote: »

whatever_ wrote: »

Some people, like myself, may apply for an Irish passport, but I probably won't bother - it won't be necessary.
Scotland may go, but from an economic point of view, this is a good thing for England - they currently spend 12 billion sterling more than they raise in taxes and guess who pays for that (clue: not the EU). The oil price has fallen by 50% since their last referendum (and this will not plug the gap).

Where do you think Wales's money comes from anyway ? (clue: not the EU). And on that subject, we will save Port Talbot now we are unencumbered by EU regulations.

Some finance jobs will move from the City - probably some to Dublin and some to Frankfurt. This is a good thing all round. London (and the UK) needs less finance and more manufacturing (which will happen due to a lower pound and greater investment).

So your analysis is wrong. I see no downside. Now all we need to do is to persuade NI to leave ...

Port Talbot will be long closed before an exit from the EU is concluded. British manufacturing was lost long ago and is not about to undergo a renaissance on an exit from the EU. Leaving the EU is also not going to stop China dumping steel on the UK market anyways, which is the root cause of the domestic steel industries woes.

Any trade deal reached as mentioned above will bring with it a requirement to accept EU regulations, anything manufactured for sale to the EU will have to continue to meet European standards.

Port Talbot will not be closed. The British manufacturing sector is still around the 10th biggest in the world and employs 2 million people. Yes we can stop China dumping steel in Britain when we are free from the EU, we will place tariffs on their steel if necessary.

We can trade with whoever we want. We are leaving - stop trying to tell us what we can and cannot do.

K-9

LiamoSail wrote: »

I wonder how Tata steel workers in Wales that voted leave feel. They've probably voted themselves out of a job

Apparently Brexit will make Britain a manufacturing power again.

Germany is a manufacturing power because it suffered wage stagnation for years to compete with Eastern Europe rather than complain about the EU and immigration. That's what has to be done to make Britain competitive again but I don't think many who voted Brexit actually realise that.

LiamoSail

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Only 30% of the dopes actually voted, not that clever.

Is that 30% of the youth or 30% of educated youth?

Polo_Mint

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder just how many of the leave votes were protest votes against the government. I bet a lot of people are regretting their vote now tbh.

This is what happened alot

Even old people have said they wanted to give the Government a kick up the arse

You are going to see the real impact of the UK decision within the UK when the UK media start reporting the the EU has ALREADY assigned Didier Seeuws to setup the EU taskforce for Brexit.

The EU are starting now with the paperwork to remove the UK from the EU.

They will already have alot done before October

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

That's what has to be done to make Britain competitive again but I don't think many who voted Brexit actually realise that.

Was the "vote Remain for stagnant wages" campaign a vociferous one?