Brexit Referendum Superthread

whatever_

LiamoSail wrote: »

Harry Palmr wrote: »

30% of all under 30s I think it was. How many of them are intelligent is not for me to estimate though though one could argue the number was defined between 7 am and 10 pm on Thursday.

I was referring to the educated rather than intelligent. My point is that they'll suffer through this decision that they didn't take.

LiamoSail wrote: »

Harry Palmr wrote: »

30% of all under 30s I think it was. How many of them are intelligent is not for me to estimate though though one could argue the number was defined between 7 am and 10 pm on Thursday.

I was referring to the educated rather than intelligent. My point is that they'll suffer through this decision that they didn't take.

Ask the young people of Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland whether they are suffering (not the ones that are in the UK of course).

Nody

whatever_ wrote: »

Ask the young people of Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland whether they are suffering (not the ones that are in the UK of course).

Seeing how a lot of them are using EU to be able to go to another country and work; compared to not being able to do so with in EU? No, they are not suffering because of EU but because the politicians in their respective countries has not modernized the labor laws.

For example do you know why the youth employment is so high in Spain? Because if you hire someone and keep them on for more than 1 year they can basically not be fired no matter what. So people don't get permanent jobs and will simply be rotated around on temp contracts. Who gets the worst impact of this? The people who are new on the market (i.e. youths). Add in the courts stating that the parents HAVE to support their children at age of 25+ if they can't be bothered to get a job does not help... Or if we got to Italy a company has to pay the full salary to all mothers for 2+ years of maternity leave which means companies don't want to hire women in case they might get pregnant.

LiamoSail

K-9 wrote: »

Was just saying that on the AH thread. What odds a Welsh independence vote in 10 years time?

Withouth the EU, they'll need London to pay to keep them in the style they've become accustomed to. Welsh Indapendents would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for Christmas. I wouldn't have thought the were stupid enough to back something like that, however after seeing how they voted on Brexit, I wouldn't put it past them

LiamoSail

whatever_ wrote: »

Ask the young people of Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland whether they are suffering (not the ones that are in the UK of course).

The UK are in a different position to us, it's not a comparable situation

joseph brand

I just found out that ALL my relatives living in England voted to leave. They're all Irish immigrants. My auntie and uncle still have their Irish passports (never bothered getting British ones).

My mother told me that when asked why they were voting to leave they just kept mentioning 'immigrants'. The hypocrisy of some people. The terms 'closing the door behind you', or, 'pulling up the ladder after you' spring to my mind.

That's it. They're cut. :mad:

whatever_

LiamoSail wrote: »

whatever_ wrote: »

Apparently Britai

Britain has (roughly) the 10th largest manufacturing sector in the World. It employs 2 million people. A lower pound will stimulate manufacturing exports. Britain like Germany is a country that is pro-immigration. Both the Leave Campaign (and more importantly) the Conservative Government are pro-immigration. Don't under-estimate the collective wisdom of the electorate - there is widespread support for the apprenticeships and jobs that would be created by a lower pound - particularly among the people who voted Leave.

The flaw there is the difficulties exporters will soon face trading in the EU.

No they won't. Even without a trade deal EU imports attract an average 3%. The pound could increase from where it is now and we would still be quids in. But that ignores Britain's 8 Billion pounds a month trade deficit with the EU, which means that Britain has a fair hand in negotiations.

Nody

whatever_ wrote: »

No they won't. Even without a trade deal EU imports attract an average 3%. The pound could increase from where it is now and we would still be quids in. But that ignores Britain's 8 Billion pounds a month trade deficit with the EU, which means that Britain has a fair hand in negotiations.

You are aware that EU has 1.500 billion euros of export with US and China respectively yearly right? Sorry but 8 billion a month is a drop in the bucket overall to the total trade in EU. Do EU give UK a special deal for 60 billion trade or do they focus on developing the 1.500 billion trade with China (which has a deficit in the 200 billion region)?

Suryavarman

whatever_ wrote: »

I didn't disagree with this. I said that both the Brexit campaign and the Conservative government are pro-Immigration. Which is of course, true.

It clearly isn't true.

K-9

Nody wrote: »

Seeing how a lot of them are using EU to be able to go to another country and work; compared to not being able to do so with in EU? No, they are not suffering because of EU but because the politicians in their respective countries has not modernized the labor laws.

For example do you know why the youth employment is so high in Spain? Because if you hire someone and keep them on for more than 1 year they can basically not be fired no matter what. So people don't get permanent jobs and will simply be rotated around on temp contracts. Who gets the worst impact of this? The people who are new on the market (i.e. youths). Add in the courts stating that the parents HAVE to support their children at age of 25+ if they can't be bothered to get a job does not help... Or if we got to Italy a company has to pay the full salary to all mothers for 2+ years of maternity leave which means companies don't want to hire women in case they might get pregnant.

Wage stagnation and youth unemployment are hardly EU phenomenon, the US, Japan, hell even Germany faces these problems and there are various factors.

Short term contracts as you say, Globalism, pursuit of profit above everything else, decline of unions etc. Brexit doesn't make these problems any easier to deal with.

Inquitus

K-9 wrote: »

Wage stagnation and youth unemployment are hardly EU phenomenon, the US, Japan, hell even Germany faces these problems and there are various factors.

Short term contracts as you say, Globalism, pursuit of profit above everything else, decline of unions etc. Brexit doesn't make these problems any easier to deal with.

Agreed, the EU is far more protective of workers than the Tories will ever be unfettered by EU regulation.

K-9

Nody wrote: »

You are aware that EU has 1.500 billion euros of export with US and China respectively yearly right? Sorry but 8 billion a month is a drop in the bucket overall to the total trade in EU. Do EU give UK a special deal for 60 billion trade or do they focus on developing the 1.500 billion trade with China (which has a deficit in the 200 billion region)?

People seem to get obsessed with this 5th (is it 6th now?) largest economy thing, sure Germany is bigger, France not far behind and Spain and Italy are large economies as well. Britain needs the worlds largest trading bloc, simple as.

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

Wage stagnation and youth unemployment are hardly EU phenomenon, the US, Japan, hell even Germany faces these problems and there are various factors.

Short term contracts as you say, Globalism, pursuit of profit above everything else, decline of unions etc. Brexit doesn't make these problems any easier to deal with.

Would you agree though that youth unemployment and wage growth is faring better in the UK than in the other EU big beasts?

And further to that, what are our presidents; Junker & Tusk doing to fix it?
I'm increasingly becoming unsure what being in the EU is supposed to mean wrt helping those at the bottom.


Anyway..... the Spectator are not buying into the 'sky is falling in' narrative... at least not yet

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-worse-europes-economy/
(view incognito to defeat paywall)

Suryavarman

K-9 wrote: »

Wage stagnation and youth unemployment are hardly EU phenomenon, the US, Japan, hell even Germany faces these problems and there are various factors.

Short term contracts as you say, Globalism, pursuit of profit above everything else, decline of unions etc. Brexit doesn't make these problems any easier to deal with.

Wage stagnation is a result of economic stagnation. None of the factors you mentioned have any impact on the matter.

ancapailldorcha

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Would you agree though that youth unemployment and wage growth is faring better in the UK than in the other EU big beasts?

I'd put this down to more liberal employment legislation than anything else.

Nody

Btw the petition for a new vote is up in two million signatures and counting; gives Boris more arguments for a second round of negotiations and new vote (if that's his plan).

robindch

Nody wrote: »

Btw the petition for a new vote is up in two million signatures and counting

Two and a half million last time I looked - for a laugh, my kid and I timed it earlier this evening - it was doing between fifty and one hundred signatures per second.

Nody wrote: »

; gives Boris more arguments for a second round of negotiations and new vote (if that's his plan).

At the moment, neither Boris nor any of the other leave.eu nutters have the slightest clue what to do. Same as Cameron and Osborne who have sunk from view with indecent haste.

As for Boris and F*rage, there is no plan B, nor is there a plan A. And there never was.

This was a national leap into the dark with eyes closed, holding hands with a bunch of deceitful nutters who shouldn't be let run the municipal dog pound.

Polo_Mint

What are the chances of Marine Le Pen winning the French election do people think?

CMOTDibbler

whatever_ wrote: »

No they won't. Even without a trade deal EU imports attract an average 3%. The pound could increase from where it is now and we would still be quids in. But that ignores Britain's 8 Billion pounds a month trade deficit with the EU, which means that Britain has a fair hand in negotiations.

I wouldn't doubt for a minute that the EU will want to continue trade with Britain post Brexit. The question in my mind is how much of British exports to the EU are from EU owned or other foreign owned manufacturers who do so because of Britain's membership of the EU.

And how much of that will continue post Brexit.

K-9

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Would you agree though that youth unemployment and wage growth is faring better in the UK than in the other EU big beasts?

And further to that, what are our presidents; Junker & Tusk doing to fix it?
I'm increasingly becoming unsure what being in the EU is supposed to mean wrt helping those at the bottom.


Anyway..... the Spectator are not buying into the 'sky is falling in' narrative... at least not yet

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-worse-europes-economy/
(view incognito to defeat paywall)

A lot of this new employment seems to be low paid and at lower service level type jobs. Maybe that's the new economic reality but I don't think that is what many voted to leave for.

swampgas

robindch wrote: »

[...] Same as Cameron and Osborne who have sunk from view with indecent haste.

The tabloids seem to think his days are numbered ... or perhaps they're trying to engineer his exit.

Daily Fail (among others)

K-9

Suryavarman wrote: »

Wage stagnation is a result of economic stagnation. None of the factors you mentioned have any impact on the matter.

Debatable! Wage stagnation is going on longer than economic stagnation though in many developed countries so it would appear there isn't as much as a link as you make out. It's a big part obviously but there are other things going on.

The 1% people go on about but similar is happening with corporates, the biggest companies are getting richer and richer too.

Patser

swampgas wrote: »

The tabloids seem to think his days are numbered ... or perhaps they're trying to engineer his exit.

Daily Fail (among others)

Brilliant article below from the Guardian, suggesting that it's Boris that's really in trouble

https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/746825028197548036

K-9

swampgas wrote: »

The tabloids seem to think his days are numbered ... or perhaps they're trying to engineer his exit.

Daily Fail (among others)

The last 2 budgets seem to have put a stop to his rise, mostly self inflicted by the looks of it.

Francie Barrett

embraer170 wrote: »

Not looking good for Farage:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/25/furious-nigel-farage-to-take-control-of-britains-exit-from-the-e/?WT.mc_id=e_DM132324&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FPM_New_AEM_Recipient_2016_06_25&utm_campaign=DM132324

I personally loathe Nigel Farage and his opinions would be the complete antithesis of my own.

However, for the Leave campaign to jettison him, when he a clear has a mandate to be at the table for the negotiations as to what follows is just breathtaking.

smjm

Patser wrote: »

Brilliant article below from the Guardian, suggesting that it's Boris that's really in trouble

The Guardian are also reporting on a Hilary Benn led coup to get rid of Corbyn.

theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/25/hilary-benn-jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-eu-referendum-brexit

ancapailldorcha

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I personally loathe Nigel Farage and his opinions would be the complete antithesis of my own.

However, for the Leave campaign to jettison him, when he a clear has a mandate to be at the table for the negotiations as to what follows is just breathtaking.

He doesn't though. He's not an MP and was rejected last year. He has no mandate whatsoever to be there. Douglas Carswell? Perhaps. Nigel certainly does not. He's an MEP and not a particularly good one at that.

my friend

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

He's an MEP and not a particularly good one at that.

So tell us , who's a great MEP and what are your metrics?

ancapailldorcha

Tim Farron has pledged to ignore the result when campaigning for the next GE starts and keep the UK in the EU as the Leave campaign was based on lies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-result-lib-dems-remain-liberal-democrats-live-policy-stay-leave-a7103186.html

ancapailldorcha

my friend wrote: »

So tell us , who's a great MEP and what are your metrics?

One who refrains from shouting petty insults at people in the parliament and attends meetings.

my friend

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

One who refrains from shouting petty insults at people in the parliament and attends meetings.

So all they have to do is the above and that makes them a great MEP?

Wow, your standards don't demand a whole lot then.