Brexit Referendum Superthread

Tigerandahalf

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Half the Labour shadow cabinet are going to resign. Corbyn remains defiant. This is pretty awful for the Labour party.

It is probably needed. They need to rid the party of the centrists. If Corbyn can clear the decks and get his people in before a general election is called they could do well. Either that or the next person after Corbyn will have had the dirty work done for them.

Labour need to sort themselves out as either Remain or Leave. It seems Corbyn might be flipping to the Leave side. He has already said Labour need to recognise that a large part of their vote are against further immigration.

Very likely that we will see an election before Article 50 is invoked. Parties will want to get a mandate before pulling the trigger.

LiamoSail

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

What principles did he stick to?

His long held desire to be out of the EU, or him doing a bad attempt at pretending that wasn't his opinion?

Principals my hole. Corbyn threw it, he abused the democratic process by feigning support for remain and throwing it ny not leading an effective or interested Labour campaign.

Cameron is rightly being criticised for this mess but more blame should be apportioned to Corbyn IMO given how the traditional labour vote swung

whatever_

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Half the Labour shadow cabinet are going to resign. Corbyn remains defiant. This is pretty awful for the Labour party.

It is probably needed. They need to rid the party of the centrists. If Corbyn can clear the decks and get his people in before a general election is called they could do well. Either that or the next person after Corbyn will have had the dirty work done for them.

Labour need to sort themselves out as either Remain or Leave. It seems Corbyn might be flipping to the Leave side. He has already said Labour need to recognise that a large part of their vote are against further immigration.

Very likely that we will see an election before Article 50 is invoked. Parties will want to get a mandate before pulling the trigger.

There is a big opportunity for Labour here. It's Corbyn's last chance of power really. He was honest to say that he is about 75% in favour of the EU. If they re-engage with their traditional voters (and this does not mean being anti-immigration) they could easily win the next election. Boris / Theresa May will have the difficult job.

An Election before article 50 ? A general election ? definitely not !

CMOTDibbler

LiamoSail wrote: »

Principals my hole. Corbyn threw it, he abused the democratic process by feigning support for remain and throwing it ny not leading an effective or interested Labour campaign.

Cameron is rightly being criticised for this mess but more blame should be apportioned to Corbyn IMO given how the traditional labour vote swung

Corbyn's ideology of ant-globalisation is totally at odds with reality. Even if the EU broke up completely tomorrow it would make no difference. Except of course that large trading blocs like China and the US would have a free hand to dominate the world.

There's no putting that genie back in the bottle, only cutting your own throat* to make a statement.

*Pun on my user name intended

Tigerandahalf

whatever_ wrote: »

An Election before article 50 ? A general election, definitely not !

Why not?
The Conservatives have no leader. If the Remain win out as leader they will not want to invike Article 50 and will thus call an election to get a mandate on perhaps reversing it.

If Boris wins out will he want to invoke it without getting a mandate first?


It is funny that 52% voted to Leave despite both major parties advocating a Remain vote.
How many voters would have taken the party line?
Any party that ignores that 52% would be foolish.

Wanderer78

CMOTDibbler wrote:

Corbyn's ideology of ant-globalisation is totally at odds with reality. Even if the EU broke up completely tomorrow it would make no difference. Except of course that large trading blocs like China and the US would have a free hand to dominate the world.

I'd be terrified if the eu collapsed right now. I'd have to agree with yanis varoufakis on this one if the eu collapsed, the real monsters would be here then

whatever_

swampgas wrote: »

embraer170 wrote: »

Depends who you want to believe. Some European law professors have said it's certainly vague enough to be interpreted in different ways.

However, a Council spokesperson came out and said the notification is a formal process:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36631518

Thanks for the link.

However how long can the British government put off invoking article 50 without the EU and/or the leave voters getting cranky? 6 months? A year? Years?

The UK comes across as rudderless since Cameron's resignation - he has abdicated responsibility for the result of a referendum that he was instrumental in creating. His failure is complete

It is the people who called this election (some of us have been demanding it for decades) not David Cameron. He was a good PM and was well regarded by most. We don't need to dance to the EUs tune anymore. Everybody needs to calm down now really and take stock.

mansize

IDS climbdown on the 350bn to NHS on Andrew Marr

Cosmo Kramer

swampgas wrote: »

Hmmm ... Looking at this, there are some papers still in favour - the Sunday Express, the Sunday People, the Sunday Mirror.

And many of the others are focusing on Tory in-fighting rather than analysing the result.

To be honest out of that lot only the Express are holding a clear pro-brexit position. And they're so little Englander that they make the Mail look like a socialist publication in comparison. The likes of the Mail have suddenly become very neutral in their output, this might not end well for some of these publications.

In any case you'd wonder what the future holds for the print media. Next to nobody under 40 buys these papers or pays any regard to what they say about political matters anyway. While this week has shown how much power they still wield over a certain section of British society, the trend among younger, more intelligent, voters has long veered away from their nonsense.

Back on topic - can a new Conservative leader achieve Brexit without either another vote on it or a general election? I doubt it. Would another Brexit vote achieve the same outcome? Again I doubt it - it would more than likely be a landslide the other way as reality hits home for the leave voters. And can a heavily right leaning Conservative party led by Johnson and Gove win another general election against a post-Corbyn Labour movement (he's as good as gone this morning)? No way, they are quickly being painted as the villains in all this and this view will only increase as the various factions of the leave camp realise they won't get any progress on their voting reasons, be it immigration, the NHS or personal wealth.

In short - at this point I just don't see Brexit happening.

A Dub in Glasgo

Informative document

EU Select Committee
The process of leaving the EU

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf

whatever_

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

whatever_ wrote: »

An Election before article 50 ? A general election, definitely not !

Why not?
The Conservatives have no leader. If the Remain win out as leader they will not want to invike Article 50 and will thus call an election to get a mandate on perhaps reversing it.

If Boris wins out will he want to invoke it without getting a mandate first?


It is funny that 52% voted to Leave despite both major parties advocating a Remain vote.
How many voters would have taken the party line?
Any party that ignores that 52% would be foolish.

I see your point. The Conservative Party will not attempt to railroad the democratic process. They will vote a leader who is prepared to lead the exit negotiations. It sounds like it will be Johnson or May. May is an acceptable choice because although technically on the Remain side (a loyalty thing) she is well known to have been "conflicted" and did not participate in the Campaign. I would be happy to see her as the next PM. I see what you are saying but your scenario will not arise. I agree with your 52% argument - there is a big opportunity for Labour at the next election.

Bob24

swampgas wrote: »

The UK comes across as rudderless since Cameron's resignation - he has abdicated responsibility for the result of a referendum that he was instrumental in creating. His failure is complete.

Exactly. It was utterly irresponsible to trigger a referundum whereby one of the options offered implied so many changes and challenges for the country, and to be campaigning on the side of the status quo. If a leader is to trigger on a referendum, they should ideally campaign for whichever option involves changes and in any case stand ready to implement those changes - otherwise the country has to be left in limbo should that option be chosen.

A Dub in Glasgo

whatever_ wrote: »

I see your point. The Conservative Party will not attempt to railroad the democratic process. They will vote a leader who is prepared to lead the exit negotiations. It sounds like it will be Johnson or May. May is an acceptable choice because although technically on the Remain side (a loyalty thing) she is well known to have been "conflicted" and did not participate in the Campaign. I would be happy to see her as the next PM. I see what you are saying but your scenario will not arise. I agree with your 52% argument - there is a big opportunity for Labour at the next election.

I would be very surprised if May took on the poison chalice of starting article 50 and leading the UK down that path

Bob24

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Why not?
The Conservatives have no leader. If the Remain win out as leader they will not want to invike Article 50 and will thus call an election to get a mandate on perhaps reversing it.

If Boris wins out will he want to invoke it without getting a mandate first?


It is funny that 52% voted to Leave despite both major parties advocating a Remain vote.
How many voters would have taken the party line?
Any party that ignores that 52% would be foolish.

If an election was triggered, I think UKIP would be the best positioned and it could blow-up other parties. They are the only major party which clearly campaigned on the side of the majority of the voters. Both the Tories and Labour would be struggling with which line to adopt and how not to alienate the part of their electorate which is on the other line.

swampgas

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

To be honest out of that lot only the Express are holding a clear pro-brexit position. And they're so little Englander that they make the Mail look like a socialist publication in comparison. The likes of the Mail have suddenly become very neutral in their output, this might not end well for some of these publications.

In any case you'd wonder what the future holds for the print media. Next to nobody under 40 buys these papers or pays any regard to what they say about political matters anyway. While this week has shown how much power they still wield over a certain section of British society, the trend among younger, more intelligent, voters has long veered away from their nonsense.

Back on topic - can a new Conservative leader achieve Brexit without either another vote on it or a general election? I doubt it. Would another Brexit vote achieve the same outcome? Again I doubt it - it would more than likely be a landslide the other way as reality hits home for the leave voters. And can a heavily right leaning Conservative party led by Johnson and Gove win another general election against a post-Corbyn Labour movement (he's as good as gone this morning)? No way, they are quickly being painted as the villains in all this and this view will only increase as the various factions of the leave camp realise they won't get any progress on their voting reasons, be it immigration, the NHS or personal wealth.

In short - at this point I just don't see Brexit happening.

I agree with much of that. It would be interesting to know how much of the age divide in the vote is down to the way news is consumed across demographics - papers for older people, the internet for younger ones.

Whether Brexit happens or not, significant damage is done. Can the UK really become a willing EU member? It would require a change of cultural attitude as well as a change of political attitude.

embraer170

whatever_ wrote: »

It is the people who called this election (some of us have been demanding it for decades) not David Cameron. He was a good PM and was well regarded by most. We don't need to dance to the EUs tune anymore. Everybody needs to calm down now really and take stock.

So what plan would you propose?

Cosmo Kramer

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

It is probably needed. They need to rid the party of the centrists. If Corbyn can clear the decks and get his people in before a general election is called they could do well.

Not going to happen, the person leaving will be Corbyn - the centrists will now retake control of the party. As much as there is no hope for a Conservative party going down the right wing route, a left wing Labour Party has no chance either. Whichever party reclaims the centre ground first will gain control, as that is where every UK election in the last 20+ years has been won and lost. Particularly in the wake of a shock EU vote, the centre ground is more available and important than ever.

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would be very surprised if May took on the poison chalice of starting article 50 and leading the UK down that path

May straddled the fence for a reason.

Conservative Home polls members every so often.

May fares quite well amongst the rank and file.

Tigerandahalf

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Not going to happen, the person leaving will be Corbyn - the centrists will now retake control of the party. As much as there is no hope for a Conservative party going down the right wing route, a left wing Labour Party has no chance either. Whichever party reclaims the centre ground first will gain control, as that is where every UK election in the last 20+ years has been won and lost. Particularly in the wake of a shock EU vote, the centre ground is more available and important than ever.

But the centre ground is no longer where the votes are. Look across Europe and it is right wing and left wing parties that are hoovering up votes. Huge youth unemployment across Europe. It just a case of who wins out - far right or far left.

CMOTDibbler

Meanwhile Nigel is getting his excuses in early:

There’s nothing new here,” he told the Sunday Telegraph. “I think we are going into a mild recession anyway, completely regardless of Brexit. Our growth forecasts are down. Our public-sector borrowing is still not under control at all and everyone forgets that sterling is in a bear market, declining since July 2014.

Bob24

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Not going to happen, the person leaving will be Corbyn - the centrists will now retake control of the party. As much as there is no hope for a Conservative party going down the right wing route, a left wing Labour Party has no chance either. Whichever party reclaims the centre ground first will gain control, as that is where every UK election in the last 20+ years has been won and lost. Particularly in the wake of a shock EU vote, the centre ground is more available and important than ever.

European politics are changing though and not seeing it would be a strategic mistake.

Besides Brexit, see the Austian presidential election a few weeks ago. Both historical center parties which have shared power for the past decades were eliminated in the first round, and the so-called populist right almost got elected.

whatever_

Polo_Mint wrote: »

sink wrote: »

They were under a legal obligation to be balanced (BBC and CH4 anyway not sure about the others), they could not be more hostile to one side than the other.

Looking at the front of the papers tomorrow, all of the papers are headlining the shit hitting the fan in the UK.

None are mentioning any positives.

Same with all the news channels ive seen over the past 2 days.

You are left now with Leave Campaign backtracking, fights within the main parties, Remain campaign looking for a re-run, and all of the media saying the UK is fucked.

And all this followed by the EU telling the UK to GTFO

Even in an amicable divorce, there is a bit of drama.

Labour need to re-engage with their electorate. The Conservative's need a new Leader. The political parties need to readjust to the new reality.

There has been some instability in the markets (as expected) and doubtless there will be more, but none of the massive crashes that we used to see twenty years ago.

Junket has been put back in his box. He really needs to stop trying to tell us what to do.

The SNP have been put back in their box by the EU. I don't see any enthusiasm in Europe to take on their 12Bn pounds a year budget deficit. Economically, English people have no problem with them leaving - politically it would be a bit embarrassing.

It's all good really. Compare this with the struggles for Independence elsewhere - this one has been supported by the majority of the people and very little blood has been shed.

Cosmo Kramer

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

But the centre ground is no longer where the votes are. Look across Europe and it is right wing and left wing parties that are hoovering up votes. Huge youth unemployment across Europe. It just a case of who wins out - far right or far left.

The centre ground is always where the votes are when you're dealing with a first past the post electoral system as is used in the UK. Who are the left wing in England going to vote for other than Labour? There is no other show in town for them. On the right there is UKIP but they have consistently failed to make progress in general elections - one seat per constituency just doesn't work for them. It's the very reason Cameron never needed to promise an EU referendum to begin with, UKIP's votes will never transfer into seats because of the electoral system in place here.

In the end whichever of the two parties best harnesses the centre ground without completely alienating their more polarised voters will win out. The centre is where Blair won three elections and where Cameron won two elections. It's where the next election will be won as well.

pablomakaveli

Bob24 wrote: »

It would probably give them a short term boost in terms of voters who are not happy with the referendum results, but at the same time they will have people asking them if the word democrats in Liberal Democrats means the same as democratic in Democratic People's Republic of Korea. I don't think it would end well for them.

Well not really. If they won a majority in an election as a result they could take that as a mandate from the people to do so.

Bob24

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Well not really. If they won a majority in an election as a result they could take that as a mandate from the people to do so.

Do you really see them getting a majority?

Tigerandahalf

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

The centre ground is always where the votes are when you're dealing with a first past the post electoral system as is used in the UK. Who are the left wing in England going to vote for other than Labour? There is no other show in town for them. On the right there is UKIP but they have consistently failed to make progress in general elections - one seat per constituency just doesn't work for them. It's the very reason Cameron never needed to promise an EU referendum to begin with, UKIP's votes will never transfer into seats because of the electoral system in place here.

In the end whichever of the two parties best harnesses the centre ground without completely alienating their more polarised voters will win out. The centre is where Blair won three elections and where Cameron won two elections. It's where the next election will be won as well.

I think that ignores Labour voters transferring their vote to the Tories because they were more pro Brexit and likely to call a referendum on it.

Not everyone is a dyed in the wool Labour or Tory supporter.

When the economy is doing well and people are happy politics moves towards the centre. For the last 10 years we are seeing the opposite.

Far right in France under Le Pen
Far Left in Italy under Beppi
Far left in Spain making ground
Far right in Holland

I think a lot of young unemployed or underemployed people are graduates and perhaps think themselves above a union or a workers' party. How so many of them can be pro Europe when they are being rightly screwed is surprising.

pablomakaveli

Bob24 wrote: »

Do you really see them getting a majority?

With Labour and the Tories tearing themselves apart at the minute I wouldnt rule anything out.

Bob24

pablomakaveli wrote: »

With Labour and the Tories tearing themselves apart at the minute I wouldnt rule anything out.

Don't forget UKIP. If there is an election they will gain greatly.

Polo_Mint

whatever_ wrote: »

Even in an amicable divorce, there is a bit of drama.

Labour need to re-engage with their electorate. The Conservative's need a new Leader. The political parties need to readjust to the new reality.

There has been some instability in the markets (as expected) and doubtless there will be more, but none of the massive crashes that we used to see twenty years ago.

Junket has been put back in his box. He really needs to stop trying to tell us what to do.

The SNP have been put back in their box by the EU. I don't see any enthusiasm in Europe to take on their 12Bn pounds a year budget deficit. Economically, English people have no problem with them leaving - politically it would be a bit embarrassing.

It's all good really. Compare this with the struggles for Independence elsewhere - this one has been supported by the majority of the people and very little blood has been shed.

I know you are putting up a brave face saying " Sure it will be grand"

Its really not

Suryavarman

K-9 wrote: »

Debatable! Wage stagnation is going on longer than economic stagnation though in many developed countries so it would appear there isn't as much as a link as you make out. It's a big part obviously but there are other things going on.

The 1% people go on about but similar is happening with corporates, the biggest companies are getting richer and richer too.

Long run wage stagnation is, for the most part, a myth. It isn't occurring. What is usually cited as an example of wage stagnation is usually and example of poor measurement.