Brexit Referendum Superthread

Patser

smjm wrote: »

'Tata Steel near deal to save Port Talbot plant despite Brexit vote'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/26/tata-steel-near-deal-to-save-port-talbot-plant-despite-brexit

Hopefully a sign that cool-headed business pragmatism will triumph over hot-headed bureaucratic idealism?

Tata steel deal stalls as banks and investment groups stop to reassess everything in wake of Brexit. Thousands of jobs now back in the mix.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-36634654?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120&link_location=live-reporting-story

embraer170

whatever_ wrote: »

and bear in mind, after forty years or so, this is how far the EU has got on trade deals:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

Not a pretty picture.

So if it took 40 years for the EU to negotiate that much, how is the UK going to manage a miracle in the short term?

And trade deals are not all about Free Trade Agreements.

CMOTDibbler

Conas wrote: »

In today's world a financial crisis is when people lose some, if not all the wealth they have hoarded. Instead of not being able to buy a 2016 Ford Focus, a person may settle for a 2006 Ford Focus. Instead of an Xbox One, you may settle for an Xbox 360. That's what people nowadays consider a 'crisis', Most people in this country would never get into financial crisis, if they got rid of their 'keeping up with the joneses', mindset.
In reality we have never had it so easy, in comparison to what it was like in the 1800s, and early 1900s.

If ever I saw a post that demonstrates the disconnect between the haves and the have nots, this is it.

Sam Russell

embraer170 wrote: »

So if it took 40 years for the EU to negotiate that much, how is the UK going to manage a miracle in the short term?

And trade deals are not all about Free Trade Agreements.

It is easy to negotiate a quick deal - you just give everything away and take what you are offered.

Simples.

Redbishop

long range shooter wrote: »

Then howcome many others are looking to get out now then.
Holland,Sweden,Denmark,Finland and Italy.
Are they not happy in the EU?

Probably exacerbate Britains problem in the long run.
This will be made to look like a disaster for the dissenting countries.

Polo_Mint

FTSE 250 this morning

CMOTDibbler

long range shooter wrote: »

And EU isnt part of any wars today outside its borders?

EU declares war on Norway

What wars are the EU involved in and with who's army?

Polo_Mint

Polo_Mint wrote: »

FTSE 250 this morning

Yeah, but when you change the frame to a 12-month window, it looks decidedly less dramatic.

It's significant. But it's not a cataclysmic event.

your graph doesn't have the most recent datapoint.

(In fact, it's not even the FTSE 250)

Polo_Mint

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Yeah, but when you change the frame to a 12-month window, it looks decidedly less dramatic.

It's significant. But it's not a cataclysmic event.

In the Months before it was based on people thinking Remain would win people were investing.

Now that it is clear, Its falling

Polo_Mint

Ireland 10-Year Bond Yield Overview price dropping which is a good thing

Suryavarman

whatever_ wrote: »

This after three days :

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/683117/US-and-Canada-lead-promises-to-maintain-trade-relations-with-Britain-outside-the-EU

and bear in mind, after forty years or so, this is how far the EU has got on trade deals:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

Not a pretty picture. When the EU sit down to do a trade deal, typically 20 or so of the 28 are only concerned with protecting their own domestic industries. The EU is a dysfunctional and pointless organisation that is well past its sell by date.

In three days the UK has made zero progress on the trade deal front. A couple of politicians saying they like a trade deal isn't the same as having an actual trade deal.

The number of trade agreements involving the EU seems to be higher than deals involving the US.

Polo_Mint

Polo_Mint wrote: »

In the Months before it was based on people thinking Remain would win people were investing.

Now that it is clear, Its falling

No, just no. You cannot ascribe every twist and turn in the FTSE to one variable.

That wasn't even the point. When discussing the market response to Brexit, it should be an offence punishable by public lashings, to rely on a five-day frame.

Even mild bumps can look catastrophic in a short frame. I'm just trying to put things in context.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

No, just no. You cannot ascribe every twist and turn in the FTSE to one variable.

That wasn't even the point. When discussing the market response to Brexit, it should be an offence punishable by public lashings, to rely on a five-day frame.

Even mild bumps can look catastrophic in a short frame. I'm just trying to put things in context.

You posted the wrong graph though?

(I do agree with your message. Market shocks are not indicators of much other than paradigm changes)

LiamoSail

Conas wrote: »

When you listen to the Remain arguments for staying. It was all scaremongering over 'Money'. 'Hundreds of thousands of jobs could be lost, Billions of pounds to the UK economy', they shouted.
It goes to show you how truly money obsessed, and disgustingly selfish people in European and Western nations have become.

Because money, in respect of the tangible aspects the Governmennt control, is by far the most relevant aspect of the referendum.

Jobs will be lost, billions has already been wiped off the value of the economy. The cost of borrowing for the UK will soon rise as their credit rating is lowered. This isn't scaremongering, this is fact. Already the potential Tata steel investors in Wales have expressed doubt about investing, while talk of banks in the city relocating will take with them both jobs and billions from the economy.

This isn't scaremongering, this is is a fact. Yes, people will be better off than their predecessors of the 1800's and 1900's, but by and large they'll also be worse off than they would have been inside the EU.

The older Ford Focus and Xbox may be the sacrifice the middle classes make, but for many it'll be worse. A low earner in a steel works in Wales for example will probably find himself more concerned about his/her £60/wk, or whatever the exact welfare figure in the the UK is, can feed and cloth him once that plant closes, as inevitabley many industries will.

Palmach

LiamoSail wrote: »

Because money, in respect of the tangible aspects the Governmennt control, is by far the most relevant aspect of the referendum.

Jobs will be lost, billions has already been wiped off the value of the economy. The cost of borrowing for the UK will soon rise as their credit rating is lowered. This isn't scaremongering, this is fact. Already the potential Tata steel investors in Wales have expressed doubt about investing, while talk of banks in the city relocating will take with them both jobs and billions from the economy.

This isn't scaremongering, this is is a fact. Yes, people will be better off than their predecessors of the 1800's and 1900's, but by and large they'll also be worse off than they would have been inside the EU.

The older Ford Focus and Xbox may be the sacrifice the middle classes make, but for many it'll be worse. A low earner in a steel works in Wales for example will probably find himself more concerned about his/her £60/wk, or whatever the exact welfare figure in the the UK is, can feed and cloth him once that plant closes, as inevitabley many industries will.

None of these are facts at all. Thanks to the economic reforms of Thatcher the UK has been growing faster than the rest of the EU. That won't change. The EU share of world trade is shrinking and shrinking fast. Most borrowing is done from the Bank of England so borrowing costs won't change that much. They control their own currency.

Palmach

Palmach wrote: »

None of these are facts at all. Thanks to the economic reforms of Thatcher the UK has been growing faster than the rest of the EU. That won't change. The EU share of world trade is shrinking and shrinking fast. Most borrowing is done from the Bank of England so borrowing costs won't change that much. They control their own currency.

1/3 != most

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/293048/response/716444/attach/html/3/FOI20150919%20Final.pdf.html

Distribution of gilt holdings as at 31 March 2015 (based on market values)

(£millions)
31 March 2015

Overseas holders - 418,900
Bank of England (Asset Purchase Facility) - 407,281
UK Insurance companies and pension funds - 473,938
UK Monetary Financial Institutions (banks) - 143,640
Other UK financial institutions and other - 174,936
UK Households (individuals) - 24,964
UK Local authorities and public corporations - 1,139

TOTAL 1,644,798

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

your graph doesn't have the most recent datapoint.

(In fact, it's not even the FTSE 250)

It is the FTSE 250. On the frame of the last 12 months.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

It is the FTSE 250. On the frame of the last 12 months.

What currency is it in?

FTSE250 is @ ~15,570 yet your graph has a Y value range putting it ~ 11,200

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

What currency is it in?

FTSE250 is @ ~15,570 yet your graph has a Y value range putting it ~ 11,200

Ah here, fair enough it wasn't in GBP: the point is to show the bigger picture of peaks and troughs. A short frame will always look more dramatic.

If you thought it was the wrong period because you saw 07/13 in the picture, let me clarify that 07/13 refers to 13th July 2015... US date format.

I'm just saying, the media love a good scare. And although market activity is chaotic at the minute, it's nothing new.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Ah here, fair enough it wasn't in GBP: the point is to show the bigger picture of peaks and troughs. A short frame will always look more dramatic.

If you thought it was the wrong period because you saw 07/13 in the picture, let me clarify that 07/13 refers to 13th July 2015... US date format.

I'm just saying, the media love a good scare. And although market activity is chaotic at the minute, it's nothing new.

In that case, you are simply missing a valid datapoint, as you have only captured half of the move. Look at the previous recent low vs the current price in your graph vs the Live graph.



(Same Timeframe as you posted above)

Again, I agree with the sentiment, market shocks don't infer much else other than paradigm changes. They don't give us information about where the market is to move to in the future, only where it has recalibrated at drastically in the very recent past. I just noted that your graph wasn't accurate.

Palmach

Deleted User wrote: »

1/3 != most

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/293048/response/716444/attach/html/3/FOI20150919%20Final.pdf.html

So 1/3 are overseas holders which is low. Like Japan the UK debt is held by locals so it can increase borrowing beyond that which it could if most of the borrowing was b y non-UK entities.

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Ah here, fair enough it wasn't in GBP: the point is to show the bigger picture of peaks and troughs. A short frame will always look more dramatic.

If you thought it was the wrong period because you saw 07/13 in the picture, let me clarify that 07/13 refers to 13th July 2015... US date format.

I'm just saying, the media love a good scare. And although market activity is chaotic at the minute, it's nothing new.

Yeah, it's the long term outlook that matters. Having said that, market commentators are setting a $1.20 floor for sterling which is a fair distance from where it's at right now. If (as I suspect) that share prices and the value of sterling get chiselled away day on day, it will look a lot more scary when viewed in a wider timeframe.

Enzokk

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I'm just saying, the media love a good scare. And although market activity is chaotic at the minute, it's nothing new.

Sure the media does love a good scare. The one point that we don't know is if this is just a good scare from the media or really what all those experts of the alphabet soup organizations have been warning about.

This is all before the UK have enacted article 50 and before stories from the negotiations are leaked. If negotiations aren't going well for the UK side you can expect the markets to react to that as well. Its all uncertainty that the leave side waved away as nothing more than markets being markets.

Enzokk

Enzokk wrote: »

Sure the media does love a good scare. The one point that we don't know is if this is just a good scare from the media or really what all those experts of the alphabet soup organizations have been warning about.

This is all before the UK have enacted article 50 and before stories from the negotiations are leaked. If negotiations aren't going well for the UK side you can expect the markets to react to that as well. Its all uncertainty that the leave side waved away as nothing more than markets being markets.

I agree, and am not intending to dismiss the volatility that exists. I just think it's being catastrophised a wee bit.

It's a valid concern, no doubt about that. But it's not quite armageddon. We'll wait for Boris to take charge before we arrive at that juncture.

CMOTDibbler

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I agree, and am not intending to dismiss the volatility that exists. I just think it's being catastrophised a wee bit.

It's a valid concern, no doubt about that. But it's not quite armageddon. We'll wait for Boris to take charge before we arrive at that juncture.

That could be October and there's no guarantee that there won't be a general election by then or soon afterwards.

Harika

Pound dropping, so good if you want to buy from UK: http://www.finanzen.at/devisen/realtimekurs/britische_pfund-us_dollar-kurs
but overall this will go up and down quite a bit in the next weeks, cause on one side the market is reacting, on the other side the Bank of England is pumping money into the market to stabilize it. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe-carney-idUKKCN0ZA16C
That's more money than Greece received in five years of begging.

LiamoSail

Palmach wrote: »

None of these are facts at all. Thanks to the economic reforms of Thatcher the UK has been growing faster than the rest of the EU. That won't change. The EU share of world trade is shrinking and shrinking fast. Most borrowing is done from the Bank of England so borrowing costs won't change that much. They control their own currency.

The value of the currency has declined. The value of the economy has declined. Moody's have cut the UK's credit rating which has increased their cost of borrowing. These are facts, this has already occurred. This is just four days in

Bob24

Harika wrote: »

Pound dropping, so good if you want to buy from UK: http://www.finanzen.at/devisen/realtimekurs/britische_pfund-us_dollar-kurs

Unless you store your wealth and/or get paid in US dollars, you'd better look at the GBP/EUR exchange rate to decide how much cheaper purchases in the UK are for you ;-) (the pound is dropping as well agaisnt the euro, but not as much as a against the dollar as the euro is also being hit by Brexit)

Harika

Bob24 wrote: »

Unless you store your wealth and/or get paid in US dollars, you'd better look at the GBP/EUR exchange rate to decide how much cheaper purchases in the UK are for you ;-) (the pound is dropping as well agaisnt the euro, but not as much as a against the dollar as the euro is also being hit by Brexit)

Sorry, yes that was my original intention to show. Also EUR/USD is raising, what is unexpected imo .