2016 General Election Waterford

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Gael23 wrote: »

A early exit poll with serious health warning.
2 FG
FF
Halligan/Cullinane

Was that a local exit poll or are you just projecting based on the national figures?

cul beag

Gael23 wrote: »

A early exit poll with serious health warning.
2 FG
FF
Halligan/Cullinane

Haven't seen or heard that? Where did you get this from? Slightly surprising to say the least if true? I would have thought Cullinane would fly in.

Jamie2k9

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Exit poll from Rte. Fine gael hammered. 26% big loss of seats

Note it's based on first preference, they should get at least 30% with transfers.

They need around 43%? for to form, they might just of scraped it.

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Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Note it's based on first preference, they should get at least 30% with transfers.

They need around 43%? for to form, they might just of scraped it.

You do realise that you can't just add transfers to increase the percentage?

mickmackmcgoo

Speaking to a fine gael just there reckons coffey is struggling, city vote collapsed, cullinane struggling too as una dunphy polled really well

Jamie2k9

AdMMM wrote: »

You do realise that you can't just add transfers to increase the percentage?

Yes stupid me.

I think they will win by a tiny margin and for a Government

dark crystal

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Speaking to a fine gael just there reckons coffey is struggling, city vote collapsed, cullinane struggling too as una dunphy polled really well

Coffey and his cohorts didn't come anywhere near my door during the election. I wonder how much they campaigned in the city at all. Driving up the Cork Road today and all the posters of Enda Kenny were defaced - there seems to be a lot of anger in the city towards FG.

Cullinane might get through on transfers from the smaller left wing parties, although I thought he'd do well enough on his own merit tbh.

Will be interesting to see how Mary Butler does, as there seems to be a bigger swing than predicted towards FF nationally going by various exit polls.

mickmackmcgoo

dark crystal wrote:

Will be interesting to see how Mary Butler does, as there seems to be a bigger swing than predicted towards FF nationally going by various exit polls.

I think halligan , deasy and butler are certainties. Transfers from Conway and dunphy will decide whether it's cullinane or coffey . I think neither will reach a quota so last man standing wins

AdMMM

dark crystal wrote: »

Coffey and his cohorts didn't come anywhere near my door during the election. I wonder how much they campaigned in the city at all. Driving up the Cork Road today and all the posters of Enda Kenny were defaced - there seems to be a lot of anger in the city towards FG.

Cullinane might get through on transfers from the smaller left wing parties, although I thought he'd do well enough on his own merit tbh.

Will be interesting to see how Mary Butler does, as there seems to be a bigger swing than predicted towards FF nationally going by various exit polls.

There might have been a swing to FF nationally, but in Waterford they'll poll below the average for a number of reasons. Firstly there's the bad taste that remains in people's mouths after the last Government, then you have the fact that the candidate isn't the only candidate running on their home turf so they can't even count on the local vote. Finally, if they were counting on the female vote, there was many other female candidates for that vote to be shared out.

It's going to be very tight though!

dark crystal

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

I think halligan , deasy and butler are certainties. Transfers from Conway and dunphy will decide whether it's cullinane or coffey . I think neither will reach a quota so last man standing wins

Do you think so? Butler seems to be something of an unknown quantity - I would have thought either Coffey or Cullinane would have had the edge on her, simply because of recognition.

I think Cullinane will get through and it will be a straight fight between Butler and Coffey for the last seat.

mickmackmcgoo

dark crystal wrote:

I think Cullinane will get through and it will be a straight fight between Butler and Coffey for the last seat.

I'm far from a fan of fianna fail or fine gael but fianna fail always had a core of voters here and even last time when they collapsed they only lost to halligan by a few hundred. I just can't see coffey being elected and he deserves not to be he allowed hogan and howlin to decimate the city without a whisper from him. Or deasy or Conway. Party always comes first with them

Jamie2k9

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

I'm far from a fan of fianna fail or fine gael but fianna fail always had a core of voters here and even last time when they collapsed they only lost to halligan by a few hundred. I just can't see coffey being elected and he deserves not to be he allowed hogan and howlin to decimate the city without a whisper from him. Or deasy or Conway. Party always comes first with them

Needed to be minister at start of election term.

People need to realize even if it was SF/FF or whoever the exact same would of happened. Not a single party could of kept what they promised.

Worth assuming with all exit pools a 3% error margin still applies so far from certain. Problem with SF is outside Waterford City, he will have low support and did he even make an effort to campaign outside the city this time round. Maybe about 3 posters where I am and the same for FF, FG Desay was everywhere. Another thing to factor in is the 1500 or so people moved in Waterford (or back to Waterford) this time round. Who will of benefited from those...

mickmackmcgoo

Jamie2k9 wrote:

People need to realize even if it was SF/FF or whoever the exact same would of happened. Not a single party could of kept what they promised.

Nothing to do with promises. Allowed VEC out of Waterford. Wild Atlantic way. Merger. Down grade of hospital. Abandoned WIT quest for university etc without a whimper. Electing 3 county candidates last time was a disaster for the city. If Conway had resigned from labour over any of those issues she would have topped the poll this time but party came first and now she is out on her ear even though she is very capable

Jamie2k9

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Nothing to do with promises. Allowed VEC out of Waterford. Wild Atlantic way. Merger. Down grade of hospital. Abandoned WIT quest for university etc without a whimper. Electing 3 county candidates last time was a disaster for the city. If Conway had resigned from labour over any of those issues she would have topped the poll this time but party came first and now she is out on her ear even though she is very capable

1 against 80 or so others, like I said powerless. Had he been a minister at the start not as much would of happened.

SF have a banded plans for uni as well.

MRnotlob606

We need city TDs not people like Deasy who will be just looking after farmers

MRnotlob606

How did Mailo Power do?

kayaksurfbum

Anyone know when results will start to come through?

The Bowling Alley

Jaysus lads will you relax, the boxes have only been opened. Won't get much from tallymen til lunch time

O Riain

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

Anyone know when results will start to come through?

Results won't be in for a while but Twitter is your best bet for updates.

Cabaal

mickmackmcgoo wrote: »

Nothing to do with promises. Allowed VEC out of Waterford. Wild Atlantic way. Merger. Down grade of hospital. Abandoned WIT quest for university etc without a whimper. Electing 3 county candidates last time was a disaster for the city. If Conway had resigned from labour over any of those issues she would have topped the poll this time but party came first and now she is out on her ear even though she is very capable

The Wild Atlantic Way stops before it even reaches Cork city, yet you want it to stretch all the way to Waterford?

The area off the Waterford coast is the Celtic Sea or St Georges Channel, ok "technically" its still part of the Atlantic ocean but then so is the water between England and Ireland so we could just have the Wild Atlantic Way all the way around Ireland.

It just starts getting silly if you start stretching the WAW to areas that it shouldn't be covered by,

There's nothing stopping Waterford getting together with Wexford and creating its own route,

O Riain

Cabaal wrote: »

The Wild Atlantic Way stops before it even reaches Cork city, yet you want it to stretch all the way to Waterford?

The area off the Waterford coast is the Celtic Sea or St Georges Channel, ok "technically" its still part of the Atlantic ocean but then so is the water between England and Ireland so we could just have the Wild Atlantic Way all the way around Ireland.

It just starts getting silly if you start stretching the WAW to areas that it shouldn't be covered by,

There's nothing stopping Waterford getting together with Wexford and creating its own route,

See the problem here is that its still in a part of Cork. Granted East cork missed out but it's still in half of the county. We didn't get a single metre inside the wild Atlantic way and the copper coast would have been a great addition. I'd even go as far to say Hook lighthouse should be on it, possibly even a start/finish point.

We are either on the Atlantic or not and we 100% are

Wanderer78

Cabaal wrote:

There's nothing stopping Waterford getting together with Wexford and creating its own route,

I think this would be a great idea, and connect it to the waw. It works on other trails such as the east Munster way and south Leinster way.

dark crystal

Waterford constituency updates from RTE:

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/waterford/

Turnout estimated at roughly 67%

As of right now:
With 16 boxes open and 9.2% tallied - predominantly rural and mid-county boxes - Fianna Fáil's first-time candidate Mary Butler is polling exceptionally well and leading the charge.
The early tallies stand at; Mary Butler 24.29% (FF) John Deasy (FG) 15.83%, David Cullinane (SF) 15.2%, Paudie Coffey (FG) 17.95%, John Halligan (Ind) 9.43%, Ciara Conway (Lab) 5.88%.


Mary Butler doing exceptionally well, Conway looks set to lose her seat as expected.

Gael23

FF are set to top the poll.
Im losing faith in the Waterford electorate

Wanderer78

Gael23 wrote:

FF are set to top the poll. Im losing faith in the Waterford electorate

I'm losing faith in the Irish electorate. We 're going around in circles here

dark crystal

11.20:

With 40% of the boxes now open and tallied a clear picture is starting to emerge. Fianna Fail's Mary Butler leads the way on 21.96% of the vote with Sinn Fein's David Cullinane in second place on 17.14%.
Fine Gael's Paudie Coffey is next on 15.7% but the real battle appears to be for that fourth seat between Fine Gael's John Deasy on 14.51% and Independent John Halligan on 14.17%.




Halligan will get a much bigger vote in the city and should easily retain his seat. Deasy not looking as safe as some predicted. Very early days, though.

MRnotlob606

Gael23 wrote: »

FF are set to top the poll.
Im losing faith in the Waterford electorate

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451576d69e201a5115e4a3a970c-pi

hardybuck

dark crystal wrote: »

11.20:

With 40% of the boxes now open and tallied a clear picture is starting to emerge. Fianna Fail's Mary Butler leads the way on 21.96% of the vote with Sinn Fein's David Cullinane in second place on 17.14%.
Fine Gael's Paudie Coffey is next on 15.7% but the real battle appears to be for that fourth seat between Fine Gael's John Deasy on 14.51% and Independent John Halligan on 14.17%.




Halligan will get a much bigger vote in the city and should easily retain his seat. Deasy not looking as safe as some predicted. Very early days, though.

Location of those boxes will be very important. Halligan probably more transfer friendly with independents getting knocked out early. Deasy could end up relying on Coffey's surplus also.

Edgarfrndly

Latest from twitter with 68% counted:

iseegirls

Great to see Deasy not doing well. I think he even thought himself that he was a shoe-in. Even judging by ads in papers this week - nothing said about what he'll do for Waterford, or what he did.