2016 General Election Waterford

longshanks

The problem with Cullinane is he'll bow down to Gerry's every whim, Gerry bows down to the likes of Slab Murphy et al.
None of the Sinn Fein candidates anywhere in the country will admit that their leaders are questionable, and people remember that when they vote.
I know all parties candidates have to row in behind their leaders, but the cult like following with Sinn Fein is what will affect them when people vote.
Time will tell.

fuzzy dunlop

longshanks wrote: »

The problem with Cullinane is he'll bow down to Gerry's every whim, Gerry bows down to the likes of Slab Murphy et al.
None of the Sinn Fein candidates anywhere in the country will admit that their leaders are questionable, and people remember that when they vote.
I know all parties candidates have to row in behind their leaders, but the cult like following with Sinn Fein is what will affect them when people vote.
Time will tell.

Sinn Fein are less of a cult than FG in fairness. Anyone who doesn't drink the FG Koolaid quickly gets their political career destroyed. George Lee, Peter Matthews and Creighton are testament to that. Not to mention our own John Deasy whose political career has been vindictively kept in the Doldrums simply because he highlights Kennys obvious deficiencies. The SF cult myth is the FG pot calling the kettle black.

1gunsnroses

Some terrible politicians in Waterford, deasy Conway and Coffey getting in would be heartbreaking, Cullinane seems like the most likely to be of good change for the city as the others don't have the plums for it

Cabaal

fuzzy dunlop wrote: »

Sinn Fein are less of a cult than FG in fairness. Anyone who doesn't drink the FG Koolaid quickly gets their political career destroyed. George Lee, Peter Matthews and Creighton are testament to that. Not to mention our own John Deasy whose political career has been vindictively kept in the Doldrums simply because he highlights Kennys obvious deficiencies. The SF cult myth is the FG pot calling the kettle black.

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Chip Whitley

I'm not a big political follower guys, but anytime I've seen Deasys name being mentioned it's because someone is giving out about him, saying he goes missing and doesn't do anything for Waterford. I've heard this a lot tbh. If this is the case, why are people so sure he'll do well and is topping everyones lists here?

Like I say, I don't know enough about certain individuals/party policies, but of the lists above I have dealt with Cullinane, O'Sullivan and Mulligan through my work on and off down through the years and found them to be really genuinely nice people. In particular Grace O'Sullivan, so an a personal note, I hope she'll do well.

Cabaal

Might be of interest

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2016/02/02/rich-tea/

Waterford Renua candidate and hotel owner Mailo Power talks to William Campbell of the Here’s How [current affairs] podcast on her party’s controversial flat tax plan.

Mailo Power defends her party’s plans for taxation. People on six-figure salaries will get huge tax cuts, someone on €200k get an extra €45k in their pocket. People lower down the scale? They get an incentive to work harder…

Podcast here http://blog.hereshow.ie/2016/02/heres-how-27-mailo-power-of-renua/?ref=broadsheet020216

Tax cuts for the rich! Nice if you can have it I suppose, as a hotel owner I suppose it'll work out great for her.
Here's the hotel http://www.athenaeumhousehotel.com/

mooseknunkle

Cabaal wrote: »

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

Cabaal

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

I find it unsettling because when it comes to politics and governments the only leaders I know of in power for that long are dictators. It's unsettling that nobody was willing to challenge him. Unless you can find me a few partys where the same leader is in power for 30+ years other then SF?

Change in a party is good, any party, regardless of what they stand for. It would be an utter disaster if every party had the same leader for 30 decades+ and nobody every challenged them and replaced them.

1gunsnroses

Cabaal wrote: »

I find it unsettling because when it comes to politics and governments the only leaders I know of in power for that long are dictators. It's unsettling that nobody was willing to challenge him. Unless you can find me a few partys where the same leader is in power for 30+ years other then SF?

Change in a party is good, any party, regardless of what they stand for. It would be an utter disaster if every party had the same leader for 30 decades+ and nobody every challenged them and replaced them.

Total rubbish look what happened with Manchester United

hardybuck

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Out of curiosity and im not one bit political,but why would you find it unsettling that someone is a leader for 30 years?,i know a lot of people who would be in the same job for 30+ years.

Extremely unusual in a leadership situation. Well, apart from dictatorships.

hardybuck

Grace O'Sullivan may actually surprise some people. In the 2014 European Elections she came within 0.4% of Labour's only candidate who was a sitting MEP and FF's second candidate. She got almost 28k first preference votes, but FF's second candidate got a lot (20k) of transfers off Brian Crowley.

I think O'Sullivan was thrown in fairly late into that election, and with it being such a vast electoral area you can imagine that she wouldn't have had much profile in the likes of Clare, Kerry, Wicklow et al. So it'll be interesting to see how she gets on this time around.

Another poster mentioned a substantial number of FF councillors in the city? They have four, out of a total of 18 in the city wards. I think all of them are pretty much rookies, and one of them was elected as an independent.

I think Butler will suffer from having a low profile in the city and Dungarvan. Her home patch is also home to a Minister of State. There will be a FF hardcore in the county going back though, which they'll hope to resurrect.

Cabaal

1gunsnroses wrote: »

Total rubbish look what happened with Manchester United

Man Utd is a political party now?
No doubt it has corruption on levels, but I don;t think that makes it a political party

crazy_kenny

Coffee has to be re elected in my opinion. He seems to be moving up in Fine Gael and may be a minister soon. Its the only way Waterford will be treated the same as other areas. I feel a bit sorry for Ciara Conway. What more can she do being part of a minority government?

jmcc

crazy_kenny wrote: »

Coffee has to be re elected in my opinion. He seems to be moving up in Fine Gael and may be a minister soon.

That would be Minister for State, Paudie Coffey?

Regards...jmcc

The Bowling Alley

jmcc wrote: »

That would be Minister for State, Paudie Coffey?

Regards...jmcc

Junior Minister.

Regards

The fucking bowling alley

fuzzy dunlop

Cabaal wrote: »

SF have the same leader for 30 years, can you find me other political partys that have not changed leader in 30 years? Do you not find that a little unsettling?

Why would I? The party is going in the right direction with regard to electoral success.The SF leadership is an issue for SinnFein. Generally its SF's opponents that come out with this as if they are concerned out of the goodness of their hearts. As a statesman Gerry Adams has more gravitas then MM or EK even with his background. And lets be honest its not as if he has his work cut out for him in comparison to Enda Kenny and Micheal Martin or Shrill Joan Burton for that matter. Enda Kenny is a ticking time bomb for FG. At some point his handlers will have to let him debate with the grown ups and he will be really seen for the light weight he is. It's gas that FG are looking at Donald Trump for inspiration on how Enda Kenny can avoid debates.

fuzzy dunlop

iseegirls wrote: »

Deasy seemed to have gone into a 4 Year hibernation period. I honestly haven't heard anything from him at all since he was elected. Why is he deemed so popular?

I think he benefits from the conservative rural voters in the county to be honest. Look at the results of the locals. It was the City and Tramore that gave the government parties a bloody nose. Its typically rural electorates where the FG vote held. So unfortunately no matter what happens Deasy will get the votes including sitting on his swiss role for the last four years not earning his salary. Conway won't have this luxury nor will Coffey.

Wanderer78

i really wish the people of ireland would do some research into whats actually going on globally regarding our political and economic systems. all is not well in the world of neoliberalism!

hardybuck

In fairness to Deasy he is a member of the Public Accounts Committee who today were grilling the HSE's Director General about that horrendous abuse case in the South East.

Gardner

Am i the only one who thinks Cullinane is going to struggle to take a seat?

in the 2011 GE he polled 5,342 1st pref votes and by the time he went out on the 10th count he only increased his vote by 956 when there was 8,795 transferable votes (9.5%).

Furthermore, 54k people voted in the last GE with 15 candidates. GE16 has 9 taking up the running which may decrease people coming out to vote.

when looking at the 9 candidates it is safe to say Milo Power, Grace O Sullivan, Una Dunphy and Ciara Conway will all be gone before Cullinane. the only transfers Cullinane is likely to get is from Una Dunphy but John Halligan will take a sizable amount of these also. After that Cullinane would be lucky to get 600 votes in transfers from the other 3 candidates.

lets look at it like this incorporating opinion polls %........ 51k people vote:
(based on 1st pref votes)

John Deasy 10,000 (just down from GE11).
John Halligan 8,500 (will pick up from middle class vote and Seamus Ryan not running from GE11)
David Cullinane 8,000 (up 2.7k votes from 2011)
Paudie Coffey 7,000 (Sh!t talk about him been minister will get votes)
Mary Butler 7,000 (remember in GE11 Kenneally got 7500 1st pref when FF were toxic and there less toxic now, depending who you ask).
Ciara Conway 4,000 (Labour polled 10k 1st pref in GE11)
Grace O Sullivan 2,500 (Tramore - female vote that Conway loses)
Una Dunphy 2,000 (WP and female vote)
Milo Power 1,500 (loony tune vote)

So Cullinane is well below the quota. as stated when the 4 likely below candidates are eliminated there will be possibly 10k transferable votes again. say he gets 1k of those, he is sitting at 9000ish.

Power's votes (1200) will go to FG +FF so Coffey and Butler are already catching.

Dunphy is next to go with about 2000 transfers including Powers 3rd pref etc.). Halligan 700 Cullinane 700 and balance to rest (Cullinane at 8700).

O Sullivan goes next, Cullinane likely to pick up 300 odd votes from about 2500 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain here considerably.

Conway is next to go with about 4000 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain with Cullinane likely to get about 300.

so this makes Cullinane on about 9,200ish.

i expect Deasy, Halligan and Coffey to be ahead. Cullinane and Butler will be head to head! id expect a recount!!!!

my prediction: 2 FG 1 IND and 1 FF/SF

btw im not anti SF i just looking at realistically with figures.

Max Powers

Gardner wrote: »

Am i the only one who thinks Cullinane is going to struggle to take a seat?

in the 2011 GE he polled 5,342 1st pref votes and by the time he went out on the 10th count he only increased his vote by 956 when there was 8,795 transferable votes (9.5%).

Furthermore, 54k people voted in the last GE with 15 candidates. GE16 has 9 taking up the running which may decrease people coming out to vote.

when looking at the 9 candidates it is safe to say Milo Power, Grace O Sullivan, Una Dunphy and Ciara Conway will all be gone before Cullinane. the only transfers Cullinane is likely to get is from Una Dunphy but John Halligan will take a sizable amount of these also. After that Cullinane would be lucky to get 600 votes in transfers from the other 3 candidates.

lets look at it like this incorporating opinion polls %........ 51k people vote:
(based on 1st pref votes)

John Deasy 10,000 (just down from GE11).
John Halligan 8,500 (will pick up from middle class vote and Seamus Ryan not running from GE11)
David Cullinane 8,000 (up 2.7k votes from 2011)
Paudie Coffey 7,000 (Sh!t talk about him been minister will get votes)
Mary Butler 7,000 (remember in GE11 Kenneally got 7500 1st pref when FF were toxic and there less toxic now, depending who you ask).
Ciara Conway 4,000 (Labour polled 10k 1st pref in GE11)
Grace O Sullivan 2,500 (Tramore - female vote that Conway loses)
Una Dunphy 2,000 (WP and female vote)
Milo Power 1,500 (loony tune vote)

So Cullinane is well below the quota. as stated when the 4 likely below candidates are eliminated there will be possibly 10k transferable votes again. say he gets 1k of those, he is sitting at 9000ish.

Power's votes (1200) will go to FG +FF so Coffey and Butler are already catching.

Dunphy is next to go with about 2000 transfers including Powers 3rd pref etc.). Halligan 700 Cullinane 700 and balance to rest (Cullinane at 8700).

O Sullivan goes next, Cullinane likely to pick up 300 odd votes from about 2500 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain here considerably.

Conway is next to go with about 4000 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain with Cullinane likely to get about 300.

so this makes Cullinane on about 9,200ish.

i expect Deasy, Halligan and Coffey to be ahead. Cullinane and Butler will be head to head! id expect a recount!!!!

my prediction: 2 FG 1 IND and 1 FF/SF

btw im not anti SF i just looking at realistically with figures.

Surprised with all the negativity and bad mouthing of Coffey,I would consider him the main catalyst/power in much of the positive investment that had happened in Waterford...court house etc.
I'm equally surprised by people's comments who think people like cullinane, halligan can do anything because they "have the Balls"..this is just naive, not in power, no one is listening.IMO Coffey is best chance we have of any investment, of course if you think some lad banging a drum is a good thing

jmcc

Gardner wrote: »

Am i the only one who thinks Cullinane is going to struggle to take a seat?

It is still unclear. Basically the old dynamics of the constituency have changed and some of the old certainties (FF guaranteed a seat) no longer apply. It could, as you mentioned, come down to whoever survives longest before elimination.

The most interesting thing will be how the Mary Butler, the FF candidate does. FF has always benefited from buying the floating vote and its vote used to consist of FF supporters and floating voters who were convinced to vote FF because FF bought their votes with tax breaks and other stuff. However FF have been out of power since the last GE and could not buy this floating vote. Some of this floating vote drifted to Labour and FG in the last GE (hence the election of Ciara Conway/Labour). Coffey also benefited from this floating vote in 2011 when there was a revulsion against FF and the Greens.

Labour has collapsed in the last five years and now it is close to being a Margin of Error party. Its core support percentage in the polls is between 4% and 7% though the polls are closer to numerology than Mathematics in terms of reliability. Labour is actually more hated than Fine Gael. This means that the floating vote that gave Labour its massive seat gain in 2011 no longer wants to vote for it. That may be fatal to Conway/Labour. If she is an early elimination, then the important thing to watch is where her transfers go and in what quantity.

There is a section of the floating vote that moves between FF and Labour. The reinvention of Labour as a D4 wannabe Middle Class party complete with the usual liberal dogma and Politically Correct stuff that does not resonate with voters has basically killed the party. It used to be a party of the Working Class but it sold that out for a few seats at cabinet and pensions for the aging politburo. Sinn Fein took over much of the Working Class support so now Labour is competing with FF, FG and the SDs in a very crowded middle ground.

The transfers from Labour, if Conway is eliminated early, will be important. If some go to FF, then it could have David Cullinane/SF in a fight for a seat. But in Cullinane's favour, he's a known quantity. People in Waterford are aware of him. Mary Butler/FF is not. This might work against her.

Labour has historically benefited from a kind of vote from voters who considered themselves too sophisticated to vote for FF/FG/SF. Now these bien pensant types, school teachers and others, could split to the Green candidate, Grace O'Sullivan. This is a possible explanation for why she did so well in the Euro elections. It is an outside chance that she would get a seat though.

Mailo Power/Renua is a very dangerous threat to Fine Gael. John Deasy may be safely elected but there is an FG vote in the city who may vote for her rather than for Coffey and this could cost FG that second seat.

John Halligan's transfers could benefit Cullinane but he could equally cost Cullinane some floating votes.

my prediction: 2 FG 1 IND and 1 FF/SF

A lot can change between now and the GE.

Regards...jmcc

deisemum

Paudie Coffey has jumped the gun with his posters up before the election was called. I doubt he'll be fined though.

jmcc

deisemum wrote: »

Paudie Coffey has jumped the gun with his posters up before the election was called. I doubt he'll be fined though.

Well at least he can claim he created one job in Waterford. He gave an Irish Water director a job as his driver.

Regards...jmcc

MRnotlob606

Is she trying to come across as some sort of Waterford Maggie Thatcher?

hardybuck

Gardner wrote: »

Am i the only one who thinks Cullinane is going to struggle to take a seat?

in the 2011 GE he polled 5,342 1st pref votes and by the time he went out on the 10th count he only increased his vote by 956 when there was 8,795 transferable votes (9.5%).

Furthermore, 54k people voted in the last GE with 15 candidates. GE16 has 9 taking up the running which may decrease people coming out to vote.

when looking at the 9 candidates it is safe to say Milo Power, Grace O Sullivan, Una Dunphy and Ciara Conway will all be gone before Cullinane. the only transfers Cullinane is likely to get is from Una Dunphy but John Halligan will take a sizable amount of these also. After that Cullinane would be lucky to get 600 votes in transfers from the other 3 candidates.

lets look at it like this incorporating opinion polls %........ 51k people vote:
(based on 1st pref votes)

John Deasy 10,000 (just down from GE11).
John Halligan 8,500 (will pick up from middle class vote and Seamus Ryan not running from GE11)
David Cullinane 8,000 (up 2.7k votes from 2011)
Paudie Coffey 7,000 (Sh!t talk about him been minister will get votes)
Mary Butler 7,000 (remember in GE11 Kenneally got 7500 1st pref when FF were toxic and there less toxic now, depending who you ask).
Ciara Conway 4,000 (Labour polled 10k 1st pref in GE11)
Grace O Sullivan 2,500 (Tramore - female vote that Conway loses)
Una Dunphy 2,000 (WP and female vote)
Milo Power 1,500 (loony tune vote)

So Cullinane is well below the quota. as stated when the 4 likely below candidates are eliminated there will be possibly 10k transferable votes again. say he gets 1k of those, he is sitting at 9000ish.

Power's votes (1200) will go to FG +FF so Coffey and Butler are already catching.

Dunphy is next to go with about 2000 transfers including Powers 3rd pref etc.). Halligan 700 Cullinane 700 and balance to rest (Cullinane at 8700).

O Sullivan goes next, Cullinane likely to pick up 300 odd votes from about 2500 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain here considerably.

Conway is next to go with about 4000 transfers (including others). FG and FF will gain with Cullinane likely to get about 300.

so this makes Cullinane on about 9,200ish.

i expect Deasy, Halligan and Coffey to be ahead. Cullinane and Butler will be head to head! id expect a recount!!!!

my prediction: 2 FG 1 IND and 1 FF/SF

btw im not anti SF i just looking at realistically with figures.

If you drill into the 17-20% of the electorate who appear to be SF supporters, you'll see that the largest groupings of their vote are in the younger age groups and much lesser in the 65 up.

As time goes on a progressively smaller portion of the electorate will remember the Troubles, the most recent ceasefire and what SF are/were.

In the five years since the last election five years of new voters are involved. I think the 18-25 bracket accounts for a large amount of SF's support, and that could make a difference.

Also, what makes you think that Halligan would get the middle class vote?

schemingbohemia

jmcc wrote: »

It is still unclear. Basically the old dynamics of the constituency have changed and some of the old certainties (FF guaranteed a seat) no longer apply. It could, as you mentioned, come down to whoever survives longest before elimination.

The most interesting thing will be how the Mary Butler, the FF candidate does. FF has always benefited from buying the floating vote and its vote used to consist of FF supporters and floating voters who were convinced to vote FF because FF bought their votes with tax breaks and other stuff. However FF have been out of power since the last GE and could not buy this floating vote. Some of this floating vote drifted to Labour and FG in the last GE (hence the election of Ciara Conway/Labour). Coffey also benefited from this floating vote in 2011 when there was a revulsion against FF and the Greens.

Labour has collapsed in the last five years and now it is close to being a Margin of Error party. Its core support percentage in the polls is between 4% and 7% though the polls are closer to numerology than Mathematics in terms of reliability. Labour is actually more hated than Fine Gael. This means that the floating vote that gave Labour its massive seat gain in 2011 no longer wants to vote for it. That may be fatal to Conway/Labour. If she is an early elimination, then the important thing to watch is where her transfers go and in what quantity.

There is a section of the floating vote that moves between FF and Labour. The reinvention of Labour as a D4 wannabe Middle Class party complete with the usual liberal dogma and Politically Correct stuff that does not resonate with voters has basically killed the party. It used to be a party of the Working Class but it sold that out for a few seats at cabinet and pensions for the aging politburo. Sinn Fein took over much of the Working Class support so now Labour is competing with FF, FG and the SDs in a very crowded middle ground.

The transfers from Labour, if Conway is eliminated early, will be important. If some go to FF, then it could have David Cullinane/SF in a fight for a seat. But in Cullinane's favour, he's a known quantity. People in Waterford are aware of him. Mary Butler/FF is not. This might work against her.

Labour has historically benefited from a kind of vote from voters who considered themselves too sophisticated to vote for FF/FG/SF. Now these bien pensant types, school teachers and others, could split to the Green candidate, Grace O'Sullivan. This is a possible explanation for why she did so well in the Euro elections. It is an outside chance that she would get a seat though.

Mailo Power/Renua is a very dangerous threat to Fine Gael. John Deasy may be safely elected but there is an FG vote in the city who may vote for her rather than for Coffey and this could cost FG that second seat.

John Halligan's transfers could benefit Cullinane but he could equally cost Cullinane some floating votes.

A lot can change between now and the GE.

Regards...jmcc

Whilst Labour are suffering in the polls - 10% is not margin of error stuff, you're also forgetting that Waterford has had a Labour seat for the past 20 years, so whilst Conway will struggle to get back in I don't think she should be written off quite so boldly.

tombliboo83

Conway ruined her chances of reelection when she ran for deputy leader of labour and proudly announced that she wouldn't accept a ministry if she won. For me that encapsulated the attitude of politics in Waterford, that somehow we don't deserve to dine at the top table.
It's a sad indictment of Waterford when paudie is our best chance of a ministry.

jmcc

schemingbohemia wrote: »

Whilst Labour are suffering in the polls - 10% is not margin of error stuff, you're also forgetting that Waterford has had a Labour seat for the past 20 years, so whilst Conway will struggle to get back in I don't think she should be written off quite so boldly.

At a national level, people seem to hate Labour. As for Waterford, Labour seems to have betrayed it. It is unlikely that Labour is anywhere near 10% support and most of the polls puff up Labour's actual support (core figures).

Regards...jmcc

Max Powers

I think we can all agree Ciara Conway doesnt have a hope.

What do people make of talk of John Deasy to be Ceann Comhairle, will that mean he loses his lobbying for Waterford capacity or can he still speak out like that, would be a shame if he was silenced or does the ceann comhairle have any power that he could use to benefit Waterford?

Gerry Adams was out over the weekend saying getting rid of the special criminal court is a priority.....is he insane? yeah you can argue its not very democratic because no jury but c'mon jerry, the reason it is there is because of his old buddies and criminal gangs.

..isnt it great to see all the communion posters back on the street lights:D