2016 General Election Waterford

brickysession

MRnotlob606 wrote: »

Butler being Fianna Fáils waterford candidate is disastrous in my opinion.Because Fianna Fáil have a substantial amount of city councilors and did not put forward any of them - it looks like it could cause some problems.

Why not Murphy ? Quinlan or Mulligan ?

Looks like she was chosen for the gender quota, as I don't think many in the city know her.

I wonder is Eddie Mulligan regretting his decision to switch to FF now after he didn't get the nod for the General elections considering that he was seen to have duped the people who voted for him as an independant?

He possibly could have fared quite well as an independant perhaps!!

Wanderer78

id be very grateful folks for links to podcasts, debates, interviews etc, related to the elections. thank you

AdMMM

You ask, I deliver.

Twitter #GE16 Tag - https://twitter.com/search?q=%23GE16&src=tyah
Tweets about the General Election itself

Twitter #GE16Wat Tag - https://twitter.com/search?q=%23GE16WAT&src=typd
Tweets about the Waterford constituency - will imagine this usage will increase as the campaign goes on

Irish Times Constituency Profile - http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/waterford

Newstalk Constituency Profile - https://www.newstalk.com/reader/47.1252/64395/0/

RTE Election Profile - http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/waterford/

Inside Politics Podcast - https://soundcloud.com/irishtimes-politics

Wanderer78

AdMMM wrote:

You ask, I deliver.

Legend. Thank you

AdMMM

Fianna Fail realistically need to poll 20% to be certain of a seat in Waterford. They're currently polling 20% nationally, however the last constituency level poll i.e. poll that breaks down support by constituency, on the 31st January has them at 14% in Waterford.

That's a lot of ground to make up and they'll face difficulty given the profile of the candidate and bitter memories of FF for Waterford in their last Government. Even the Portlaw vote is going to be split between herself and Coffey.

I'm going to call it:

Deasy
Halligan
Cullinane
Coffey

Butler
Conway

Halligan and Cullinane will be closer than the odds make out and their order could even possibly reverse. Coffey and Butler will probably poll similarly but it'll be Conway's transfers going to Coffey that will seal the deal.

Gael23

AdMMM wrote: »

Fianna Fail realistically need to poll 20% to be certain of a seat in Waterford. They're currently polling 20% nationally, however the last constituency level poll i.e. poll that breaks down support by constituency, on the 31st January has them at 14% in Waterford.

That's a lot of ground to make up and they'll face difficulty given the profile of the candidate and bitter memories of FF for Waterford in their last Government. Even the Portlaw vote is going to be split between herself and Coffey.

I'm going to call it:

Deasy
Halligan
Cullinane
Coffey

Butler
Conway

Halligan and Cullinane will be closer than the odds make out and their order could even possibly reverse. Coffey and Butler will probably poll similarly but it'll be Conway's transfers going to Coffey that will seal the deal.

I'd agree with a lot of that but I don't think SF will get enough votes to take the second seat. It would be fairly humiliating for Labour to come behind Fianna Fáil.

Jamie2k9

I don't see SF getting a seat. To much of a city boi

Will give my vote to both FG and maybe a transfer to Conway. Not because they are doing a good job but better than the rest.

Gerry Adams was out over the weekend saying getting rid of the special criminal court is a priority.....is he insane? yeah you can argue its not very democratic because no jury but c'mon jerry, the reason it is there is because of his old buddies and criminal gangs.

Can they get rid without a referendum?

Jamie2k9

tombliboo83 wrote: »

Conway ruined her chances of reelection when she ran for deputy leader of labour and proudly announced that she wouldn't accept a ministry if she won. For me that encapsulated the attitude of politics in Waterford, that somehow we don't deserve to dine at the top table.
It's a sad indictment of Waterford when paudie is our best chance of a ministry.

Looks like a change of mind according to Journal Election page:

Q.
What one thing would you like to do in your first 100 days of the new Dáil if you are elected?

I would like to see Waterford get a senior minister. Tell Joan Burton I am happy to serve & for a referendum on #repealthe8th to be held.

Gael23

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I don't see SF getting a seat. To much of a city boi

Will give my vote to both FG and maybe a transfer to Conway. Not because they are doing a good job but better than the rest.



Can they get rid without a referendum?

I think I'd rather see them get it than FF because nobody will form a government with them so there not any threat.
A referendum is needed to repeal the 8th amendment

AdMMM

https://twitter.com/AskPaddyPower/status/695248072058785793

Odds for "To Top The Poll" will be online by the end of the day. Could be some value in Halligan or Cullinane, depending on how you see the FG vote split and the prices obviously.

jmcc

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Looks like a change of mind according to Journal Election page:

She wanted to make Waterford a "city of sanctuary" but she doesn't live here and that was before Paris and New Year's Eve in Germany.

Regards...jmcc

AdMMM

Odds are up for the To Top the Poll market.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/irish-politics/To-Top-The-Poll-%28Waterford%29-10130266.html?force_racing_css=N

Deasy 1/2
Halligan 6/4
Cullinane 20/1


Very tempting prices for supporters of either candidate there!

Wanderer78

Anymore election related podcasts, interviews etc. out there folks? Thank you

Wanderer78

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/podcast/podcast_morningireland.xml

MRnotlob606

It aint easy being Deasy

AdMMM

MRnotlob606 wrote: »

It aint easy being Deasy

What happened?

Wanderer78

MRnotlob606 wrote: »

It aint easy being Deasy

nice lyric!

Gardner

AdMMM wrote: »

Odds are up for the To Top the Poll market.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/irish-politics/To-Top-The-Poll-%28Waterford%29-10130266.html?force_racing_css=N

Deasy 1/2
Halligan 6/4
Cullinane 20/1


Very tempting prices for supporters of either candidate there!

very much in line with my earlier prediction. the 20/1 on Cullinane must have some maths to it. is it from there internal polls showing a huge gap between 2nd and 3rd seats? if so i think my prediction on the transfers might have a bit of logic to it.

dont be surprised if FG release something big on SF in the coming weeks. Same as locally, will Coffey go after Cullinane on what dirt he has on him?

jmcc

Gardner wrote: »

very much in line with my earlier prediction. the 20/1 on Cullinane must have some maths to it. is it from there internal polls showing a huge gap between 2nd and 3rd seats? if so i think my prediction on the transfers might have a bit of logic to it.

Those are the odds on which candidate will top the poll not on their election chances.

Regards...jmcc

fuzzy dunlop

jmcc wrote: »

She wanted to make Waterford a "city of sanctuary" but she doesn't live here and that was before Paris and New Year's Eve in Germany.

Regards...jmcc

It would be difficult I believe to find anyone who has failed Waterford politically more than her. She seems to think she has free reign to pursue identity politics without representing the interests of her constituents. I don't see how anyone can seriously think there is anyone worse than her and keep a straight face. Its burned in my memory her smiling to the cameras like 600 people losing their jobs in Talk Talk was some sort of movie premier.

Coffey is not much better. He got the junior ministers job because FG knew he was a gonner if they did not throw some sort of crumb to Waterford but it was too little too late. If he gets re-elected he will be on the back benches again. I think the government are doing a lot worse than the polls are reporting and Coffey is just not going to register after the election with regard to any potential position. Coffey and Conway were utterly useless in preventing Phil Hogan and Howlin from pillaging the place and that should not be forgotten. Deasy not much better but at least he was an irritant.

fuzzy dunlop

Gardner wrote: »

dont be surprised if FG release something big on SF in the coming weeks. Same as locally, will Coffey go after Cullinane on what dirt he has on him?

Can't see what Coffey would have on Cullinane that he wouldn't have used already. I don't think he was born when Jeam McConville was murdered but it wouldn't surprise me if FG tried to play that card again. A few days in and SF already have them on the ropes with regard to their economic projections i.e the fiscal space Buzz word Enda can't understand. Not to mention the revelations that Michael Noonan had information with regard to vulnerable people being abused while he was minister for Health which he did next to nothing about. Then all the siteserve and IBRC irregularities can be regurgitated if things get ugly which they inevitably will.

Gardner

jmcc wrote: »

Those are the odds on which candidate will top the poll not on their election chances.

Regards...jmcc

Hence why I said the gap between 2nd and 3rd in my original post

south

Coffey promised a higher position if returned to government according to the canvasser who called to my door the other day. I'm sure everyone in the party has been told the same thing..

Xenophile

south wrote: »

Coffey promised a higher position if returned to government according to the canvasser who called to my door the other day. I'm sure everyone in the party has been told the same thing..

Coffey is growing in stature as every year goes by. There is a lot to be said about "wisdom comes the greying of the hair"

fuzzy dunlop

south wrote: »

Coffey promised a higher position if returned to government according to the canvasser who called to my door the other day. I'm sure everyone in the party has been told the same thing..

He would say that though, wouldn't he?

Taxburden carrier

Xenophile wrote: »

Coffey is growing in stature as every year goes by. There is a lot to be said about "wisdom comes the greying of the hair"

Excellent accurate fact based analysis....NOT !

noby

Interesting thread. Any chance a mod could put a link to it on the county forum? I don't always check the city forum, so maybe others haven't seen it too.

robtri

south wrote: »

Coffey promised a higher position if returned to government according to the canvasser who called to my door the other day. I'm sure everyone in the party has been told the same thing..

christ scrapping the barrell if thats part of their pitch on the doors, Vote for Coffey so he can get a better job.......

jmcc

Xenophile wrote: »

Coffey is growing in stature as every year goes by. There is a lot to be said about "wisdom comes the greying of the hair"

So, in your mind, we should elect more midgets to the Dail?

He seems to be another school teacher of the Enda Kenny ilk.

Those are not reasons to vote for him.

Regards...jmcc

fuzzy dunlop

jmcc wrote: »

So, in your mind, we should elect more midgets to the Dail?

He seems to be another school teacher of the Enda Kenny ilk.

Those are not reasons to vote for him.

Regards...jmcc

This is the electoral ploy.The resident FG'rs on this site were saying the same thing back in 2010:D If he does get the call he will get toward the end of the next government in order to shore up the constituency near the end of the dail term. Like the abolition of the USC:D