2016 General Election Waterford

gowley

Sully wrote: »

If Cullinane doesn't get it now, he may as well just walk from politics tbh.

Is he married to Kathleen funchion a candidate in carlow kilkenny

jimmyw

gowley wrote: »

Is he married to Kathleen funchion a candidate in carlow kilkenny

Yeah

Gardner

gowley wrote: »

Is he married to Kathleen funchion a candidate in carlow kilkenny

there separated

AdMMM

I linked to the Inside Politics podcast earlier in the thread, but I'd recommend signing up for their daily email. Focused on a national level, but our candidates are featuring here and there. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/inside-politics

The Independent have published their Waterford constituency preview here: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/deasy-to-top-poll-but-big-battle-in-store-for-final-seat-34435945.html . I generally think that constituency previews by commentators based outside the constituencies have a pretty wide margin for error as they simply don't have enough knowledge of what the local issues are, or the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates.

AdMMM

I linked to the Inside Politics podcast earlier in the thread, but I'd recommend signing up for their daily email. Focused on a national level, but our candidates are featuring here and there. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/inside-politics

The Independent have published their Waterford constituency preview here: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/deasy-to-top-poll-but-big-battle-in-store-for-final-seat-34435945.html . I generally think that constituency previews by commentators based outside the constituencies have a pretty wide margin for error as they simply don't have enough knowledge of what the local issues are, or the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates.

spookwoman

Someones been taking down Mailo Powers posters http://www.waterford-news.ie/2016/02/10/gardai-investigating-missing-election-posters/#.VrtJVeBO_cw.facebook

kayaksurfbum

spookwoman wrote: »

Someones been taking down Mailo Powers posters http://www.waterford-news.ie/2016/02/10/gardai-investigating-missing-election-posters/#.VrtJVeBO_cw.facebook

Thats a weird one! Who benefits from that?

spookwoman

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

spookwoman wrote: »

Someones been taking down Mailo Powers posters http://www.waterford-news.ie/2016/02/10/gardai-investigating-missing-election-posters/#.VrtJVeBO_cw.facebook

Thats a weird one! Who benefits from that?

God knows probably peed off voters. Seems Paudy coffee got hit as well http://www.wlrfm.com/news-single.php?cat=1&id=61163

Wanderer78

AdMMM wrote: »

I linked to the Inside Politics podcast earlier in the thread, but I'd recommend signing up for their daily email. Focused on a national level, but our candidates are featuring here and there. http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/inside-politics

any other podcasts? times are very good

deisemum

The council have taken down about 30 posters that were put up where they shouldn't have been or put up too low and were dangerous and have posted that the owners can collect them.

Cabaal

spookwoman wrote: »

Someones been taking down Mailo Powers posters http://www.waterford-news.ie/2016/02/10/gardai-investigating-missing-election-posters/#.VrtJVeBO_cw.facebook

A determined Power told the Waterford News and Star: “Obviously this is disappointing, it’s meant to be a level playing field out there, but we see this as a positive rather than a negative. We already have three teams of people out replacing the posters and we are clearly regarded as a threat to some”.

She's right, it is supposed to be a level playing field and she is just as much entitled to have posters as anyone else. If people don't want to vote for a certain person/party then they can do this on the day but until then he is entitled to have posters up.

If people want to take down posters then take them all down regardless of who they belong to. (make the place look more tidy atleast)

AdMMM

There's been some movement in the betting market I see. Paudie drifting to 1/2 and Mary Butler shortening to 4/7 while Ciara Conway falls to 11/2. The 6/4 value on Mary Butler is now well gone but I think the price on Coffey is slightly generous at 1/2.

John Deasy - 1/50
John Halligan - 1/40
David Cullinane - 1/9
Paudie Coffey - 1/2
Mary Butler - 4/7
Ciara Conway - 11/2
Grace O'Sullivan - 35/1
Mailo Power - 50/1
Una Dunphy - 50/1

The Top the poll market has also moved with Halligan drifting to 13/8 from 6/4 and Cullinane coming in from 20/1 to 14/1. 20/1 was a great price on Cullinane and 14/1 is arguably still good. All is takes is for FG to split their vote and that's Deasy out of the picture for topping the poll and it's always going to be close between himself and Halligan.

Definitely worth pointing out that the Waterford market is pretty small in terms of bets being placed so it's worth pointing out that a bet of even €100 is enough to move the market.

AdMMM

John D Walsh enters the race. Will be first to be eliminated.

https://twitter.com/johndwalsh/status/695923871996846080

https://twitter.com/johndwalsh/status/697505227390525444

Yes Boss

AdMMM wrote: »

John D Walsh enters the race. Will be first to be eliminated.

https://twitter.com/johndwalsh/status/695923871996846080

https://twitter.com/johndwalsh/status/697505227390525444

Everyone is Pro-Life. It's just most people believe that women deserve more rights over their bodies.

wagtail99

AdMMM wrote: »

There's been some movement in the betting market I see. Paudie drifting to 1/2 and Mary Butler shortening to 4/7 while Ciara Conway falls to 11/2. The 6/4 value on Mary Butler is now well gone but I think the price on Coffey is slightly generous at 1/2.

John Deasy - 1/50
John Halligan - 1/40
David Cullinane - 1/9
Paudie Coffey - 1/2
Mary Butler - 4/7
Ciara Conway - 11/2
Grace O'Sullivan - 35/1
Mailo Power - 50/1
Una Dunphy - 50/1

The Top the poll market has also moved with Halligan drifting to 13/8 from 6/4 and Cullinane coming in from 20/1 to 14/1. 20/1 was a great price on Cullinane and 14/1 is arguably still good. All is takes is for FG to split their vote and that's Deasy out of the picture for topping the poll and it's always going to be close between himself and Halligan.

Definitely worth pointing out that the Waterford market is pretty small in terms of bets being placed so it's worth pointing out that a bet of even €100 is enough to move the market.

I'm not a betting person, so I don't fully fully understand how odds are set, but why if there are 4 seats in Waterford, are 5 of the candidates at 'odds-on' to get elected? i.e. betting odds of less than even money.

noby

Not a betting person either, but it looks to me like the bookies are saying the last seat is too close to cal between Coffey And Butler.

AdMMM

wagtail99 wrote: »

I'm not a betting person, so I don't fully fully understand how odds are set, but why if there are 4 seats in Waterford, are 5 of the candidates at 'odds-on' to get elected? i.e. betting odds of less than even money.

It's so the bookie is guaranteed to make some profit. They price up the markets very conservatively because it's very difficult for them to have all the information they need to have accurate prices.

Taxburden carrier

First canvassers today. Dropped in leaflets for John Halligan but didn't knock . No opportunity to engage. That was usually a Fianna Fáil ploy.

debok

Taxburden carrier wrote: »

First canvassers today. Dropped in leaflets for John Halligan but didn't knock . No opportunity to engage. That was usually a Fianna Fáil ploy.

John halligans canvassers called to my door had good chat with them. Answered everything I asked as best they good. Maybe ya didn't hear the knock!!!

Taxburden carrier

debok wrote: »

John halligans canvassers called to my door had good chat with them. Answered everything I asked as best they good. Maybe ya didn't hear the knock!!!

Was reading a book, sitting about six feet from the door. Leaflet didn't hit the floor, stuck in the letterbox. They were coming back down the road,about five of them, as I stood in the doorstep, leaflet in hand. Looked across at me but passed on.

Max Powers

I think its odd that the fella with the best chance of influence in the govt from Waterford (Coffey) is so low down on the pecking order. To be fair to him, he has brought some good to Waterford in the past 4 years (IDA, courthouse, VT stuff, more possibly) and yet Halligan and others have not achieved anything for Waterford and wont if re-elected. I looked at halligans leaflet when it dropped in the letter box, nothing achieved for Waterford. I like him (as much as you can like a politician) and his stance on issues such a right to dignified death, abortion and his liberal stance on other issues, that is why I voted for him last time out but this time, Im looking at the cold hard 'what can he do in a next govt'. I believe with only 4 TDs, we don't have the luxury of voting for a Shane Ross/Halligan type because it is investment that Waterford needs not a voice the govt is not listening to.

also, I posted earlier that looks like Deasy could be Ceann Comhairle, does that mean he cant influence? Im guessing you need to be a politics nerd to know that one. If so, that will be a disappointment, hes not shy.

BBM77

Max Powers wrote: »

...Deasy could be Ceann Comhairle, does that mean he cant influence? Im guessing you need to be a politics nerd to know that one. If so, that will be a disappointment, hes not shy.

It will not change anything either way. Deasy has virtually no influence in FG anyway and in fact as far as I can see is virtually an outcast in the party. That is why he is seen as a strong runner for Ceann Comhairle as he is not close to the government.

hardybuck

Important to remember that previously the Ceann Comhairle was appointed by the Government of the day.

Under reforms put through by Kenny, the Ceann Comhairle will be appointed by secret ballot in the future.

So, there is no guarantee that a candidate nominated by the Government parties would be successful.

With regard to influence - yes they can be influential. They put questions to the house and are the one who mediates the debate within the chamber. A FG candidate who is not on particularly good terms with the leadership would attract support from opposition parties.

Gael23

Mary Butlers father in law died this morning. An inevitable distraction from the campaign but I imagine her team will try to keep the show going.

AdMMM

hardybuck wrote: »

Important to remember that previously the Ceann Comhairle was appointed by the Government of the day.

Under reforms put through by Kenny, the Ceann Comhairle will be appointed by secret ballot in the future.

So, there is no guarantee that a candidate nominated by the Government parties would be successful.

With regard to influence - yes they can be influential. They put questions to the house and are the one who mediates the debate within the chamber. A FG candidate who is not on particularly good terms with the leadership would attract support from opposition parties.

They can be influential in shaping the direction of the chamber, but they can't influence anything within a constituency. They can't sit on committees, they can't lobby departments. That's why they're automatically returned at the next election - their reward for having no influence within a constituency for an entire term.

hardybuck

AdMMM wrote: »

They can be influential in shaping the direction of the chamber, but they can't influence anything within a constituency. They can't sit on committees, they can't lobby departments. That's why they're automatically returned at the next election - their reward for having no influence within a constituency for an entire term.

Well, the individual in question currently sits on probably the most important committee - the Public Accounts Committee, and does all the other business.

Unfortunately none of the above seems to be capturing the attention of the participants of this discussion board.

longshanks

If offered the Ceann Comhairle position would he definitely take it?

robtri

longshanks wrote: »

If offered the Ceann Comhairle position would he definitely take it?

why wouldnt he??? extra cash in the pocket and automatic re election in the next general election..... why wouldnt you

AdMMM

longshanks wrote: »

If offered the Ceann Comhairle position would he definitely take it?

I suppose it would all depend on how long he wants his political career to last. The position is the political version of being put out to pasture. He'd get his 5 automatic years after being in the position but after that it would be extremely difficult to get back his seat.

Wanderer78

any idea folks where i can get the video or audio of the leaders debates from? im know theyre on iplayer but i need the actual video or audio. thank you