2016 General Election Waterford

jmcc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

any idea folks where i can get the video or audio of the leaders debates from? im know theyre on iplayer but i need the actual video or audio. thank you

TV3 player and RTE Player?

Regards...jmcc

reni10

I have no idea why Deasy is so popular?

He has done nothing but yet will get back in again, can someone please explain that to me??!

Wanderer78

jmcc wrote:

TV3 player and RTE Player?

Thanks jmcc but I'm looking for the actual video or audio file. Might have to scrap them from iPlayer

hardybuck

reni10 wrote: »

I have no idea why Deasy is so popular?

He has done nothing but yet will get back in again, can someone please explain that to me??!

While I'm in no way a Deasy cheerleader, I should point out that he is highly respected across the political spectrum, and some opposition TDs said they'd vote for him ahead of one of their own.

Can you explain what another candidate has done versus what you think that he hasn't done?

Max Powers

hardybuck wrote: »

While I'm in no way a Deasy cheerleader, I should point out that he is highly respected across the political spectrum, and some opposition TDs said they'd vote for him ahead of one of their own.

Can you explain what another candidate has done versus what you think that he hasn't done?

Id say 3 of them did nothing, anything that has been achieved for Waterford (courthouse, firestation, IDA manager, VT investment, movement on boundary, movement on north quays, ) has had COffeys fingerprints on it. When I look at the potential future TDs (according to the polls 5 have a chance) Deasy, Cullinane, Butler and Halligan will not have any influence if FG/FF/SF are elected. Halligan has a slim chance if independents are needed but there are people im sure that FG/FF would look to before him. As bad as Conway was, I did hear Joan Burton was instrumental in getting the Glass pensions progressed, I do think they are getting a raw deal as a party but I still cant vote for their candidate here.

taking all that CEann comhairle talk into account, it looks like Deasy as a ceann comhairle is bad for Waterford, granted he has little influence now and because of that has achieved f-all for Waterford. Im not so sure he will be put forward as FG will need every TD standing by all reports, on saying that, if they are forced to nominate one, im sure they would be happy to send one who is not working with the powers that be 'out to pasture' as someone said.

Taxburden carrier

Don't know if there's a decent candidate among them. Why we need four of them to not represent Waterford is another mystery.

BBM77

Taxburden carrier wrote: »

...Why we need four of them to not represent Waterford is another mystery.

Funny you should say that. This something I was just thinking is a big issue for Waterford that has been over-looked. Waterford city is completely under represented. Waterford city is the fifth largest urban area in the country, has a population bigger than some counties, and it has virtually no representation in government. The removal of Waterford City Council has added to this problem. There really needs to be a Waterford city or Waterford east constituency created because the current structure is just not serving the city.

AdMMM

BBM77 wrote: »

Funny you should say that. This something I was just thinking is a big issue for Waterford that has been over-looked. Waterford city is completely under represented. Waterford city is the fifth largest urban area in the country, has a population bigger than some counties, and it has virtually no representation in government. The removal of Waterford City Council has added to this problem. There really needs to be a Waterford city or Waterford east constituency created because the current structure is just not serving the city.

No, the city voters just need to vote for city based candidates!

I'm looking at the numbers from the 2011 election and out of the 18,591 first preference votes that were placed in the Waterford City area, 44% of them went to either county or out of county based candidates. Meanwhile, just 24% of county based votes went to City based candidates.

hardybuck

AdMMM wrote: »

No, the city voters just need to vote for city based candidates!

I'm looking at the numbers from the 2011 election and out of the 18,591 first preference votes that were placed in the Waterford City area, 44% of them went to either county or out of county based candidates. Meanwhile, just 24% of county based votes went to City based candidates.

Could you offer a breakdown there? I'm quite a bit higher in my tot but perhaps I'm classing some candidates as city in error.

AdMMM

City Based:
Declan Waters
Joe Tobin
Seamus Ryan
Ben Nutty
Gerard Kiersey
Brendan Kenneally
John Halligan

County Based:
Jody Power
Tim Higgins
John Deasy
Joe Conway
Ciara Conway
Justin Collery
Paudie Coffey

Non-Waterford
David Cullinane

If we classify Cullinane as city based then it becomes 33% of city based votes went to county candidates and 47% of county votes went to city based candidates.

johnsparkexile

Max Powers wrote: »

. I did hear Joan Burton was instrumental in getting the Glass pensions progressed, I do think they are getting a raw deal as a party but I still cant vote for their candidate here./QUOTE]

That wouldn't have been hard for her to do, as she spent the first 3 years in Government fighting against the unions case, even when the government / Dept of Social Protection knew they had lost the case, they still procrastinated and delayed the outcome ever step of the way, all the while telling people how much she was doing to expedite it.

The workers accepted the deal in December 2014, it was October / September 2015 before they received their money. At the moment 200 workers who appealed their awards have still received nothing even thou the appeal process ended last December( waiting for someone in the Dept of Finance to sign off on it) and those due their pensions are being told they will receive it at the end of this month. It is still unclear when back money for those past pension age will be paid out.

I would have been a great admirer of her for many years but I believe that Joan and the Labour party abandoned their principles and values in the pursuit of power and will pay the price for that in the up coming election.

hardybuck

AdMMM wrote: »

City Based:
Declan Waters
Joe Tobin
Seamus Ryan
Ben Nutty
Gerard Kiersey
Brendan Kenneally
John Halligan

County Based:
Jody Power
Tim Higgins
John Deasy
Joe Conway
Ciara Conway
Justin Collery
Paudie Coffey

Non-Waterford
David Cullinane

If we classify Cullinane as city based then it becomes 33% of city based votes went to county candidates and 47% of county votes went to city based candidates.

Yeah, you're figures are slightly off I think. The candidates you've listed above gathered 19,124 first preference votes between them.

I also think Jody Power and Justin Collery are city based which brings you up to 20,553. Then really while Cullinane's home postal address is KK, I think we're splitting hairs if we're not calling him a city candidate.

Not counting Power, Collery and Cullinane in your total, 36.6% of first preference votes went to city candidates. If those three are included then over 48% of the first preference votes went to city candidates.

Interestingly, over 93% of the county Waterford vote went to three candidates. Perhaps this is the real answer, in that Waterford city had too many candidates.

AdMMM

Interestingly, over 93% of the county Waterford vote went to three candidates. Perhaps this is the real answer, in that Waterford city had too many candidates.

I think that's wrong...

Combining the votes of Dungarvan, Comeragh, Lismore and Tramore we get a total of 32,945 county based votes. Then taking their tally from those areas we get:

Candidate | Votes | %
Deasy | 8573 | 26%
Coffey | 6411 | 19%
Kenneally | 5102 | 15%


So those 3 candidates count for 60% of the vote, not 93%

MRnotlob606

Where is David Cullinane based ? Is it somewhere in North Waterford/Ferrybank ?

fiachr_a

What have these candidates got to say about refugees raping Waterford women?

fricatus

fiachr_a wrote: »

What have these candidates got to say about refugees raping Waterford women?

I don't know, but why don't you email them to ask?

paudie.coffey@oireachtas.ie
ciara.conway@oireachtas.ie
john.deasy@oireachtas.ie
john.halligan@oireachtas.ie
David.cullinane@oireachtas.ie

I'm pretty sure they're all against it. You have reported these crimes to the Gardaí, right?

Captain Havoc

fiachr_a wrote: »

What have these candidates got to say about refugees raping Waterford women?

Permanent ban, racism will not be tolerated.

somebaldyfela

Captain Havoc wrote: »

Permanent ban, racism will not be tolerated.

Ah come on are You for real??he raised a genuine issue, its been in the media this week!

Sully

somebaldyfela wrote: »

Ah come on are You for real??he raised a genuine issue, its been in the media this week!

Daft question though. What about the Irish who are convicted of same crime? It also stinks of linking it to the current refuge situation Europe faces and it's completely unrelated as he's been in the country years.

mire

somebaldyfela wrote: »

Ah come on are You for real??he raised a genuine issue, its been in the media this week!

Let's be entirely honest here - what issue did he really attempt to raise? Be honest?

Was it really about

Rape?

or

Race?

BBM77

AdMMM wrote: »

No, the city voters just need to vote for city based candidates!

I'm looking at the numbers from the 2011 election and out of the 18,591 first preference votes that were placed in the Waterford City area, 44% of them went to either county or out of county based candidates. Meanwhile, just 24% of county based votes went to City based candidates.

No we need constituencies based on logic not medieval county boundaries. Likewise with local authorities. The east of the county is very different from the west and needs to be represented and managed if different ways. The west has much more in common with county Tipperary than the east of the county. The east of the county is urban and metropolitan, the west is rural with small towns. As far as I am concerned the way Waterford is represented and governed needs to be overhauled as it is just not working for Waterford pure and simple. And as I said the removal of Waterford City Council has added to this problem.

Also you are not taking second, third and on preference votes into account which is simplifying the electoral process. Few candidates reach the quota and get elected on first preference votes alone.

O Riain

somebaldyfela wrote: »

Ah come on are You for real??he raised a genuine issue, its been in the media this week!

What about Waterford Men raping Waterford women? Or how about Waterford people throwing petrol bombs into a house with children in it. Or how about a Waterford man driving up to Laois and trying to kidnap a child to do god knows what?

If found guilty then that guy should not be allowed to stay in the country, no questions asked, but to imply that refugees are constantly going around raping women in Waterford is abhorrent.

Cabaal

O Riain wrote: »

If found guilty then that guy should not be allowed to stay in the country, no questions asked, but to imply that refugees are constantly going around raping women in Waterford is abhorrent.

Got to agree,
From what I've found on the case it relates to 1x rape back in 2014 by one refugee. However to ask what TD's thoughts are on refugees raping women is tarring them all with the one brush and is deeply unsettling that somebody would try to do this.

As an example you wouldn't tar the whole of Tramore as rapists if a rape was committed by a person from Tramore, the same applys here and its deeply sickening for people to attempt to tar all refugees like this.

AdMMM

This will probably be my last post on odds in this thread as I can't imagine them changing much more.



Latest movement sees Deasy, Halligan and Cullinane all get shorter. This means that after milestones like the candidate nomination deadline passing and a series of opinion polls are taken into account, Paddy Power are pretty satisfied that they're now guaranteed their seats.



The To Top the Poll market has also shifted with nothing between Deasy and Halligan. I now think that the market accurately reflects the chances. Cullinane at 20/1 at the beginning was great value. 4/1 is probably a fair price.

invara

My two cents is that we need to be sending people to Dublin who have the potential to be a minister, which is the only way of delivering (we learned with Conway and Coffey how little can be achieved from the back benches). So this is my views of the runners and riders.

Deasy.
By not becoming a minister this time around, he cost us very dearly. He has a first degree political education in the USA, comes from a safe seat (in the family since 1977), he is media friendly and was front bench when FG withered away fifteen years ago. Were he to have been a minister he would have created a ministerial continuity between Cullen; protecting the constituency from being pillaged by the other cities (hospital and university issue). He did not. Instead he sat on the PAC committee that took lumps out of WIT and now he is sniffing at the Ceann Comhairle job, which rules him out from being a minister and delivering anything for Waterford. Depriving him of votes would send a compelling message that we take failure seriously.

Coffey.
He is on the ministerial track. He has had to eat a huge amount of dirt for the Government failing the constituency, but he is our best hope of a minister; and he knows what he would do if he got it.

Halligan.
Voting for him is a scream of anger in the wilderness; it might be satisfying but it is very unlikely that he will ever be able to deliver ministerial level resources to the constituency. A Minister can do far more than a Jackie-Heally-Rae or Tony Gregory type bought off independent.

Conway.
Like Coffey she is on Ministerial track in the Labour party; and has eaten the most dirty for the failure to deliver. As Labour will not be totally destroyed in this election if she gets back in to a reduced party, she has the potential to be on the front-bench and then who knows. She does not appear to fully understand and emote about how stuffed Waterford is; and how angry people are; also her media skills are poor.

Cullinane.
Based on the principal that we should only send people who have the potential to be minister, we should invest in the a strong foot in the SF camp, as they are becoming closer to a party of government. He has had a good political education, is effective in the media and has the potential to be senior in the party.

Butler.
She is a long term investment; and is a good bit away from being ever in contention to be a FF minister. She needs media development. We do need a foot in the FF camp, poor prospects here at the moment. The constituencies biggest problem over the past 80 years it FFs failure to send high caliber people to Dublin, people with the potential to be a minister; it does appear we might be at it again.

Power, Dunphy, O'Sullivan.
These are unlikely to come into contention, but the three of them have something to offer. Renua and People/profit are unlikely to be sable enough partners for government; but the Greens are. Of them Grace O'Sullivan has a political education in greenpeace and the media skills to become an asset to the constituency; and is a good deal more effective than Butler. None have ministerial potential.

.....

So if your sole criteria is could we get a minister, these are my picks

Coffey
Cullinane
Conway....
And then it does not matter between O’Sullivan or Butler

Max Powers

Good post, cullinane no hope of being minister with SF in next govt.but maybe if SF were running govt fir next 2 terms, same with conway, only person on the actual ladder is coffey.with butler, haven't heard her speak but probably not a bad idea strategy wise for Waterford to have someone in the door as you suggest.

Gael23

invara wrote: »

Coffey.
He is on the ministerial track. He has had to eat a huge amount of dirt for the Government failing the constituency, but he is our best hope of a minister; and he knows what he would do if he got it.

Conway.
Like Coffey she is on Ministerial track in the Labour party; and has eaten the most dirty for the failure to deliver. As Labour will not be totally destroyed in this election if she gets back in to a reduced party, she has the potential to be on the front-bench and then who knows. She does not appear to fully understand and emote about how stuffed Waterford is; and how angry people are; also her media skills are poor.

Cullinane.
Based on the principal that we should only send people who have the potential to be minister, we should invest in the a strong foot in the SF camp, as they are becoming closer to a party of government. He has had a good political education, is effective in the media and has the potential to be senior in the party.


Power, Dunphy, O'Sullivan.
These are unlikely to come into contention, but the three of them have something to offer. Renua and People/profit are unlikely to be sable enough partners for government; but the Greens are. Of them Grace O'Sullivan has a political education in greenpeace and the media skills to become an asset to the constituency; and is a good deal more effective than Butler. None have ministerial potential.

.....

So if your sole criteria is could we get a minister, these are my picks

Coffey
Cullinane
Conway....
And then it does not matter between O’Sullivan or Butler

Ciara Conways days as a TD are numbered unfortunately, she's a decent person but a member of the wrong party.
I'd agree with you on Coffey, I should say I'm a supporter of his. Hopefully the realistic prospect of him being a Minister will gather support.

Mailo Power and Grace O'Sullivan are both good people. I don't agree with them on a number of issues but ill be giving them 2 and 3 as a personal vote.

On Adams post. I know theres a strong left vote inWaterford but is it strong enough for SF and Halligan to come 2nd and 3rd?

AdMMM

When you combine the left vote AND the increased independent vote, there's definitely enough.

spookwoman

So far the only people to knock on the door are John Halligans and David Cullinanes canvassers. Greens and joint Coffey and Deasy no knock. Mary Butlers leaflet drops Monday and today with no knock. Someone on twitter saying about Butler when i said no one knocked on 2 days "[font=Arial, sans-serif]This is untrue, as part of canvass team I know every door knocked on,we have only canvassed once" [/font]

[font=Arial, sans-serif]Edit seems they were postal drops and no one has called yet. [/font]

Sully

I'm not buying the "nobody knocked" line. Over the years the amount of doors you knock at that nobody answers despite it being obvious someone is there is mad. I remember knocking once and the person was in the room beside the front door reading the paper. Short of hammering on the door, it ends up being a drop. Or houses with four bells and you don't know whether to press one or all.

Canvass teams do knock. The larger teams do anyway