2016 General Election Waterford

deeks

I see Mary Butler has been cut to 1/5 with paddy powers to win the last seat with Paudie pushed out to 8/11. Interesting to see how this plays out.

Wanderer78

wow, we re in some serious trouble now folks after that debate. i think things are gonna get really scary for this country from here on in

barneystinson

deeks wrote: »

I see Mary Butler has been cut to 1/5 with paddy powers to win the last seat with Paudie pushed out to 8/11. Interesting to see how this plays out.

In paddy powers favour, clearly based on those odds, serious margin for the bookies there.

Max Powers

deeks wrote: »

I see Mary Butler has been cut to 1/5 with paddy powers to win the last seat with Paudie pushed out to 8/11. Interesting to see how this plays out.

Deeks, can you explain that for non betting people...do the bookies think may butler is more likely to be voted in and Coffey less likely to get in with latest odds.I don't know what odds cut and pushed out mean.

dzilla

Max Powers wrote: »

Deeks, can you explain that for non betting people...do the bookies think may butler is more likely to be voted in and Coffey less likely to get in with latest odds.I don't know what odds cut and pushed out mean.

yes for mary butler if you bet 5€ you would win 1€ profit

if you bet 11€ for coffey you would win 3€ profit

so MB is the favourite

deeks

dzilla wrote: »

yes for mary butler if you bet 5€ you would win 1€ profit

if you bet 11€ for coffey you would win 3€ profit

so MB is the favourite

Thats basically it but an €11 bet for Coffey would actually win €8 profit rather than €3 so Mary Butler is a significant favourite to be elected. This is an about turn from the odds earlier in the week which had Paudie as a slight favourite to get the final seat.

dzilla

deeks wrote: »

Thats basically it but an €11 bet for Coffey would actually win €8 profit rather than €3 so Mary Butler is a significant favourite to be elected. This is an about turn from the odds earlier in the week which had Paudie as a slight favourite to get the final seat.

yes sorry my maths where wrong. too early no coffee lol

noby

Interesting if it pans out that way. We'll be replacing two outgoing govt. TDs (one a junior minister) with one SF and one FF newcomer.
I guess, as a constituency we are spreading our bets and with Ind/FG/SF/FF we are bound to have at least one in govt.

Max Powers

dzilla wrote: »

yes sorry my maths where wrong. too early no coffee lol

8/11 means bet 8 get 11 back,3 Euro profit.but 1/5 on butler o one€ will get 5,4 Euro profit.surely this means some the bookies is willing to give you more money that butler has less chance.
....as I said I'm not a betting person but on a lighter side of things,I won't be taking tips from any of ye ;-)

noby

Max Powers wrote: »

8/11 means bet 8 get 11 back,3 Euro profit.but 1/5 on butler o one€ will get 5,4 Euro profit.surely this means some the bookies is willing to give you more money that butler has less chance.
....as I said I'm not a betting person but on a lighter side of things,I won't be taking tips from any of ye ;-)

No, you have it all backwards. Butler is on shorter odds, i.e. bookies think she is more likely to get through.

Deise Vu

Max Powers wrote: »

8/11 means bet 8 get 11 back,3 Euro profit.but 1/5 on butler o one€ will get 5,4 Euro profit.surely this means some the bookies is willing to give you more money that butler has less chance.
....as I said I'm not a betting person but on a lighter side of things,I won't be taking tips from any of ye ;-)

8/11 means win €8 for every €11 bet; 1/5 means win €1 for every €5 bet. Winning bets get their stakes back (because you haven't lost!). Jaysus lads I'd love to be ye're bookies. I don't even bet!

If those odds are correct then Mary Butler is a nailed on certainty but Paudie Coffey is also odds-on (ie more likely to win than lose). I presume one or more of Cullinane, Deasy and Halligan are also near enough evens or else the bookies are even more criminal than usual with their odds.

Cabaal

DPA complaint being made against John D. Walsh

http://www.wlrfm.com/news-single.php?cat=1&id=61553

A Waterford woman has raised data protection concerns after she was contacted by text from the campaign of pro-life candidate John D. Walsh. The text asked the recipient to give the Christian Democrat first preference, however Amy McCollum says she has no idea how her phone number was gotten. She said she raised the issue with the candidate on his Facebook page, but didn't get a satisfactory answer. Speaking to WLRfm News, John Walsh said that his team had contacted people who had been signed up to the pro-life campaign, but apologised if the recipients were inconvenienced. He also said his campaign won't be sending any more texts.

deisemum

Cabaal wrote: »

DPA complaint being made against John D. Walsh

http://www.wlrfm.com/news-single.php?cat=1&id=61553

His response is disgraceful and there are now other people that are saying he did the same thing to them.

kayaksurfbum

This is the response he gave to how did you get the phone number!

MRnotlob606

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

This is the response he gave to how did you get the phone number!

This guy is the gift that keeps on giving. Hope he does not get in now or ever in any political forum.

His brochure says he want's to tackle "Political correctness" which is more or less a code word for pro-choice or marriage equality.He's been a vocal opponent of both. He's a Fine Gael failure.

AdMMM

Deise Vu wrote: »

8/11 means win €8 for every €11 bet; 1/5 means win €1 for every €5 bet. Winning bets get their stakes back (because you haven't lost!). Jaysus lads I'd love to be ye're bookies. I don't even bet!

If those odds are correct then Mary Butler is a nailed on certainty but Paudie Coffey is also odds-on (ie more likely to win than lose). I presume one or more of Cullinane, Deasy and Halligan are also near enough evens or else the bookies are even more criminal than usual with their odds.

Overound is 460%, so massive margin

Cabaal

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

This is the response he gave to how did you get the phone number!

WOW.........just wow
What an utterly pitiful dig by him in his response. What a desperate excuse for a politician.
I note he then later deleted the posts.

Based on his previously responses to issues he clearly has issues with (gay people having equality) he has no problem even hating catholic priests for their neutral stance on marriage equality back in 2015

https://twitter.com/johndwalsh/status/580363060470276096

kayaksurfbum

He has issue's. But at least he dosent hide his opinions.

I get the feeling from some wanabe politicians that they hide most of their true opinions.

deisemum

kayaksurfbum wrote: »

He has issue's. But at least he dosent hide his opinions.

I get the feeling from some wanabe politicians that they hide most of their true opinions.

He's definitely got issues and he's not keen on women having their own opinions, I had to run him when he knocked on my door recently.

When you see that he works as a Direct Marketing Database Consultant it makes you wonder where he got peoples information.

Gardner

Had a pint tonight with a good friend heavily involved in SF in Waterford. He said internal polls have Cullinane polling about 7,200 1st pref from feedback from doors etc. Internally they allowing 7.5% of those either to not to vote or change their minds at a worst case scenario. So worst case, he will poll 6,700 1st pref. they are delighted with the campaign so far but he further admitted the 3rd seat is looking less likely. Their results show Deasy, Halligan and Butler taking the 1st 3 seats with Cullinane and Coffey in a battle for the last. It They believe it’s all going down to the wire on the last count with Conway’s transfers! I like to see Cullinane pipping Coffey but I do think he needs to be around 7,500 1st pref to get there! Looking forward to the count on Saturday.

Cabaal

deisemum wrote: »

When you see that he works as a Direct Marketing Database Consultant it makes you wonder where he got peoples information.

Yeah I did spot that, certainly makes you question where he got the data alright. Regardless, his actions and flippant attitude makes you question the safety of the personal data he is supposed to be handling in his workplace.

Wanderer78

Cabaal wrote:

Yeah I did spot that, certainly makes you question where he got the data alright. Regardless, his actions and flippant attitude makes you question the safety of the personal data he is supposed to be handling in his workplace.

Moral of the story, be extremely careful with your personal data all the time

Jamie2k9

Gardner wrote: »

Had a pint tonight with a good friend heavily involved in SF in Waterford. He said internal polls have Cullinane polling about 7,200 1st pref from feedback from doors etc. Internally they allowing 7.5% of those either to not to vote or change their minds at a worst case scenario. So worst case, he will poll 6,700 1st pref. they are delighted with the campaign so far but he further admitted the 3rd seat is looking less likely. Their results show Deasy, Halligan and Butler taking the 1st 3 seats with Cullinane and Coffey in a battle for the last. It They believe it’s all going down to the wire on the last count with Conway’s transfers! I like to see Cullinane pipping Coffey but I do think he needs to be around 7,500 1st pref to get there! Looking forward to the count on Saturday.

Think I will give Deasy N02, Coffey NO1 (planned NO2) and Conway NO3 if it keeps SF out. Will get some family to vote this way to.

Will be shocked if Butler takes a seat.

Any other FG votes need to give Conway a pref.

O Riain

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Think I will give Deasy N02, Coffey NO1 (planned NO2) and Conway NO3 if it keeps SF out. Will get some family to vote this way to.

Will be shocked if Butler takes a seat.

Any other FG votes need to give Conway a pref.

Man, this is not 2011, this is 2016 where Ciara Conway was found out to be the biggest political waste of space ever known to the good people of Waterford and where Fine Gael had a good chance at reform and helping Waterford but instead reformed nothing and sold Waterford a pack of filthy lies. Get with the times, vote with the times.

Was your post a joke? Say it was a joke please.

longshanks

Is there any point in voting for Deasy now, if he's more or less likely to be the next Ceann Comhairle?

Wanderer78

im done with the four main parties now anyway. relics, all carrying baggage. time for something new in irish politics. sadly true change probably wont be coming from this election.

Jamie2k9

O Riain wrote: »

Man, this is not 2011, this is 2016 where Ciara Conway was found out to be the biggest political waste of space ever known to the good people of Waterford and where Fine Gael had a good chance at reform and helping Waterford but instead reformed nothing and sold Waterford a pack of filthy lies. Get with the times, vote with the times.

Was your post a joke? Say it was a joke please.

Not a joke, the only people who will be better off under SF are those on welfare, do the maths of their policies those on the lowest wages around 18,000 and up will save nothing with SF, outside 160 Water and LPT even if you calculated IW and the highest LPT band you will still be better off under FG/LAB policies by between 300-500 yearly.

I would be hoping for a FG majority, I hate LAB but a small price to pay.

All I would say is those on low incomes, do your sums tonight, SF have headline grabbing polices but you will not be better off. Journal had a good article earlier this week about it.

Royal Legend

Deasy = Waste of a vote because he has done nothing previously and intends to do even less going forward

Coffey = About to get ousted hopefully, has offered nothing either

Conway = not an hope of getting back in, nice girl, not a politician though

Butler = looks more than likely she will get a seat, i doubt that she will be the only FF surprise winner.

Halligan = expect he will get back in fairly handily

Cullihane = 50/50 vs either Coffey or Butler IMO, if he fails this time he may pack it in.

Gael23

I'm slightly biased as a Coffey supporter but I think he can do it. He should get a lot of Conways transfers which I think will get him across the line. FF are transfer toxic still

AdMMM

Gael23 wrote: »

I'm slightly biased as a Coffey supporter but I think he can do it. He should get a lot of Conways transfers which I think will get him across the line. FF are transfer toxic still

Conway will perform below the national average for Labour who were as low as 4% in some opinion polls. Doesn't exactly leave many transfers to Coffey. That being said, I think Coffey should be fine.