Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

catbear

While I agree with the Paddypower odds of a FG/FG coalition I'm not so sure about Funchion winning the seat. The FG/FF odds have been consistent throughout all the various poles but the upswing for funchion is only recent and chimeric at best, it will still be a battle with Phelan.

My surprise would be if Aylward fails to get reelected. Are there enough FFers left to ensure two seats?

blackcard

road_high wrote: »

Heard her on radio again today. More car crash stuff, needless to say.

Funchion was shockingly poor but will be elected.

cameramonkey

catbear wrote: »

While I agree with the Paddypower odds of a FG/FG coalition I'm not so sure about Funchion winning the seat. The FG/FF odds have been consistent throughout all the various poles but the upswing for funchion is only recent and chimeric at best, it will still be a battle with Phelan.

My surprise would be if Aylward fails to get reelected. Are there enough FFers left to ensure two seats?

I think Aylward and McGuinness will get in, plenty of FF votes around. The battle will not be for Funchion for the last seat, she will be elected a lot sooner than that.

citykat

Bar the 2007 election, Labour have had a seat in CW/KK for a long time now since 1961. While he was popular, Pattison was always well down in the polls come election time. KK/CW always has been FF/FG dominated. IMO there is still a solid labour vote in this constituency. Byelections are always punitive on government parties. The labour candidate wasn't that far behind SF in that election. Phelan will receive the FF/FG transfers/preferences. Funchion will gain the transfers/preferences from the socialists. This could be one of the closest seats in the entire election.

Faugheen

I tell you one thing, I wouldn't be surprised to see both LAB and SF get a seat.

John Paul Phelan will dominate South KK, I just don't see where Aylward will get the votes from. McGuinness and Aylward are two completely different camps. It's like John Deasy and Paudie Coffey in Waterford. Deasy will dominate Dungarvan but won't transfer as strongly to Coffey. Coffey is the man who backs Enda Kenny while Deasy is the rebel, similar to McGuinness.

catbear

Faugheen wrote: »

McGuinness and Aylward are two completely different camps.

That's what I was thinking but they'd still give eachother their second vote. As Citykat said Phelan will get transfers from FF and FG and Funchion will get transfers from the left overs.

If the smaller parties and independents are eliminated early then there's less hope for Funchion transfers. The narrow field of the Byelection made her result look good but will it stands up in full battle?

kikel

Looks like Patrick McKEE and his ex campaign manager Adrian Shanahan have fallen out and will be going to court over expenses.

They must have fallen out badly as the last line looks very malicious from Adrian Shanahan.

Bowlardo

kikel wrote: »

Looks like Patrick McKEE and his ex campaign manager Adrian Shanahan have fallen out and will be going to court over expenses.

They must have fallen out badly as the last line looks very malicious from Adrian Shanahan.

Jesus could he not have held his tongue until after the election

kikel

Bowlardo wrote: »

Jesus could he not have held his tongue until after the election

Yeah the guy is a loose cannon. Imagine marketing yourself as a campaign manager to going to another extreme of sabotaging the candidate.

Nokia6230i

kikel wrote: »

Yeah the guy is a loose cannon. Imagine marketing yourself as a campaign manager to going to another extreme of sabotaging the candidate.

In his Twitter bio, Mr. Shanahan describes himself as a "Philanthropist"......what's the definition of this in legal and/or laymans terms or is it simply a vague notion that someone affords themselves to boost their ego?

Actual wording (excluding website) > "Irish Man | Kayaker | Maker of Stuff | Philanthropist | Family Man | ****e talker"

Genuine question even if it is slightly fecklessly worded.....

Captain Havoc

Nokia6230i wrote: »

In his Twitter bio, Mr. Shanahan describes himself as a "Philanthropist"......what's the definition of this in legal and/or laymans terms or is it simply a vague notion that someone affords themselves to boost their ego?

A person who seeks to promote the welfare of others, especially by the generous donation of money to good causes:

RobertKK

road_high wrote: »

Often see this ole red herring trotted out, it's gets tiresome...irrelevant as they weren't even in power so how do we know what the outcome would have been. To say otherwise is just an assumption and not relevant. I prefer deal in facts rather than fantasy myself and fact IS FF were there and are responsible for handing the keys to the IMF and all ensuing carnage that followed.

I don't see it as a red herring, losing the 2007 election was actually winning back in 2007.

FG and all the parties were trying to out do each other in the election, despite all the talk about one party destroying the country, it is amazing how blind all the parties were.

Now FG are looking irresponsible with their get rid of the USC entirely, won't keep it for themselves and their high salaries.

A lot of people think the Troika did a better job when they controlled the economy, than the much more free spending that has gone on since they left.

The facts are FG wanted to make it easier for first time buyers in 2007, or throw more petrol on the fire, on what was an over inflated property bubble.

So the reason FG are not doing great in the polls is, they lied to elected, burn the bondholders they said...none were burnt.
They never want to accept that Greek concessions helped Ireland, they like to make out they are concessions they got.
Enda said before the last election he would bed the trolley scandal. It is worse than ever.

Most see the economic collapse that hit Ireland not as a one country event, but an event that hit many countries - banks across Europe and the US had to be bailed out, the ECB had to audit banks across the Eurozone and it was a banking problem across Europe.

Blaming FF alone is lazy, all the political class had spending plans for the 2007 election which said 'everything is fine, nothing will ever go wrong'. The red herring is to make out that anything could have been done to change what was coming down the path.
FG would have had the Troika in as well. When banks were collapsing in the US and all the money the Irish banks had already lent out, FG or any party wouldn't have avoided the bailout.

The problem FG have right now is they are looking irresponsible with wanting the USC removed completely, and the whole fiscal space crap they were going on about but which seems to have disappeared as people saw what they were trying to do.
Last election, their five point plan, this election the fiscal space.

Then Enda has not looked impressive in the debates.
Micheal Martin has been generally accepted as the best performer of the main parties, and I think we will see a swing towards FF in the final week.

People are fed up of FG blaming FF, it is FG saying the people are too stupid to see what was happening on a macro level, and only see what happened at the local level. Most people are more intelligent than what FG are perceiving them to be.
This is why I believe there is no red herring, and why FG are falling in the polls.

Mankbag

Sky King wrote: »

The bookies have a boner for Funchion but I don't buy it myself. PP has her at 1/7 behind John McGuinness for example. There's no way she is that popular.

There are too many political heavyweight candidates in this constituency and the bye-election (which she did well in) is not a good barometer imo. JMcG is going to mop up a lot of that typical vote. If she gets a seat it will be the last one.

Perhaps I'll be eating my words in the days after the 26th though!

My call is 3FG 2FF.

Brave man. I wouldn't be wholly surprised if FG ended up with only ONE seat here. Really. Pat Deering is surely under pressure in Carlow while David Fitzgerald is not exactly a household name in Kilkenny.

Still, the safe bet looks FF 2, FG 2 (with one or other of the above pair struggling over the finishing line) and SF (even though Kathleen Funchion, while a pleasant individual, is clearly far from the sharpest tool in the box).

Ivefoundgod

I'm based in carlow town but commenting here as it seems to be the active thread. So far I've met Jennifer Murnane O' Connor and Pat Deering at my door, i've also had someone from SF (though not Kathleen herself) ring my doorbell, drop in a leaflet and run off which I have to say was both annoying and strange. Had a guy from Renua too who was pleasant to talk to in fairness but I'd never vote for any party associated with Lucinda and told him so and he was fine about it, i'd wager he hears it a lot. Had leaflets from Ann Phelan and the PBP candidate left in as well. So out of all the candidates theres been almost no leaflet dropping from most of the KK candidates and also a lack of posters up here as well, would seem they're focusing on getting enough votes in KK which seems a risky strategy.

Personally i see 2 FG, 2 FF and one of LAB/SF getting in. I think Jennifer Murnane has no chance to be honest, she's knocking on every door in Carlow and when I spoke to her was basically saying I should vote for her because shes from Carlow and for no other reason. Anecdotally she seems to be a love/hate personality in Carlow, people either are full of praise for her or the very opposite and combined with the anti-FF feeling which still exists I can't see her ousting Deering even if he isn't exactly a great candidate himself. I would give Fitzgerald no chance to be frank, he has no profile in Carlow and I'd say when people see him on the ballot they won't even know who he is. The standard of candidates in in CW-KK is woeful overall. Will be a close call for the last two seats no matter what happens I think.

cameramonkey

Looking at the way the opinion polls are going and hearing from people in the constituency, I would change my prediction a bit. McGuiness should be in first, then Funchion, JPF or Aylward and then a fight between the remaining , hard to call who will get the last seat. So 2FF, 1SF, 1 FG and one other.

Bowlardo

when do you get you voting cards?...i have not got any yet but i am on the register

also this is quite handy

http://www.smartvote.ie/

Probably would be better if some questions were weighted though

Owryan

Bowlardo wrote: »

when do you get you voting cards?...i have not got any yet but i am on the register

also this is quite handy

http://www.smartvote.ie/

Probably would be better if some questions were weighted though

Mine arrived Tuesday or Wednesday just gone

Nokia6230i

Our PBP-AAA Candidate Ms.Adrienne Wallace will be on tonights RTE 2 Facebook Election Debate at 9:30pm.

Other candidates include Leo Varadkar, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Timmy Dooley, Mary Lou McDonald (funny how when people have a cut off Cllr. Patrick McKee for jumping ship from FF to Renua (via a brief dalliance with SF), they don't have a pop at Mary Lou for going FF > SF.), Averil Power & Eamon Ryan.

As an aside does Conor MacLiam use AAA-PBP to assert which of the two parties he belongs to?

The R2C/Right 2 Change movement isn't one he's signed up to which I find odd given he's part of the AAA/PBP amalgamation.

At yesterdays R2W/R2C etc Protest March which was attended by 10k/20k/60k/70k/80k/1 Billion (depending on what source you choose to believe) only one of the R2C Candidates (Ms.Wallace, Mr.Gilligan, Ms/Mrs. Funchion and I think maybe Mr.Walsh too?) participated & there's a definite split in the camp.

citykat

Bowlardo wrote: »

when do you get you voting cards?...i have not got any yet but i am on the register

also this is quite handy

http://www.smartvote.ie/

Probably would be better if some questions were weighted though

Got mine during the week.

citykat

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Our PBP-AAA Candidate Ms.Adrienne Wallace will be on tonights RTE 2 Facebook Election Debate at 9:30pm.

Other candidates include Leo Varadkar, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Timmy Dooley, Mary Lou McDonald (funny how when people have a cut off Cllr. Patrick McKee for jumping ship from FF to Renua (via a brief dalliance with SF), they don't have a pop at Mary Lou for going FF > SF.), Averil Power & Eamon Ryan.

As an aside does Conor MacLiam use AAA-PBP to assert which of the two parties he belongs to?

The R2C/Right 2 Change movement isn't one he's signed up to which I find odd given he's part of the AAA/PBP amalgamation.

At yesterdays R2W/R2C etc Protest March which was attended by 10k/20k/60k/70k/80k/1 Billion (depending on what source you choose to believe) only one of the R2C Candidates (Ms.Wallace, Mr.Gilligan, Ms/Mrs. Funchion and I think maybe Mr.Walsh too?) participated & there's a definite split in the camp.

They wouldn't be true socialists if there wasn't one.

Squidvicious

citykat wrote: »

They wouldn't be true socialists if there wasn't one.

To be fair, it's possibly an Irish problem too. Brendan Behan said that the first thing on the agenda of an Irish committee meeting was a split.

Seriously though, it's hard to figure out why AAA and PBP have two candidates here - McLiam and Collins. Let's face it, this constituency wouldn't exactly be home turf for hard left candidates. However, whatever chance they have with one, surely it makes little sense to run two? Are they not two sides of the same coin or is one party viewed by the other as, I don't know, too Trotskyite or something. I wouldn't like to tar all socialists with the one brush but some of them would be known for falling out over arcane ideological differences.

catbear

Ultimately Squidivcious it's about getting the face out there. They probably accept that they haven't a hop in this election but they're there because of discontent with the status quo, if that discontent grows they'll be remembered in the next vote.
Politics is a bruising commitment, not for the faint hearted and longevity counts.

Nokia6230i

KCLR FM Constituency Debate tonight from 8-10pm anchored by Matt O'Keeffe (Presenter of the Farm Show/Editor of Irish Farmers Monthly and a Farmer himself) & ably assisted by Eimear Ni Bhraonain (Producer & sometime Presenter also of KCLR Live from 10am-12 Noon Monday to Friday) who'll be time-keeping/refereeing all 15 Candidates (for their sakes I hope they've all had a shower beforehand & thrown on some deodorant/aftershave/perfume respectively!).

Feel free to text in your questions to 0833069696 or Tweet them @KCLR96FM etc.

Listen live here > http://kclr96fm.com/livestream/

jimmyw

Sounds like a flippin shambles to me, all talking together.......but whats new I suppose.

Dan Chipowski

It actually hasn't been as chaotic as I would have expected.

Kathleen Funcheon really comes across terribly. Paddy Manning spoke very well.

Owryan

Paddy put funchion in her place over the live register.

Tbh none of them are inspiring me

Ann Phelan came out swinging for about 1 min she's all quiet now

Dan Chipowski

Ann Phelan, after arriving late, has now stormed off and left the studio.

Not doing herself any favours.

catbear

Open mic is a terrible formate. If I what that kind of agro I'd hang around John st when the Hen and stags are in town.

Owryan

Road tax !!!

Ivefoundgod

Missed this but I'll listen back tomorrow, what happened with Ann Phelan storming off?