Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

Ivefoundgod

I think with aylward it all depends on transfers, I'm not sure he'll take many votes off phelan in south kilkenny and the anti FF feeling is still strong in some areas which will go against him. Having said that there's every chance he gets in, its very hard to call. Should be an interesting Saturday and if I wasn't busy i'd nearly head up to the count just out of curiosity.

cameramonkey

McGuinness or Funchion will top the poll, then JP, after that it is a bit of a lottery, Alyward should be in, and if Deering can keep ahead of Jennifer, he might make it. I heard Anne Phelan is doing well on first preference but transfers could be a problem for her. Will FG go from 3 to 1 TD?

Funchion, Mcguiness, JP, Alyward and then anyones guess.

Ivefoundgod

Funchion topping the poll seems unlikely even with the likelihood of a strong protest vote, I would say a lot of people would never vote SF under any circumstances and she is a very weak candidate. She's a great chance of getting a seat though no doubt of that.

catbear

I wouldn't dismiss a SF seat, they're heading mainstream and even the older voter who remembers Haughy with his undeclared cheques can overlook Slab murphy and see change is inevitable. The thing about Aylward is that although he's been a dead cert in the past, the fact that he's an old FF work horse with no obvious successor says it all for FF future. SF have a youth vote hot on the heals of a popular marriage vote.

Ivefoundgod

Don't think anyone is dismissing SF seat, they've a great chance here and I'd be shocked if they weren't in the running. Yeah the future doesn't look great for FF though I think Fintan Phelan here in Carlow will probably be next in line assuming Jennifer Murnane O' Conor doesn't get in and he will do will across parties I reckon.

Cabaal

catbear wrote: »

I wouldn't dismiss a SF seat, they're heading mainstream and even the older voter who remembers Haughy with his undeclared cheques can overlook Slab murphy and see change is inevitable.

I wouldn't be too sure about that,
People are uneasy with a previous murder and tax dodger being refereed to as a good person.

In addition many people are still uneasy with Gerry being in power, SF would have better chance if he stepped down. It would help their overall image and no longer can he land the party in the **** by saying stuff like slab was a good.

catbear

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

Don't think anyone is dismissing SF seat, they've a great chance here and I'd be shocked if they weren't in the running. Yeah the future doesn't look great for FF though I think Fintan Phelan here in Carlow will probably be next in line assuming Jennifer Murnane O' Conor doesn't get in and he will do will across parties I reckon.

I agree. A good distinct youth win for SF in this election will be very bad news for FF. Everyone thinks this is Gerry Adams last contest, coming behind him is a youthful idealistic crew to build future success, I don't see FF having that.
Don't know the Carlow names you mention but the fact that a weak Funchion is more likely to take a seat says it all really.

Even though I absolutely despise FF I wouldn't be unhappy to see them form a government with FG. For my whole life the two parties appeared to represent the same centre right politics taking turns in government. FF the populists would repeatedly bankrupt the country and FG would repeatedly steady the boat. Repeatedly the fickle electorate would return a giveaway FF when prudent FG got boring.

At least with a FG/FF marriage the chance for a real centre left politics in Irish could finally emerge. I reckon FG/FF will be regressive for society but ultimately this will spur cohesion amongst the new opposition and that's where I feel my personal politics lies.

I wish everyone on this forum a satisfactory day at the polls. I always thought the last election was about punishing the previous administration for the biggest calamity to befall the state since the civil war and knew then that the next election would be more important for the future.

Now I must make up my list, jig it around a bit until I'm happy, try to get Noel G Walsh up the list as high I possibly justify and then go vote and after that have long walk.

road_high

cameramonkey wrote: »

McGuinness or Funchion will top the poll, then JP, after that it is a bit of a lottery, Alyward should be in, and if Deering can keep ahead of Jennifer, he might make it. I heard Anne Phelan is doing well on first preference but transfers could be a problem for her. Will FG go from 3 to 1 TD?

Funchion, Mcguiness, JP, Alyward and then anyones guess.

Funchion will barely scrape in, if at all...as myself and everyone here has pointed out she is a desperate candidate running for a very shady party with no history of a seat in this constituency. If anything, their campaign has bombed (excuse the pun) the past few weeks in particular, Mary Lou for example sounding even more exhausted and off the mark- they've slipped to 15% nationally, possibly less here- McGuinness traditionally gets those working class, republican types votes here- I don't see anything to tell me this time be any different.

road_high

Cabaal wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure about that,
People are uneasy with a previous murder and tax dodger being refereed to as a good person.

In addition many people are still uneasy with Gerry being in power, SF would have better chance if he stepped down. It would help their overall image and no longer can he land the party in the **** by saying stuff like slab was a good.

If they ever get into power this will be the least of our worries...they want to strip away the democratic and legal structures of this country, not to mention what they will do to anyone who works for their living (i.e. the vast minority of SF supporters).

Captain Havoc

Youth vote, that is hilarious, youth don't vote and the well oiled machines know not to bother with promising them anything.

catbear

Captain Havoc wrote: »

Youth vote, that is hilarious, youth don't vote and the well oiled machines know not to bother with promising them anything.

Normally I'd be in total agreement on this but the recent marriage referendum got more of the youth activated so I'd be very wary of dismissing them.

However a lot of their preferences could be wasted if their candidates fall early.

road_high

catbear wrote: »

Normally I'd be in total agreement on this but the recent marriage referendum got more of the youth activated so I'd be very wary of dismissing them.

However a lot of their preferences could be wasted if their candidates fall early.

There is an assumption out there the majority of the youth vote will be for radical/cuckoo land parties like SF/AAA etc. I think that narrative is not entirely accurate myself, a lot of 3rd level students for instance are very focused on their careers and futures and naturally gravitate towards FG as a result.

Ivefoundgod

catbear wrote: »

I agree. A good distinct youth win for SF in this election will be very bad news for FF. Everyone thinks this is Gerry Adams last contest, coming behind him is a youthful idealistic crew to build future success, I don't see FF having that.
Don't know the Carlow names you mention but the fact that a weak Funchion is more likely to take a seat says it all really.

Even though I absolutely despise FF I wouldn't be unhappy to see them form a government with FG. For my whole life the two parties appeared to represent the same centre right politics taking turns in government. FF the populists would repeatedly bankrupt the country and FG would repeatedly steady the boat. Repeatedly the fickle electorate would return a giveaway FF when prudent FG got boring.

At least with a FG/FF marriage the chance for a real centre left politics in Irish could finally emerge. I reckon FG/FF will be regressive for society but ultimately this will spur cohesion amongst the new opposition and that's where I feel my personal politics lies.

I wish everyone on this forum a satisfactory day at the polls. I always thought the last election was about punishing the previous administration for the biggest calamity to befall the state since the civil war and knew then that the next election would be more important for the future.

Now I must make up my list, jig it around a bit until I'm happy, try to get Noel G Walsh up the list as high I possibly justify and then go vote and after that have long walk.

I feel similarly though I don't know if i could take 5 years of FG/FF. We need a proper left in Ireland and hopefully the SDs and Labour can provide it in the future. At the moment we have far left who have no chance of getting elected as their policies are complete fantasy if they even exist at all. Having said that I'm now leaning towards it being a FG/LAB and a few others plucked from here and there to make up the numbers. Hopefully I'm proven wrong.

Personally I'll be giving Noonan my number 1 and Deering number 2 in order to try keep a TD in Carlow, will make up my mind later after that.

catbear

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

I feel similarly though I don't know if i could take 5 years of FG/FF.

If that's happens, which is most likely, I give it three years max. In all the different combinations I can't see our next administration going full term.

As for the assumption of the youth vote going to the radicals I agree but i've been surprised in meeting a good share of third level graduates who are going SF to shake things as they see anything on offer in the status quo.

They know Gerry Adams and his old guard are on the way out, although they won't go quietly, but its inevitable.

Cabaal

road_high wrote: »

If they ever get into power this will be the least of our worries...they want to strip away the democratic and legal structures of this country, not to mention what they will do to anyone who works for their living (i.e. the vast minority of SF supporters).

I'd tend to agree with the view that SF seem to be promising the world to you if you don't work or earn very little, but if you earn over 19k then many of their promises don't benefit you with the exception of water and LPT...big wow.

Cabaal

catbear wrote: »

Normally I'd be in total agreement on this but the recent marriage referendum got more of the youth activated so I'd be very wary of dismissing them.

The marriage ref was something most younger people could relate to, they had gay friends, cousins etc. I know a few people who made sure to register and vote in it.

But despite being registered for this election they have no interest in any of the partys and won't be voting. I have a feeling much of the "youth vote" will go in much the same way....after all there's no "coming home to vote" happening for this election.

[EDIT]
I would add that its a shame really, but the reality is until you are working, paying a mortgage etc you don't tend to worry about the government so much for a load of stuff and you generally have little interest in the budget each year when its on the TV. Once reality hits then you pay lots of attention to the budget and you even watch it

road_high

Cabaal wrote: »

I'd tend to agree with the view that SF seem to be promising the world to you if you don't work or earn very little, but if you earn over 19k then many of their promises don't benefit you with the exception of water and LPT...big wow.

Add that to the Greek style chaos they will bring (Pierce Doherty is on record recently saying we should be more like Greece), you'd be lucky to even hold onto a job at all.

Squidvicious

road_high wrote: »

Add that to the Greek style chaos they will bring (Pierce Doherty is on record recently saying we should be more like Greece), you'd be lucky to even hold onto a job at all.

Well, if you're anti Sinn Fein, then Fine Gael is the party you should vote for. Let's face it, it'll be a cold day in hell before FG and SF will ever be in coalition. I could easily see FF going into bed with SF if the numbers stacked up.

citykat

Just spotted Fitzgerald driving past my polling station with his big platter puss plastered all over his SUV. Surely flouting the prohibition (postering near polling stations)...

Owryan

citykat wrote: »

Just spotted Fitzgerald driving past my polling station with his big platter puss plastered all over his SUV. Surely flouting the prohibition (postering near polling stations)...

There is a sf poster on the pole outside my polling station sure

catbear

citykat wrote: »

Just spotted Fitzgerald driving past my polling station with his big platter puss plastered all over his SUV. Surely flouting the prohibition (postering near polling stations)...

I don't driving past is an issue, it's an actual physical presence that seeks to engage directly with the voter.
It goes back to the days when parties would have prefilled voting forms ready to put into peoples hands as they went in, that's why the ballot is now franked in front of you and why you have to show the ballot officer that you're placing the same franked ballot paper into the box.

adrianshanahan

My prediction.

J Mc Guinness (FF)
JP Phelan (FG)
P Derring (FG)
B Aylward (FF)
A Phelan (L) (this seat will be a dog fight with SF running very close)

The government will be FG FF coalition. Another general inside 2 years if not 6 months.

brettmirl

I'd say they will still be in the count centre on Monday night. Expect a recount or two!

kikel

adrianshanahan wrote: »

My prediction.

J Mc Guinness (FF)
JP Phelan (FG)
P Derring (FG)
B Aylward (FF)
A Phelan (L) (this seat will be a dog fight with SF running very close)

The government will be FG FF coalition. Another general inside 2 years if not 6 months.

So what's the story adrian? Did you purposely go out of your way to make mince meat of your ex client? As an ex client could u not of waited till after the election to try and destroy McKee?

Captain Havoc

brettmirl wrote: »

I'd say they will still be in the count centre on Monday night. Expect a recount or two!

Please don't say that, I've to work there until it's done and dusted.

catbear

Where is the count being held?

Ivefoundgod

Cillin Hill

linny

Ivefoundgod wrote:

Cillin Hill

Don't think there are any passes left, noon yesterday was the deadline to apply for a pass for the count centre but I could be wrong

Cabaal

Great news in relation to FG 2.0

https://twitter.com/TJ_Politics/status/703590479590531072

cameramonkey

FG in Carlow/KK will be having a conniption, they seem to have done it again, FF get 3 seats.