Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

Ivefoundgod

PaulKK wrote: »

I have heard there was a decision made to restrict access to the public as there was a risk of disorder inside due to one of the candidates running in the election and their previous behaviour.

I won't elaborate more than that but you can read between the lines. Pity as it is nice to be able to see things play out in person.

Wouldn't happen to be one of the R2C candidates would it? If you don't want to say could you PM me? Very interested as I didn't hear anything about this, my understanding was there was only a certain number of people allowed into the place at any one time.

blackcard

highgiant1985 wrote: »

I would have assumed (maybe wrongly) that its a building capacity issue for health and safety reasons? i.e. the overall attendance number allowed would have been set by the local Fire Marshall or who ever has responsibility for determining this. If that's the case then I think its perfectly reasonable.

There was never any problem getting access previously and there was plenty of room to accommodate anyone who wanted to attend

Fortyjocks

highgiant1985 wrote: »

I would have assumed (maybe wrongly) that its a building capacity issue for health and safety reasons? i.e. the overall attendance number allowed would have been set by the local Fire Marshall or who ever has responsibility for determining this. If that's the case then I think its perfectly reasonable.

I think safety concerns re numbers is fair enough but the issue here is being told you have to get tickets off party members etc. which is completely wrong - there was plenty of capacity when I visited and they should just issue passes until capacity is reached and not distinguish you by who you know or having to wear a party badge. Another half baked Irish solution - a disgrace. And there were enough guards there to take care of any candidate who got out of order but again that should not be allowed to disrupt the democratic rights of voters in the area to see the vote!

catbear

Would they have cattle prods and holding pens in Killin hill to deal with that sort of stuff?

Owryan

Pat Deering benefitted from the fact most FG supporters gave him a preference.

Jennifer Murnane suffered from the fact that there was no one who was going to transfer to her. The other Carlow candidates eliminated before her were all hard left and they went to sf

Cabaal

catbear wrote: »

Poor Paddy Mannings canvasing of nursing homes didn't get him the postal vote.
Anyone could tell you they'd vote along the old traditional lines.

Wonder who was backing him?

He was pushing the pro life stuff pretty hard so I'd imagine he had funding for the Irish pro life groups who in turn get money from the USA.

He had a tonne of posters up, certainly out numbered what labour had...and without a doubt far more then any other independent by a good mile.

cameramonkey

It panned out pretty much like many people saw it. It is notable however that a few anti SF posters could not see the possibility of SF getting a seat despite the opinion polls and the expert prediction, it seems for some that reality can be ignored all too easily. It was funny to see people so sure that Funchion had no hope and then for her to get elected so easily.

Congratulations to all the candidates that run, it is often a thankless task.

Ivefoundgod

Not sure who was in charge of the FG strategy but whoever it is deserves serious praise. Incredible job with vote management. Would love to see a full breakdown of all the polling stations and where deerings transfers came from.

I was one of those who thought Funchion would only get the 4th or 5th seat and certainly didn't see her doing as well as she did, thought she'd have a battle to get in but I couldn't have been more wrong. It could all be for nothing for Deering as we could be back at the polls shortly and god knows what way it'll go then.

catbear

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

Not sure who was in charge of the FG strategy but whoever it is deserves serious praise. Incredible job with vote management. Would love to see a full breakdown of all the polling stations and where deerings transfers came from.

I was one of those who thought Funchion would only get the 4th or 5th seat and certainly didn't see her doing as well as she did, thought she'd have a battle to get in but I couldn't have been more wrong. It could all be for nothing for Deering as we could be back at the polls shortly and god knows what way it'll go then.

I'd second that. SF should start preparing a second candidate on that performance.

The high 1st ct for FF but lack of transfers shows that voters have merely returned to their favorite candidates rather than their candidates party throughout the country.

There's a generational shift happening. I wonder if the SDs will venture this way.

Formosa

Question for any of you well up on the counting process:

When a surplus is being distributed (eg JPP), how do they determine which voting papers to use? I'm thinking that there must be an element of randomness to it?

And in the event of a recount, presumably they will use the identical surplus papers again....

dathi

Formosa wrote: »

Question for any of you well up on the counting process:

When a surplus is being distributed (eg JPP), how do they determine which voting papers to use? I'm thinking that there must be an element of randomness to it?

And in the event of a recount, presumably they will use the identical surplus papers again....

no when surplus is being distributed they count all his papers and work out a precentage for each second choice canditate and use the precentage to distribute the surplas vote to remaining canditates

Formosa

Of course! Quite simple really.

Thank you.

Dymo

Formosa wrote: »

Of course! Quite simple really.

Thank you.

But not exactly the right answer for your question, as you were asking about (JPP)

They will only count all his papers if he is elected on the first count, after the first count, only the votes above the quota are examined and used to decide the ratio for the allocation of the surplus votes.

He was 2,531 over the quota and only these votes would be distributed and they will pick the 2,531 that brought him over the quota so there is a randomness to it.

In the case of a recount, it gets complicated, but yes, after each count the ballot papers are stamped with the count number so it's possible to work backwards.

Squidvicious

catbear wrote: »

I'd second that. SF should start preparing a second candidate on that performance.

The high 1st ct for FF but lack of transfers shows that voters have merely returned to their favorite candidates rather than their candidates party throughout the country.

There's a generational shift happening. I wonder if the SDs will venture this way.

Funchion got 12.4%. There's nothing like enough support for two SF candidates, particularly as Labour should rebound to some degree at the next election. Indeed, given that they're still not terribly transfer friendly, a small drop in support would leave them vulnerable to losing out.

catbear

Squidvicious wrote: »

Funchion got 12.4%. There's nothing like enough support for two SF candidates, particularly as Labour should rebound to some degree at the next election. Indeed, given that they're still not terribly transfer friendly, a small drop in support would leave them vulnerable to losing out.

I agree but they'd be mad to not to consider it.
This election has seen the rise of the independents although not in Kilkenny.

From reading the results Funchion got a lot of transfers from the independents which saw her pull away from Murnane.
The FG transfer machine is good and I can't see it being beaten but where I see a weakness is Aylward. This FF vote renaissance seems a return to old hands but they're far off the 30% that prior 2011 they'd always got. It is something to see two elections in a row FF not being the major party.

If the rise of the independents splutters out it will be SF and not FF that will garner party votes.

Squidvicious

catbear wrote: »

I agree but they'd be mad to not to consider it.
This election has seen the rise of the independents although not in Kilkenny.

From reading the results Funchion got a lot of transfers from the independents which saw her pull away from Murnane.
The FG transfer machine is good and I can't see it being beaten but where I see a weakness is Aylward. This FF vote renaissance seems a return to old hands but they're far off the 30% that prior 2011 they'd always got. It is something to see two elections in a row FF not being the major party.

If the rise of the independents splutters out it will be SF and not FF that will garner party votes.

The independents and small parties are a mixed bunch and it's hard to know where that vote comes from. Who are the Renua or Paddy Manning voters? It's hard to know where those votes would go.

However, I'd say that one big brake on the SF vote in PBP/AAA. They took 4.4%, even here in a mainly rural, conservative county. I'd say many of those votes would go to SF if PBP/AAA disappeared. Arguably, without AAA, a second SF TD could be a possibility at the next election(albeit, they'd need a significant rise in vote to do so). As it is, however, they seem to me to be splitting the left wing vote and the division of the left wing vote makes it much harder for the left to challenge in Ireland. Whatever about SF(who could conceivably challenge for power some day), AAA/PBP will never be much more than a fringe party.

catbear

Well Funchion got nearly a thousand off the AAA vote and 700 off the Greens, oddly McKee got 200 off Wallace so your point about meandering votes is validated.

What I found personally interesting is that the young SF votes generally seems to come from the same place as the older FF vote. It does seem like a transition.

I'll be very interested to see if it's borne out in the next vote, however soon that may be.

Ultimately it's not the FF domination I had been dreading.

DerryRed

Squidvicious wrote: »

Funchion got 12.4%. There's nothing like enough support for two SF candidates, particularly as Labour should rebound to some degree at the next election. Indeed, given that they're still not terribly transfer friendly, a small drop in support would leave them vulnerable to losing out.

This is what happened to SF in Donegal. They had 2 sitting TDs and ran 3 candidates instead of the usual 2. They ended up splitting the vote and only got 1 TD this time around.

Squidvicious

catbear wrote: »

Well Funchion got nearly a thousand off the AAA vote and 700 off the Greens, oddly McKee got 200 off Wallace so your point about meandering votes is validated.

What I found personally interesting is that the young SF votes generally seems to come from the same place as the older FF vote. It does seem like a transition.

I'll be very interested to see if it's borne out in the next vote, however soon that may be.

Ultimately it's not the FF domination I had been dreading.

You could well be right. I'm not at all pro-SF, but I could see them becoming the new FF at some point in the future. However, it'll take a good few years if it happens. Most under-35's may regard SF's IRA links as history, but it's still a real issue for everyone else. That's borne out by the fact that their highest support is amongst the young who can barely remember pre-ceasefire Ireland.

They'll also have to become more centrist as opposed to left-wing. FF is called a right wing party, but in my view, it's always been more of a centrist and "try to please everybody" party. SF's is travelling along that road in my view. Their manifesto wanted the minimum wage increased to €9.65 IIRC. Not too radical there. Their wealth tax is now a possibility as opposed to a commitment as it was in the past.

I know Ireland's changing, but we don't like political ideologies too much. After years of austerity we've stuck with the tried and trusted parties by and large but when we go for an alternative, we've gone for independents who we think we can trust as opposed to left wing ideologues. PBP/AAA have gained far less traction here, than their equivalents in Greece for example and I can't ever see the hard left getting a sniff of power in Ireland. We're a moderate bunch in Ireland.

femur61

If SF ever got into power we would become another Greece. Don't people realise we have to pay taxes in order to support the state, pay social welfare etc. SF target the most economically vulnerable in society, promising them they will double their pensions, increase their social welfare, give them free houses for their 5 children, but increase taxes of the people who are paying their social welfare. The higher taxed will simply move to a low tax economy. Will large multinationals come her if they staff aren't here because it is not salary attractive?

Also, I won't mention their crime links and murderous members and pedophiles.

Squidvicious

femur61 wrote: »

If SF ever got into power we would become another Greece. Don't people realise we have to pay taxes in order to support the state, pay social welfare etc. SF target the most economically vulnerable in society, promising them they will double their pensions, increase their social welfare, give them free houses for their 5 children, but increase taxes of the people who are paying their social welfare. The higher taxed will simply move to a low tax economy. Will large multinationals come her if they staff aren't here because it is not salary attractive?

Also, I won't mention their crime links and murderous members and pedophiles.

As I said, I'm not at all pro-SF and, to be honest, I can't ever see the day that I'll vote for them. However, I think that they will evolve over time. Remember, extravagant promises are the stock-in-trade of most politicians. We refuse to vote for the honest politician who tells us the truth so politicians have no choice except to make promises! SF wants power and wants an overall majority and they will only get that if they change. They will never become a truly mass party in their current form. What SF is, however, is a very driven, committed party. I think that they will move to the centre of the political spectrum and that move has already started in my view, though they've still got a long, long way to go. They will also need to dissociate themselves more clearly from their criminal past - they've still got that whiff of cordite about them. How long will it take? At least two more elections, probably more. And never, unless they move to the centre ground.

catbear

femur61 wrote: »

SF target the most economically vulnerable in society, promising them they will double their pensions, increase their social welfare, give them free houses for their 5 children, but increase taxes of the people who are paying their social welfare. The higher taxed will simply move to a low tax economy. Will large multinationals come her if they staff aren't here because it is not salary attractive?

Also, I won't mention their crime links and murderous members and pedophiles.

All valid points but I don't see that making SF different from FF. The Bertie years were just one giant giveaway, something for everyone. In that time I hear people turn down social housing because each kid didn't have their own room and anything less would be poverty. By that metric I grew up in extreme poverty having to share a room with two other siblings yet this rebranding of poverty became a competition in the bubble years. Don't have cable TV? you're suffering poverty! "I'm struggling, can't update the BMW this year." (I actually had this said to me in 2008)

FF capped the liabilities of the RCC pedophile abuse compensation with tax payers money yet the nation didn't revolt like with paying for water. In a previous administration FF hindered the extradition of Fr Brendan Smyth so I reckon for letting the entire pedo peddler ring off the hook FF are over the line while SF are still doing a belly crawl after instinctively hitting the floor after the starter pistol.

For poor economic management there was no reason except populism to keep section 23 exemptions going past 2002 yet the FF message was clear.


By their financial terrorism FF have made whole generations disappear but they call it emigration. And they've defended that policy, just think of Brian Lenehan saying "we can't all live on a small island". And yet they get reelected after someone else has fixed the leaking boat.

The FF voter is a plunderer, they're the one who asks "what are going to do for me". The last administration merely had seats borrowed off FF. The difference though between Greece and Ireland is that the FF/SF voter knows there isn't a magic money tree. They're cute hores. They know that before they can send their raiding party, taxes have to be collected first. You can't plunder an empty kitty. So they've perfected a populist cycle, work hard on the ground, get elected, reward the FF voter at the nations expense and then when the whole facade collapses go to ground, change leadership, come back saying "this time it's different" and then repeat the whole cycle again.

To me FF and SF are one and the same. Both would sacrifice both moral and fiscal prudence to get votes.

They're both sincere but then again an axe murderer chasing you down the street is sincere in their intent.

Cabaal

catbear wrote: »

In that time I hear people turn down social housing because each kid didn't have their own room and anything less would be poverty.

People are still doing that sort of nonsense!

Infact people are also refusing houses outside of Dublin because they want to live in Dublin, yet they have no job etc to go to in Dublin.

We also have people who will claim they can't afford to rent in Dublin yet they don't work and they could easily afford to rent outside of Dublin but they refuse to move.

People will lambast the government in relation to such people and how they are living in poverty but for many (not all obviously) it is often their choosing to live this way so they can get something down the line. It allows them to Q jump in many instances.

catbear

The most disgusting thing from last year was the "look after our own first" coming from people who had previously no interest in looking after their own at all!

I've travelled a lot in life, I've been in some really tough places, images of the visibly desperate hunger of absolute poverty haunt me and I am in no doubt that when compared against a good sum of our fellow travelers on this earth we here on this little damp green rock currently live in an idyllic elysium.

I don't see poverty here but am berated when I say that. I do see a lot of mental poverty where people just aren't bothered, they think someone else owes them everything and that the government exist just so they can live at everyone else's expense. They hate refugees because they see them as a threat to their claim on poverty.

There's enough for everyone in this world but never enough for one persons greed.

Captain Havoc

catbear wrote: »

The most disgusting thing from last year was the "look after our own first" coming from people who had previously no interest in looking after their own at all!

I've travelled a lot in life, I've been in some really tough places, images of the visibly desperate hunger of absolute poverty haunt me and I am in no doubt that when compared against a good sum of our fellow travelers on this earth we here on this little damp green rock currently live in an idyllic elysium.

I don't see poverty here but am berated when I say that. I do see a lot of mental poverty where people just aren't bothered, they think someone else owes them everything and that the government exist just so they can live at everyone else's expense. They hate refugees because they see them as a threat to their claim on poverty.

There's enough for everyone in this world but never enough for one persons greed.

Best post I've read in this forum in a long time.

Nokia6230i

Anyway of finding out how many votes each candidate pulled from Carlow (Town & Co. combined or individually)?

Or at the least PDs & JMO'Cs; seeing folk saying Jennifers 1st Count was all Carlow & by implication PDs wasn't?

No way of backing their figures up mind so was just wondering is there any data on it please?

Also & this is my first time back in this thread since last Thursday, day before GE but amount of folk on local social media accounts (KCLR/KK People/CW Nationalist) who can't grasp how PR-STV works is dangerous/worrying; they seem/ed to think we operate (or should) on the FPTP System!

These people (to paraphrase #vinb!) have a right to vote (though thankfully perhaps registration isn't automatic; one has to be pro-active & register ones-self) but they also have responsibilities to learn how to vote, how voting works, the importance of transfers etc.

Ivefoundgod

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Anyway of finding out how many votes each candidate pulled from Carlow (Town & Co. combined or individually)?

Or at the least PDs & JMO'Cs; seeing folk saying Jennifers 1st Count was all Carlow & by implication PDs wasn't?

No way of backing their figures up mind so was just wondering is there any data on it please?

Also & this is my first time back in this thread since last Thursday, day before GE but amount of folk on local social media accounts (KCLR/KK People/CW Nationalist) who can't grasp how PR-STV works is dangerous/worrying; they seem/ed to think we operate (or should) on the FPTP System!

These people (to paraphrase #vinb!) have a right to vote (though thankfully perhaps registration isn't automatic; one has to be pro-active & register ones-self) but they also have responsibilities to learn how to vote, how voting works, the importance of transfers etc.

Carlow Tallies: All Boxes Opened & Tallied
Bobby Aylward 3.8%

Pat Deering 26.5%

David Fitzgerald 0.9%

Kathleen Funchion 13.4%

Keith Gilligan 1.7%

Conor MacLiam 1.7%

John McGuinness 4%

Paddy Manning 0.9%

Patrick McKee 2%

Jennifer Murnane O'Connor 35.5%

Malcolm Noonan 3%

Ann Phelan 5.3%

John Paul Phelan 4.7%

Adrienne Wallace 2.4%

Noel G. Walsh 0.2%

Thats from the KCLR Liveblog which you can find here; http://kclr96fm.com/election/

It goes back through all the days results. Having said that they're only tallies not official results but Pat was originally behind by .7% which stretched out as the boxes were opened though I don't remember seeing actual vote numbers until the kilkenny boxes began to be opened. She had a higher number of 1st preferences in Carlow no doubt but Pat also had a strong showing and as he said himself in The Nationalist today was only down around 900 votes since 2011 where there were two other Carlow candidates. He rightly I would think points out that those votes in 2011 seemed to go to Jennifer this time.

I saw those comments on social media, the mind boggles. Its also worrying how many of these people claim to speak for "all of carlow" or "the town" when saying jennifer was who everyone wanted. There was also several people suggesting there was some kind of fraud commited by Deering though I noticed Brian O' Donoghue correcting them. Mad to think that people seem to think they speak for everyone when around 64% of carlow people didn't give her their 1st preference. Hardly "all of carlow".

Nokia6230i

Thanks for percentages & link to KCLRs Blog too; had been following it Saturday but came late to it so only saw the 2pm Final Tally.

Yeah, the "all of Carlow" and/or "the town" lines grate quite a bit alright; exaggerated bollocksology by sensationalist DM Readers perhaps?

The Tallies'll help me rebut some of that bollocksology; those posters seem to think it was JMO'C v PD forgetting A), the other 2 Carlow Candidates & , the other 11 Candidates.

Ivefoundgod

Now that I think about it I don't think there was ever a total of votes for County Carlow, I'd say they're mixing up the first count as the Carlow count which had her well ahead of Deering by about 2000 votes I think.

Yeah there doesn't seem to be any talking to those types, saw plenty of people try to explain it and all they got was "don't care what anyone says she was robbed" sort of response and none of them seem to get the transfers thing at all. They'd be better off aiming their ire at the large number of FF voters in Carlow who gave McGuiness and Aylward their first preference. Jennifer was unlucky for sure as it was FG and LAB candidates who were eliminated and got Deering over the line but thats just how it works and FG must have done some serious ground work in the constituency to get their core voters to remain loyal to the party to the last and give their 2nd or 3rd preferences to Deering.

catbear

catbear wrote: »

By that metric I grew up in extreme poverty having to share a room with two other siblings yet this rebranding of poverty became a competition in the bubble years. Don't have cable TV? you're suffering poverty! "I'm struggling, can't update the BMW this year." (I actually had this said to me in 2008)

.

This comment really made me laugh as it brought me back to my childhood in a 3 bed corporation house in KK city - when my mam and my unemployed dad rented out two of the bedrooms to lodgers in order to boost the family income. So me and my siblings slept on couch-beds and shared beds and just got on with it, - it was case of survival. But we never felt poor. My parents grew their own spuds and veg in the back garden, Mam knitted jumpers for us and stitched the Boot factory shoes (rem that?). We finished our education and went on to college and got good jobs, - as did hundreds of our friends and peers who came from similiar backgrounds. There was never a "hand-out" mentality. It's so different now sadly. People seem to have lost their sense of pride and self sufficiency.