Bubble?

Sleepy

Looking at the incredible prices being fetched on-line for some rare sets, I'm wondering if we're seeing a bubble market in Lego.

Seeing articles in Time Magazine detailing the fact it's out-performed gold as an investment vehicle since 2000, I'd expect that a lot of the limited sets are being purchased with no interest in ever building them but holding on for a few years to see a capital appreciation.

http://time.com/money/4162059/lego-investment-compare-gold-return/

Now, if we've learned anything from living in Ireland during the last decade, it's that trees don't grow to the sky and that any asset class that appreciates rapidly, crashes sooner or later.

Any thoughts? Would be particularly interested to hear from any traders.

Sleepy

Sleepy wrote: »

Looking at the incredible prices being fetched on-line for some rare sets, I'm wondering if we're seeing a bubble market in Lego.

Seeing articles in Time Magazine detailing the fact it's out-performed gold as an investment vehicle since 2000, I'd expect that a lot of the limited sets are being purchased with no interest in ever building them but holding on for a few years to see a capital appreciation.

http://time.com/money/4162059/lego-investment-compare-gold-return/

Now, if we've learned anything from living in Ireland during the last decade, it's that trees don't grow to the sky and that any asset class that appreciates rapidly, crashes sooner or later.

Any thoughts? Would be particularly interested to hear from any traders.

There are a few Lego facebook pages I used to be on for buying, selling and trading. Over the last 2 or 3 months they've been filling up with 'investors' looking for advice on what sets to buy.

The funny thing is that there are now thousands of people doing the same thing so the potential returns are going to be smaller. Also if you look at the sets they give as examples, the latest is from 2008. Lego was less popular back then so there would have been less sets produced increasing their 'rarity' now.

Oafley Jones

I've been on sites like brickpicker a few times and just find the whole thing ridiculous. I think that if a lot of the people there invested their time and energy into researching actual stocks they'd be doing an awful lot better. Lego is a lousy product to be invested in. It takes up space and it's not the most liquid of assets. How long are you going to be sitting on that set hoping for that customer. Sure you can put a few sets away and hope to score a return on the odd box after a few years, but you're hardly going to be moving many units.

Then there's the precariousness of it all. Remember how takara made ****e of the value of MIB transformers with their reissues, well I'm pretty sure TLG are going to start the same thing. Winter Toy Shops reissue should terrify these people. I think it's only a start for a series of "Legends 2.0". Sure there will be the odd person who only wants the original OG set, but most will be happy with the new one.

I also find the whole thing really off putting. These feckers who come around and clear out bargain toy shelves, hovering up everything, just do some kids out a chance of getting the toy.

ShadowHearth

Like any industry, there will be people who profit out of it.

My most pet hate would be people who were buying out all of those first minecraft sets and selling it online for redecilous money. Maybe we in Europe did not had it as bad as in US.
Sow one of the popular youtubers back in the day braging about how they were on trip to some convention and then they found some of those sets randomly in shop and bought all 15 sets...

Its kind of good if it will go to a bubble. I have no issues with people selling and buying lego as collectors or whatever situation they are in, but blatant buyers and sellers kind of annoy me.

I never had a chance to get that lego technic 4x4 special edition back in the day as it was just bought out by resellers.

Oafley Jones

ShadowHearth wrote: »

I never had a chance to get that lego technic 4x4 special edition back in the day as it was just bought out by resellers.

I'd say it will be a long time before we see a set like 41999 again. It just seemed to create a lot of negative attention for the company. They handled it awfully though. Not limiting it to one per household was idiotic. I wonder how many of the 20k were bought by those who actually wanted the set. I'd love to know how many are actually built. Shame, as it a great model and a huge improvement over the base set.

Sleepy

Here's hoping it is a bubble and that we can enjoy buying sets below original RRP when it pops!

drunkmonkey

I think some of them are safe enough bets if you buy at the right time, batman, Star Wars those kind of sets will always be in demand but you need to choose carefully.
Some are good toys that will always be worth their money, the likes of the Ferrari f40, Mini Cooper and the VW camper all on sale at the moment should never really loose value as they've mass appeal and should only appreciate when they retire.
My latest purchase is the fairground mixer, I just think it's a cool set and will probably be knocking round the house for the next few years and my next purchase will be the Ferris wheel, main reasons I just like them, the kids will as well and I'll probably get my money back out of them at some stage.

Most of the stuff collectable from the last few years is nearly sold out everywhere so I don't think there's much pickings left in Ireland or the UK for a collector bar the lucky haul from the toy shop in the middle of nowhere.

As a way of getting rich not a hope as a fun hobby you can turn a few quid on while minding the kids there's a lot worse you could be doing.