JNLR Jan 15 - Dec 15

chilloutrelax

I read that the JNLRs will be published this Wednesday at 11am (was always Thursday's at 5pm).

There tends not to be big shifts in ratings each quarter, however there may be a continuation of trends e.g. Redfms growth or 98fms fall to relative obscurity in Dublin. I suspect there could be big overall drops in 2fm, where the impact of Tubridy going could be felt rather than articulacy boosting ratings of breakfast and Nicky Byrne.

Any predictions??

Mr Sea Wolf

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Any predictions??

EVERY Radio station will claim to be number 1

chilloutrelax

Mr Sea Wolf wrote: »

EVERY Radio station will claim to be number 1

Indeed, number one in the between 15 and 17 years at 10am until 10.15 who are housewives..

There should be better regulation regarding this, some stations really take this piss!

Badabing

Interested in how Pat Kenny gets on, ditto for Anton Savage

chilloutrelax

Will be interesting to see Ray Foleys last set of results on 98fm...

Also new shows such as - Ray darcy, Ryan Tubridy

smallfridge

I predict Red to continue its growth and 96fm to level out but still worrying for them. FM104 to lose listeners (but not many) 98 will gain.

Newstalk breakfast to grow again, 2fm will remain pretty level I think, loss and gains here and there but generally not much will happen.

Spin SW to lose and Beat to gain.

Then the likes of Tipp fm, Clare Fm, Midlands and KFM all to make significant losses.

Radio Kerry, Highland and Live 95 will make gains.

I'm not sure about iRadio.

chilloutrelax

smallfridge wrote: »

Then the likes of Tipp fm, Clare Fm, Midlands and KFM all to make significant losses.

Radio Kerry, Highland and Live 95 will make gains.
.

Interesting selection, what are you basing it on?

GSF

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Indeed, number one in the between 15 and 17 years at 10am until 10.15 who are housewives..

There should be better regulation regarding this, some stations really take this piss!

It doesn't hurt anyone, ad buyers are smart enough to ignore the BS

smallfridge

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Interesting selection, what are you basing it on?

Just my own listening habits to be honest and opinions on certain stations and programmes.

L1011

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Indeed, number one in the between 15 and 17 years at 10am until 10.15 who are housewives..

There should be better regulation regarding this, some stations really take this piss!

Major ad buyers base their purchasing plans off the actual raw data coupled with the costs being charged. Only a small shop or similar is likely to be swayed by a big ad claiming to be #1, which pretty much every station in Dublin except 98fm did last time (#1 overall, #1 15-34, #1 35+, #1 women 30-50, etc, etc, etc)

wnolan1992

Like a previous poster, I'd be interested in seeing Foley's last set of figures to see if there was any improvement at all.

Other than that, I'll be looking out for Anton Savage, Ray D'Arcy, 2FM and NT Breakfast figures.

My predictions would be that Anton will either stay steady or lose another few thousand this book, which I'd hope would be him bottoming out. I'd say Ray will possibly cross the 200k mark. I'd expect 2FM to be pretty steady, really interested to see what'll happen to BR's figures as it's the first book in ages where their timeslot hasn't been affected by timeshifts. And I'd like to see NT Breakfast continue gaining because I think they're doing fantastic work there lately, but I could easily see a minor step back happening too.

chilloutrelax

Does anyone know what time the stations get to see the figures? I assume its not 11am today also.

smallfridge

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Does anyone know what time the stations get to see the figures? I assume its not 11am today also.

5pm still. Stations get the results at 11 and its embargoed until 5 as usual!

blue4ever

It's extermly confusing:

Here's what was on the IPSOS site a couple of days ago:

Next publication
The next publication will be on Wednesday, the 3rd February 2015. The new time of publication will be 11am.

NOW it reads:

JNLR Press Release - February 2016
The next JNLR Press Release will be available from 5pm

With that - you can be sure that there will be leakage as some will think that 11:00am is fair game and may not have seen the change in text.


I think I'll hold off until either IPSOS or the BAI open the doors to 2015Q4

L1011

blue4ever wrote: »

It's extermly confusing:

Here's what was on the IPSOS site a couple of days ago:

Next publication
The next publication will be on Wednesday, the 3rd February 2015. The new time of publication will be 11am.

NOW it reads:

JNLR Press Release - February 2016
The next JNLR Press Release will be available from 5pm

With that - you can be sure that there will be leakage as some will think that 11:00am is fair game and may not have seen the change in text.


I think I'll hold off until either IPSOS or the BAI open the doors to 2015Q4

Stations will have been told 11am, which is a new time of publication to them, from the very first minute the date was decided. 5pm has always been the embargo time and isn't changing.

chilloutrelax

L1011 wrote: »

Stations will have been told 11am, which is a new time of publication to them, from the very first minute the date was decided. 5pm has always been the embargo time and isn't changing.

Its a very long embargo, 2pm would make more sense.

Faugheen

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Its a very long embargo, 2pm would make more sense.

There is a LOT of data in a JNLR book though. It's not just weekly reach, daily reach and then the individual shows, there's so much that stations have to go through, get promos ready and all that craic. It makes perfect sense.

Itssoeasy

http://www.thejournal.ie/jnlr-figures-irish-radio-2582346-Feb2016/

Seems radio 1 had a great book.

blue4ever

Sorry - i thought i posted this earlier!

http://www.ilevel.ie/media-blog/radio/

C

Badabing

Not great for Pat Kenny it has to be said. Incredible how Morning Ireland keeps doing well when in my opinion it's very stale.

IUA14

2FM with a pretty bad book, Breakfast Republic down 15,000 since November.

http://www.thejournal.ie/jnlr-figures-irish-radio-2582346-Feb2016/

PeterTheEighth

DriveTime up 18,000 year on year.. baffling, Mary Wilson is dreadful. People are tuning in to D'Arcy cos a) Moncreiff is so bad and b) to listen to the daily car crash.

I think not enough weighting is given to the fact that it's just easier to flick on Radio 1. You know there's good reception wherever you are in the country, particularly if you're driving. They have a huge advantage in that respect.

chilloutrelax

Big drop for 2fm shows in just one quarter! I'd suspect that will be a continuing downward trend u till the next revamp back to a 30s plus station.

104 was ok... They really need to shake up afternoons and evenings in particular 3 to 9pm. It's quite bland and Ben Murray seems to shout a lot...is that an attempt to sound interesting?

Q102 are in big trouble!! I quite like it at times but I think Dave Kelly has managed to turn it into the most boring and personality less station in Ireland. His answer seem to be more songs in a row to everything... Where is the imagination and creativity??

Brian Maher on his Twitter the inks he's number one at 7 to 9... Who does he think he is kidding? Spin start 15 mins early and finish 15 minutes before but are way ahead in terms of overall and quarter hour figures. That's a joke.

Faugheen

Beat still Number 1 in the SE (no surprise) but Beat Drive has overtaken Breakfast again, which I was very surprised (but happy) to see.

Mr Sea Wolf

IUA14 wrote: »

Breakfast Republic down 15,000 since November.

http://www.thejournal.ie/jnlr-figures-irish-radio-2582346-Feb2016/

No it isn't. The last figures were totally artificial as it included Tubridys figures.

chilloutrelax

Mr Sea Wolf wrote: »

No it isn't. The last figures were totally artificial as it included Tubridys figures.

Technically true but the times slot figures have gone down by that number no matter who was there previously.

badgersbelief

I'm surprised at how low FM104's figures are between 7-9pm but then again looking around it doesn't seem to be much better at their nearest rivals.

chilloutrelax

badgersbelief wrote: »

I'm surprised at how low FM104's figures are between 7-9pm but then again looking around it doesn't seem to be much better at their nearest rivals.

They have struggled at that time for years. It's not their style but maybe take the spin model and poach the presenters... It's worked for years I. spin and is way ahead at that time slot..personality at that time seems to work.


Can't seem to get it right at all. I also think the Jam leading in from 3 to 7 needs much improving and is part of the problem.

Mr Sea Wolf

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Technically true but the times slot figures have gone down by that number no matter who was there previously.

Of course, it was inevitable that a zoo breakfast show wasn't going to keep the same audience of a housewife chat show.

Itssoeasy

PeterTheEighth wrote: »

DriveTime up 18,000 year on year.. baffling, Mary Wilson is dreadful. People are tuning in to D'Arcy cos a) Moncreiff is so bad and b) to listen to the daily car crash.

I think not enough weighting is given to the fact that it's just easier to flick on Radio 1. You know there's good reception wherever you are in the country, particularly if you're driving. They have a huge advantage in that respect.

That's a great point actually. I know for a fact my grandmother leaves on radio 1 all the time.

IUA14

Mr Sea Wolf wrote: »

Of course, it was inevitable that a zoo breakfast show wasn't going to keep the same audience of a housewife chat show.

2FM were quite keen to use those inflated figures in the last book last time out so they can't have it both ways. Down across the board apart from L Mc.

wnolan1992

Oh boy my predictions were way off!

First off, as always, thanks to the guys at iLevel. I say it every 3 months, but I and others really appreciate the work you do.

Radio One
D'Arcy up 16,000, pretty impressive. I thought he'd go up, but 16k is more than I thought. Fair play to him, he's obviously doing something right and appealing to R1 listeners. Good book for R1 in general, up across the board.

(Side note: Love the typo on Ray D'Arcy lads. )

2FM
This was the big shock for me. Did not expect them to be down across the board, but with so much chopping and changing at the station it's hard to get a good picture of what's going on, the likes of Eoghan McDermott and Tracy Clifford's shows are too new, BR's slot changes so often.

Today FM
Anton lost more than I thought he would, and overall losing across the day is a bad sign. Fair dues to Dempsey though!

NT
Damn, bad news for PK losing again. Also a biggish drop for Breakfast which is a shame. You'd wonder how long Johnathan Healy will remain. Dropping 53,000 of PK's listeners and Moncrief attracting in 40,000 new ones book-ending his slot doesn't look good.

wnolan1992 wrote: »

Like a previous poster, I'd be interested in seeing Foley's last set of figures to see if there was any improvement at all.

Other than that, I'll be looking out for Anton Savage, Ray D'Arcy, 2FM and NT Breakfast figures.

My predictions would be that Anton will either stay steady or lose another few thousand this book, which I'd hope would be him bottoming out. I'd say Ray will possibly cross the 200k mark. I'd expect 2FM to be pretty steady, really interested to see what'll happen to BR's figures as it's the first book in ages where their timeslot hasn't been affected by timeshifts. And I'd like to see NT Breakfast continue gaining because I think they're doing fantastic work there lately, but I could easily see a minor step back happening too.

chilloutrelax

Ray Foley finished with 36k listeners, down 1,000 book on book and down 7,000 year on year.

Spin are at 49k and 104 on 82k….

Whether people think he is good or bad, clearly there was no connection at all with the Dublin market with figures like that.

98 are in a spot of bother (Barry Dunne remains the exception as usual, ironically the least promoted show on the station by miles). Dara quilty is only a third of spins drive show... Dublin talks has had no impact at 34k - they had 10k more at night on 104. I don't blame the presenters, management haven't a clue!

IUA14

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Ray Foley finished with 36k listeners, down 1,000 book on book and down 7,000 year on year.

Spin are at 49k and 104 on 82k….

Whether people think he is good or bad, clearly there was no connection at all with the Dublin market with figures like that.

98 are in a spot of bother (Barry Dunne remains the exception as usual, ironically the least promoted show on the station by miles). Dara quilty is only a third of spins drive show... Dublin talks has had no impact at 34k - they had 10k more at night on 104. I don't blame the presenters, management haven't a clue!

Whole station is a complete incoherent mess at the moment. They can throw in new shows all they want and pay the stupid advertising money for billboards and busses but it has had NO impact the last couple of years. Agree its a management problem.

What is the station right now? Certainly not positioning themselves to compete with 104. Barry Dunne the only bright spot for them. Dublin Talks diminishes the brand. I would listen to Foley and bang on 10am I would turn off until 4 when Quilty came on. Those two shows complimented each other at least but didn't and don't connect with the market it seems. Dublin Talks is two hours of threats and abuse and belongs on late night, idiotic idea to put it into morning slot. If it was not a phone-in show and just a chat show with guests it might have worked.

Really cannot see things picking up anytime soon.

chilloutrelax

IUA14 wrote: »

Whole station is a complete incoherent mess at the moment. They can throw in new shows all they want and pay the stupid advertising money for billboards and busses but it has had NO impact the last couple of years. Agree its a management problem.

What is the station right now? Certainly not positioning themselves to compete with 104. Barry Dunne the only bright spot for them. Dublin Talks diminishes the brand. I would listen to Foley and bang on 10am I would turn off until 4 when Quilty came on. Those two shows complimented each other at least but didn't and don't connect with the market it seems. Dublin Talks is two hours of threats and abuse and belongs on late night, idiotic idea to put it into morning slot. If it was not a phone-in show and just a chat show with guests it might have worked.

Really cannot see things picking up anytime soon.

Completely agree...it's such a mess. Cooper and Luke don't help or change things.. I always wonder if more senior heads in communicorp notice and/or care??

Horse84

Both red fm's neil prendeveille and 96fm's opinion line both claiming to be number 1 talk show in cork. Sure everyone's a winner

vince

Great work from ilevel thanks . Breakdown of cork shows interesting to me. Niel prenderville officialy ahead of pj now hats off to red fm.

Itssoeasy

Horse84 wrote: »

Both red fm's neil prendeveille and 96fm's opinion line both claiming to be number 1 talk show in cork. Sure everyone's a winner

Neilox has 68 and PJ has 66 according to the JNLR figures so surely its neilox that is no1 ?

blue4ever

The actual - as opposed to what the spin says:

Average listened to yesterday:
Neil Prendeville 68
PJ Coogan 66

And the hourly look like this:

smallfridge

blue4ever wrote: »

The actual - as opposed to what the spin says:

Average listened to yesterday:
Neil Prendeville 68
PJ Coogan 66

And the hourly look like this:

Thanks for the graph, this makes sense now seeing written down.

The only thing I'm still confused over is how are 96fm able to say this on their website:

"The Opinion Line on Cork’s 96FM is the most-listened to talk show in Cork with a daily audience of 71,000. This compares favourably with the 64,000 who opt to listen to the Neil Prendeville Show on Red FM.
Ken Tobin on Cork’s 96FM is the most listened to programme in Cork in it’s timeslot."

These figures are way off what the graph above says and all the papers today!

vince

Possible from the last book. That was last books figures

blue4ever

smallfridge wrote: »

Thanks for the graph, this makes sense now seeing written down.

The only thing I'm still confused over is how are 96fm able to say this on their website:

"The Opinion Line on Cork’s 96FM is the most-listened to talk show in Cork with a daily audience of 71,000. This compares favourably with the 64,000 who opt to listen to the Neil Prendeville Show on Red FM.
Ken Tobin on Cork’s 96FM is the most listened to programme in Cork in it’s timeslot."

These figures are way off what the graph above says and all the papers today!

and at the bottom of the page on 96's site:

"(source: JNLR ipsos/MRBI 2015-3, Oct 14 to Sep 15, Cork City and County)"

Out of date research - which they'll try and hang on to!!!!!

chilloutrelax

You should see 98FMs weekend figures...so bad you couldn't make it up!

chilloutrelax

You should see 98FMs weekend figures...so bad you couldn't make it up!

blue4ever

chilloutrelax wrote: »

You should see 98FMs weekend figures...so bad you couldn't make it up!

Interestingly I was having a pike at that and there's something interesting there. And you’ll have to allow me a bit of statistical latitude on this one – but there’s method behind the argument.

As a rule – radio listenership tails off from daily to Saturday then Sunday- call it “leisure interference” if you will.

So “any radio” in Dublin would have a weekday reach of 81%, 72% reach on Saturday and a 65% reach by Sunday. So you can see that it tails off a fair bit.

By Sunday – the “any radio” listenership is at about 80% of its daily average, a fifth of them having something better to do!

So if you take the weekday vs Sunday metric to see how a station performs over the weekend (and that’s a numeric that’s a bit finger in the air – but for the purposes of illustration it will do) then things begin to fall out.

RTE1 (as a kind of benchmark) has, as a proportion, 89% of its daily listenership numbers on a Sunday. I’m not saying they are the same people, but as a stat they lose 11% of their daily listenership reach numbers by Sunday.

Furthermore FM104 has, by Sunday, 73% of its listenership as it did on an average weekday. So the decline is more pronounced. You can argue that the cohort listening to RTE1 and FM104 are strikingly different – I’d (brute force) estimate that average age of an RTE1 daily listener at 55yrs and FM014 at 35yrs so their lifestyles will have marked differences and will possibly impact on radio listenership.

I digress, again. So, looking at the station mentioned, 98FM have only 45% of their daily average number by Sunday. Over half the quantity they get during the average weekday are missing by the Sabbath. And it’s one of the worst performing in the Dublin market – using that Sunday metric.

So, it only reinforces that argument.

chilloutrelax

blue4ever wrote: »

Interestingly I was having a pike at that and there's something interesting there. And you’ll have to allow me a bit of statistical latitude on this one – but there’s method behind the argument.

As a rule – radio listenership tails off from daily to Saturday then Sunday- call it “leisure interference” if you will.

So “any radio” in Dublin would have a weekday reach of 81%, 72% reach on Saturday and a 65% reach by Sunday. So you can see that it tails off a fair bit.

By Sunday – the “any radio” listenership is at about 80% of its daily average, a fifth of them having something better to do!

So if you take the weekday vs Sunday metric to see how a station performs over the weekend (and that’s a numeric that’s a bit finger in the air – but for the purposes of illustration it will do) then things begin to fall out.

RTE1 (as a kind of benchmark) has, as a proportion, 89% of its daily listenership numbers on a Sunday. I’m not saying they are the same people, but as a stat they lose 11% of their daily listenership reach numbers by Sunday.

Furthermore FM104 has, by Sunday, 73% of its listenership as it did on an average weekday. So the decline is more pronounced. You can argue that the cohort listening to RTE1 and FM104 are strikingly different – I’d (brute force) estimate that average age of an RTE1 daily listener at 55yrs and FM014 at 35yrs so their lifestyles will have marked differences and will possibly impact on radio listenership.

I digress, again. So, looking at the station mentioned, 98FM have only 45% of their daily average number by Sunday. Over half the quantity they get during the average weekday are missing by the Sabbath. And it’s one of the worst performing in the Dublin market – using that Sunday metric.

So, it only reinforces that argument.

Interesting analysis.

It's says a lot about their listenership base. My guess is that many are the in work radio listeners on weekdays that either listen out of habit or force and have no interest in them outside of weekday work hours. Just a guess..

vince

Dose anyone know the numbers for both of Nial Boylens 4fm shows. 4fm big again in cork above the other nationals apart from rte1. I say it again 4fm you need to focus abit more on Cork to reward us all. Ocasionly on nials show he will slip in cork limerick and galway just to keep us happy. Its like ian collins on nights on lbc he refers to london as down in london he use to do same on talksport just to make it sound non london based. Come on 4fm focus on your biggest market more. The tv3 application for the licence was to have a cork studio.

blue4ever

vince wrote: »

Dose anyone know the numbers for both of Nial Boylens 4fm shows. 4fm big again in cork above the other nationals apart from rte1. I say it again 4fm you need to focus abit more on Cork to reward us all. Ocasionly on nials show he will slip in cork limerick and galway just to keep us happy. Its like ian collins on nights on lbc he refers to london as down in london he use to do same on talksport just to make it sound non london based. Come on 4fm focus on your biggest market more. The tv3 application for the licence was to have a cork studio.

Interesting! "Up in Dublin they've too much silverware at this point and should be banned from the Football Chamoionship!?" (the 'blue' in blue4ever is not a reference to Chelsea)

Maybe that's why Newtalk have a Cork base and if they are not there, they wheel in Mick Clifford.

Afternoon Show - 48,000 2%
Nighttime - 23,000 1%

Csalem

As usual great stuff on the ilevel site going through the figures and providing the charts. Thanks for that!

This probably sounds ludicrous but I wonder if 98FM should do a deal with Spar? Everytime I am in one of the shops they seem to be playing FM104. If you are in the queue and hear something on the radio that might interest you there is a chance you would tune in on your phone or ipod.

Csalem

As usual great stuff on the ilevel site going through the figures and providing the charts. Thanks for that!

This probably sounds ludicrous but I wonder if 98FM should do a deal with Spar? Everytime I am in one of the shops they seem to be playing FM104. If you are in the queue and hear something on the radio that might interest you there is a chance you would tune in on your phone or ipod.

Mr Sea Wolf

blue4ever wrote: »

Interesting! "Up in Dublin they've too much silverware at this point and should be banned from the Football Chamoionship!?" (the 'blue' in blue4ever is not a reference to Chelsea)

Maybe that's why Newtalk have a Cork base and if they are not there, they wheel in Mick Clifford.

Afternoon Show - 48,000 2%
Nighttime - 23,000 1%

Wow Boylans night show has almost double 2fms listenership at that time ?