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General Election - Feb 26th Megathread

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Comments

  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    corny wrote: »

    We would have forced the hand of the ECB and the likes of Merkel and it might have got messy but let's be honest the alternative has hardly been palatable.

    On the contrary the alternative has worked out quite well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    On the contrary the alternative has worked out quite well.

    According to who, and what bubble are you in ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭corny


    RobertKK wrote: »
    I think that is unfair on both.

    I mean if that was the case we wouldn't be one of the wealthiest countries in the world.
    Watch CNBC, the biggest business channel in the world. Nearly every day Ireland gets mentioned as US companies invert and make themselves tax resident in Ireland.
    The planned Pfizer inversion with Irish based Allergan to make Pfizer technically an Irish company is said to be worth over €620 million a year in taxes to our revenue.
    So consistent tax policy which has been the case for many years now for companies shows a long term plan.
    The IFSC was a long term plan.
    Encouraging the pharma companies to ireland was a long term plan.
    Building motorways was a long term plan.
    Building tunnels in Cork, Dublin and elsewhere was a long term plan, putting in the Luas was a long term plan.
    Banning smoking in enclosed spaces was a long term plan.


    Some of the budgets close to elections have been short term, but a lot of long term planning has been there too.

    What's with this wealthiest country talk? Those statistics are skewed by US companies ramming their profits through an effective tax haven. If you look at more meaningful metrics you'd see disposable income levels in Ireland are below the OECD average. You'd also notice the alarming gap (relative to other countries) between the rich and the poor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,757 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    corny wrote: »
    I don't accept the comparison with Greece (their debt dwarfs ours and their economy was always built on fragile foundations) but you're right its not exactly like for like with Iceland. My point was more we would have been entering uncharted waters had we wound up the banks. I don't accept the seemingly straightforward assumption that we'd be an absolute basket case had we done so.

    We would have forced the hand of the ECB and the likes of Merkel and it might have got messy but let's be honest the alternative has hardly been palatable.

    You do know German taxpayers had to bailout depfa bank who built up enormous debts in Dublin, and cost the German state €102 billion.
    Depfa at one stage was the biggest bank in Ireland. That bailout happened before the collapse of the Irish banks.

    Angela Merkel did nothing to Ireland that she didn't allow to happen t Germany.
    Imagine if Merkel has agreed to let Irish banks fail after what the German government did to nationalise one of their own banks?
    Ireland was treated no better or worse than what Germany were when they had to nationalise a bank that built up huge debts in this country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭corny


    On the contrary the alternative has worked out quite well.

    For who? European creditors or the poor Irish saps on the bread line? Ha ha. You've nothing to contribute but party political sound bites.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,346 ✭✭✭✭homerjay2005


    how many seats short are Fine Gael/Labour likely to be to form a government?


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,757 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    corny wrote: »
    What's with this wealthiest country talk? Those statistics are skewed by US companies ramming their profits through an effective tax haven. If you look at more meaningful metrics you'd see disposable income levels in Ireland are below the OECD average. You'd also notice the alarming gap (relative to other countries) between the rich and the poor.


    Ireland is ranked 6th in the Human Development Index, this takes into account: income, education, life expectancy and standard of living.

    Gross national product is somewhere over €180 billion a year or around €42500 per capita.
    Gross domestic product is around €250 billion or somewhere over €53,500 per capita.
    Either figure shows we are a wealthy country.

    Being a wealthy country doesn't mean there isn't inequality, and thank you for mentioning the OECD, as I looked it up and yes you are right in what you posted.
    http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/ireland/

    The better life index by the OECD:
    In the EU we are in the top 5 in 5th place for all the things in the overall rank, or 12th out of 37 OECD countries and ahead of closest neighbour the UK who are 14th, and ahead of Germany who are in 13th place.

    I do thnk FG favour the better off in society, overall Ireland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, everything points to that being fact.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭EazyD


    There is absolutely no doubt that this country would be ruined for generations if we had defaulted and let the banks fail. The decisions of the government are being proven correct with every passing day.

    There is no way we would be having the growth and job creation we are now, that people would be back being able to spend money, buy houses etc and be looking at having our crazy high taxes reduced at last. The country would have collapsed.

    The fact people can't see that makes me think think they really have absolutely no clue at all about how the situation was and how a different course of action would mean we would not be a country in bits rather than one that's improving faster than most other countries in the world. FG are owed a hell of a lot of thanks for how they got us here, if the likes of SF were in power there is a high chance you wouldn't be able to get money from an ATM today.

    The macro policies of the last 7-8 years were set in stone prior to FG's reign so I'm struggling to see how or why any of us should be lauding them for the great work you appear to attribute to them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,757 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    how many seats short are Fine Gael/Labour likely to be to form a government?


    The latest poll has Labour being wiped out and FG will probably lose at least 20 seats, they will be a long way from being in government.

    I would not be surprised if FF ended up pushing FG for most seats. Enda has not been impressive in the live debates, while Micheal Martin has been generally accepted as being the best performer of the bigger parties so far during the campaign.
    I think it is like in the UK where many didn't tell the pollsters they would vote for the Tories, and like in our local elections, FF ended up with most votes and seats despite polls saying FG was the most popular.

    Maybe FG will be supporting a FF government...


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    corny wrote: »
    For who? European creditors or the poor Irish saps on the bread line? Ha ha. You've nothing to contribute but party political sound bites.

    For example the thousands back in work, the people with more disposable income now than a few years ago, the people paying less tax due to some reductions in the tax burden. The country is doing quiet ok now and things are improving all the time. Car sales are sky rocketing, houses are being snapped up this shows ordinary people are back on track and can afford to spend again.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    For example the thousands back in work, the people with more disposable income now than a few years ago,

    Who says that the return to work has given them more disposable income ?
    the people paying less tax due to some reductions in the tax burden.

    Most people I know have, at best, broken even on tax, with LPT, IW & stealth increases in car tax all swallowing any minor improvements.
    The country is doing quiet ok now and things are improving all the time. Car sales are sky rocketing, houses are being snapped up this shows ordinary people are back on track and can afford to spend again.

    If your insurance company has - illegally IMHO - told you that your NCT-passed car is no longer insurable due purely to its age (even though it's legally as roadworthy as your neighbour's 2012) then you're being forced to change. The government do nothing to fix this.

    If your car failed said NCT on some petty sticking plaster, then you're forced to change.

    I've seen more garages advertise PCP than I ever saw before; actually had to look up the term. The car isn't theirs until the very end, so it seems to be a glorified cross between hire purchase and renting, and is no indicator of disposable income whatsoever.

    Houses being "snapped up" after a bank takes them back from the person struggling to pay ? Sure the bank can always chase the old owner and the new owner gets a massive discount and a 35-year contract with said bank - more fodder.

    None of the things you list are necessarily "good" in themselves. I'm not saying it's all bad, just that you need to take off the rose-coloured glasses and at least see where the truth lies.


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    Who says that the return to work has given them more disposable income ?

    The return to work can only be seen as a good thing. If some one is better off not working then social welfare is too high.
    Most people I know have, at best, broken even on tax, with LPT, IW & stealth increases in car tax all swallowing any minor improvements.

    Well I can only speak for myself and friends who are all better off. Personally I'm about 80 euro a month better off in my pay check, Irish water was 60 for the year, car tax hasn't changed in years.

    It's so funny seeing the idiots protesting at Irish water while the cost is being more than compensated for by reduced taxes and usc. Of course a large proportion of those protesting are on social welfare which makes it even more laughable.


    I've seen more garages advertise PCP than I ever saw before; actually had to look up the term. The car isn't theirs until the very end, so it seems to be a glorified cross between hire purchase and renting, and is no indicator of disposable income whatsoever.

    If you actually analyse PCP it's a great way to buy a car, particularly with the 0% finance available from most marquees on certain models.

    Houses being "snapped up" after a bank takes them back from the person struggling to pay ? Sure the bank can always chase the old owner and the new owner gets a massive discount and a 35-year contract with said bank - more fodder.

    If someone isn't paying their mortgage then tough, the banks are too slow to repossess houses in this country. If there were more repossessions there would be more houses in the market for those who want to buy, I wouldn't think twice about buying a house being sold by the bank.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    how many seats short are Fine Gael/Labour likely to be to form a government?

    Labour are likely to be short 80 odd seats if latest polls are anything to go on :pac:

    4% fringe party


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,973 ✭✭✭Sh1tbag OToole


    The return to work can only be seen as a good thing. If some one is better off not working then social welfare is too high.



    Well I can only speak for myself and friends who are all better off. Personally I'm about 80 euro a month better off in my pay check, Irish water was 60 for the year, car tax hasn't changed in years.

    It's so funny seeing the idiots protesting at Irish water while the cost is being more than compensated for by reduced taxes and usc. Of course a large proportion of those protesting are on social welfare which makes it even more laughable.



    If you actually analyse PCP it's a great way to buy a car, particularly with the 0% finance available from most marquees on certain models.




    If someone isn't paying their mortgage then tough, the banks are too slow to repossess houses in this country. If there were more repossessions there would be more houses in the market for those who want to buy, I wouldn't think twice about buying a house being sold by the bank.

    PCP is a scam. They jack up the price before you buy to factor in interest and give you the illusion of 0%, but where they really make their money is in hoping that you won't have the balloon payment at the end so you end up on the perpetual buying-new-car treadmill.

    The entity that is Irish water only costs us more money, it creates a few 100 cushy office jobs in Dublin that weren't needed before while the council continues to look after the infrastructure. Property tax and the other FG taxes are also making life more expensive for you


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    corny wrote: »
    For who? European creditors or the poor Irish saps on the bread line? Ha ha. You've nothing to contribute but party political sound bites.

    Tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment now than were in 2011.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    The return to work can only be seen as a good thing. If some one is better off not working then social welfare is too high.



    Well I can only speak for myself and friends who are all better off. Personally I'm about 80 euro a month better off in my pay check, Irish water was 60 for the year, car tax hasn't changed in years.

    It's so funny seeing the idiots protesting at Irish water while the cost is being more than compensated for by reduced taxes and usc. Of course a large proportion of those protesting are on social welfare which makes it even more laughable.



    If you actually analyse PCP it's a great way to buy a car, particularly with the 0% finance available from most marquees on certain models.




    If someone isn't paying their mortgage then tough, the banks are too slow to repossess houses in this country. If there were more repossessions there would be more houses in the market for those who want to buy, I wouldn't think twice about buying a house being sold by the bank.

    OK you missed my points completely. At no stage did I offer an opinion that someone not paying a mortgage shouldn't have the house sold. Just that it wasn't an indicator of anything.

    Likewise, if your car tax hasn't changed in years, then you have a post-2008 car. Good for you. Don't assume you are the norm and lie that the tax hasn't changed in years.

    PCP leaves you at the mercy of some fictional notional future market value. Suitable in some instances but between deposits and final values the ads are horribly misleading.

    As for the "idiots" comment, and the €80 a week, well that again explains why you don't realise that for lots of people the tax cuts didn't offset the water bills + LPT that Irish Water got; a classic case of "I'm alright Jack so f**k you".


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    PCP is a scam. They jack up the price before you buy to factor in interest and give you the illusion of 0%, but where they really make their money is in hoping that you won't have the balloon payment at the end so you end up on the perpetual buying-new-car treadmill.

    This simply isn't true, either you haven't a clue about it or you are just guessing.

    The list price doesn't change of you are buying for cash or going on PCP so for a start you are immediately wrong there, seconding you are make it sound like a scam that the plan is to trade up after the 3 years that's the who point in the first place. The aim is to get a new car every three years and if done correctly you can do it with little or no deposit after the fist deposit. You just keep paying the monthly amount. It's a very very good way to get a new car, just look at the repayment per month and the interest you would pay on a car loan in comparison with PCP.

    Likewise, if your car tax hasn't changed in years, then you have a post-2008 car. Good for you. Don't assume you are the norm and lie that the tax hasn't changed in years.

    It's pre 2008, the tax hasn't changed since 2013 when their was a slight increase.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Billy86 wrote: »
    Tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment emigrated now than were in 2011.
    FTFY.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    FTFY.

    Ireland's population as of last summer was about 300,000 higher than it was in 2011.


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    FTFY.

    You are clutching at straws, thousands and thousands of people back at work. The emigration thing is a red herring.

    You also ignored the earlier stat that pointed out most people who emigrated left jobs to do so and that's been my experience for people I've seen leaving too some leaving good jobs and just leaving for the craic rather than because they couldn't get work.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Billy86 wrote: »
    Ireland's population as of last summer was about 300,000 higher than it was in 2011.
    Why are you quoting this random statistic? What does e.g. babies born in Ireland (highest birthrate in EU) do to counter what I posted?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    So with FF saying that they will scrap Irish Water and those who paid already wont be refunded. Will this only happen if they are the majority government or if FG make up the majority and FF go in with them as a coalition can they still fulfill this promise?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    You are clutching at straws, thousands and thousands of people back at work. The emigration thing is a red herring.

    You also ignored the earlier stat that pointed out most people who emigrated left jobs to do so and that's been my experience for people I've seen leaving too some leaving good jobs and just leaving for the craic rather than because they couldn't get work.
    Do I really need to explain to you how emigration is significant in relation to employment/unemployment levels?

    You are wrong about the emigration stats - every year except for 2009, has the majority of emigrants without work - adding all of the 3 lines below the 'work' line, exceeds the 'work' line, except for 2009:
    http://i.imgur.com/YB7BWi8.gif
    http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?Maintable=PEA20&Planguage=0

    I'd redo the graph with them all added together, but don't have anything to-hand for doing this right now - if people try and misrepresent the graph though, I may do that to make it completely unambiguous.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    You just keep paying the monthly amount.

    As I said - like renting.



    It's pre 2008, the tax hasn't changed since 2013 when their was a slight increase.

    So your "hasn't changed in years" was a lie ?

    BTW it was almost a 10% increase.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭CFlat


    Billy86 wrote: »
    Tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment now than were in 2011.

    These lads are not interested in any good news and will deny anything that makes the current government look good. They even prefer to give credit to FF for implementing the changes then giving any kudos to FG/Lab. It's laughable really.

    I lost my job in 2010, ended up on one of those much criticised government funded projects. Been in full employment for the last 18 months. Earning half what I earned in pre 2008 but it's still doable. Not pretty, but anything is better than signing on.

    I have nothing but good words to say about this government. The negativity here on Boards is just shocking. I'd hate to live my life like that.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,207 ✭✭✭EazyD


    CFlat wrote: »
    These lads are not interested in any good news and will deny anything that makes the current government look good. They even prefer to give credit to FF for implementing the changes then giving any kudos to FG/Lab. It's laughable really.

    I lost my job in 2010, ended up on one of those much criticised government funded projects. Been in full employment for the last 18 months. Earning half what I earned in pre 2008 but it's still doable. Not pretty, but anything is better than signing on.

    I have nothing but good words to say about this government. The negativity here on Boards is just shocking. I'd hate to live my life like that.

    It's not about being interested or disinterested in good news. Its simply stating an irrefutable fact. The blueprint of our recovery was established long before 2011, when FG were not in power. In laymans terms, they simply followed the hymn sheet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,690 ✭✭✭✭Skylinehead


    FTFY.

    You're better than snide remarks like that KB.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/employed-persons

    He's right. Employment is increasing, emigration or not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,495 ✭✭✭✭Billy86


    Why are you quoting this random statistic? What does e.g. babies born in Ireland (highest birthrate in EU) do to counter what I posted?
    As you seem to be implying that Ireland had a miraculous natural increase of over a half a million in the last five years, which not only offset emigration but actually beat it out by hundreds of thousands (thus leading to a larger population but smaller total workforce, can you explain to me how our working age population (15-64) has increased by over 150,000 from 2011-2015?

    Not only has the natural increase been way, way less than half of what you seem to be suggesting at around 210,000 from 2011-2016 (rather than 500,000+), but our working age population has gone up by roughly 150,000.

    In 2011, Ireland's working age population (15-64) was 3,100,000, with an unemployment rate of 15.1% late in the year - that comes to about 468,000.

    As of 2016, the working population (15-64) has increased to 3,250,000 and yet unemployment has dropped to 8.8%, the lowest it has been in seven years - that comes to about 268,000.

    So allow me to correct my earlier post where I said "tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment now than were in 2011." In truth, the number is nearly double that - an increase in the neighbourhood of 180,000 in employment.





    Also before you or whoever else (because someone inevitably always does) bring up JobsBridge, horrible a scheme that it is, it typically accounts for less than 5,000 - so about 2.75% - of those 180,000.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    You're better than snide remarks like that KB.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/employed-persons

    He's right. Employment is increasing, emigration or not.
    It wasn't intended to be snide, I was counterpointing the increase in employment and reduction in unemployment, with the truly massive emigration levels out of Ireland, which completely warp our perception of the unemployment figures:
    Ireland has the highest percentage of people living abroad out of all OECD countries. One out of every six Irish-born people currently resides in another country, illustrating the devastating and enduring impact the global financial crisis has had on the country.
    https://www.statista.com/chart/4237/the-countries-with-the-most-people-living-overseas/

    Posters are deliberately ignoring the context behind the stats, to try and portray Fine Gael as saviour's - even though they did bugger all to boost employment (apart from creating 'job training'/intern schemes to hide unemployment), with our 'recovery' being driven mainly by events external to our economy (since we're an extremely open economy) - and in doing this, people are deliberately playing down Fine Gaels massive failures, such as massive emigration.


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  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]



    So your "hasn't changed in years" was a lie ?

    BTW it was almost a 10% increase.

    3 years = years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    3 years = years.

    Within the lifetime of the government.

    You deliberately played down the when and the how much.


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    Within the lifetime of the government.

    You deliberately played down the when and the how much.

    The water charges and tax increase are both cancelled by less than two months increase in take home pay for me. That leaves me with 10 more months of increased take home pay.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,981 ✭✭✭KomradeBishop


    Billy86 wrote: »
    As you seem to be implying that Ireland had a miraculous natural increase of over a half a million in the last five years, which not only offset emigration but actually beat it out by hundreds of thousands (thus leading to a larger population but smaller total workforce, can you explain to me how our working age population (15-64) has increased by over 150,000 from 2011-2015?

    Not only has the natural increase been way, way less than half of what you seem to be suggesting at around 210,000 from 2011-2016 (rather than 500,000+), but our working age population has gone up by roughly 150,000.

    In 2011, Ireland's working age population (15-64) was 3,100,000, with an unemployment rate of 15.1% late in the year - that comes to about 468,000.

    As of 2016, the working population (15-64) has increased to 3,250,000 and yet unemployment has dropped to 8.8%, the lowest it has been in seven years - that comes to about 268,000.

    So allow me to correct my earlier post where I said "tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment now than were in 2011." In truth, the number is nearly double that - an increase in the neighbourhood of 180,000 in employment.





    Also before you or whoever else (because someone inevitably always does) bring up JobsBridge, horrible a scheme that it is, it typically accounts for less than 5,000 - so about 2.75% - of those 180,000.
    What on earth are you going on about? Our population has not increased by 300,000 since 2011, it has increased by 60,000-72,000:
    http://i.imgur.com/iTuHDzS.jpg
    http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2015/ (Table 1)

    Where are you pulling the bullshít 'half a million' figure from above, which you attribute to me? Don't put words in my mouth, thanks.

    Your working age population figures appear to be total bullshít - care to provide some citation for them?
    http://i.imgur.com/Sz1CH2W.jpg
    https://data.oecd.org/pop/working-age-population.htm

    http://i.imgur.com/FsQ4uHO.gif

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UkiBA-ZWZDw/VeNWsJYjZmI/AAAAAAAAZbY/lOGvSp434xM/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2015-08-30%2Bat%2B13.36.35.png
    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/08/30815-migration-changes-in-irish.html


    Your quote of an 180,000 increase in employment since 2011 is also disproved by Skylinehead's link and the CSO, which shows 140,000:
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/employed-persons
    http://i.imgur.com/GUIE2hK.gif

    Your statistics are completely and provably fabricated lies, which you do not cite/source, and which totally/irrecoverably discredit you and all your arguments.


    I would say that the sole purpose of all that nonsense, is to distract from the arguments criticising Fine Gael, and their terrible record of taking claim for a 'recovery' largely felt by better-off sections of the economy, on how they have little-to-no claim of success on employment levels (given that our 'recovery' is largely determined by external economic events), and by the utterly dismal emigration figures for Ireland, which make an absolute huge dent in our unemployment figures.

    I guess we should congratulate the emigrants - rather than government - for doing so much to help the unemployment figures :rolleyes:


  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    Jamsiek wrote: »
    Why did it work in Iceland then?
    They let the banks fail and the economy recovered.

    As others have pointed out you can compare Ireland and Iceland.

    For a start they have their own currency, much smaller population etc.

    Letting the banks fail would have been the end of Ireland as we know it, the end of investment from abroad, the end of multinationals coming here. We would be just another Greece, a total shambles of a country.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,973 ✭✭✭Sh1tbag OToole


    This simply isn't true, either you haven't a clue about it or you are just guessing.

    The list price doesn't change of you are buying for cash or going on PCP so for a start you are immediately wrong there, seconding you are make it sound like a scam that the plan is to trade up after the 3 years that's the who point in the first place. The aim is to get a new car every three years and if done correctly you can do it with little or no deposit after the fist deposit. You just keep paying the monthly amount. It's a very very good way to get a new car, just look at the repayment per month and the interest you would pay on a car loan in comparison with PCP.

    Its a great way of keeping you in the maximum depreciation band, but I won't complain too hard because a few years after I might buy your car for a fraction of what you paid.

    The list price doesn't change but you'll usually knock quite a few quid off if you buy outright (and don't bring them a hape to sell on)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,507 ✭✭✭Buona Fortuna


    I'm voting for Enda.

    He's a thoroughly nice chap and he held the door open for my mother at a do last year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,757 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    RobertKK wrote: »
    The latest poll has Labour being wiped out and FG will probably lose at least 20 seats, they will be a long way from being in government.

    I would not be surprised if FF ended up pushing FG for most seats. Enda has not been impressive in the live debates, while Micheal Martin has been generally accepted as being the best performer of the bigger parties so far during the campaign.
    I think it is like in the UK where many didn't tell the pollsters they would vote for the Tories, and like in our local elections, FF ended up with most votes and seats despite polls saying FG was the most popular.

    Maybe FG will be supporting a FF government...

    Remember who called it :P

    Sunday Independent poll shows FF are closing in on FG, and now just 4% behind.
    FG 27%
    FF 23%
    SF 19%
    Labour 6%
    AAA/PBP 5%
    SD 4%
    Green 2%
    Renua 1%
    Independents are on 27% with 13% undecided.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    The water charges and tax increase are both cancelled by less than two months increase in take home pay for me. That leaves me with 10 more months of increased take home pay.

    That was a given, considering that you already said that the income tax changes gave you an extra €80 a week.

    Most people got an extra €3 - €5 a week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,078 ✭✭✭✭LordSutch


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Sunday Independent poll shows FF are closing in on FG, and now just 4% behind.
    FG 27%
    FF 23%
    SF 19%
    Labour 6%
    AAA/PBP 5%
    SD 4%
    Green 2%
    Renua 1%
    Independents are on 27% with 13% undecided.

    Anyone know or guess how that might translate into seats?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Remember who called it :P

    Sunday Independent poll shows FF are closing in on FG, and now just 4% behind.
    FG 27% 28
    FF 23% 20
    SF 19% 18
    Labour 6% 7
    AAA/PBP 5% 5
    SD 4% 4
    Green 2% 3
    Renua 1% 2
    Independents are on 27% 13

    Latest Poll of Polls in bold above.


    Oh, and yours comes to well over 100%.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Anyone know or guess how that might translate into seats?

    Afaik...their is actually aMaths formula for this...not sure of it off top my head

    Seen it before (only roughly accurate as deosnt take into account local considerations)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 32,688 ✭✭✭✭ytpe2r5bxkn0c1


    LordSutch wrote: »
    Anyone know or guess how that might translate into seats?

    Seats given on the poll of polls tonight.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/longform/2016/0220/769380-poll-of-polls-updates/


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,768 ✭✭✭✭tomwaterford


    Latest Poll of Polls in bold above.


    Oh, and yours comes to well over 100%.

    Be curious to see would labour be out polled by the socialist party/ it's aligned AAA/PBP....this would be the first in a very long time if the case??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,939 ✭✭✭John_Rambo


    PCP is a scam. They jack up the price before you buy to factor in interest and give you the illusion of 0%, but where they really make their money is in hoping that you won't have the balloon payment at the end so you end up on the perpetual buying-new-car treadmill.

    The entity that is Irish water only costs us more money, it creates a few 100 cushy office jobs in Dublin that weren't needed before while the council continues to look after the infrastructure. Property tax and the other FG taxes are also making life more expensive for you

    And Mullingar, and Castlebar, and Cavan, and Donegal, and Kilkenny, and Limerick, and Mallow. Just setting you straight there. ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,102 ✭✭✭Stinicker


    Renua, Social Democrats, Fine Gael and Labour to form the next Government. I really don't see why FG can't get cozy with Gerry Adams, SF would go into Government if called upon I feel. Hopefully Fianna Fail stays under 30 seats.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,096 ✭✭✭✭the groutch




  • Posts: 24,714 [Deleted User]


    That was a given, considering that you already said that the income tax changes gave you an extra €80 a week.

    Most people got an extra €3 - €5 a week.

    I said around 80 a month between this budget and the last. I wish it was 80 a week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,757 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Latest Poll of Polls in bold above.


    Oh, and yours comes to well over 100%.

    Yeah some of the smaller parties were in the independents number.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭baldbear


    Stinicker wrote: »
    Renua, Social Democrats, Fine Gael and Labour to form the next Government. I really don't see why FG can't get cozy with Gerry Adams, SF would go into Government if called upon I feel. Hopefully Fianna Fail stays under 30 seats.

    You can't see why FG wouldn't go into government with SF? They are complete opposites. FF & FG will hop into bed no problem. But SF? Never in a million years.

    Social democrats will be in government & Lucinda Creighton will be Renuas only seat.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭Jack Killian


    I said around 80 a month between this budget and the last. I wish it was 80 a week.

    Still 7 times what most people got.


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