General Election - Feb 26th Megathread

SafeSurfer

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

And far too much support for SF.

33% support for FG on the boards.ie poll. It doesn't surprise me really. I am always amazed at the conservatism on boards. In what I assume is quite a young demographic, the narrow mindedness and old fashioned ideas are remarkable.
FG supporters point to an economic recovery under their tenure and the collapse of the economy under FF. What they will not mention is the prevailing global economic conditions that have led to benign conditions currently, low interest rates, low oil prices,weak euro. Or acknowledge global economic conditions which prevailed in 2008.

See rumours of a Sunday Times poll around that has FG 30, FF 22, SF 15 and LAB...4...

corny

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Yes we know what FG are like, they came in when the country was on its knees and have overseen our recovery and got the country well back on track. They have now started to remove some of the necessary evils such as USC and started to put money back in peoples pocket and we are seeing rapid growth and job creation thanks to them. They aren't perfect but they have done a very good job. Mad to vote for the party that's helped the country recover from a massive recession? I think not.

If the likes of SF were in power or all the other "burn the bondholders", "say no to the IMF", "don't bail out the banks" idiots the country would be in ruins absolutely destroyed just like Greece. I have to laugh (though it isn't funny) when I see people still support parties would would not have cooperated with the IMF despite seeing how we would have ended up looking at Greece.

Just be thankful it was FG in power for the last few years.

Ha. Your analysis is complete rubbish and I suspect you haven't a clue about what you're talking about.

The fact the Irish state paid billions of public money to private interests should never be so casually brushed off. Who's to say what the situation would be like now had we defaulted. Winding up the banks and solely doing business with IMF might have worked. Iceland did well out of telling the European powers to **** themselves.

#1 Social Democrats
#2 Green Party
#3 Labour
#4 Fine Gael
#5 Fine Gael

Haven't decided my preference order after that, but as I live in Lucinda Creighton's constituency I am making sure to give every candidate except her a number. Yay for small and insignificant (and arguably quite petty) victories! \o/

Would really like to see the Social Democrats do well, they're the only party around at the moment that I'd consider becoming a member of.

KomradeBishop

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Yes we know what FG are like, they came in when the country was on its knees and have overseen our recovery and got the country well back on track. They have now started to remove some of the necessary evils such as USC and started to put money back in peoples pocket and we are seeing rapid growth and job creation thanks to them.

Bullshít. They are riding on the benefits of external economic conditions, and are desperately trying to take credit for any/all good things that have happened for the economy, and taking responsibility for virtually none of the bad things.

I doubt there's a person in the country who can't see through that bollocks.

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Mad to vote for the party that's helped the country recover from a massive recession? I think not.

Don't take what I said and put it in different words. Closer to what I said, would be: Mad to vote for a cronyistic party like Fine Gael, who shapes the 'recovery' we're supposedly having, so that it primarily benefits the upper echelons of society - the well connected industries and businessfolk, who make up the established power base in this country.

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

If the likes of SF were in power or all the other "burn the bondholders", "say no to the IMF", "don't bail out the banks" idiots the country would be in ruins absolutely destroyed just like Greece. I have to laugh (though it isn't funny) when I see people still support parties would would not have cooperated with the IMF despite seeing how we would have ended up looking at Greece.

Just be thankful it was FG in power for the last few years.

What exact policy are SF promising to implement, that will result in that?

I don't like SF one bit, but they are a far sight better than cronyistic parties like FF/FG - and desperate scaremongering like what you're trying to engage in here, shows you don't actually have any substantive criticisms of them (hell, I've put more substantive criticism of them here, than that).

The main problems vocal FG supporters tend to have with SF, is that they are in any way left of the status quo, and that they threaten to uproot current establishment powers privileged positions.

KomradeBishop

SafeSurfer wrote: »

33% support for FG on the boards.ie poll. It doesn't surprise me really. I am always amazed at the conservatism on boards. In what I assume is quite a young demographic, the narrow mindedness and old fashioned ideas are remarkable.
FG supporters point to an economic recovery under their tenure and the collapse of the economy under FF. What they will not mention is the prevailing global economic conditions that have led to benign conditions currently, low interest rates, low oil prices,weak euro. Or acknowledge global economic conditions which prevailed in 2008.

I wouldn't take that poll at face value - expect an influx of newly regged FG supporters in the next week.

Rumple Fugly

The high support for FG makes me think we get what we deserve in this country

Satriale

KomradeBishop wrote: »

I wouldn't take that poll at face value - expect an influx of newly regged FG supporters in the next week.

"I dont usually vote FineGael, but they haven't done a bad job last few years so i will this time!"

Phoebas

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Bullshít. They are riding on the benefits of external economic conditions, and are desperately trying to take credit for any/all good things that have happened for the economy, and taking responsibility for virtually none of the bad things.

Wouldn't you expect the other PIIGS to be equally benefiting if it was all down to external economic conditions?

The government must have played some role in the recovery?

ninebeanrows

I do believe when it boils down to it there will be a similar government returned with a less majority.

FG (32%)+LAB (7%)+SD (4%)+GREEN(3%)

The LAB vote had just fractured to SD, GREEN and OTHERS

FG will slip a few points lent votes from FF in last election.

FF will do well enough considering, probably get 24% of vote.

dasdog

l'll use my vote to try and prevent Alan twenty houses GSOC cvnt Shatter from being re-elected. It's a poisoned chalice no matter which amateur landlords, publicans and school teachers get in Leinster St if a global downturn triggers.

Looking forward to democracy in action next week though for a little ankle kicking.

CFlat

KomradeBishop wrote: »

I wouldn't take that poll at face value - expect an influx of newly regged FG supporters in the next week.

Id say there's already been an influx of new registrations and would suggest that they are more SF supporters then FG ones but maybe for transparency Boards should reveal all who have voted. Even just for the laugh because Boards certainly isn't representative of the country on the whole.

I'm not a FF supporter but there is no way they are going to do as badly as the poll here suggests.

corny

corny wrote: »

Ha. Your analysis is complete rubbish and I suspect you haven't a clue about what you're talking about.

The fact the Irish state paid billions of public money to private interests should never be so casually brushed off. Who's to say what the situation would be like now had we defaulted. Winding up the banks and solely doing business with IMF might have worked. Iceland did well out of telling the European powers to **** themselves.

There is absolutely no doubt that this country would be ruined for generations if we had defaulted and let the banks fail. The decisions of the government are being proven correct with every passing day.

There is no way we would be having the growth and job creation we are now, that people would be back being able to spend money, buy houses etc and be looking at having our crazy high taxes reduced at last. The country would have collapsed.

The fact people can't see that makes me think think they really have absolutely no clue at all about how the situation was and how a different course of action would mean we would not be a country in bits rather than one that's improving faster than most other countries in the world. FG are owed a hell of a lot of thanks for how they got us here, if the likes of SF were in power there is a high chance you wouldn't be able to get money from an ATM today.

KomradeBishop

Phoebas wrote: »

Wouldn't you expect the other PIIGS to be equally benefiting if it was all down to external economic conditions?

The government must have played some role in the recovery?

Which of the other PIIGS are well known as a heavy finance-based open economy and tax haven? Virtually every economist out there, notes Ireland is an open economy - and that it is thus highly exposed to the ups and downs of world economic conditions.

I didn't say all, and I said 'recovery', not recovery.

RobertKK

So a leaked opinion poll for the Sunday times has:
FG 30%
FF 22%
SF 15%
Labour 4%

A wipeout of Labour????

Sh1tbag OToole

Red Panties wrote: »

The government could have chosen to default on their bond obligations, they made the right choice not to and now we are seeing a recovery. If we followed the advice if the burn the bondholder brigade we would be much worse off. Ireland's economy is showing impressive growth.

Not necessarily: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/imf-ireland-could-have-saved-billions-by-burning-anglo-bondholders-617688.html

The global economy does not care if Ireland burns a few bondholders and will move on fairly quickly because its not a huge amount of money in the scheme of things.

KomradeBishop

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

There is absolutely no doubt that this country would be ruined for generations if we had defaulted and let the banks fail. The decisions of the government are being proven correct with every passing day.

There is no way we would be having the growth and job creation we are now, that people would be back being able to spend money, buy houses etc and be looking at having our crazy high taxes reduced at last. The country would have collapsed.

The fact people can't see that makes me think think they really have absolutely no clue at all about how the situation was and how a different course of action would mean we would not be a country in bits rather than one that's improving faster than most other countries in the world. FG are owed a hell of a lot of thanks for how they got us here, if the likes of SF were in power there is a high chance you wouldn't be able to get money from an ATM today.

The country already is fúcked for generations - there is no way out of the mess the Euro created, we are trapped in, and people are generally too thick to see the looming economic crises on the way, and that nothing from the last crisis was dealt with - only delayed to a future point - and will come home to roost, to tank our economy for another generation, unless something is done to fix the whole mess (which may not happen in our lifetimes - because this whole mess greatly benefits certain powerful parts of societies).

There is no crisis for those better off in our societies though, is there? No, many of the elite/established sections of society get the equivelant of free fúcking money, due to how QE massively raises the wealth of the finance industry and those who are already wealthy.

More than that, Fine Gael are among the parties who works with established powerful sections of society, so that any 'recovery' is reserved disproportionately for those more powerful/privileged sections of society/business - not the average person.


This is why there is so much effort at trying to promote them as economically 'prudent'/'successful' (yes - they are a huge economic success for certain privileged parts of society/business), and why there is so much bullshít scaremongering about parties, who threaten to run government more in favour of the average person - as if not pandering disproportionately to existing established/powerful interests, would magically collapse the economy, rather than restoring some economic fairness/justice.

KomradeBishop

Red Panties wrote: »

The government could have chosen to default on their bond obligations, they made the right choice not to and now we are seeing a recovery. If we followed the advice if the burn the bondholder brigade we would be much worse off. Ireland's economy is showing impressive growth.

Why are you quoting my post? That is not a reply to anything I said in the quoted post.

corny

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

There is absolutely no doubt that this country would be ruined for generations if we had defaulted and let the banks fail. The decisions of the government are being proven correct with every passing day.

There is no way we would be having the growth and job creation we are now, that people would be back being able to spend money, buy houses etc and be looking at having our crazy high taxes reduced at last. The country would have collapsed.

The fact people can't see that makes me think think they really have absolutely no clue at all about how the situation was and how a different course of action would mean we would not be a country in bits rather than one that's improving faster than most other countries in the world. FG are owed a hell of a lot of thanks for how they got us here, if the likes of SF were in power there is a high chance you wouldn't be able to get money from an ATM today.

There's no cogent reasoning behind that opinion though. You believe that because you want to believe it.

Iceland was an absolute basket case during the financial crisis, far worse than Ireland. They liquidated two of their biggest banks effecting foreign (mainly Dutch and UK) depositors. Yet if you index GDP growth their economy recovered quicker than ours. Actually by most metrics, their economy recovered quicker than ours.

As I said, I suspect what you're regurgitating is political speak. Consider this. The fact our economy is in reasonable shape now doesn't prove the plan implemented was the only way. There's more than one way to skin a cat! We might have done better out of telling the Germans to do one.

RobertKK

corny wrote: »

There's no cogent reasoning behind that opinion though. You believe that because you want to believe it.

Iceland was an absolute basket case during the financial crisis, far worse than Ireland. They liquidated two of their biggest banks effecting foreign (mainly Dutch and UK) depositors. Yet if you index GDP growth their economy recovered quicker than ours. Actually by most metrics, their economy recovered quicker than ours.

As I said, I suspect what you're regurgitating is political speak. Consider this. The fact our economy is in reasonable shape now doesn't prove the plan implemented was the only way. There's more than one way to skin a cat! We might have done better out of telling the Germans to do one.

Iceland was not in a monetary union, nor in the EU. They could devalue their currency and do things we couldn't.
The Icelandic economy is tiny in comparison to Ireland.
Our central bank, the ECB was not open to measures that Iceland took. We needed the ECB on side or it would have been similar to Greece and their banks which were shut for weeks, until the Greek government came on side with the ECB.

Jack Killian

RobertKK wrote: »

Iceland was not in a monetary union, nor in the EU. They could devalue their currency and do things we couldn't.
The Icelandic economy is tiny in comparison to Ireland.
Our central bank, the ECB was not open to measures that Iceland took. We needed the ECB on side or it would have been similar to Greece and their banks which were shut for weeks, until the Greek government came on side with the ECB.

Just yesterday the UK was threatening to leave the EU and got a meeting in which a negotiation took place; neither side got everything they wanted, but both sides compromised. An actual deal was negotiated. By real polticians who didn't roll over and make their employers take it up the arse.

Jack Killian

Phoebas wrote: »

Wouldn't you expect the other PIIGS to be equally benefiting if it was all down to external economic conditions?

The government must have played some role in the recovery?

You would if you were cluelessly regurgitating the spin.

Ireland does more trade with the U.K. & U.S. than the others, which means that we are a completely different scenario, bringing in cash from outside the Eurozone.

corny

corny wrote: »

There's no cogent reasoning behind that opinion though. You believe that because you want to believe it.

All you have to do is look at Greece and you have your answers of how we would have ended up had we gone down that road.

Jack Killian

JustTheOne wrote: »

Its over 5 budgets depending on revenue returns.

Its not all of a sudden.

It was "impossible" just 10 weeks ago. It is also almost the exact same as SF, as they have a "clawback" (aka call it something new and confusing, but definitely don't say we're keeping any USC as "abolish" will fool the too-stupid-for-fiscal-space) on those over €100,000.

And the "depending on annual returns" is a suitably vague caveat; they'll keep it and probably blame FF

Jack Killian

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

All you have to do is look at Greece and you have your answers of how we would have ended up had we gone down that road.

Completely disingenuous. FG love making comparisons NOW with Greece, but before Greece was cut loose they were blaming Syriza there while blaming FF here. If they were even remotely credible or consistent they would have blamed Greece's PREVIOUS Government, but that consistency didn't suit the narrative.

KomradeBishop

Jack Killian wrote: »

Just yesterday the UK was threatening to leave the EU and got a meeting in which a negotiation took place; neither side got everything they wanted, but both sides compromised. An actual deal was negotiated. By real polticians who didn't roll over and make their employers take it up the arse.

Yea but if the EU/ECB don't like what we do, they can just make up an excuse to pull the rug out from under our economy, like the ECB did with Greece.

We don't live in an actual democracy anymore - you can't have full democratic control over your country, without a sovereign currency - as my first post in this thread explained.

RobertKK

Jack Killian wrote: »

Just yesterday the UK was threatening to leave the EU and got a meeting in which a negotiation took place; neither side got everything they wanted, but both sides compromised. An actual deal was negotiated. By real polticians who didn't roll over and make their employers take it up the arse.

Ireland didn't have years to talk about what measures should be taken, which is what it took the UK to get from talking about a referendum, to negotiations to a referendum still to come later in the year.

Jack Killian

RobertKK wrote: »

Ireland didn't have years to talk about what measures should be taken, which is what it took the UK to get from talking about a referendum, to negotiations to a referendum still to come later in the year.

Ireland doesn't do "years of planning", because FF & FG only do the basics with a view on the next election.

RobertKK

Jack Killian wrote: »

Ireland doesn't do "years of planning", because FF & FG only do the basics with a view on the next election.

I think that is unfair on both.

I mean if that was the case we wouldn't be one of the wealthiest countries in the world.
Watch CNBC, the biggest business channel in the world. Nearly every day Ireland gets mentioned as US companies invert and make themselves tax resident in Ireland.
The planned Pfizer inversion with Irish based Allergan to make Pfizer technically an Irish company is said to be worth over €620 million a year in taxes to our revenue.
So consistent tax policy which has been the case for many years now for companies shows a long term plan.
The IFSC was a long term plan.
Encouraging the pharma companies to ireland was a long term plan.
Building motorways was a long term plan.
Building tunnels in Cork, Dublin and elsewhere was a long term plan, putting in the Luas was a long term plan.
Banning smoking in enclosed spaces was a long term plan.


Some of the budgets close to elections have been short term, but a lot of long term planning has been there too.

corny

RobertKK wrote: »

Iceland was not in a monetary union, nor in the EU. They could devalue their currency and do things we couldn't.
The Icelandic economy is tiny in comparison to Ireland.
Our central bank, the ECB was not open to measures that Iceland took. We needed the ECB on side or it would have been similar to Greece and their banks which were shut for weeks, until the Greek government came on side with the ECB.

I don't accept the comparison with Greece (their debt dwarfs ours and their economy was always built on fragile foundations) but you're right its not exactly like for like with Iceland. My point was more we would have been entering uncharted waters had we wound up the banks. I don't accept the seemingly straightforward assumption that we'd be an absolute basket case had we done so.

We would have forced the hand of the ECB and the likes of Merkel and it might have got messy but let's be honest the alternative has hardly been palatable.