General Election - Feb 26th Megathread

Custardpi

It will be interesting to see how close the polls are to the actual results. Can the various polling companies be sure enough of their methodology to avoid the kind of credibility disaster which their colleagues across the water suffered post the UK general election?

ToddyDoody

What's Dec Ganley doing now?

RobertKK

The Irish general election is so boring so far, much prefer the US Presdential election.
Over in the US, Trump is threatening to sue Ted Cruz over his citizenship, while Ted Cruz removed one of his campaign ads as it had a porn actress in it.
All we have is the Green party in court over RTE, and no porn actresses in ads.

My name is URL

The debate tonight should be an absolute **** show with 7 people all shouting over each other. Was bad enough with 4 the other night

osarusan

My name is URL wrote: »

The debate tonight should be an absolute **** show with 7 people all shouting over each other. Was bad enough with 4 the other night

Got kicked out of the Foundation Building in UL at 2pm so they could do a 'security sweep'.


Hopefully my bomb isn't found. It's rigged to go off at the 1st usage of the term 'going forward'.

Boulevardier

I have set up an alarm that will emit deafening squeals as soon as "fiscal" and "space" are used in the same sentence.

Easca Peasca

Interesting to see Renua ahead of Greens in the pole, AAA only marginally behind. Always thought the Greens had more of a pull than that.

CFlat

Are you talking about the poll here on Boards? Because if you are I certainly wouldn't use it as a barometer for whats going on in the real world. Its mainly a slugging match between SF and FG here. I'd say there is more than one new account been opened in order for people to vote!! Anyway there is no way FF is going to be that far behind on when the votes are counted.

Stinicker

Easca Peasca wrote: »

Interesting to see Renua ahead of Greens in the pole, AAA only marginally behind. Always thought the Greens had more of a pull than that.

The Greens are as Toxic as Fianna Fail in my book, I'd more consider voting FF than Greens and Hell would have to freeze over first before I'd vote FF.

Specialun

Joan burton looks like a melted welly

diomed

I miss the Greens talking about how windmills will solve the national debt.

take everything

My name is URL wrote: »

The debate tonight should be an absolute **** show with 7 people all shouting over each other. Was bad enough with 4 the other night

Fairly civilised at the moment.
Claire is doing a great job.

Easca Peasca

Joan Burton's voice is terribly hard to listen to, regardless of the point she's making.

The_Valeyard

take everything wrote: »

Fairly civilised at the moment.
Claire is doing a great job.

She needs to wave the wooden spoon.

Baggy Trousers

Social Democrats #1

MilesMorales1

'These kids are going to be carrying guns in a years time cos we took their services away'

Kinda getting away from the question?

KomradeBishop

Have to say, was thinking of not voting due to being disaffected with pretty much all parties - but the Social Democrats are actually looking pretty damn sensible compared to just about all other parties.

They are very small yet - and no doubt, along with this goes a lack of experience in governing that would hamper them - but their judgement on many issues seems to be about right, and it would be very promising to see them make some real inroads in this election.

They likely formed too late to gain significant power in this election - but maybe by the next GE, they may grow into a large enough party, to contend on equal (if not better) footing with the other large parties.

KomradeBishop

Oh, cool - just saw over on PC that the Social Democrats have a new Boards 'Talk To' page:
http://www.boards.ie/ttforum/1741

Graces7

ken wrote: »

Can you make it from here to the gate in 9 seconds cause the Doberman can do it in 10 and he takes no prisoners.

Saw that sign on a field gate in Fenit only it was " the bull"..

iDave

Donnelly the only one coming out of that with any credibility. RBB could if joined him but too shouty.
Burton is a liability to Labour.

KomradeBishop

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Have to say, was thinking of not voting due to being disaffected with pretty much all parties - but the Social Democrats are actually looking pretty damn sensible compared to just about all other parties.
.

Committed to maintaining the current tax levels..... good luck getting votes with policies like that. Tax cuts are an absolute must for the next gov, FG are on the money with their USC abolition plans and hopefully other tax cuts or further increases in tax free threasholds for inheritance tax etc will also happen during the life of the next government.

FG and some independents will be getting my votes again that's for sure.

the groutch

I actually commend Donnelly for not taking the populist approach of selling the abolition of USC as some sort of panacea.

iDave

the groutch wrote: »

I actually commend Donnelly for not taking the populist approach of selling the abolition of USC as some sort of panacea.

Correct. Look at Bridger Easy Lock's comment above. Completely suckered in by FG auction politics.

Laois_Man

Balmed Out wrote: »

Should be interesting results. Any chance of a labour bounce or would fg go into bed with ff

I find it impossible to see how the next Government is going to be formed.

The 2 Government parties are going to be around 10 seats short of a majority and the only combination that adds up is a FG/FF coalition meaning FF would have to concede both party leader status to FG or opposition leader to SF doing potentially enormous damage to their future. I'm certain FG would go for it if they thought FF would. But they know they wouldn't as a party!

Other than that, it's the 2 Government parties in coalition with literally all of the small parties and even that is still a slender majority.

The other option is the 2 government parties, plus Renua plus about 7 independents out of the 19 or so that will be elected. That probably what will happen. But expect another election before long!

Not forgetting that the Labour Party will have to appoint a new leader if Joan loses her seat as it seems she will. In fact, they'll probably gove her the boot even if she does.

Prediction

Fine Gael 54
Fianna Fáil 35
Sinn Fein 24
Independents 19
Labour 15
Anti Austerity 4
Renua3
Social Democrats 3
Greens 1


Government: FG, Labour, Renua plus 7 independents (or Social Democrats plus 4 independents) - Whichever way it goes, we'll be back at the polls within 2 years I think

iDave

iDave wrote: »

Correct. Look at Bridger Easy Lock's comment above. Completely suckered in by FG auction politics.

I'm quite happy with how FG have done over their term, they have got the country back on track, done a lot of good work and on top of that I'm seeing my monthly pay check going up due to reductions in tax and USC etc along with some other good stuff they have done. They are going to continue to put more money in my pocket and at the end of the day that's one of the most important things for me.

I will happily vote for them again (I've always voted FG) along with one or two independents who have done good local work in my area over the last few years.

TripleC

the groutch wrote: »

I actually commend Donnelly for not taking the populist approach of selling the abolition of USC as some sort of panacea.

Except that taking a populist line is exactly what Donnelly has done for the past 5 years.

When I first saw him in an election debate prior to the 2011 election I was deeply impressed. Here was an Independent who seemed to break the mold. He was neither far left nor parish pump, and most Independents are one or the other. He was educated, erudite and thoughtful and he promised to vote on a case by case issue. Low and behold he turned out to be anti everything. He has literally jumped on every populist bandwagon.

Furthermore, whilst the SDs are keeping the USC they seem to be making alot of other populist uncosted tax changes such as abolishing Irish Water. Even journalists, who as a class seem to be a little misty eyed about the SDs, have pronounced that the SD Manifesto was the only manifesto without elaborate costing.

I agree, Donnelly came across really well in the Debate. He was fantastic when it came to illustrating a vision of how things should be. However, and this isn't being picked up on amidst the gushing praise, but for those of us who don't believe in panaceas he was actually dreadfully vague when he was pushed on details. Obviously, he wasn't alone there. But, neither is he or the SDs the cure all that many seem to think they are.

Huntergonzo

The Social Democrats aren't the answer to all our prayers but they do appear to be the most socially Liberal party in the election and that would interest the likes of myself, although I'm not sure where they stand economically and I haven't even decided whether or not I'm going to vote yet.

But if you look at the other parties socially:

FF = the ultimate parish pump party, a catholic conservative paradise party.

FG = bit like FF but not quite as extreme, but still socially conservative.

SF = don't care, would never vote for them given their dodgy past and I'm not satisfied that they don't have a dodgy present either.

Labour = probably the most liberal of the main parties but they take their orders from FG and they seemingly have no qualms about abandoning their principles.

Renua = Ireland's answer to the American Republican party, wouldn't go near this lot.

AAA/PBP = I did hear Boyd Barrett say he wanted to repeal 8th which is good but how would their economic model work? They seem too far left to me.


So basically all of those options are a no no for the socially liberal voter, that leaves us the Social Democrats, independents or abstention, I'm favouring the latter so far.

D9Male

I was vaguely aware of Donnelly before last night, but I was very impressed with him in the first half of the debate last night. I liked the way he carried himself, and didn't snipe at others in the usual way.

I looked up his party's policies and manifestos this morning. I am less than impressed. Some good ideas in there, but I am fundamentally opposed to some of his policies, including his water charge proposals.

I think we need to charge people depending on how much water they use.

PARlance

TripleC wrote: »

.... Obviously, he wasn't alone there. But, neither is he or the SDs the cure all that many seem to think they are.

The SD's have a dozen or so candidates, anyone seeing them as a cure would want to.... I dont see any viewing him as a cure though.

I think people found him refreshing. I've been a fan of his from the start. He's far from perfect but he's far enough removed from the usual tripe we have to deal with.

KomradeBishop

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Committed to maintaining the current tax levels..... good luck getting votes with policies like that. Tax cuts are an absolute must for the next gov, FG are on the money with their USC abolition plans and hopefully other tax cuts or further increases in tax free threasholds for inheritance tax etc will also happen during the life of the next government.

FG and some independents will be getting my votes again that's for sure.

Yea a giveaway budget with tax cuts, as a new economic crisis looms, that doesn't ring any bells now does it...

MilesMorales1

I was quite impressed with renua going solely from last nights debate, given that was the first and only time I've even heard of them, but I'll still be going for Fine Gael.

KomradeBishop

All parties are equally screwed economically. Our countries finances don't depend on what happens in Ireland anymore, they depend on the EU and particularly the ECB - we don't have full democratic control over our economy anymore, because to have that, you need control over your own currency.

So, the Social Democrats would have to work within the economic restrictions the EU sets, just like every other party would have to - economic/political conditions are not in a dire enough state yet, that parties would consider other options for restoring proper democratic control over the economy.

So all the talk over budgets, tax/spending giveaways etc., is largely nonsense that is out of the control of any Irish politician. We work within the EU's restrictions.

Irish parties do however, have the control to run the economy in ways that are either more or less equitable/just/fair, within the restrictions set for us.
Some parties are trying to 'buy' us with cheap giveaway-budget tactics (that led us into the last mess), when ultimately they will just give us more of the same without any real reform - the Social Democrat's can be credited with avoiding cheap tactics like this, while presenting what looks like good and honest judgement, on the kind of reforms that are needed - reforms that should help us avoid future crises.

The principle problem is not that a party offers a 'giveaway' budget either, it is the reforms proposed against corrupt/cronyistic running of the country - you can have a 'giveaway' budget (without just using it as a cheap/cynical election ploy) + reforms, that genuinely boost the economy in an equitable/fair/just way, while avoiding the corrupt tendencies that led us into crisis in the past - if economic conditions are good enough, the SD's could yet provide this if in power, but would be foolish to promise it before gaining power (as other parties have), as it is impossible to predict future economic conditions.

KomradeBishop

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Yea a giveaway budget with tax cuts, as a new economic crisis looms, that doesn't ring any bells now does it...

Economic crisis looming? We are moving in the opposite direction to an economic crisis. We have one of the fastest growing economies in the world, unemployment is falling, people have more money in their pockets, people are spending more money, houses are selling, car sales are rocketing etc etc.

People have gone through the recession and had their take home pay slashed its time to get rid of these emergency measures as the crisis is over and back to people getting more into their pockets at the end of the month through reduction in taxes. Thankfully FG can see this and have already put more money in peoples pockets with the last two budgets and they plan to continue this. Abolishing USC is just a start of what needs to happen, the public service pension levy needs to be got rid of asap the higher rate of tax reduced and the threshold where it kicks in increased, inheritance tax thresholds need to be increased and the rate of tax reduced.

The_Valeyard

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Economic crisis looming? We are moving in the opposite direction to an economic crisis. We have one of the fastest growing economies in the world, unemployment is falling, people have more money in their pockets, people are spending more money, houses are selling, car sales are rocketing etc etc.

International storm clouds are forming. Something by which our export / multinational based economy is very vulnerable. There are a lot of economic bumps ahead, we need to be careful not to end up in the ditch again.

D9Male

Renua are the PD's with rosary beads.

Foxhound38

1.) Labour - purely because I don't really want FG in on their own or overly tied to independents - I also think that while they weren't particularly effective they do get more blame than they deserve for the problems with this coalition

2.) Soc Dems - I'm probably most impressed with this crowd. Stephen Donnelly and Roisin Shorthall have been impressive.

3.) FG - for all the moaning that has gone on (and don't get me wrong, there has been problems), this has been a far better government than those that came before it in the recent past.

I'm not sure where I'll give my preferences after this.

My name is URL

Huntergonzo wrote: »

FF = the ultimate parish pump party, a catholic conservative paradise party.

FG = bit like FF but not quite as extreme, but still socially conservative.

You have it arseways there. FG are far more socially conservative than FF

They're literally a 'Christian Democratic' party

They have by far the lowest party support for a referendum on repealing the 8th Amendment

https://twitter.com/repealeight/status/699388190264791041

Huntergonzo

My name is URL wrote: »

You have it arseways there. FG are far more socially conservative than FF

They're literally a 'Christian Democratic' party

They have by far the lowest party support for a referendum on repealing the 8th Amendment

https://twitter.com/repealeight/status/699388190264791041

I wouldn't have said there's a huge difference in fairness, but don't forget that gay marriage came in only last year under FG, FF dragged their heals a bit on backing it and indeed seemed to be a little more on the No side.

Also last time FF were in they passed a law banning blasphemy for fúck sake!, so I won't entertain talk that "FG are far more socially conservative than FF". I accept that there's not really a big difference bewteen those parties though.

Ulysses Gaze

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Economic crisis looming? We are moving in the opposite direction to an economic crisis. We have one of the fastest growing economies in the world, unemployment is falling, people have more money in their pockets, people are spending more money, houses are selling, car sales are rocketing etc etc.

A little like 2006/2007.....and guess what happened.

My name is URL

My name is URL wrote: »

They have by far the lowest party support for a referendum on repealing the 8th Amendment

https://twitter.com/repealeight/status/699388190264791041

Another reason they will be getting my vote.

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

A little like 2006/2007.....and guess what happened.

It's nothing like 2006/2007. Things are being kept in check, not like the free for all back then. The hard working, over taxed people of the country deserve something back and that's what we will hopefully get from FG. I find it quite bizarre that some people don't want extra money in their pay packet at the end of the month.

Huntergonzo

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Another reason they will be getting my vote.



It's nothing like 2006/2007. Things are being kept in check, not like the free for all back then. The hard working, over taxed people of the country deserve something back and that's what we will hopefully get from FG. I find it quite bizarre that some people don't want extra money in their pay packet at the end of the month.

They do but how are they going to get it, vote FG? Doesn't that sound like silly populist party slogan language to you, 'vote for us and we'll put extra money in your pocket', oh nice one, where do I sign up?

FG aren't talking about important social issues such as repealing the 8th amendment or addressing religious patronage of publicly funded schools, so I'm not interested.

Huntergonzo

Huntergonzo wrote: »

They do but how are they going to get it, vote FG? Doesn't that sound like silly populist party slogan language to you, 'vote for us and we'll put extra money in your pocket', oh nice one, where do I sign up?

Nothing silly about it, silly slogans are all the clowns in the AAA etc with their main slogan being oppose water charges and having it plastered all over their posters.

Huntergonzo wrote: »

FG aren't talking about important social issues such as repealing the 8th amendment or addressing religious patronage of publicly funded schools, so I'm not interested.

Yes they are important social issues, I want to see the 8th amendment maintained and schools to keep their catholic patronage and continue to teach the Catholic faith. The fact FG are not really talking about it tells me they want to maintain things the way they are also so gives me another reason to vote for them, not that I need it as I've always been an FG voter.

I saw a nice jump in my take home pay at the end of Jan thanks to FG and I hope to see this trend to continue in their next spell in government.

PARlance

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

It's nothing like 2006/2007. Things are being kept in check, not like the free for all back then. The hard working, over taxed people of the country deserve something back and that's what we will hopefully get from FG. I find it quite bizarre that some people don't want extra money in their pay packet at the end of the month.

It is in the sense that whilst we're being told that we're a great little nation, there are reasons to be cautious due to worrying signs in global economics. These will greatly affect our great little economy.

Scrapping USC is the big election carrot being dangled in front of Joe Soap. It's lazy and borderline irresponsible. But it makes Joe happy. Joe will most likely complain about it when Mc Williams writes a book about it in a few years time. But Joe will want to be bought again the next time around.

Kenny or Burton had no real retort to Donnelly's claims that the abolition of USC would leave the country with no wriggle room in future. You've been bought.

I'm voting FG as well. I'm buying into the best worst option. It'd be great if the USC was another broken promise.

Huntergonzo

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Nothing silly about it, silly slogans are all the clowns in the AAA etc with their main slogan being oppose water charges and having it plastered all over their posters

It is silly slogans, but if they get you off then have at it. However I agree about AAA and I hate opposition parties jumping on the Irish Water bandwagon, I've always said that.

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Yes they are important social issues, I want to see the 8th amendment maintained and schools to keep their catholic patronage and continue to teach the Catholic faith. The fact FG are not really talking about it tells me they want to maintain things the way they are also so gives me another reason to vote for them, not that I need it as I've always been an FG voter.

I saw a nice jump in my take home pay at the end of Jan thanks to FG and I hope to see this trend to continue in their next spell in government.

Well then we fundamentally disagree, I want abortion on demand and secular education in publicly funded schools (private schools are more than welcome to maintain their religious ethos because it's their own business). Anyway somehow I doubt we'll reach agreement on this.

TripleC

Hey

I don't think anybody can claim the SDs haven't been populist. Certainly they haven't proposed the abolition of the USC. However, their stance on Water Charges is populism at its most basic. Likewise, the lack of costings for their highly aspiration manifesto suggests slightly politics.

I don't entirely understand who people often brand FG as more conservative then FF. I suspect its the age old mistake of confusing Social Conservatism with Economic Conservatism. FF are a weird amalgam of a party, combining fairly Left wing Statist spending policies with almost theocratic Social policies. In that sense they are more comparable to certain Latin American Populist Parties then anything in Europe. They then tend to skew things when other Irish parties are view through the false prism that FF are Right Wing. On the other hand, although FG are arguably to the Left of European Christian Democratic movements, they are the closed we have to such a Group in Ireland (Renua aside). However, possibly as far back as the 60s and certain since the 80s, when they championed a Divorce Referendum, they have certainly been more progressive then FF. As limited as the recent Legislation on Abortion was, its worth remembering that if FF had been in power it would not have been passed. FF would have commissioned a report, established a working group or in short done anything to delay such Legislation until after the Election. Of course, FG get no credit for this as those who were screaming at them to do something couldn't bring themselves to compliment Enda Kenny for getting the Bill passed at fairly high cost, so instead they called him undemocratic for forcing members to vote against their will.

AtomicHorror

TripleC wrote: »

I don't entirely understand who people often brand FG as more conservative then FF. I suspect its the age old mistake of confusing Social Conservatism with Economic Conservatism. FF are a weird amalgam of a party, combining fairly Left wing Statist spending policies with almost theocratic Social policies.

I thought the cliche with FG was that they want to privatise everything. I thought that was the whole issue with Irish Water? Not very leftist economics there.

KomradeBishop

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

Economic crisis looming? We are moving in the opposite direction to an economic crisis. We have one of the fastest growing economies in the world, unemployment is falling, people have more money in their pockets, people are spending more money, houses are selling, car sales are rocketing etc etc.

People have gone through the recession and had their take home pay slashed its time to get rid of these emergency measures as the crisis is over and back to people getting more into their pockets at the end of the month through reduction in taxes. Thankfully FG can see this and have already put more money in peoples pockets with the last two budgets and they plan to continue this. Abolishing USC is just a start of what needs to happen, the public service pension levy needs to be got rid of asap the higher rate of tax reduced and the threshold where it kicks in increased, inheritance tax thresholds need to be increased and the rate of tax reduced.

Ya just what all the fools said in the lead up to the last crisis "nothing to see here, all is well". Even a cursory reading of recent world economic events, shows we're heading into crisis again.

Keep on toeing the party line though.

JustTheOne

KomradeBishop wrote: »

Ya just what all the fools said in the lead up to the last crisis "nothing to see here, all is well". Even a cursory reading of recent world economic events, shows we're heading into crisis again.

Keep on toeing the party line though.

Huge difference this time around is we our economy isn't wholly based on construction.

KomradeBishop

JustTheOne wrote: »

Huge difference this time around is we our economy isn't wholly based on construction.

"This time it's different" - another oft repeated mantra, echoing the last crisis as well.

We still have up to 75% of the Private Debt burden of the previous crisis - the Private Debt, being what tanked our economy before, and ready to implode our banking system yet again (requiring bail-ins this time - i.e. depositors paying for the bailout) - and an open economy that's highly vulnerable to a global economic slowdown.

We haven't even 'recovered' from the last crisis - much of our 'recovery' is emigration based:
https://www.statista.com/chart/4237/the-countries-with-the-most-people-living-overseas/

The central banks have just about used up all their tricks for staving off crises - when this coming crisis develops, there will be nothing left that central banks can do, to put off dealing with the root of it this time - we could be looking at permanent stagnation/deflation, or by the time the next GE comes around, we may already be forced into restoring a national currency (with all the economic chaos/destruction that entails).


Do you notice how all of the rosy predictions for a positive future for the economy, never come about? Why the IMF has a near-perfect track record of failed predictions, for a positive economic future?
That's because such predictions are all politically motivated lies, to maintain current powers and avoid dealing with these problems.

JustTheOne

KomradeBishop wrote: »

"This time it's different" - another oft repeated mantra, echoing the last crisis as well.

We still have up to 75% of the Private Debt burden of the previous crisis - the Private Debt, being what tanked our economy before, and ready to implode our banking system yet again (requiring bail-ins this time - i.e. depositors paying for the bailout) - and an open economy that's highly vulnerable to a global economic slowdown.

We haven't even 'recovered' from the last crisis - much of our 'recovery' is emigration based:
https://www.statista.com/chart/4237/the-countries-with-the-most-people-living-overseas/

The central banks have just about used up all their tricks for staving off crises - when this coming crisis develops, there will be nothing left that central banks can do, to put off dealing with the root of it this time - we could be looking at permanent stagnation/deflation, or by the time the next GE comes around, we may already be forced into restoring a national currency (with all the economic chaos/destruction that entails).


Do you notice how all of the rosy predictions for a positive future for the economy, never come about? Why the IMF has a near-perfect track record of failed predictions, for a positive economic future?
That's because such predictions are all politically motivated lies, to maintain current powers and avoid dealing with these problems.

Please tell me how Irish people overseas has caused the recovery bearing in mind we have always had Irish people living overseas throughout our history?