General Election 2016 - Louth Constituiency

05-02-2016 2:33pm #1

Five to be elected from the following candidates...

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ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 05-02-2016 2:39pm

RTE website has a one minute film piece from each candidate.

http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/candidates/

LCD · 05-02-2016 4:04pm

http://www.smartvote.ie/

Nice to compare your views with those on the ballad paper

MugMugs · 05-02-2016 9:57pm

GREAT post OP. well done!

event · 05-02-2016 11:37pm

Anyone care to make predictions?

Big Gerry, Imelda Munster, Declan Breathnach, Ged Nash, Fergus O Dowd.

Breathnach taking Kirks seat, Munster taking Fitzers.
Would be shocked at any other outcome

event · 05-02-2016 11:37pm

Anyone care to make predictions?

Big Gerry, Imelda Munster, Declan Breathnach, Ged Nash, Fergus O Dowd.

Breathnach taking Kirks seat, Munster taking Fitzers.
Would be shocked at any other outcome

10green bottles · 06-02-2016 1:57am

Voters in West Drogheda/East Meath will be a bit pished off with their exclusion from this thread

event wrote: »

Anyone care to make predictions?

Big Gerry, Imelda Munster, Declan Breathnach, Ged Nash, Fergus O Dowd.

Breathnach taking Kirks seat, Munster taking Fitzers.
Would be shocked at any other outcome

I see there is already a split in the FF camp with the resignation yesterday of a former director of elections Of theirs because they have no candidate from South Louth running.Coffey is Drogheda based but is from Dundalk.
http://www.independent.ie/regionals/droghedaindependent/news/kierans-quits-ff-as-rift-deepens-34416108.html

I'd call it SF(2) FG(1)(O'Dowd) LAB(1)(Nash) IND(1)(?)

Slugger O'Toole predicts Meave Yore as a surprise IND winner.Has she any base outside of North Louth/Dundalk ?

http://sluggerotoole.com/2016/01/27/ge16-guide-to-louth-champagne-on-ice-for-a-sinn-fein-two-seater-certainty/

delly · 06-02-2016 4:26am

I would have been voting for Nash up until the whole Drogheda boundary review farce. He can swing for it now however.

Lord TSC · 07-02-2016 11:06pm

Has it always been standard for the party leaders to be have posters of their own faces up? There's pictures of Kenny, Martin and Burton round Colpe now.

Funnily enough, not Adams though; seems to be they are really pushing Munster #1 and not massively putting Adams' face out there...

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 07-02-2016 11:22pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

Has it always been standard for the party leaders to be have posters of their own faces up? There's pictures of Kenny, Martin and Burton round Colpe now.

Funnily enough, not Adams though; seems to be they are really pushing Munster #1 and not massively putting Adams' face out there...

Adams is on every pole around here. Fed up looking at them already

locum-motion · 07-02-2016 11:53pm

Adams can fcuk right off. From what I hear, he owns property in Belfast, Donegal and Clontarf. He can fcuk off and seek election in one of those constituencies, as far as I'm concerened. He has no right to seek election in Louth/East Meath. He only chose here because of our comparatively high proportion of "republicans" in this county - most of whom are nordies who came down here on the run in the 70s-80s. As far as I'm concerned, they can fcuk off up home too.

tayto lover · 08-02-2016 12:08am

We have a very poor choice in Louth. I can't remember it as bad. None of them appeal to me. I might even vote No.1 Maeve Yore who at least is working for a good cause i.e Special Needs children.

whelan2 · 08-02-2016 10:06am

tayto lover wrote: »

We have a very poor choice in Louth. I can't remember it as bad. None of them appeal to me. I might even vote No.1 Maeve Yore who at least is working for a good cause i.e Special Needs children.

Think my vote will just be to keep Adams out

IvoryTower · 08-02-2016 10:19am

delly wrote: »

I would have been voting for Nash up until the whole Drogheda boundary review farce. He can swing for it now however.

What happened?

White Horse · 08-02-2016 3:12pm

The provos should have enough votes for two seats if they can get their vote management right.

O'Dowd should be OK for FG in south Louth. However, I think Nash will struggle.

There has to be one FF seat and I'd tip Fitzer for the last seat.

So 2 SF, 2FG, and one FF.

White Horse · 08-02-2016 3:12pm

The provos should have enough votes for two seats if they can get their vote management right.

O'Dowd should be OK for FG in south Louth. However, I think Nash will struggle.

There has to be one FF seat and I'd tip Fitzer for the last seat.

So 2 PSF, 2FG, and one FF.

Lord TSC · 08-02-2016 3:38pm

IvoryTower wrote: »

What happened?

Long story short, he's been trying to get the boundaries changed round Colpe and the outskirts of Drogheda, so as to get the estates flipped from being in Meath to being in Louth, so he'd generate more votes.

The pro side, as he puts it, is "It is utter nonsense and goes against every principle of sensible planning to have, for example, 5,600 people living in estates on the fringe of Drogheda and expected their services to be delivered by Navan. Boundary lines should be drawn up according to regional need and not confined by traditional county divisions in cases where those boundaries are clearly out-dated."

(Source: https://www.facebook.com/GedNash/posts/818418171570229)

The downside, as far as I can tell, is that house values will be negatively affected, since "Meath" is nicer to have on an address than "Louth". I'm guessing there's more to it than that though?

I have to admit, on the surface, I don't see the big deal, but then I don't own my own house, and sign my address as "Grange Rath, Louth" anyway, and I'm a dirty Adams voter at the moment :P

White Horse · 08-02-2016 3:43pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

The pro side, as he puts it, is "It is utter nonsense and goes against every principle of sensible planning to have, for example, 5,600 people living in estates on the fringe of Drogheda and expected their services to be delivered by Navan. Boundary lines should be drawn up according to regional need and not confined by traditional county divisions in cases where those boundaries are clearly out-dated."

Its unusual to get sensible thinking like that from politicians.

I might consider give him a vote now.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 08-02-2016 3:53pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

Long story short, he's been trying to get the boundaries changed round Colpe and the outskirts of Drogheda, so as to get the estates flipped from being in Meath to being in Louth, so he'd generate more votes.

The pro side, as he puts it, is "It is utter nonsense and goes against every principle of sensible planning to have, for example, 5,600 people living in estates on the fringe of Drogheda and expected their services to be delivered by Navan. Boundary lines should be drawn up according to regional need and not confined by traditional county divisions in cases where those boundaries are clearly out-dated."

(Source: https://www.facebook.com/GedNash/posts/818418171570229)

The downside, as far as I can tell, is that house values will be negatively affected, since "Meath" is nicer to have on an address than "Louth". I'm guessing there's more to it than that though?

I have to admit, on the surface, I don't see the big deal, but then I don't own my own house, and sign my address as "Grange Rath, Louth" anyway, and I'm a dirty Adams voter at the moment :P

Makes perfect sense. Some estates were split by the boundary up to this.

I'd admire him for this practical approach.

Pighead · 08-02-2016 3:59pm

Don't think Jeff Rudd is running anymore. It's hard to call this one. It looks like Gerry Adams, Imelda Munster and Fergus O'Dowd are pretty nailed on but after that it's going to be a dogfight between Nash, Fitzpatrick, Breathnach, Coffey and Yore for the remaining two seats.. I've heard Mark Dearey mentioned as a dark horse but I'd be surprised if he's in the reckoning.

locum-motion · 08-02-2016 4:13pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

Long story short, he's been trying to get the boundaries changed round Colpe and the outskirts of Drogheda, so as to get the estates flipped from being in Meath to being in Louth, so he'd generate more votes.

The pro side, as he puts it, is "It is utter nonsense and goes against every principle of sensible planning to have, for example, 5,600 people living in estates on the fringe of Drogheda and expected their services to be delivered by Navan. Boundary lines should be drawn up according to regional need and not confined by traditional county divisions in cases where those boundaries are clearly out-dated."

(Source: https://www.facebook.com/GedNash/posts/818418171570229)

The downside, as far as I can tell, is that house values will be negatively affected, since "Meath" is nicer to have on an address than "Louth". I'm guessing there's more to it than that though?

I have to admit, on the surface, I don't see the big deal, but then I don't own my own house, and sign my address as "Grange Rath, Louth" anyway, and I'm a dirty Adams voter at the moment :P

To me, they sound like good reasons to vote FOR Nash, not against. Can't be what Delly was referring to.

Lord TSC · 08-02-2016 4:27pm

White Horse wrote: »

Its unusual to get sensible thinking like that from politicians.

I might consider give him a vote now.

Saoirse Spoiled Camel wrote: »

Makes perfect sense. Some estates were split by the boundary up to this.

I'd admire him for this practical approach.

locum-motion wrote: »

To me, they sound like good reasons to vote FOR Nash, not against. Can't be what Delly was referring to.

As I said, there might be more to it, or something else. Thats my understand of it, and is possibly very naive....

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 08-02-2016 4:28pm

Lord TSC wrote: »

As I said, there might be more to it, or something else. Thats my understand of it, and is possibly very naive....

No you're spot on. That's all it was.

White Horse · 08-02-2016 4:35pm

I looked up the latest RED C poll for Louth:

FF 14%
FG 25%
LB 10%
SF 32%
OTH 19%

There is nothing guaranteed in those numbers other than 1 SF and 1 FG.

Both FF and Labour are crazy running two candidates. If they both split their vote evenly they could end up without a seat.

On the other hand, both SF and FG need an even split to enhance their chances of two seats.

Turnout will be key, SF traditionally have a poor turnout while FG have benefited in the past from a higher turnout of their voters.

10green bottles · 08-02-2016 5:35pm

White Horse wrote: »

I looked up the latest RED C poll for Louth:

FF 14%
FG 25%
LB 10%
SF 32%
OTH 19%

There is nothing guaranteed in those numbers other than 1 SF and 1 FG.

Both FF and Labour are crazy running two candidates. If they both split their vote evenly they could end up without a seat.

On the other hand, both SF and FG need an even split to enhance their chances of two seats.

Turnout will be key, SF traditionally have a poor turnout while FG have benefited in the past from a higher turnout of their voters.

Since when?

If Coffey wins a seat i'll eat ten hats.

08-02-2016 5:47pm

White Horse wrote: »

I looked up the latest RED C poll for Louth:

FF 14%
FG 25%
LB 10%
SF 32%
OTH 19%

There is nothing guaranteed in those numbers other than 1 SF and 1 FG.

Both FF and Labour are crazy running two candidates. If they both split their vote evenly they could end up without a seat.

On the other hand, both SF and FG need an even split to enhance their chances of two seats.

Turnout will be key, SF traditionally have a poor turnout while FG have benefited in the past from a higher turnout of their voters.

More or less spot on there, amateur hour stuff from most of the parties. Doubt SF will get to the 2 seats and there could be a lot of rounds of counting and if it's as tight as it looks then a recount or 2 could give different results.

White Horse · 08-02-2016 5:52pm

10green bottles wrote: »

Since when?

It is a long standing trend. I don't know why it happens.

Stephen Collins is one of the commentators who have documented that SF tend to poll much lower in the actual election than in the opinion polls.

"The last Irish Times poll in May had Sinn Féin on 20 per cent of the vote, yet in the local elections a few days later it won 15 per cent. By contrast Fine Gael at 24 per cent and Fianna Fáil at 25 per cent won exactly the same share of the vote in the election as they got in the poll.

Something similar happened in the presidential election of 2011 when the party got 13.5 per cent of the vote having polled 18 per cent during the campaign."

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-performance-not-guaranteed-to-translate-into-votes-at-election-1.1956306

10green bottles · 08-02-2016 5:54pm

Not in Louth WH.

08-02-2016 8:56pm

10green bottles wrote: »

Not in Louth WH.

That's because their vote in Louth is stronger. In Louth they'll likely match their national poll numbers.

Pighead · 09-02-2016 12:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

More or less spot on there, amateur hour stuff from most of the parties. Doubt SF will get to the 2 seats and there could be a lot of rounds of counting and if it's as tight as it looks then a recount or 2 could give different results.

Why do you doubt Sinn Fein will get two seats? Munster is a pretty strong favourite to get in.

tayto lover · 09-02-2016 5:10pm

Fitzer might have a better chance if he could speak English.

General Election 2016 - Louth Constituiency

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