Up coming Donegal election

jackireland

Who do we think will get in?

I'll go for 4 certainties, Doherty, the cope, Mchugh and McLoughlin.

Last one will be too close to call

retalivity

The 4 above, plus pringle

jackireland

Well if its pringle, thats 3 from south Donegal, be interesting.

SF will be in running for 3rd seat, with Dessie Shiels and Niamh kennedy too

retalivity

I wouldnt class cope or doherty as south donegal, and the old constituency boundaries dont reqlly matter anymore.. but that five does leave letterkenny without any representation. Maybe shiels would poll strongly on that basis

jackireland

Possibly, but he probably needs 2K votes outside letterkenny and do well on transfers.

Nollog

I'm new to the area, have no idea who any of those are.

Who are the usuals up here?

muffler

/\/ollog wrote: »

I'm new to the area, have no idea who any of those are.

Who are the usuals up here?

12:30PM on Thursday of this week is the closing time for nominations so we will then know the full list of runners.

Just out of curiosity have you a vote here in Donegal?

Nollog

muffler wrote: »

12:30PM on Thursday of this week is the closing time for nominations so we will then know the full list of runners.

Just out of curiosity have you a vote here in Donegal?

Yeah, I transferred a few weeks after moving last year.

Checked the register last week and I'm good to go.

Firblog

TG4 Poll here

iamnotme

/\/ollog wrote: »

I'm new to the area, have no idea who any of those are.

Who are the usuals up here?

Lot of them have got hundreds of thousands in pensions, between ministerial positions and European charade. They may stand again. And they'll get re-elected. Cos they are good Donegal salt-of-the-earth. And they went on radio and whinged about Paddy Joe's pothole on the boreen. Paddy Joe's whole extended family will be out in force come election day. Local politics, Irish style.

overshoot

Firblog wrote: »

TG4 Poll here

Ha just along the lines of what I was thinking.FF despite everything ran 2 in Sth Donegal last time and they both polled well but took votes from each other and Pringle got in. They will get 2 in a 5 seater, similarly SF will keep McLoughlin and Doherty but aren't big enough for a third. That leaves FG to take the last.
If there is a real back lash against FG or Sinn Fein mess up their transfers Pringle may hold on but I think Niamh Kennedy will take a few votes away from him too

Billydoc

I predict. P Doherty, Mc Loughlin, Mc Hugh, The Cope and Mc Conalogue. Pringle and Kennedy will hurt each other and none will get in. The only independent would be shields which has a chance I feel fighting with mc Conalogue.

muffler

Billydoc wrote: »

I predict. P Doherty, Mc Loughlin, Mc Hugh, The Cope and Mc Conalogue. Pringle and Kennedy will hurt each other and none will get in.

Thats pretty much how I would see it also.

Out of those 5, McConalogue is the only one that could have a bit of a battle on his hands. Pringle will poll well enough but wont get as many votes as he did in the last election and Kennedy will take some of his vote also.

I would also expect McHugh to receive fewer votes than last time out but the party faithful should come good for him.

Paddy Harte should also get a decent amount of first preferences but not enough that will leave him in sight of the finishing line. Even with transfers from McHugh its not going to be Paddy's day.

Likewise Dessie Shiels should poll well around Letterkenny but outside of that he wont have any support. In fact all the independents wont get any votes worth of talking about outside of their local parish.

The fifth and last seat could be interesting though.

muffler

iamnotme wrote: »

Lot of them have got hundreds of thousands in pensions, between ministerial positions and European charade. They may stand again. And they'll get re-elected. Cos they are good Donegal salt-of-the-earth. And they went on radio and whinged about Paddy Joe's pothole on the boreen. Paddy Joe's whole extended family will be out in force come election day. Local politics, Irish style.

The same could be said about any county in Ireland so apart from ranting your post isnt really contributing anything to the thread.

ednwireland

just run the ff canvassers i think they thought it wold be solid ff round my area they are very wrong

would like to see pringle keep his seat dont think much of the rest of the candidates to be honest.

jackireland

it is very possible 2 FF, 2 SF and 1 FG, but thats too predictable so hopefully an independent will upset things a little!

yourpics

I will be voting for Thomas Pringle.

Hopefully the people of this county will remember the damage done by FF / FG / LAB

Not that one

I reckon SF really focus on maximising the vote management in the last few days and get their three candidates elected (based on full SF voter turn out and voting on party lines rather than geography, and apathy or low turnout on polling day from other traditional FF/FG voters) and Mc Hugh and Mc Connalogue to get other seats.
Pat the Cope and Pringle to 6th/7th.

muffler

The Tirconaill Tribune carried out a poll last week with very interesting results which can be seen here on the Highland Radio website

While its only a poll I think its wide of the mark but time will tell.

yourpics

muffler wrote: »

The Tirconaill Tribune carried out a poll last week with very interesting results which can be seen here on the Highland Radio website

While its only a poll I think its wide of the mark but time will tell.

A Tirconaill Tribune poll for the 2014 Local Elections was correct to within 0.8% for SOME candidates, so there may be some merit to this.

muffler

yourpics wrote: »

A Tirconaill Tribune poll for the 2014 Local Elections was correct to within 0.8% for SOME candidates, so there may be some merit to this.

I wouldnt dismiss it at all and there are large chunks of the poll I would agree with but equally there are pieces of it I dont think will come to fruition. For example it suggests that Padraig McLochlainn wont get reelected but personally I think he will take the third or fourth seat.

But thats just my 2c worth

NIMAN

Had 1st canvasser to the door last night, for Charlie McConalogue FF.

opiniated

I'm going to guess 2 SF, (Doherty and MacLochlann),
1FF (McConalogue - with transfers from Pat the Cope)
1FG (McHugh, with transfers from Harte).

The last seat either Shields or Pringle - though I'm surprised that Tim Jackson is polling so badly.

I suspect he may get more first preferences than the polls suggest, though whether that will be enough to get him over the line is another question entirely.

What is strange is that Independents are collectively polling at about 30%, yet they are unlikely to take more than 1 seat - if that!
Unless, of course, the Independent supporters decide, en masse, to give preferences to all the Independents, which is unlikely!

The transfers will decide who gets elected, not the 1st preferences.
Some things never change!:D:D

ednwireland

opiniated wrote: »

The transfers will decide who gets elected, not the 1st preferences.
Some things never change!:D:D

1st preferences though keep an independent in the fight if they arent there they cant get the transfers

opiniated

ednwireland wrote: »

1st preferences though keep an independent in the fight if they arent there they cant get the transfers

That really depends on how well the parties have their transfer strategy worked out, though!

Remember Joe Kelly?
I first became aware of the power of transfers when he topped the poll on first preferences, but failed to get elected!(Glenties electoral area)

Sorry, I can't remember what year, or whether it was Local or General election, but it stuck in my memory, because I know his family well.

Nollog

Could be some people who just want independents, so they'll structure their preferences accordingly.

Banjoxed

No canvasser here so far, McConalogue had a team around but reversed out again when they saw a SF friend's car in my street (and I'll be voting FG)

Banjoxed

opiniated wrote: »

I'm going to guess 2 SF, (Doherty and MacLochlann),
1FF (McConalogue - with transfers from Pat the Cope)
1FG (McHugh, with transfers from Harte).

The last seat either Shields or Pringle - though I'm surprised that Tim Jackson is polling so badly.

I suspect he may get more first preferences than the polls suggest, though whether that will be enough to get him over the line is another question entirely.

What is strange is that Independents are collectively polling at about 30%, yet they are unlikely to take more than 1 seat - if that!
Unless, of course, the Independent supporters decide, en masse, to give preferences to all the Independents, which is unlikely!

The transfers will decide who gets elected, not the 1st preferences.
Some things never change!:D:D

Tim Jackson will get my last preference after voting all the way down the paper as he is (or was) Youth Defence.

L1011

You can terminate your preference whenever you want. Very last cannot become effective but second last could and I doubt you're likely to want them much either!

Banjoxed

L1011 wrote: »

You can terminate your preference whenever you want. Very last cannot become effective but second last could and I doubt you're likely to want them much either!

Indeed! I like the sport of picking least favoured as much as my first preference

retalivity

One vote for jackson is one too many