Up coming Donegal election

K-9

Pringle was on RTE radio, SF hope Gary Doherty can overtake Shiels which means after those 2 go, Pearse would have a surplus too which would help MacLochlain.

Amazing the fine margins. With 2 candidates with the same surname, never mind the same party, 7 votes is nothing.

muffler

^ ^ A classic of example of how and why voting more than a number 1 is so very important

opiniated

muffler wrote: »

6th Count - Harte eliminated + votes distributed:


Charlie McConalogue, FF 12533
Pearse Doherty, SF +183 - 11053
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +247 - 10941
Joe McHugh , FG +170 - 8965
Thomas Pringle, IND +700 - 7389
Pádraig MacLochlainn, SF +47 - 6008
Gary Doherty, SF +43 - 4420
Tim Jackson, IND +285 - 4319
Dessie Shiels, IND +122 - 4288

Interesting that the Cope and Pearse Doherty got more transfers from Harte than McHugh did!

K-9 wrote: »

Ah, Gary Doherty requested a recount, 7 votes between him and Shiels.

K-9 wrote: »

Pringle was on RTE radio, SF hope Gary Doherty can overtake Shiels which means after those 2 go, Pearse would have a surplus too which would help MacLochlain.

Amazing the fine margins. With 2 candidates with the same surname, never mind the same party, 7 votes is nothing.

Mmm. The elephant in the room is Tim Jackson.
Where will his transfers go?

I wouldn't think they'd go to SF - but if you look at Harte's transfers, voting preferences don't seem to be along party lines, so, who knows?
There's also the issue that Pringle is ex SF, and has pretty much the same views, from Jackson's pro-life supporters viewpoint, anyway.

K-9

That's odd about Harte, can't reason that one at all!

Gary Doherty said yesterday he was hopeful of getting a lot of Jackson's transfers because geography, but they'd pass him as he'd probably be gone.

Then it comes down to what muffler said, preferences. If people put MacLochlain after Gary Doherty he'll get those votes. Even Pearse transfers might help if it means he has that surplus SF were on about.

The Cope was right yesterday though, SF made a balls of this when there was no need.

echo beach

opiniated wrote: »

Interesting that the Cope and Pearse Doherty got more transfers from Harte than McHugh did!

The only way I can explain it is that they might be Dinny McGinley votes. He asked his supporters to vote Harte and they might then have voted by geography, not party.

opiniated

K-9 wrote: »

That's odd about Harte, can't reason that one at all!

Gary Doherty said yesterday he was hopeful of getting a lot of Jackson's transfers because geography, but they'd pass him as he'd probably be gone.

Then it comes down to what muffler said, preferences. If people put MacLochlain after Gary Doherty he'll get those votes. Even Pearse transfers might help if it means he has that surplus SF were on about.

The Cope was right yesterday though, SF made a balls of this when there was no need.

Neither can I.
It's not party. It's not Geography.
Familiar name/performance with the Constituency change, maybe?
Either that, or internal FG bickering?

The Geography idea is interesting, if the recount falls Gary Dohertys way. Even if it does, though, unless there's a huge transfer, both Shields and Jackson are reasonable likely to transfer to one another on the pro-life vote. How many will have expressed that many preferences, though?

There could be an upset, yet?

Nollog

What exactly happens with a vote when the person they voted 1 gets eliminated?

Banjoxed

opiniated wrote: »

Interesting that the Cope and Pearse Doherty got more transfers from Harte than McHugh did!





Mmm. The elephant in the room is Tim Jackson.
Where will his transfers go?

I wouldn't think they'd go to SF - but if you look at Harte's transfers, voting preferences don't seem to be along party lines, so, who knows?
There's also the issue that Pringle is ex SF, and has pretty much the same views, from Jackson's pro-life supporters viewpoint, anyway.

Harte had 3244 votes, 2051 of those transferred to Joe McHugh.

K-9

/\/ollog wrote: »

What exactly happens with a vote when the person they voted 1 gets eliminated?

Goes to your second preference or if they are gone, third etc.

K-9

opiniated wrote: »

Neither can I.
It's not party. It's not Geography.
Familiar name/performance with the Constituency change, maybe?
Either that, or internal FG bickering?

The Geography idea is interesting, if the recount falls Gary Dohertys way. Even if it does, though, unless there's a huge transfer, both Shields and Jackson are reasonable likely to transfer to one another on the pro-life vote. How many will have expressed that many preferences, though?

There could be an upset, yet?

Not sure if Shiels is pro life.

Probably all comes down to the recount. It's a fair gap to make up still and Pringle might pick up a fair few transfers too.

opiniated

muffler wrote: »

6th Count - Harte eliminated + votes distributed:


Charlie McConalogue, FF 12533
Pearse Doherty, SF +183 - 11053
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +247 - 10941
Joe McHugh , FG +170 - 8965
Thomas Pringle, IND +700 - 7389
Pádraig MacLochlainn, SF +47 - 6008
Gary Doherty, SF +43 - 4420
Tim Jackson, IND +285 - 4319
Dessie Shiels, IND +122 - 4288

Banjoxed wrote: »

Harte had 3244 votes, 2051 of those transferred to Joe McHugh.

???
Harte transferred 183 to Pearse Doherty, 247 to Pat the Cope, and 170 to Joe McHugh, according to the 6th count + votes distributed post above yours. With 700 to Pringle (I missed that one!:o), and 285 to Tim Jackson.

The vote transfer choices seem to be all over the place!
No links to Geography, or Party, that I can see.

Unless you're saying Mufflers link is wrong?

echo beach

opiniated wrote: »

How many will have expressed that many preferences, though?

Some people think that count 8 is counting 8th preferences but although an elimination is count 8 they are counting the 2nd preferences of those who gave the eliminated candidate a number 1, and the further preferences of those who have transferred to that candidate in previous counts.
So when Gary D is eliminated the count will be of his 4136 first preferences + the 320 odd votes he picked up in other counts. Shields and Jackson picked up more transfers but their second preferences will still be the biggest part of their transfers.

The SF vote management strategy was for Gary Doherty voters to vote 2 for Pearse D and 3 for MacLochlainn. If their voters did this then it is hard to see how MacLochlain can get over the line.

opiniated

K-9 wrote: »

Not sure if Shiels is pro life.

Probably all comes down to the recount. It's a fair gap to make up still and Pringle might pick up a fair few transfers too.

I genuinely know nothing about the man. (Different Constituency, formerly!).

I read an attack on him for his pro-life views on another well-known discussion site, with some of his supporters defending him, so, assumed it to be at least believable, if not accurate?

It doesn't look as if it will matter, anyway, if previous transfers are any guide. They're all over the place!

echo beach

opiniated wrote: »

Unless you're saying Mufflers link is wrong?

That is a link to the RTE website I think, which is downright confusing. The transfers appear to be those from the previous count.
Irish Times has a much clearer breakdown of the counts which shows that it was indeed a high transfer from Harte to McHugh. http://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/donegal

Banjoxed

opiniated wrote: »

???
Harte transferred 183 to Pearse Doherty, 247 to Pat the Cope, and 170 to Joe McHugh, according to the 6th count + votes distributed post above yours. With 700 to Pringle (I missed that one!:o), and 285 to Tim Jackson.

The vote transfer choices seem to be all over the place!
No links to Geography, or Party, that I can see.

Unless you're saying Mufflers link is wrong?

Harte's votes were distributed on Count Six:

K-9

echo beach wrote: »

Some people think that count 8 is counting 8th preferences but although an elimination is count 8 they are counting the 2nd preferences of those who gave the eliminated candidate a number 1, and the further preferences of those who have transferred to that candidate in previous counts.
So when Gary D is eliminated the count will be of his 4136 first preferences + the 320 odd votes he picked up in other counts. Shields and Jackson picked up more transfers but their second preferences will still be the biggest part of their transfers.

The SF vote management strategy was for Gary Doherty voters to vote 2 for Pearse D and 3 for MacLochlainn. If their voters did this then it is hard to see how MacLochlain can get over the line.

I suppose if Pearse has a big enough surplus after Gary is eliminated a lot of it might go to MacLochlain. I'd say Pringle is SF transfer friendly too so it might not be enough.

echo beach

K-9 wrote: »

I suppose if Pearse has a big enough surplus after Gary is eliminated a lot of it might go to MacLochlain. I'd say Pringle is SF transfer friendly too so it might not be enough.

That is their problem. If Gary D goes out now it will take over a thousand of his transfers to get Pearse D over the quota.

opiniated

http://www.highlandradio.com/2016/02/28/recount-looks-more-likely-as-mac-lochlainn-says-hell-accept-the-will-of-the-people/

A recount looks more likely in Donegal as reports suggest a small number of discrepancies may have been found in the recheck of Pearse Doherty (SF), Gary Doherty (SF) and Dessie Shiels (Ind).

And here we go again?

Firblog

The confusion lies in how RTE reported it, as posted by Muffler below

muffler wrote: »

6th Count - Harte eliminated + votes distributed:


Charlie McConalogue, FF 12533
Pearse Doherty, SF +183 - 11053
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +247 - 10941
Joe McHugh , FG +170 - 8965
Thomas Pringle, IND +700 - 7389
Pádraig MacLochlainn, SF +47 - 6008
Gary Doherty, SF +43 - 4420
Tim Jackson, IND +285 - 4319
Dessie Shiels, IND +122 - 4288

It should read - to avoid this confusion

6th Count - (Niamh Kennedy's) votes distributed:


Charlie McConalogue, FF 12533
Pearse Doherty, SF +183 - 11053
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +247 - 10941
Joe McHugh , FG +170 - 8965
Thomas Pringle, IND +700 - 7389
Pádraig MacLochlainn, SF +47 - 6008
Gary Doherty, SF +43 - 4420
Tim Jackson, IND +285 - 4319
Dessie Shiels, IND +122 - 4288

No one elected - Now Harte eliminated.

muffler

Firblog wrote: »

The confusion lies in how RTE reported it, as posted by Muffler below




It should read - to avoid this confusion

6th Count - (Niamh Kennedy's) votes distributed:


Charlie McConalogue, FF 12533
Pearse Doherty, SF +183 - 11053
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +247 - 10941
Joe McHugh , FG +170 - 8965
Thomas Pringle, IND +700 - 7389
Pádraig MacLochlainn, SF +47 - 6008
Gary Doherty, SF +43 - 4420
Tim Jackson, IND +285 - 4319
Dessie Shiels, IND +122 - 4288

No one elected - Now Harte eliminated.

Yeah in fairness thats the way I should have done it. Apologies

But that RTE site had me confused especially as I was seeing 2 websites at that hour of the morning

opiniated

This is fascinating, from a neutral viewpoint.

If Gary Doherty is eliminated.
Politically, you'd expect the votes to go to Doherty , or Mac Lochlainn, with Pearse picking up enough to get him over the line. Geographically, you'd expect Gary Dohertys votes to go to Jackson, with maybe a nod for Pringle.

If Shields is eliminated - it's anyone's guess. It could go to Ballybofey, or Buncrana, geographically, or to Ballybofey if a big share of the vote perceives Shields as pro-life - or, just get spread all over the place.

It's really hard to make any kind of guess.

K-9

Yep, I don't have a clue either! Shiels did well in Letterkenny and positioned himself as the town candidate plus a strong no corruption and cronyism line. I can't call his transfers at all, I can't imagine there being one big winner of them though.

opiniated

Neither can I.
Though the anti-corruption angle would fit into Jackson's "Clean up Politics" slogan.

The last few counts of this election are going to be the most interesting!:D

muffler

Another count over. P. Doherty elected.

muffler

Gary Dohertys votes distributed in Count 8 resulted in this


Pearse Doherty, SF +3410 - 14600
Charlie McConalogue, FF Count 1 12533
Pat the Cope Gallagher, FF +107 - 11267
Joe McHugh, FG +24 -11040
Thomas Pringle, IND +95 - 7617
Pádraig MacLochlainn , SF +535 - 6567
Tim Jackson, IND +126 - 4650
Dessie Shiels, IND +34 - 4497

opiniated

Typical!
I've been watching this all day, and when I make a cuppa, I pick the exact time that there's news!:D

muffler

opiniated wrote: »

Typical!
I've been watching this all day, and when I make a cuppa, I pick the exact time that there's news!:D

Mighty

K-9

Was watching the football but I love the drama of count day(s).

Doherty's surplus should help MacLochlainn, depends then on those 9,000 Independent votes.

retalivity

Jaysus mclochlainn got bugger all from gary doherty compared to pearse

K-9

We could be in for a long night or into tomorrow. There wasn't a full recount, just a recheck, if it still very tight at the end SF will call for a full recount.

Doherty has a surplus of 2,300 so MacLochlainn should do well there.

With the 2 Independents I can't imagine them favouring him over Pringle to make any substantial difference, can't see any reason why and MacLochlainn hasn't done well on transfers outside SF.