Up coming Donegal election

opiniated

alchemist33 wrote: »

Thanks for the answers!

A surprise result there, with SF shooting themselves in the foot. Interesting that their first preferences were down from the last election.

That would be geographical, I suspect.

Dinny McGinleys supporters were never going to vote for SF.
The votes FF lost in 2011 went to Pearse Dpherty at the time, when Pat the Cope came back, some of them returned to FF.

Interestingly, some of them also seem to have stayed with Pearse Doherty!

NIMAN

Badly played from SF.
Should have been guaranteed 2 TDs.

opiniated

Does it really make that much difference, as things stand?

Realistically, opposition TDs don't really impact all that much on Government policy.

If SF had a chance at being the majority party, it would make a difference, but, as it stands, it's surely more of an internal headache for SF, as opposed to impacting on the electorate.

He seemed a decent enough Politician, from the little I know of him, but that's the way it goes.

Anyway, I expect we will all be voting again sooner rather than later, so, lesson learned, in a trial run, maybe?

muffler

I go away for a few hours and look what happens :eek:

opiniated

muffler wrote: »

I go away for a few hours and look what happens :eek:

At least I only missed the fun by a couple of minutes!:P:D:D

NIMAN

opiniated wrote: »

Does it really make that much difference, as things stand?

Realistically, opposition TDs don't really impact all that much on Government policy.

If SF had a chance at being the majority party, it would make a difference, but, as it stands, it's surely more of an internal headache for SF, as opposed to impacting on the electorate.

He seemed a decent enough Politician, from the little I know of him, but that's the way it goes.

Anyway, I expect we will all be voting again sooner rather than later, so, lesson learned, in a trial run, maybe?

Thing is, SF could be in Gov if they wanted. They have enough seats to form part of a coalition, exccept they take the easy route out and are holding out til they are the majority party.

How long do we genuinely think it will take before SF are the majority party in this country? Do you think it'll happen in the next 20 years? 30 years? Your lifetime?

opiniated

NIMAN wrote: »

Thing is, SF could be in Gov if they wanted. They have enough seats to form part of a coalition, exccept they take the easy route out and are holding out til they are the majority party.

How long do we genuinely think it will take before SF are the majority party in this country? Do you think it'll happen in the next 20 years? 30 years? Your lifetime?

In all honesty, being the majority party doesn't seem to require having that many seats any more. I'm not being sarcastic, or flippant when I say that, it's just the way things seem to have panned out.

I genuinely believe we are facing a very unpredictable future, politically speaking.

The truth is, people seem to be pretty disillusioned with both FF and FG, while not prepared to accept SF wholeheartedly, either.

We will either form some kind of rainbow coalition, (which might actually force the kind of political change I want to see!) or go to the polls again in the next few months.

I suspect we will go to the polls, because all three of the main parties have said they will not go into coalition with one another. ie All three are playing the long game, or lying.

It could be either of the two, and it would probably take a much more politically savvy person than me to work out which!

NIMAN

opiniated wrote: »

In all honesty, being the majority party doesn't seem to require having that many seats any more. I'm not being sarcastic, or flippant when I say that, it's just the way things seem to have panned out.

I genuinely believe we are facing a very unpredictable future, politically speaking.

The truth is, people seem to be pretty disillusioned with both FF and FG, while not prepared to accept SF wholeheartedly, either.

We will either form some kind of rainbow coalition, (which might actually force the kind of political change I want to see!) or go to the polls again in the next few months.

I suspect we will go to the polls, because all three of the main parties have said they will not go into coalition with one another. ie All three are playing the long game, or lying.

It could be either of the two, and it would probably take a much more politically savvy person than me to work out which!

The current seat count is:
FG 47
FF 43
SF 22

To be the major party, SF will have to make up the gap, and imho its huge when you consider people and families have always voted FF/FG and won't be swayed, plus many are of the mindset "Ill never vote for SF".

Now I know older people and attitudes die off, and we might get a younger electorate, but we have a LONG way to go before SF will ever have more seats than FF and FG. They might never be the countrys largest party and since they have said they won't be a minority party in a Government, you have to ask do they really want to be in Government at all?

cosanostra

A lot of suggestion that Sinn Féin running 3 candidates cost them the seat, that is not the main reason.

Pearse took a good chunk of Pml votes in the Inishowen/Lk area thats votes that PmL never gets back.

Charlie McConalogue Polled well exceeding the quota but critically not by much and very little surplus this took another chunk of votes out of PmL area.

PmL picked up around 80% of the transfers from Gary Doherty a few were lost getting pearse over the line but that means that the impact of the 3rd candidate wasn't as significant as it looks on the face of it. Gary Doherty drew votes out of the finn valley that PmL maybe wouldn't have got as well

There was also some suggestion from PmL himself that having the role as justice spokesperson and dealing with things like garda whistle blowers, penalty points issue etc wouldn't have related as well with People in Donegal as maybe education, health or something like that would have.

Pearse pulling votes out of pmL area and an increase in FF vote are the main reasons for PmL losing out but I have no doubt he'll be back in the oireachtas fairly soon.

opiniated

NIMAN wrote: »

The current seat count is:
FG 47
FF 43
SF 22

To be the major party, SF will have to make up the gap, and imho its huge when you consider people and families have always voted FF/FG and won't be swayed, plus many are of the mindset "Ill never vote for SF".

Now I know older people and attitudes die off, and we might get a younger electorate, but we have a LONG way to go before SF will ever have more seats than FF and FG. They might never be the countrys largest party and since they have said they won't be a minority party in a Government, you have to ask do they really want to be in Government at all?

As you said, older attitudes die off. Older Politicians retire. Things change. I suspect that whatever way Government is formed as a result of this election (or the next?), will have a huge bearing on support for all parties - and none.

How that will work out for SF, I neither know, nor care - but there is no point in castigating SF for playing the long game, and exonerating FF/FG for doing the exact same thing.

All three are playing party politics - it's what political parties do, and has a bearing on why my first, second and third preferences went to Independents.

K-9

NIMAN wrote: »

The current seat count is:
FG 47
FF 43
SF 22

To be the major party, SF will have to make up the gap, and imho its huge when you consider people and families have always voted FF/FG and won't be swayed, plus many are of the mindset "Ill never vote for SF".

Now I know older people and attitudes die off, and we might get a younger electorate, but we have a LONG way to go before SF will ever have more seats than FF and FG. They might never be the countrys largest party and since they have said they won't be a minority party in a Government, you have to ask do they really want to be in Government at all?

They need to get over 22/23‰ to start hitting around 40 seats. Like FF yesterday that's when you start picking up 2 seats in constituencies and should have a seat in nearly all of them.

Not that one

Is it likely that PML will get a senate seat now, given that Sinn Fein will have somewhere between 5 to 10 senate seats available?
I dont know the ratio of Senate seats vs Dail seats but presume that SF will have 5-10 seats.

2 Questions regarding our representatives:
1 - Any other Senators likely for Donegal?
2 - Will we get Senior/Junior minister jobs?

If there is a FG/FF joint government, will Joe Mc Hugh retain his Junior minister status or is Charlie Mc Connalogue the likely ministerial position for the county?
My bet would be Charlie getting a junior ministry, but i'd also predict there will be additional junior ministry posts created just to keep the 2 political parties and their dail representatives sweet.

L1011

Not that one wrote: »

Is it likely that PML will get a senate seat now, given that Sinn Fein will have somewhere between 5 to 10 senate seats available?
I dont know the ratio of Senate seats vs Dail seats but presume that SF will have 5-10 seats.

There are 60 Senate seats. 11 are the gift of the Taoiseach and 6 the University seats so SF are unlikely to get any of those - if it is an FF/SF government somehow they'd probably get 5 of the 11 though

The remaining 43 go roughly in the ratio of council and Dail seats, of which they've ~16% or so of both; so 7.

Vote swap deals with other parties might get that to 10 but I'd imagine 8 probably.

K-9

I'd say you are right there, not sure on Senators either but SF will want to keep him in the public eye.

I'd say we could get 2 ministers if FF/FG go in. Charlie had education in the FF front bench, maybe outside senior minister tip.

I'd say some also had in mind that Pearse may well be party leader assuming a new Government lasts a few years.

North of 32

Is Pat the cope seriously seeking to be nominated for ceann comhairle? I think that would be one of the most self serving things I've ever seen a politician do. Then again, it shouldn't surprise me.

ItsLikeThis

Unfortunately there are many in this county who can see no wrong in what Pat the Cope does.

buckfasterer

Aye, good old Cope. Runs as a "Voice for Donegal", yet as CC, he can't have any input, is guaranteed a seat again in the next election and gets paid more or less what Enda is getting.