New Economic crash is here!

Cheerful Spring

Nobody in Irish media is talking about it why? Are we prepared for a crisis worse than 2008?

http://www.livemint.com/Money/T1DfQsEOYivkMu49el8eoN/Nikkei-crash-Japans-worst-stock-market-slumps.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/european-banks-near-terrifying-crisis-raoul-pal.html

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/investing/oil-price-crash/

hatrickpatrick

If this is the case, it'll be the same as 2007. Nobody will report on international problems in the main stream until it's too late to shield Ireland from them. If we're being honest, how many lay folk (IE those not working or investing directly in the financial sector) actually heard about America's subprime mortgage crisis until long after it had started affecting Ireland? Officially, Ireland's recession began in late 2008. Anyone who was watching the financial sector will tell you that it actually began in August 2007 when Bear Stearns suddenly announced that two of its hedge funds had become entirely worthless and the international financial industry went ballistic.

valoren

This is a good thing. Some of the best, biggest and most profitable enterprises in the world will be available on the cheap.

Imagine a man using a yo-yo walking up a flight of steps.
People are obsessed, completely and utterly focused on the up and down motion (volatility) of the yo-yo (i.e. the stock price).

If they just stood back a little they could see that he was slowly but surely climbing up one step at a time (think of each step being a fiscal year), slowly but surely the earnings, the profits, the enterprise is growing.

Dohnjoe

The economic forecast is certainly not the best. Low oil price, volatile markets, Chinese slow-down. It doesn't mean 2007 all over again, nor does it mean should we crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside.

Ken.

Mod-moved to the economics forum. Please read the charter before posting.

saram

Maybe not..

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-update-2016-2

KomradeBishop

I've been reading up a little on the CoCo financial instruments that many Euro banks seem to be heavily involved in, and they are looking analogous to the garbage CDS financial instruments involved in the previous crisis - they may be one of the focal points of the EU side of this crisis - some initial reading here:
www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/a-suspicious-sniff-at-cocos.html

That there has been a new crisis on the way, has been known/expected generally all along though - because QE was never going to do anything but delay the return of inevitable crisis, and that hasn't been much of a secret.

Unless the EU finds a way to generate a massive boost in fiscal spending, we'll be going through cycles of crises and malaise-in-between-the-next-crisis again and again, until the Euro breaks up.

If this new crisis leads to bank instability on the scale of the last crisis, we can now look forward to bail-ins as well (deposit holders in banks being made pay for part of the bailout) - after Cyprus - the threat of which is going to make bank capital very flighty.

screamer

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Nobody in Irish media is talking about it ]

Maybe because like most of us they're just sick of economic crisis.
We have no control over external or global market factors as we painfully learned last time so que cera cera... hyping it up won't change anything.

Chips Lovell

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

Nobody in Irish media is talking about it why?

What Irish media are you referring to? It's been covered on Morning Ireland for weeks now, for example.

Slydice

Is there anything to be said for another lehmans?

KingBrian2

The National Deficit is very important and has not yet become a topic of debate. We will see if it is given the priority it rightly deserves. Without a falling debt rate our ability to receive lending from the international markets will be greatly diminished. Before making promises that cannot be kept due to whatever reasons keeping the National deficit at sustainable levels and making it reduced is something all parties should be getting behind as opposed to the usual paying for everything via all taxes.

My reading of the current problem is that we had a funding crisis and we needed to increase taxes in order to make up for the loss of income due to the banking crisis. Now people are welcome to put their interpretations forward though to suggest you can bring in extra income to pay for all the services without access to international markets is a joke and any party that believes this should not have any TD's elected into Dáil. A plague on their house should they vote against their own interests.