General Election 2016 - Mayo

The Mayo Constituency has changed from 5 seats to 4. Here are the candidates. (As far as I'm aware Michael Kilcoyne is not running)

|Fine Gael| Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, Michelle Mulhern|
|Fianna Fail| Dara Calleary, Lisa Chambers|
|Sinn Fein| Rose Conway-Walsh|
|Independant| Dr. Jerry Cowley, Stephen Manning, Tom Moran, Gerry O'Boyle Sean Forkin Kamal Uddin|
|First Independant Mayo| George O'Malley, Peter Jordan|
|Renua| Michael Farrington|
|Green Party| Margaret Sheehan|

For me I think Enda and Michael Ring are dead certs. Also Dara Calleary will be there. I'm having a punt on Rose Conway-Walsh for the fourth seat but this could be anyone out of her, Chambers, Mulhern and maybe Cowley

I tried to add a poll but that didn't seem to work. I am undecided at the moment and have voted fine gael in 2011

irishgeo

Deleted User wrote: »

For me I think Enda and Michael Ring are dead certs. Also Dara Calleary will be there. I'm having a punt on Rose Conway-Walsh for the fourth seat but this could be anyone out of her, Chambers, Mulhern and maybe Cowley

id go with that

seligehgit

I think Michael Ring will top the poll,Enda Kenny and Dara Calleary will secure seats with a probable significant drop in Kenny's personal vote.Dogfight for the final seat.I think Michelle Mulherin will lose it.Toss up between Lisa Chambers and Rose Conway Walsh who is a bit of a dark horse,Chambers to edge it.

Jerry Cowley has no chance alongside all the others.

irishgeo

seligehgit wrote: »

I think Michael Ring will top the poll,Enda Kenny and Dara Calleary will secure seats with a probable significant drop in Kenny's personal vote.Dogfight for the final seat.I think Michelle Mulherin will lose it.Toss up between Lisa Chambers and Rose Conway Walsh who is a bit of a dark horse,Chambers to edge it.

Jerry Cowley has no chance alongside all the others.

Jerry could take alot of rose Conway Walsh vote in mulranny. I go out on a limb and say it's going to be Lisa. Rose won't transfer well.

Dudda

I don't think FF will get enough votes for two seats. Dara will get the third seat so not much left for Lisa. She might surprise us.
Driving from Castlebar and Westport to Galway Conway has a lot of posters around. Not sure if that and the national average of SF will help transfer into a seat. As mentioned above it will be a dogfight for the last.

Dudda

I don't think FF will get enough votes for two seats. Dara will get the third seat so not much left for Lisa. She might surprise us.
Driving from Castlebar and Westport to Galway Conway has a lot of posters around. Not sure if that and the national average of SF will help transfer into a seat. As mentioned above it will be a dogfight for the last.

mayo.mick

There are now 16 candidates running in Mayo. You might add to the original post OP.

Kamal Uddin Ind

Seán Forkan Ind

relax carry on

mayo.mick wrote: »

There are now 16 candidates running in Mayo. You might add to the original post OP.

Kamal Uddin Ind

Seán Forkan Ind

Quite a few independents then. Will they have any impact?

irishgeo

relax carry on wrote: »

Quite a few independents then. Will they have any impact?

I doubt they will get to expenses quota.

Kristopherus

relax carry on wrote: »

Quite a few independents then. Will they have any impact?

Absolutely none. Only Cowley has a chance of making an impression.

I'd go with the above. Calleary, Kenny & Ring to be the first lot elected. And the 4th seat is a dogfight. If Ring tops the poll (very likely, he probably has gone to enough funerals:D) his surplus would have to go mostly to Mulherin to give her any chance. If Kenny gets in before Calleary, there should be more for Mulherin. Will it be enough? A fascinating scenario whatever way you look at it.

Canadel

mayo.mick wrote: »

There are now 16 candidates running in Mayo.

And effectively 13 candidates vying for 1 seat.

Even more embarrassing though is Mayo's lack of a Labour presence.

gizmo555

Canadel wrote: »

Even more embarrassing though is Mayo's lack of a Labour presence.

The last time Mayo elected a Labour TD was 1927. I'd say they're over the embarrassment by now.

Canadel

gizmo555 wrote: »

The last time Mayo elected a Labour TD was 1927. I'd say they're over the embarrassment by now.

That doesn't make it any less embarrassing.

StewartGriffin

relax carry on wrote: »

Quite a few independents then. Will they have any impact?

Only to dilute each others vote.

I've added the extra independents. I think Cowley will do better than last time under the no doctor no village campaign. Rural areas have lost a lot already, Garda stations, bus services post offices etc.

Haven't met a single candidate yet living and working in rural North Mayo.

Coillte_Bhoy

Canadel wrote: »

That doesn't make it any less embarrassing.

Embarrassing for who exactly?

Coillte_Bhoy

irishgeo wrote: »

Jerry could take alot of rose Conway Walsh vote in mulranny. I go out on a limb and say it's going to be Lisa. Rose won't transfer well.

But a lot of that vote will go back to assuming she stays ahead of him which is a fair assumption. Her not transferring well is irrelevant.

godskitchen

Lads, not sure how I'm voting but I can't find a single person who tells me they will vote for Enda. And I ask pretty much everyone I know about it.

It's not just them saying they don't know, they openly say they are not voting for Kenny.

I'm Castlebar based by the way with a pretty broad spectrum of people I interact with, so its not just one socioeconomic group saying this to me.

Are you all getting positive responses to Enda?

Also people seem to laugh when I suggest Mulhern.

Coillte_Bhoy

godskitchen wrote: »

Lads, not sure how I'm voting but I can't find a single person who tells me they will vote for Enda. And I ask pretty much everyone I know about it.

It's not just them saying they don't know, they openly say they are not voting for Kenny.

I'm Castlebar based by the way with a pretty broad spectrum of people I interact with, so its not just one socioeconomic group saying this to me.

Are you all getting positive responses to Enda?

Also people seem to laugh when I suggest Mulhern.

Mulhern :pac:

Xenji

Canadel wrote: »

And effectively 13 candidates vying for 1 seat.

Even more embarrassing though is Mayo's lack of a Labour presence.

I would be more embarrassed if I ever voted for Labour.

Lads, not sure how I'm voting but I can't find a single person who tells me they will vote for Enda. And I ask pretty much everyone I know about it.

It's not just them saying they don't know, they openly say they are not voting for Kenny.

I'm Castlebar based by the way with a pretty broad spectrum of people I interact with, so its not just one socioeconomic group saying this to me.

Are you all getting positive responses to Enda?

Also people seem to laugh when I suggest Mulhern.

Enda is a laughing stock in the town, but he will get votes from the older generation and Fine Gael lifers, he has honestly done barely anything for his hometown.

godskitchen

Xenji wrote: »

I would be more embarrassed if I ever voted for Labour.



Enda is a laughing stock in the town, but he will get votes from the older generation and Fine Gael lifers, he has honestly done barely anything for his hometown.

I would have thought the same and from talking to people in Castlebar, if I were Enda I would really be worried for my seat.

But from reading the first page on here it seems he is a sure thing.......

Maybe I'm asking the wrong people ....

RMDrive

Canadel wrote: »

And effectively 13 candidates vying for 1 seat.

Even more embarrassing though is Mayo's lack of a Labour presence.

Is the embarrassment not Labour's lack of a Mayo presence?

Xenji

Has anyone seen any polling jobs being advertised, I know a lot of council employees get redeployed for it ( 400 Euro for a day's work ) , but outside of that do you still have to apply to the County Registrar, have a few unemployed family members who benefit from this, but it is likely the same racket as the Census.

gizmo555

RMDrive wrote: »

Is the embarrassment not Labour's lack of a Mayo presence?

I thought Labour's embarrassment was Alan Kelly . . .

godskitchen

godskitchen wrote: »

I would have thought the same and from talking to people in Castlebar, if I were Enda I would really be worried for my seat.

But from reading the first page on here it seems he is a sure thing.......

Maybe I'm asking the wrong people ....

I wouldn't be surprised if he lost 20 - 30% of his vote. but surely he wont loose his seat.
Mulhern has the ringing her boyfriend in Kenya thing over her head but she paid back the money. Then she was of the same opinion on abortion as Lucinda Creighton but went with the party whip instead of sticking to her own beliefs

gizmo555

Deleted User wrote: »

Mulhern has the ringing her boyfriend in Kenya thing over her head but she paid back the money.

She paid it back but all the while insisted that the calls were work-related and to do with her duties as a public representative. Why did she pay it back so? Must think we're all eejits . . .

Kristopherus

Xenji wrote: »

I would be more embarrassed if I ever voted for Labour.



Enda is a laughing stock in the town, but he will get votes from the older generation and Fine Gael lifers, he has honestly done barely anything for his hometown.

Whats this nonesense about doing stuff for your hometown????:( TD's sre elected to legislate. This parish pump attitude has this country ruined. This expectation that a TD has to do something is incorrect imo.

seligehgit

Kristopherus wrote: »

Whats this nonesense about doing stuff for your hometown????:( TD's sre elected to legislate. This parish pump attitude has this country ruined. This expectation that a TD has to do something is incorrect imo.

Fair point re the putting the national interest first but the economic recovery has largely been Dublin centric and confined to the large urban centres.. Cork,Galway.

The west of Ireland has been largely left behind when it has come to accruing the benefits of the improved economy.Rural depopulation is huge issue and creating a scenario whereby upwards on 60% of the population is located in a few large urban centres is hardly a healthy situation.(Not sure re that figure.. It is probably north of that percentage)

nuac

Kristopherus wrote: »

Whats this nonesense about doing stuff for your hometown????:( TD's sre elected to legislate. This parish pump attitude has this country ruined. This expectation that a TD has to do something is incorrect imo.

In 2007 and 2011 there was a huge FG canvass in Mayo to elect a Mayo Taoiseach. In round figures Endas vote grew from lower 5000s in 2002, 14000 in 2007 and 17000 in 2011. Four out of 5 TDs were FG in 2011.

FG canvassers were in overdrive painting a picture of plenty for the county, jobs for all etc etc. Hasn't happened.

godskitchen

Kristopherus wrote: »

Whats this nonesense about doing stuff for your hometown????:( TD's sre elected to legislate. This parish pump attitude has this country ruined. This expectation that a TD has to do something is incorrect imo.

I agree 100% that it should never be about the parish pump issues.

However, its a different story when you come to my door making promises about what you will do for local people.

To then not follow through in them is taking the piss out of me.