General Election 2016 - Mayo

josip

Is the only question now whether Mulherin will overtake Chambers?
Where will the transfers beneath them go?
RI -> FG ?
SF-> FF?

oscarBravo

mayo.mick wrote: »

Stephen Manning ejected from the count centre earlier..

I would have been shocked if he hadn't. Who did he accuse of corruption?

mayo.mick

Count 7: Count 7: Calleary (FF) +45 9,495; Chambers (FF) +47 8,354; Conway-Walsh (SF) +63 6,548; Cowley (Ind) +115 3,668, Farrington (Ren) +51 1,659; Moran (AAA) +38 664; Mulherin (FG) +51 8,182; Ring (FG) +46 11,613; Sheehan (GP) +15 680.

Moran, Sheehan and Farrington eliminated.

Count resumes in morning.

Cosmo Kramer

For anyone who hasn't seen it. Gob****e.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTpL60HG53Y

monument

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

For anyone who hasn't seen it. Gob****e.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTpL60HG53Y

He may or may not be a gob****e but the reasoning for ejecting him there seemed very weak.

seligehgit

So it appears to be too close to call for that final seat!

Call me Al

josip wrote: »

Is the only question now whether Mulherin will overtake Chambers?
Where will the transfers beneath them go?
RI -> FG ?
SF-> FF?

Mulherin might now that ReNua is eliminated as there's only 170 votes between them. But then Cowley's 3k+ votes will be distributed and I can't see Mulherin getting much of that. Cowleys first preferences all seemed to come from West Mayo, with only a few hundred fron Ballina, and Chambers will have done well in West Mayo for 2nd preferences. So yes its all down to Sf. Where are the tallies seeing those relevant 2nd preferences going I wonder?
Personally i just can't see them transferring to Mulherin over Chambers in great numbers. Ring maybe, but not Mulherin.
It'll be an interesting day.

Royal Legend

monument wrote: »

He may or may not be a gob****e but the reasoning for ejecting him there seemed very weak.

He has a point, Enda has not spoken to him in 5 years, Vincent Browne and Matt Cooper are in the same boat.

Sully

Royal Legend wrote: »

He has a point, Enda has not spoken to him in 5 years, Vincent Browne and Matt Cooper are in the same boat.

You sure about that? I seem to recall Kenny talking to Cooper in recent weeks..

Royal Legend

Sully wrote: »

You sure about that? I seem to recall Kenny talking to Cooper in recent weeks..

byes, but it was still 5 years

Dudda

Call me Al wrote: »

josip wrote: »

Is the only question now whether Mulherin will overtake Chambers?
Where will the transfers beneath them go?
RI -> FG ?
SF-> FF?

Mulherin might now that ReNua is eliminated as there's only 170 votes between them. But then Cowley's 3k+ votes will be distributed and I can't see Mulherin getting much of that. Cowleys first preferences all seemed to come from West Mayo, with only a few hundred fron Ballina, and Chambers will have done well in West Mayo for 2nd preferences. So yes its all down to Sf. Where are the tallies seeing those relevant 2nd preferences going I wonder?
Personally i just can't see them transferring to Mulherin over Chambers in great numbers. Ring maybe, but not Mulherin.
It'll be an interesting day.

Huge long shot but you also have the chance of SF getting a lot of Gerry's votes when he's eliminated and overtaking Lisa or Michelle. Very Unlikely but it is possible.

godskitchen

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

For anyone who hasn't seen it. Gob****e.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTpL60HG53Y

A gob****e he may be but he will take them lads to court, you can be 100% sure of that.

I laughed out loud when I heard someone in the video say "he won't sue any one!"

Oh he will, and he will follow it all the way until it finishes. Them 2 bouncers have a couple of letters on their way to them as we speak I would say.

It's a shame as the lads "were only doing their job" but they will be getting the brunt of it now for upsetting Stephen Manning, as he will see it.

Best of luck to them, I hope the people they were protecting stand by them but I doubt it.

Call me Al

Dudda wrote: »

Huge long shot but you also have the chance of SF getting a lot of Gerry's votes when he's eliminated and overtaking Lisa or Michelle. Very Unlikely but it is possible.

Conway Walsh would need to be getting most of his votes for that to happen i think.
I just cant see that happening looking at the FG tally of where his votes came from. But I agree, you never know.

seligehgit

Political anoraks are tipping Lisa Chambers to win the final seat, she has to be a warm favourite. Fair gap in the votes for Michelle Mulherin to claw back.

Cosmo Kramer

godskitchen wrote: »

A gob****e he may be but he will take them lads to court, you can be 100% sure of that.

I laughed out loud when I heard someone in the video say "he won't sue any one!"

Oh he will, and he will follow it all the way until it finishes. Them 2 bouncers have a couple of letters on their way to them as we speak I would say.

It's a shame as the lads "were only doing their job" but they will be getting the brunt of it now for upsetting Stephen Manning, as he will see it.

Best of luck to them, I hope the people they were protecting stand by them but I doubt it.

I actually thought, by bouncers standards, they were incredibly polite towards him. Another two would have just grabbed him and thrown him out the door.

godskitchen

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I actually thought, by bouncers standards, they were incredibly polite towards him. Another two would have just grabbed him and thrown him out the door.

A judge might agree with you but it won't stop him taking them to court and him serving them with papers. It won't cost him anything but time.

seligehgit

Sully wrote: »

You sure about that? I seem to recall Kenny talking to Cooper in recent weeks..

He was interviewed by Matt Cooper on The Last Word last Wednesday.

Call me Al

seligehgit wrote: »

Political anoraks are tipping Lisa Chambers to win the final seat, she has to be a warm favourite. Fair gap in the votes for Michelle Mulherin to claw back.

I wonder how much of a surplus Ring will have when he's elected? That could be the fly in the ointment for Chambers. Cowley will transfer fairly well to Ring after he is eliminated.

oscarBravo

godskitchen wrote: »

A judge might agree with you but it won't stop him taking them to court and him serving them with papers. It won't cost him anything but time.

...and when the judge rules against him, he'll try to arrest the judge.

godskitchen

oscarBravo wrote: »

...and when the judge rules against him, he'll try to arrest the judge.

And now you are under arrest for making that comment.

Dudda

Call me Al wrote: »

seligehgit wrote: »

Political anoraks are tipping Lisa Chambers to win the final seat, she has to be a warm favourite. Fair gap in the votes for Michelle Mulherin to claw back.

I wonder how much of a surplus Ring will have when he's elected? That could be the fly in the ointment for Chambers. Cowley will transfer fairly well to Ring after he is eliminated.

Add your reply here.
Chambers polled better than Mulhern in West Mayo where Gerry had most his votes. I do think now Chambers will get in when earlier I thought it would be Mulhern. It's going to be really close. Could be a recount on Monday!

Cosmo Kramer

Apparently Cowley's transfers have gone very poorly for Mulherin. Chambers now a big favourite to get elected. Assuming RCW hasn't overtaken Mulherin it will come down to her transfers which are likely to get Chambers home.

UPDATE: RCW gone. Chambers moves 600 clear of Mulherin.

Call me Al

Rcw has been eliminated. I can't see any other result than Chambers being returned at this stage. She might even come in ahead of her running mate.

naughto

Looks like chambers will take the last seat

Its appears that Kenny sending out letters the day before the election ensuring that people vote him #1 and his whingers comment has cost Michelle her seat.

He got too greedy they could of made it three FG in Mayo if he wasn't his usual cowardly self. He has let Dublin Fine Gael run the whole campaign.

naughto

I got one of those letters straight in to the fire it went

naughto

naughto wrote: »

I got one of those letters straight in to the fire it went

I think you will see a big backlash against him and unfairly his family due to not delivering anything for Mayo when he had the chance. His chance is now over.

nuac

Deleted User wrote: »

Its appears that Kenny sending out letters the day before the election ensuring that people vote him #1 and his whingers comment has cost Michelle her seat.

He got too greedy they could of made it three FG in Mayo if he wasn't his usual cowardly self.

I do not agree that Kenny is a coward. It takes courage for anyone to stand for DÉ,

The "whinger" remark was out of character. Guy was tired, and lost the head. Should have been withdrawn immediately. Handlers' advice made it worse.

FG vote management in Mayo is normally good, but they had less votes to manage this time.

FF seem to have managed their two candidate's votes much better.

The fact that their candidates were younger helped.

Michelle Mulherin deserved credit ( and votes ) for turning up to VB last week. She carried the FG flag bravely. No Taoiseach should be obliged to attend such shows, some other heavy hitters in Mayo FG should have been there, such as Ml Ring and Sen Paddy Bourke, Cathaoirleach of Seanad Éireann

Kristopherus

Deleted User wrote: »

Its appears that Kenny sending out letters the day before the election ensuring that people vote him #1 and his whingers comment has cost Michelle her seat.

He got too greedy they could of made it three FG in Mayo if he wasn't his usual cowardly self. He has let Dublin Fine Gael run the whole campaign.

Lisa Chambers sent those letters out as well. Was she greedy????

naughto

Kristopherus wrote: »

Lisa Chambers sent those letters out as well. Was she greedy????

I don't remember here calling us whingers