Fianna Fail & Fianna Gael

markwho

There's been news floating about with regards to fianna gael not saying they wouldn't join up with fianna fail if push came to shove.

I was just wondering would this not work out as totally beneficial to fianna gael in every imaginable way. A coalition could be the final death knell for fianna fail being the junior party in government similar to what fianna gael did to labour this time round and what fianna fail did to the greens the previous time around. They could literally use them as a final scape goat.

Or was the effect of being a junior party for labour and the greens more because those two parties had very little experience in government compared to the more experienced parties rather than the sole fact of being a junior party.

johnnyskeleton

Well Micheal Martin has ruled out being a junior partner in coalition for the reasons youve identified.

However, when the scent of power comes their way it will be interesting to see what they do.

Dont forget that people didnt stop voting for the Greens or Labour because they were a junior partner - they stopped voting for them because they percieved that those parties didnt stick by their principles. FF and FG are similar enough to be able to meld successfully.

Dont forget as well that FF enter government then pull the plug at an opportune time e.g. abortion, citing principle, and do better in the snap election as a result.

Both parties risk a lot going into power with each other, but on the other hand the viable alternatives are few.

oscarBravo

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Dont forget that people didnt stop voting for the Greens or Labour because they were a junior partner - they stopped voting for them because they percieved that those parties didnt stick by their principles.

I just don't get that.

If you vote for a smaller party, be it Green or Labour or whomever, you know the only way they'll get to implement any of their policies is to be in government, and the only way they'll get to be in government is as a junior partner in coalition.

Why someone would vote for a party under those circumstances, and then feel betrayed when that party doesn't get to dictate 100% of the government's policy, is completely beyond me.

I'm seeing an awful lot of anger informing political campaigning recently. I've said it before: very few people can truthfully claim to make their most rational decisions when they're seething with anger.

Case in point: protesters yelling at Enda Kenny to get out of Wicklow. I mean, seriously: who the **** do they think they are? I can't stand Gerry Adams or pretty much any single thing he stands for, but am I going to yell at him to get out of Mayo? Am I hell. I don't like the man, but I don't get to decide where he's allowed to go.

gandalf

TBH if the numbers stack up then I can see FG & FF going into a coalition. If the alternative is a line up of the "Slab Murphy" Party, the AAA and an assorted mix of crazy independents then I believe they will do business with FF dumping MM as leader.

johnnyskeleton

gandalf wrote: »

TBH if the numbers stack up then I can see FG & FF going into a coalition. If the alternative is a line up of the "Slab Murphy" Party, the AAA and an assorted mix of crazy independents then I believe they will do business with FF dumping MM as leader.

A likely outcome, as matters stand appears and based on Paddy Power's odds, to be:

FG 55 seats
FF 35 seats
SF 26 seats
Lab 10 seats
Others 32

The others will possibly include 1 Green, 1/2 Renua, 3 Social Democrat, 4-6 AAA/PBP and 2/3 Shane Ross types, Maureen O'Sullivan, Lowry and Wallace.

So FG and FF in coalition would have 90 seats with 79 needed for a majority. This would give them a stable majority.

FG and Lab will have 66 seats, needing another 13. It would not be easy for them to select these as a lot of the independents either wouldn't go into government with FG and Lab (e.g. AAA) or FG and Lab wouldn't go into government with them (e.g. Lowry). Any deal would be based on 13 independents or possibly a weird rainbow coalition of SD, Shane Ross, Eamon Ryan, Renua etc which I'm not sure would work.

FF, SF and Lab would have 71 seats, so would still need another 8 for a majority. However, the AAA, SD, Maureen O'Sullivan type of independents may be willing and more stable than 8 me feiners.

So if FG or FF were to seek to enter government without each other, they would need a large number of independents. This would be quite unstable.

No government would be possible without FG or FF, so at least one of them has to be in power.

So.....as matters stand we are heading towards FF and FG. Ironically, if this puts people off voting for FG or FF, the effect of that will be to make it even more certain.

FG would have to drop below 45-50 seats, and FF below 30 to put them out of the running for a coalition (maybe with one or two independents). I can't see either party's support dropping that low between now and Feb barring some earth shattering event.

A swing from FG to FF wouldn't make much difference. If FF had 56 seats and FG 35, with the other parties staying the same, their options would be the same as FGs are now. In that regard, the parties are interchangeable, and I don't see FF entering government with SF anymore than I see FG doing so i.e. they won't if they have any other alternative.

Only way I can see of this not happening is if independent voters move back towards FG giving them close to a majority with maybe Labour tacked on or increasing their seats as well. This is similar to what happened in 2007 when (in my opinion) people got spooked in the week or two before the election and support for FF went from 36% back up to 41% on the day.

gandalf

Labour are not going to get 10 seats, they will scrape around 5 I reckon.

FF are definitely going to get a bounce in their traditional strongholds. FG is hard to tell tbh. I think they will be punished in Urban areas but will hold steady in the rural areas. The really interesting aspect is how will the new groupings do.

Renua have 3 TD's and I think they will be lucky to hold onto them. The Social Democrats will probably gain a few seats. The Independent Alliance I am not convinced about. They will probably hold parity. Barring the tainted Lowry and the Healy-Rae(s) I don't see any more independents being in the stable of doing business with FG.

I don't see the AAA increasing from what they have. SF well I have no idea how they are going to do. I think a lot of damage has been done to their transfer ability with the middle of the road voter with the Slab Murphy affair and the fact they want to abolished the SCC during very visible and heightened gang activity.

Ren2k7

gandalf wrote: »

SF well I have no idea how they are going to do. I think a lot of damage has been done to their transfer ability with the middle of the road voter with the Slab Murphy affair and the fact they want to abolished the SCC during very visible and heightened gang activity.

SF have always been transfer toxic and TBH most people in Ireland have made up their minds on the party by now. The older generation, by and large, will never support SF thanks to a lifetime of indoctrination by Section 31 media while the younger generation, free to make up their own minds probably won't care about such stories. Any "issues" about Slab or the SCC is going to have a fairly minimal impact on the SF.

As for FF and FG its pretty obvious to anyone and everyone that they will form a (not so) grand coalition, all in the "national interest" of course.

Edit: And I'd also share 'oscarBravos' sentiments on water protesters behaving like fascists towards Enda Kenny in Wicklow. This is a Republic and he has as much right to travel this country as any other citizen. Disgusting behaviour by a shower of yobs.

It's interesting how despite Enda and Gerry's sometimes hostile rhetoric towards one another in the Dáil, especially surrounding water charges, outside of politics and debates they actually are quite amicable and pleasant towards each other, like last week when they crossed paths on the campaign trail and shook hands. It's a shame ordinary political supporters from all sides couldn't behave in a similar manner towards their fellow Irishman.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote:

As for FF and FG itsy pretty obvious to anyone and everyone that they will form a (not so) grand coalition, all in the "national interest" of course.

Kenny (when pressed) ruled that out last night and Martin has already said no to being the junior party.

If the election goes as the polls suggest there simply isn't a government possible other than FF/FG. So either they go back on those positions or we keep voting until we get a different result.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

Kenny (when pressed) ruled that out last night and Martin has already said no to being the junior party.

If the election goes as the polls suggest there simply isn't a government possible other than FF/FG. So either they go back on those positions or we keep voting until we get a different result.

Yeah, that's just optics. Kenny would ideally prefer Labour as a coalition coalition partner but that's not going to happen. He'll do a deal with whoever is closest to his political outlook. Don't forget in 2007 Kenny looked for support from SF after all. He's not an ideologue, he's a pragmatist. Martin OTOH won't be able to resist the lure of the trough and ministerial salary so that will be enough to get the FFers to the cabinet table.

gandalf

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It's a shame ordinary political supporters from all sides couldn't behave in a similar manner towards their fellow Irishman.

I wouldn't take peoples attitudes on boards as an indicator about how they would behave with you if they met you face to face.

As a moderator on boards for years I have a lot of heated discussions with people online but when you met them at a beers they turned out to be cool and typically you laughed off your differences.

Text only online forums tend to extract the extremes out in all people and amplify any differences between them.

gandalf

Ren2k7 wrote: »

SF have always been transfer toxic and TBH most people in Ireland have made up their minds on the party by now. The older generation, by and large, will never support SF thanks to a lifetime of indoctrination by Section 31 media while the younger generation, free to make up their own minds probably won't care about such stories. Any "issues" about Slab or the SCC is going to have a fairly minimal impact on the SF.

I don't know. I am in the older generation bracket as I am in my 40's now. I certainly would not consider myself indoctrinated at all, I would counter that I am acutely aware of the crimes carried out by the PIRA and the incestuously nearly schizophrenically close relationship they have with SF.

I am aware of a lot of people in the younger generations who have similar doubts about SF that I do and given they haven't been exposed to the same "stories" you elude to you would have to agree that they are using their ability to make a free decision wisely.

Of course SF could address some of the questions about them by clearing out the old guard who have blood on their hands directly or at best by association.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Yeah, that's just optics. Kenny would ideally prefer Labour as a coalition coalition partner but that's not going to happen. He'll do a deal with whoever is closest to his political outlook. Don't forget in 2007 Kenny looked for support from SF after all. He's not an ideologue, he's a pragmatist. Martin OTOH won't be able to resist the lure of the trough and ministerial salary so that will be enough to get the FFers to the cabinet table.

No he didn't.

Ren2k7

gandalf wrote: »

I wouldn't take peoples attitudes on boards as an indicator about how they would behave with you if they met you face to face.

As a moderator on boards for years I have a lot of heated discussions with people online but when you met them at a beers they turned out to be cool and typically you laughed off your differences.

Text only online forums tend to extract the extremes out in all people and amplify any differences between them.

TBH the most extreme views tend to be voiced by FFGLAB supporters who hold pretty obnoxious opinions about SF, Republicans and Northerners in general. Anyone remember supposed 32 county republican Micheal Martin blasting Adams for "coming down here" during the last election? Gaelers especially despise any notion of people from the Six Counties taking an involvement in "Southern" affairs. While I'd agree with a lot of FG's positions it's their disgusting attitude towards the north and their yobbish supporters that turns me off completely casting a vote for FG.

gandalf wrote: »

I don't know. I am in the older generation bracket as I am in my 40's now. I certainly would not consider myself indoctrinated at all, I would counter that I am acutely aware of the crimes carried out by the PIRA and the incestuously nearly schizophrenically close relationship they have with SF.

I am aware of a lot of people in the younger generations who have similar doubts about SF that I do and given they haven't been exposed to the same "stories" you elude to you would have to agree that they are using their ability to make a free decision wisely.

Of course SF could address some of the questions about them by clearing out the old guard who have blood on their hands directly or at best by association.

I'd be in the younger bracket and many who I'd know would be at the very least sympathetic towards SF. There's a clear generational divide WRT Sinn Fein, many younger folk now voting for the first time being born after the first IRA ceasefire. It's posts like yours and the usual boring rubbish of "blood on their hands" that turns many away from FG. Last night Enda tried once again to have a pop at Adams using the same language and got booed by the audience. People simply don't want to hear such crap any more, they want politicians to focus on real issues. The Troubles are in the past, time to move on. After all the country has already moved on from FF and FG's own rather unsavoury connection to paramilitarism from decades ago. And not forgetting many current Labourite's having connections to the Officials.

First Up wrote: »

No he didn't.

Yes he did. Kenny courted everyone after the 2007 election, as did De Bert. And you can be sure Kenny will be making overtures to SF after this election has concluded if efforts to form a FG/FF coalition prove fruitless. Kenny isn't a fundamentalist like most of his party's grassroots.

blackwhite

oscarBravo wrote: »

I just don't get that.

If you vote for a smaller party, be it Green or Labour or whomever, you know the only way they'll get to implement any of their policies is to be in government, and the only way they'll get to be in government is as a junior partner in coalition.

Why someone would vote for a party under those circumstances, and then feel betrayed when that party doesn't get to dictate 100% of the government's policy, is completely beyond me.

I'm seeing an awful lot of anger informing political campaigning recently. I've said it before: very few people can truthfully claim to make their most rational decisions when they're seething with anger.

Case in point: protesters yelling at Enda Kenny to get out of Wicklow. I mean, seriously: who the **** do they think they are? I can't stand Gerry Adams or pretty much any single thing he stands for, but am I going to yell at him to get out of Mayo? Am I hell. I don't like the man, but I don't get to decide where he's allowed to go.

You make the mistake of assuming that these people are rational, or actually apply even a smidgen of critical thought to their views.
They gravitate to whichever politicians tell them that they are responsible for nothing and entitled to everything - Gilmore did it in 2011 and that's why Labour had their best election in recent memory.
Because Labour couldn't meet these lofty expectations of loads of free stuff at no cost, now they are "traitors" and must be punished.

A lot of responsibility for the worst behaviour of these people lies at the door of some of the far-left politicians who are doing their best to fan the flames of anger just to exploit it.
Murphy, RBB, Coppinger and their ilk know that very few people would see their policies/proposals as reasonable if they actually applied some critical analysis to them, hence they need to keep their target support as angry and riled up as possible so they don't actually stop and think!

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote:

Yes he did. Kenny courted everyone after the 2007 election, as did De Bert. And you can be sure Kenny will be making overtures to SF after this election has concluded if efforts to form a FG/FF coalition prove fruitless. Kenny isn't a fundamentalist like most of his party's grassroots.

No he didn't. In the post election fun and games he specifically ruled out talking to FF and SF

gandalf

Ren2k7 wrote: »

TBH the most extreme views tend to be voiced by FFGLAB supporters who hold pretty obnoxious opinions about SF, Republicans and Northerners in general. Anyone remember supposed 32 county republican Micheal Martin blasting Adams for "coming down here" during the last election? Gaelers especially despise any notion of people from the Six Counties taking an involvement in "Southern" affairs. While I'd agree with a lot of FG's positions it's their disgusting attitude towards the north and their yobbish supporters that turns me off completely casting a vote for FG.

From my perspective Northern Ireland needs to sort it's own **** out before there is any thought about any sort of reunion. They are on the path but they are still a fair distance away from being in a position to join the Republic.

I think there is a very valid fear that having SF in power especially with Adams at the helm will mean there is too much of a focus on NI politics.

GA on occasions has also been shown to have a very light and naive grasp of the political reality here in the South. TBH I think he was parachuted in as a Republican Star Candidate into Louth.

I'd be in the younger bracket and many who I'd know would be at the very least sympathetic towards SF. There's a clear generational divide WRT Sinn Fein, many younger folk now voting for the first time being born after the first IRA ceasefire. It's posts like yours and the usual boring rubbish of "blood on their hands" that turns many away from FG. Last night Enda tried once again to have a pop at Adams using the same language and got booed by the audience. People simply don't want to hear such crap any more, they want politicians to focus on real issues. The Troubles are in the past, time to move on. After all the country has already moved on from FF and FG's own rather unsavoury connection to paramilitarism from decades ago. And not forgetting many current Labourite's having connections to the Officials.

Last election I did vote for FG purely from a reform perspective and they failed miserably. I would have been a Labour supporter before that but I do believe they have lost touch with reality.

To have concerns that a Political party has senior members who have blood on their hands is not a FG trait only. I would suggest that it is a trait of any citizen who would be prudent about who is governing them. Comparing the Provos to the Officials is like comparing a Premier League Terrorist outfit to a Vauxhall Conference Terrorist one. I also have my doubts about who is actually in charge of SF with the whole public defense of Tomas Murphy which from a political point of view was stupid and naive. It looks like they were ordered to take that stance which has been extremely politically damaging to them.

Yes he did. Kenny courted everyone after the 2007 election, as did De Bert. And you can be sure Kenny will be making overtures to SF after this election has concluded if efforts to form a FG/FF coalition prove fruitless. Kenny isn't a fundamentalist like most of his party's grassroots.

FG won't go into Government with SF because it would split the party. FF won't go into Government with SF because SF are eating into their support and they would not want to do anything to give them more traction. If either party is in a position like this there is a far higher chance of a FG/FF Coalition that either of those parties going into Coalition with SF.

golfwallah

True, most people vote for the parties that align most with their own individual self-interest. Under our multi-seat PR system, it is not possible to choose from the choice set of candidates in a constituency by separating out National from Local and Personal interests. So voters base their voting decision on a blend of interests, that is those who aren’t loyal to any particular party.

This makes our system very prone to “auction politics”, where promises can be made with little regard to who will pay for them. From my observation, the German system of separate votes for Constituency and National Candidates gives voters the opportunity to choose a more balanced way of running the country by consideration both sides of the equation between Local (benefits received) and National (how they will be paid for) issues.

The Constitutional Convention convened under the outgoing FG/Labour coalition considered the German and other Models as possible options for electoral reform – but, on mature reflection, chose a bit of tinkering around constituency boundaries and seat numbers.

So, I guess auction politics is our "business as usual" and preferred option over any alternative that would force politicians to focus voter attention on choosing between different mixes for costs and benefits.

Ren2k7

gandalf wrote: »

From my perspective Northern Ireland needs to sort it's own **** out before there is any thought about any sort of reunion. They are on the path but they are still a fair distance away from being in a position to join the Republic.

It's more like the south needs to sort itself out before reunification can happen. The economy here is still in a fragile state thanks to years of FF misrule. Let's also remember that any United Ireland wouldn't be NI being bolted on to the Republic but the creation of an entirely new state.

gandalf wrote: »

I think there is a very valid fear that having SF in power especially with Adams at the helm will mean there is too much of a focus on NI politics.

And? NI is part of Ireland, why shouldn't the Govt get more actively involved in the affairs of the North? Belfast and Derry should be just as much the concern of the Irish government as Ballina and Dundalk. FG may not care about the Six Counties but that doesn't mean the Irish people as a whole don't care.

gandalf wrote: »

GA on occasions has also been shown to have a very light and naive grasp of the political reality here in the South. TBH I think he was parachuted in as a Republican Star Candidate into Louth.

He's shown himself to have a strong grasp of issues facing the Republic, certainly far more competent and effective in the Dáil during Leaders Questions than the likes of Micheal Martin.

gandalf wrote: »

Last election I did vote for FG purely from a reform perspective and they failed miserably. I would have been a Labour supporter before that but I do believe they have lost touch with reality.

It's funny how people complain of the whiff of corditte about SF but say nothing of the Stickie takeover of Labour. Have we all forgotten that Gilmore and Rabbitte were both OSF cadres with links to the (O)IRA? But then, the Officials were the "good" IRA. :rolleyes:

gandalf wrote: »

To have concerns that a Political party has senior members who have blood on their hands is not a FG trait only. I would suggest that it is a trait of any citizen who would be prudent about who is governing them. Comparing the Provos to the Officials is like comparing a Premier League Terrorist outfit to a Vauxhall Conference Terrorist one. I also have my doubts about who is actually in charge of SF with the whole public defense of Tomas Murphy which from a political point of view was stupid and naive. It looks like they were ordered to take that stance which has been extremely politically damaging to them.

The Official's may have been a flop who failed to defend the Irish community in the North from British death squads but they still carried out bombings and killings for quite a number of years. This is what the OIRA did in Aldershot, a bombing lauded by a future Sunday Independent editor that killed 7 people:



And not forgetting a current Labour junior minister married to a former OIRA volunteer (or terrorist in FG speak) convicted of murder. If people are going to criticise the Shinners for supposed links to "terrorism" then at least be consistent.

gandalf wrote: »

FG won't go into Government with SF because it would split the party. FF won't go into Government with SF because SF are eating into their support and they would not want to do anything to give them more traction. If either party is in a position like this there is a far higher chance of a FG/FF Coalition that either of those parties going into Coalition with SF.

Look, Enda Kenny and Michael Martin are first and foremost political opportunists who will go into government with anyone if they think it's in their best interests. All that matters is becoming Taoiseach.

Mr.Micro

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Look, Enda Kenny and Michael Martin are first and foremost political opportunists who will go into government with anyone if they think it's in their best interests. All that matters is becoming Taoiseach.

Not so sure about Enda, but Martin would go in with anyone, so long as he is Taoiseach.

golfball37

First Up wrote: »

No he didn't. In the post election fun and games he specifically ruled out talking to FF and SF

Correct in 2007 Frank Flannery was fired by Enda for attempting to fly the SF coalition kite.

Fleawuss

There will be no FF FG coalition. FG will try to cobble together a majority and govern until next Budget and then run to the country hoping to wipe out a pile of independents. They will reckon if they can keep FF out of power for another 4-5 years it might be a death blow to them with pressure from SF mounting. Never underestimate the promotion of the party's interest by the party hack.
FF will be very anxious to do well in this election. If they get into the high 30's then they can dig in, ditch MM and rebuild for their next assault on power. These people think a bit different to the dog in the street.

First Up

golfball37 wrote: »

Correct in 2007 Frank Flannery was fired by Enda for attempting to fly the SF coalition kite.

It was before the 2009 European and local elections.

tayto lover

Two sides of the same coin with the same policies.
How could they not get on?

AlanG

Fleawuss wrote: »

There will be no FF FG coalition. FG will try to cobble together a majority and govern until next Budget and then run to the country hoping to wipe out a pile of independents.

Totally agree. A FF - FG coalition would almost guarantee SF as the largest party after the next election - especially if they ditch Gerry in the mean time. Both FG and FF know this.

FG would benefit greatly from a second election as people who may say they don't see a recovery will get very scared if we have a few months of instability and a possible Brexit on the horizon. Many of the protest voters would come back from independents and go back to the larger parties.

Duiske

Ren2k7 wrote: »

And not forgetting a current Labour junior minister married to a former OIRA volunteer (or terrorist in FG speak) convicted of murder. If people are going to criticise the Shinners for supposed links to "terrorism" then at least be consistent.

Perhaps you just forgot to add this, but its only fair to point out that the conviction was overturned on appeal, with a judge stating there was "no admissible evidence against him of any activity in the preparation or commission of a crime of violence, or the murder".

First Up

AlanG wrote: »

Totally agree. A FF - FG coalition would almost guarantee SF as the largest party after the next election - especially if they ditch Gerry in the mean time. Both FG and FF know this.

FG would benefit greatly from a second election as people who may say they don't see a recovery will get very scared if we have a few months of instability and a possible Brexit on the horizon. Many of the protest voters would come back from independents and go back to the larger parties.

Disagree about SF's prospects. Their blend of militant republicanism, ambivalence to the law and populist economics appeals to a specific and limited demographic and they are transfer toxic to everyone else. They are competing with independents for many "protest" seats.

Agree about a second election and that is a more likely next step than a FG/FF coalition. However, if a second election produced another stalemate, expect some shift in positions.

Ren2k7

Duiske wrote: »

Perhaps you just forgot to add this, but its only fair to point out that the conviction was overturned on appeal, with a judge stating there was "no admissible evidence against him of any activity in the preparation or commission of a crime of violence, or the murder".

It was overturned on a technicality. I wonder would you be so forgiving if Slab's conviction was overturned. FFS Gerry has never even been convicted in the South and yet you have wannabee special branch detectives here accusing him of being a terrorist, hands dripping with blood, etc. The level of hypocrisy and shameless two facedness by the establishment parties is truly nauseating.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

Disagree about SF's prospects. Their blend of militant republicanism, ambivalence to the law and populist economics appeals to a specific and limited demographic and they are transfer toxic to everyone else. They are competing with independents for many "protest" seats.

Agree about a second election and that is a more likely next step than a FG/FF coalition. However, if a second election produced another stalemate, expect some shift in positions.

It's quite enjoyable seeing SF being written off considering how much they've come along in the past few years. Going from minor party in the North to dominant Irish party in the Executive has been extraordinary. SF will too enter government in the South, this much is certain. And the head popping by the D4 elites will be EPIC.

oscarBravo

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It's funny how people complain of the whiff of corditte about SF but say nothing of the Stickie takeover of Labour. Have we all forgotten that Gilmore and Rabbitte were both OSF cadres with links to the (O)IRA? But then, the Officials were the "good" IRA. :rolleyes:

For me at least, it's a question of how strongly the whiff of cordite lingers.

When Gilmore and Rabbitte collect convicted Garda killers from prison, condemn the arrest of prominent republicans, and call for the abolition of the SCC during a wave of gangland violence, the comparison might be more interesting.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote: »

SF will too enter government in the South, this much is certain. And the head popping by the D4 elites will be EPIC.

Exactly not the way to lure potential voters.

Good man.

Ren2k7

oscarBravo wrote: »

For me at least, it's a question of how strongly the whiff of cordite lingers.

When Gilmore and Rabbitte collect convicted Garda killers from prison, condemn the arrest of prominent republicans, and call for the abolition of the SCC during a wave of gangland violence, the comparison might be more interesting.

SF did what had to be done to defend the Irish people in NI from British death squads. What did your lot do during the anti-Irish pogroms of the 60's/70's? Oh that's right, authorised Garda brutality against alleged Republicans, shut down any investigation into the Dublin and Monaghan Bombings and sided with the Brits. FGLAB have a lot to answer for, especially the repeated claims of British agents sitting at the Irish cabinet table. Traitors doesn't come close to describing the Gaelers and their Stickie mudguards.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

Exactly not the way to lure potential voters.

Good man.

Most ordinary folk would be delighted to see the Deefers go wild with impotent fury in the event of a SF victory.

oscarBravo

Ren2k7 wrote: »

SF did what had to be done to defend the Irish people in NI from British death squads. What did your lot do during the anti-Irish pogroms of the 60's/70's? Oh that's right, authorised Garda brutality against alleged Republicans, shut down any investigation into the Dublin and Monaghan Bombings and sided with the Brits. FGLAB have a lot to answer for, especially the repeated claims of British agents sitting at the Irish cabinet table. Traitors doesn't come close to describing the Gaelers and their Stickie mudguards.

My lot??

It is hard to distance the party from that whiff all the same, isn't it?

Ren2k7

oscarBravo wrote: »

My lot??

It is hard to distance the party from that whiff all the same, isn't it?

For most people it isn't an issue. All the main parties have the lingering after-smell of corditte following them from past affiliations with "terror" groups. SF is here to stay and people need to start getting used to this.

gandalf

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Most ordinary folk would be delighted to see the Deefers go wild with impotent fury in the event of a SF victory.

I think you are overestimating SF's popularity with the average punter in Ireland. Some would say its bordering on deluded!

TripleC

Hmmmm

I am glad to see some realistic views on the likelihood of an FG/FF Coalition.....finally!

The idea is really being pushed by The Independent. However, given their glaringly obvious anti-FG and pro-FF stance in this election its not difficult to see why they would keep floating the idea.

There does seem to be some rather delusional people out there though. There are usually three reasons given as to why such a Coalition is achievable.

1. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are exactly the same.

2. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail coalescing would enable the Left to finally unite on the Opposition benches and usher in a Left wing Government.

3. The bookies rate it as the most likely outcome.

To refute those points in order:

1. FG and FF aren't actually that similar. To start with FF, clerical Social policies aside, they have always been an avowedly tax and spend, pro-Trade Union, big state (anti-free market) fiscally left wing party. In contrast, FG is much closer to the Classical fiscally Conservative pro-business parties encountered on Continental Europe. Additionally, since the 60s at least FG has partly adopted Liberal (in an Irish context) Social policies. On some of these issues they have converged in recent years, such as on Social issues. But arguably however, on Economic matters they have moved further apart, such as Economic issues.

2. Literally, why would FG and FF form a coalition just to aid the future prospects of the Left Wing. There is an astonishing degree of of disingenuous argument on the part of Left Wingers on this point.

3. The bookies aren't always right. For example for much of the 2002-2007 period a FF-Labour Government was the bookies favorite.

The conclusive aspect, which I am glad some posters here have finally publicized is the simmering mutual antipathy which exists within each party towards the other. You can guarantee that an FG-FF Coalition would result in a mass walkout of members followed by a mass desertion by a large portion of voters at the next election.

First Up

TripleC wrote:

The conclusive aspect, which I am glad some posters here have finally publicized is the simmering mutual antipathy which exists within each party towards the other. You can guarantee that an FG-FF Coalition would result in a mass walkout of members followed by a mass desertion by a large portion of voters at the next election.

Seeing as FG and FF were on opposite sides in the civil war and that families have been polarised over it ever since, it is a bit rich to talk about "simmering mutual antipathy" as if it was some recent revelation.

If people are prepared to swallow SF/IRA's recent bloody past with the actors still on the stage, the events of almost 100 years ago can surely be put aside when we are talking about peoples' great granparents. I doubt anyone under 60 gives a shoot - and not many older.

The centre ground of both parties would be comfortable enough with each other on many issues. FG are generally more socially conservative, while FF are "greener" in political terms. However on issues like the economy, agriculture, education, health, social welfare and the wider ideologies around the balance between the State and the private sector, the two parties are closer than any others.

A merger may be some way off but a coalition is perfectly feasible. If it drives some FG into exile (or Renua) and some FF into Sinn Fein, so be it. Our politics have been shaped by the past long enough.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

If people are prepared to swallow SF/IRA's

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of? I've looked up the register of Irish parties and see no such party listed. I wonder if Labour/OIRA and FG/Blueshirt are on the list as well........

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote: »

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of?

Thought you would have been able to find it, seeing as it is all over this thread and several others.

Coillte_Bhoy

Ren2k7 wrote: »

What is this "SF/IRA" you speak of? I've looked up the register of Irish parties and see no such party listed. I wonder if Labour/OIRA and FG/Blueshirt are on the list as well........

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

golfball37

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

3 of the last 5 Labour leaders certainly are not holier than thou in the private army sense.

BOHtox

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It's quite enjoyable seeing SF being written off considering how much they've come along in the past few years. Going from minor party in the North to dominant Irish party in the Executive has been extraordinary. SF will too enter government in the South, this much is certain. And the head popping by the D4 elites will be EPIC.

What exactly is your problem with people from Dublin 4? And why are you so concerned with getting one over on them as opposed to voting for the best interests of the country? The idea that everyone from Dublin 4 is a self-righteous snob is a lazy stereotype. A stereotype that I believed myself having worked in town from a young age before getting a new job around Dublin 4.

If you take a single person who earns €100,000, he will pay 40% of that net in tax. He gives €40,000 to the exchequer between PRSI, USC, Income Tax etc.

The same person on €20,000 takes home €18,100. He pays less than €2,000 to the exchequer.

So person A pays 20 times more tax. To paraphrase from The West Wing "I don’t get 20 more votes on election day, the fire department doesn't come to my house 20 times faster, and the water doesn't come out of my faucet 20 times hotter."


This is not propaganda, just cold, hard facts

gandalf

golfball37 wrote: »

3 of the last 5 Labour leaders certainly are not holier than thou in the private army sense.

Compared to Gerry Adams they are feckin saints!

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

Thought you would have been able to find it, seeing as it is all over this thread and several others.

There's no such entity called "SF/IRA". Anyone who uses it is a fool.

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Are the OIRA and Blueshirts still in existence? Have present members of the FG or Labour leaderships been involved with illegal armies recetnly?

The OIRA is still in existance and the fascist Blueshirts merged into FG. And a current minister of state is married to a man convicted of murdering another person while he was in the OIRA.

BOHtox wrote: »

What exactly is your problem with people from Dublin 4?

It's not a geographic term. Referring to someone as a "D4 elite" or "Deefer" is just like calling someone a Tory if in Britain or a Teahadist in the US. A Deefer can be from any part of Ireland as refers to someone who is staunchly right wing, typically a FG voter, hates Northerners, hates "Shinners", hates Republicans and often quite of an Anglophile to the point of wanting Ireland to rejoin either the Commonwealth or even the UK itself.

BOHtox wrote: »

And why are you so concerned with getting one over on them as opposed to voting for the best interests of the country?

Your "best interests of the country" are probably quite different from mine.

BOHtox wrote: »

The idea that everyone from Dublin 4 is a self-righteous snob is a lazy stereotype. A stereotype that I believed myself having worked in town from a young age before getting a new job around Dublin 4.

See above.

BOHtox wrote: »

If you take a single person who earns €100,000, he will pay 40% of that net in tax. He gives €40,000 to the exchequer between PRSI, USC, Income Tax etc.

The same person on €20,000 takes home €18,100. He pays less than €2,000 to the exchequer.

So person A pays 20 times more tax. To paraphrase from The West Wing "I don’t get 20 more votes on election day, the fire department doesn't come to my house 20 times faster, and the water doesn't come out of my faucet 20 times hotter."


This is not propaganda, just cold, hard facts

What relevance does any of this have?

Ren2k7

gandalf wrote: »

Compared to Gerry Adams they are feckin saints!

Do you know something about Gerry Adams' past that the rest of us don't know about? If so you should pass on your info to the Gardai. I hear they've been trying to nail Adams on membership of some illegal organisation for some years now but have been unlucky so far.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote:

Do you know something about Gerry Adams' past that the rest of us don't know about? If so you should pass on your info to the Gardai. I hear they've been trying to nail Adams on membership of some illegal organisation for some years now but have been unlucky so far.

Stop being ridiculous.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

Stop being ridiculous.

You too? Wow, the Guards will have Adams banged up by the end of the week if you and Gandalf go and provide the Gardai with information on Adams involvement in "criminality".

Not that defending your community and people is a crime of course.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote:

Not that defending your community and people is a crime of course.

But you still deny a link between SF and IRA?

Quite.

Ren2k7

First Up wrote: »

But you still deny a link between SF and IRA?

Quite.

When have I ever denied a link between SF and the IRA? Do you believe the Irish community were wrong to take up arms to defend themselves from British backed death squads? That's what we in the South did but the Gaelers hypocrites mantra is "do as I say, not as I do".....



IRA "terrorist" and gunrunner who was directing armed operations against Crown Forces in the North right up until his death. Strangely his portrait hangs on the wall of the FG leaders office.

gandalf

Lol typical Slab Fein behaviour. Hijacking and derailing the thread.

First Up

Ren2k7 wrote:

Do you believe the Irish community were wrong to take up arms to defend themselves from British backed death squads?

So thats what they were doing in Birmingham, Warrington, Guildford, Canary Wharf, Regents Park.....