Fianna Fail & Fianna Gael

K-9

Mod:

Er, back on topic please, FF & FG thank you.

irishash

I saw it mentioned in one post, but overall there has been very little mention of what is possibly the strongest reason there will not be a FF/FG coalition.

For the past 5 years and before that even, the party line from FG is that FF ruined the country. They had the dinners with the bankers, had the tents at Galway, facilitated the property bubble, so on and on and on……

The election slogan from FG so far this campaign is “Let keep the recovery going” but during the debates it might as well have been “Don’t ever let these feckers in again as they will screw it up all over again. NEVER FORGET!!!”

And so after Friday the 26th, it is more than likely that the 2 biggest parties in the state will once again be FF and FG (or possibly SF and FG). Opinion coming from most commentators is no one party will have a majority and the only possible combination of 2 parties to have a comfortable majority is FF/FG.  Lots of people have said this will happen, despite what the parties have said themselves. The bookies think it will happen. Posters on here think it will happen.

But I don’t think it will for this reason. Because if this coalition comes to be, no voter of FG will forgive that decision come the election after this one. The FG vote would collapse and the party would be decimated. FF would survive, perhaps get stronger. I don’t buy the theory that as a junior party they would suffer. SF will be happy no matter what after this election and will have the next 5 years to get a new leader, and really try to get in government, does not matter where FF are during this time.

People talk about the national interest in this forum, but do you think that the average FG voter is voting for a coalition with FF?? Really?? My own opinion is that there will be a second election. No government will be formed after this one. The voters will see that when the chance was there for a FF/FG government and did not happen, they will adjust their vote. Now how that adjustment will happen who knows. Will they switch from independent to FF/FG/SF/LAB or will one party gain the most from a second election? (I think Labour would).

People are voting knowing there will be a coalition, but they are not voting for a FF/FG coalition. Just because one party may have 40 seats and another 50, does not mean people can start shouting on about “they have a mandate. This is what the people want”.

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

gandalf

irishash wrote: »

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

irishash yes it will take an extreme situation to push the two of them together and tbh it may breakdown before they'd reach the term of the government. However if it looks like SF will get into power I think they will both go in together to keep them out. Now don't get me wrong if there is a possibility that they can go in with Labour, Renua, the Social Democrats and tainted Independents like the Healy-Rae(s) and Lowry they will jump at that first but if the only option is a FF/ FG marriage they will both hop into bed with each other quicker than a one night stand from Coppers!

Remember Enda in reality is at the end of his tenure as FG leader and he will be replaced within the term of this coming Government. This may force him to stand down. Michael Martin has been on thin ice for ages now as FF leader and again he could be forced down as leader to facilitate this unholy union. Ironically he is probably at his strongest now since taking over as leader but given his statements he would probably have to go as well.

From my perspective this is the hardest to call election I can remember since I got the vote 28 years ago! I think you are definitely on the ball saying the next Government will not run its full course and we may be facing another GE quite soon after this one (within two years).

First Up

irishash wrote: »

I saw it mentioned in one post, but overall there has been very little mention of what is possibly the strongest reason there will not be a FF/FG coalition.

For the past 5 years and before that even, the party line from FG is that FF ruined the country. They had the dinners with the bankers, had the tents at Galway, facilitated the property bubble, so on and on and on……

The election slogan from FG so far this campaign is “Let keep the recovery going” but during the debates it might as well have been “Don’t ever let these feckers in again as they will screw it up all over again. NEVER FORGET!!!”

And so after Friday the 26th, it is more than likely that the 2 biggest parties in the state will once again be FF and FG (or possibly SF and FG). Opinion coming from most commentators is no one party will have a majority and the only possible combination of 2 parties to have a comfortable majority is FF/FG.  Lots of people have said this will happen, despite what the parties have said themselves. The bookies think it will happen. Posters on here think it will happen.

But I don’t think it will for this reason. Because if this coalition comes to be, no voter of FG will forgive that decision come the election after this one. The FG vote would collapse and the party would be decimated. FF would survive, perhaps get stronger. I don’t buy the theory that as a junior party they would suffer. SF will be happy no matter what after this election and will have the next 5 years to get a new leader, and really try to get in government, does not matter where FF are during this time.

People talk about the national interest in this forum, but do you think that the average FG voter is voting for a coalition with FF?? Really?? My own opinion is that there will be a second election. No government will be formed after this one. The voters will see that when the chance was there for a FF/FG government and did not happen, they will adjust their vote. Now how that adjustment will happen who knows. Will they switch from independent to FF/FG/SF/LAB or will one party gain the most from a second election? (I think Labour would).

People are voting knowing there will be a coalition, but they are not voting for a FF/FG coalition. Just because one party may have 40 seats and another 50, does not mean people can start shouting on about “they have a mandate. This is what the people want”.

Lastly whatever else people believe about Enda, people don’t think he is stupid. They made a case 5 years ago with certain promises they could not deliver. The biggest promise he has made so far this election is that he will not go into government will FF. He breaks that, his legacy is tainted forever

I think you could be missing a few important angles.

Your hypothesis is based primarily on FG supporters being unhappy with a coalition with FF and deserting the party as a result. Where do you think these votes will go?

There is evidence of considerable fluidity between Labour and SF (essentially working class, less educated and somewhat "anti establishment".) There is fluidity between Labour and FF in working class urban constituencies. There is also fluidity between FF and SF (the green vote and both are anti FG). On the other hand, there is very little evidence of fluidity between FG and any of the above. Of course there are transfers between them in individual constituencies - you will see FG voters transferring to Labour this time. However there is very little risk of FG voters deserting the party and throwing their weight behind another - with the possible exception of bible thumpers supporting Renua who are a bit of a joke.

FG voters may not be voting for a coalition with FF as a first preference but they are primarily voting for stable government. That is evident from the Rainbow Coalition in which they worked with both Labour and Democratic Left. Coalescing with FF is far preferable to letting the achievements of the last five years be squandered by a crowd of populist dunces and partly reformed gangsters. There will for sure be an element in FG (as there is in FF) chained to Civil War divisions but there is more than enough pragmatic and responsible members of both parties to make it happen.

I think it might take a hung Dáil and a second election to get us there but if a FG/FF coalition is the only route to stable government, FG voters will not self-destruct over it.

irishash

First Up wrote: »

I think you could be missing a few important angles.

Your hypothesis is based primarily on FG supporters being unhappy with a coalition with FF and deserting the party as a result. Where do you think these votes will go?

There is evidence of considerable fluidity between Labour and SF (essentially working class, less educated and somewhat "anti establishment".) There is fluidity between Labour and FF in working class urban constituencies. There is also fluidity between FF and SF (the green vote and both are anti FG). On the other hand, there is very little evidence of fluidity between FG and any of the above. Of course there are transfers between them in individual constituencies - you will see FG voters transferring to Labour this time. However there is very little risk of FG voters deserting the party and throwing their weight behind another - with the possible exception of bible thumpers supporting Renua who are a bit of a joke.

FG voters may not be voting for a coalition with FF as a first preference but they are primarily voting for stable government. That is evident from the Rainbow Coalition in which they worked with both Labour and Democratic Left. Coalescing with FF is far preferable to letting the achievements of the last five years be squandered by a crowd of populist dunces and partly reformed gangsters. There will for sure be an element in FG (as there is in FF) chained to Civil War divisions but there is more than enough pragmatic and responsible members of both parties to make it happen.

I think it might take a hung Dáil and a second election to get us there but if a FG/FF coalition is the only route to stable government, FG voters will not self-destruct over it.

I see validity in everything you said, and you are right, it is the pragmatic approach, and more than likely if it happens Kenny will swansong off, prob to a euro post, and Martin to backbench obscurity.

But there is also the human element to this. And that element is far from pragmatic. FF saw their popular vote go down by 24.2% at the last election. It appears that the vast majority of these voters went to FG and Labour.  The reason for the switch is well known and not disputed – anger at the performance of the last government. Anger is a powerful emotion and can guide a person’s decisions.

If FG went into power with FF after this election, there would be considerable anger amoungst the FG voter base. And, as I believe, that future government lasts about 2-3 years, then those voters would not go back to FG. Your analysis is that there is little fluidity between FG and the other established parties and I agree with you there. But I do not agree with you that they would vote for FG regardless. They would go elsewhere due to the anger. Some would go to Labour. A lot I think would go independent/green, very few would go FF.

I could see a collapse for FG similar to FF in 2011 if that government came to be. The vast majority of people do not believe FF deserve another chance at power so soon. If they got this opportunity due to FG, then all the anger is on FG, not FF.

If there is a hung Dail and I think there will be, second election is called and the status quo maintained, then you could say they have very little choice. And you would be right. And the electorate would have to look at themselves in order to blame somebody. The first election will show them the reality of the situation. They will have a chance to change it. The only section of voters who will be able to change it will be the ones voting SF, Independent (Including AAA, PBP, SOC, Et all), Renua and SD. The voters of FF, FG and LAB will just do same again.   

First Up

There is no historical evidence of "core" FG voters switching allegiance. I agree they benefitted last time from soft FF support (although less than Labour did) and much of that will go back - and maybe elsewhere. But if given a choice between anger at coalition with FF and chaos, I am pretty confident what FG supporters will do.

Based on probable numbers, a FG/FF government would comfortably see out a five year term and is far more likely to do so than any other permutation.

gandalf

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

irishash

First Up wrote: »

Based on probable numbers, a FG/FF government would comfortably see out a five year term and is far more likely to do so than any other permutation.

Numbers alone, yes no problem 5 years could be done. However FF are the cutest political opportunists around and the moment they see an advantage (poll numbers up, a bad budget) they would pull the plug and chance it. That is why I think it would not last.

irishash

gandalf wrote: »

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

SF's only chance this time around would be with either FF or FG, so i think a second election will happen before the "pragmatic coalition" (trademark pending) as they will call it, will form.

...And Justice

irishash wrote: »

SF's only chance this time around would be with either FF or FG, so i think a second election will happen before the "pragmatic coalition" (trademark pending) as they will call it, will form.

Yep, hung dail, SF are going to put FF & FG through the ringer in this election, they will then of course form a government. Or SF&FF will form a government, but Gerry will have to go. Can't see that one happening though.

gandalf

...And Justice wrote: »

Yep, hung dail, SF are going to put FF & FG through the ringer in this election, they will then of course form a government. Or SF&FF will form a government, but Gerry will have to go. Can't see that one happening though.

Don't see a FF/SF coalition happening either especially if SF are the bigger party. FF would be "Green Partied" then and be decimated at the next election hemorrhaging a lot of support to SF.

Coillte_Bhoy

Ren2k7 wrote: »

The OIRA is still in existance and the fascist Blueshirts merged into FG. And a current minister of state is married to a man convicted of murdering another person while he was in the OIRA.

Let me get this straight, are you seriously comparing a few Labourites past associations with organisation linked to the now defucnt OIRA (over 40 years ago) with Adams, McGuinness, Ferris etc role in the provo campaign? :pac:

As for the blueshirts, ffs it was 80 years ago, if Eoin O'Duffy was FG leader today then you might have a valid point.

[/QUOTE]

quadrifoglio verde

No fine Gael taoiseach has ever had two successive terms in office
If Kenny can muster the numbers together, he will. Hell have achieved two things that neither cosgrave, Fitzgerald or Briton couldn't
FG as the biggest party and a fg taoiseach for more than two years

About two years into the new dail, hell resign allowing bruton, Fitzgerald, coveney or veradkar to take over the reigns. Harris with an outside shot.
Fine Gael with a new leader that's a lot more likable will pick up seats

Lots of voters out there for fine Gael that they're not getting because in front of the camera, Kenny is weak and toxic
Behind the closed doors of fine Gael hq, it's a different story and that's why he survived 07

Loafing Oaf

gandalf wrote: »

I think the core FG supporters would go ape**** if FG allowed SF to get into Government when there was a chance they could have stopped it even if it means having to woo FF.

Yes I think this is the bottom line as far as most FG people are concerned, and the reason they will ultimately swallow an alliance with the auld enemy. Plus the fact that they will be have significantly more seats mean such an alliance can be sold to them as putting one over on FF.

First Up

irishash wrote:

Numbers alone, yes no problem 5 years could be done. However FF are the cutest political opportunists around and the moment they see an advantage (poll numbers up, a bad budget) they would pull the plug and chance it. That is why I think it would not last.

Unless they had some major issue of difference; I doubt they would pull the plug, at least not until the next election was looming anyway. They would need to be awfully sure their numbers were up for reasons of their own doing and not just for being part of an effective government. They would not be thanked for bringing a government down for such transparently self interest reasons.

There are obvious long term strategic considerations for them aligning with FG but if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

irishash

First Up wrote: »

if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

I agree and think this will happen. And there would be considerable less anger surronding this, but some anger none the less. But I still think 2 elections at this stage unless 2007 happens again and the government parties get a ballot box boost.

Idbatterim

whatever about the SF past etc, one immediate deal breaker I see is, FG and FF know what damage to the economy Sf proposals for increased taxes on lowish all the way up to high incomes would do. I cant see them being even close to being able to agree on that. Also the issue with capping Ps pay at 100k etc. SF also know what happened to Labour with their voters perceived view of "broken promises" SF if forming coalition wouldnt want to over promise and under deliver... They will be in opposition again, FF and FG would would be at it in bed, long before they would ever let SF in!

Godge

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yes I think this is the bottom line as far as most FG people are concerned, and the reason they will ultimately swallow an alliance with the auld enemy. Plus the fact that they will be have significantly more seats mean such an alliance can be sold to them as putting one over on FF.

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

Mr.Micro

Godge wrote: »

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

Could well be true. FG have not had a good campaign. I think there is now a possibility that FF will be neck and neck come the results. The Irish electorate love the old days....spend, spend spend and who better that FF to give them that.

quadrifoglio verde

Godge wrote: »

Word on the street is that FG have held money back for a second election.

Dump Kenny on the basis of election failure, put it up to SF and FF to form a government with the AAA and SDs and sit and wait for the inevitable disaster within months before Varadkar/Coveneny leads them back.

If that was the case, Kenny would have walked 6 months ago

Loafing Oaf

First Up wrote: »

There are obvious long term strategic considerations for them aligning with FG but if after two GE's it is still the only serious option, they (and FG) would be under huge pressure to bite the bullet.

I reckon if a government cannot be formed and there is another GE this year, FF and FG will explicitly leave open the option of coalition with each other, even if they tear strips of each other in the campaign as normal.

Brussels Sprout

Paddy Power have this as the favourite to be the next government @ 8/13 but I think a much better bet is FG minority government @ 5/1.

I can't see FF going in as the minority partner in government for a few reasons:

1. If recent history has thought us anything it's that minority partners in coalitions get all of the blame and none of the credit (PDs, Greens & Labour here; Lib Dems in the UK).
2. If they were to do this it would leave Sinn Fein as the largest party in opposition. The fear would be that as the main dissenting voice in the Dáil this would give them a platform to accelerate their impressive growth.
3. Micheal Martin has said he won't do it. If they were to go into coalition with FG after that then he'd be put in a very awkward spot and he may even be forced to resign as party leader (a la Trevor Sargent in 2011). Given that he's been widely touted as the party's major asset in this election that would a bitter pill to swallow for him and the party.

On the other hand I could see FF propping up a minority FG government for a short period on a vote-by-vote basis. Martin has not ruled out doing this. I think people discount it as we've had so many stable governments over the past 25 years. However, the 1980's were a different story. We had 5 general elections in that decade and 3 in the space of 18 months in 1981/82.

5/1 = 16.7% chance of happening. Worth a flutter

Loafing Oaf

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Paddy Power have this as the favourite to be the next government @ 8/13 but I think a much better bet is FG minority government @ 5/1.

I can't see FF going in as the minority partner in government for a few reasons:

1. If recent history has thought us anything it's that minority partners in coalitions get all of the blame and none of the credit (PDs, Greens & Labour here; Lib Dems in the UK).
2. If they were to do this it would leave Sinn Fein as the largest party in opposition. The fear would be that as the main dissenting voice in the Dáil this would give them a platform to accelerate their impressive growth.
3. Micheal Martin has said he won't do it. If they were to go into coalition with FG after that then he'd be put in a very awkward spot and he may even be forced to resign as party leader (a la Trevor Sargent in 2011). Given that he's been widely touted as the party's major asset in this election that would a bitter pill to swallow for him and the party.

On the other hand I could see FF propping up a minority FG government for a short period on a vote-by-vote basis. Martin has not ruled out doing this. I think people discount it as we've had so many stable governments over the past 25 years. However, the 1980's were a different story. We had 5 general elections in that decade and 3 in the space of 18 months in 1981/82.

5/1 = 16.7% chance of happening. Worth a flutter

I got on that at 8/1 the other day. Actually meant to bet on it at 18/1 with Boyles a couple of months ago but never got round.

IMO reason 3 you cite is much the strongest one. I don't really see any case for the 'Tallaght strategy' being more in FF's interests than a proper coalition, except that Martin has ruled the latter out definitively and would destroy his credibility if he went back on his word.

Brussels Sprout

K-9

Martin is looking to extract a high price from FG so by no means a cert yet.