General Election 2016 - Clare

golfball37

There's a topic in most other regional folders for the election.

Anyone have any canvassers call- We've only had one- Clare Collaran-Molloy, the rest have just dropped leaflets and ran.

Its going to be some battle between Joe Carey and Pat Breen I predict. Anne Norton will poll well but I think she'll fall short.

I predict a return to the usual 2 FF, 2FG.

Clareman

golfball37 wrote: »

There's a topic in most other regional folders for the election.

Anyone have any canvassers call- We've only had one- Clare Collaran-Molloy, the rest have just dropped leaflets and ran.

Its going to be some battle between Joe Carey and Pat Breen I predict. Anne Norton will poll well but I think she'll fall short.

I predict a return to the usual 2 FF, 2FG.

2FF & 2FG wouldn't be that usual, normally it's 2 of either FF/FG, 1 from the other and 1 independent/Labour. Between Michael McNamara and Bamjee Labour have a decent enough history in Clare in the past 25 years.

My take on it would be that Breen will top the poll as he is the longest serving and he's got a good track record in elections. Michael Mc could poll well thanks to standing up for Shannon as well as been vocal on a lot of topics, I'd imagine Dooley will be the main FF vote so he should get in. I would say that the last seat will be Carey's but Mary Howard has a strong Ennis vote as well as the fact that Malty and Dr. Harty could get a strong West Clare/rural vote. Norton as you said could poll well but transfer probably won't do her any favours.

It could go to a lot of counts before anyone gets in, I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of people don't reach the quota.

I'm a bit annoyed that the vote is taking place in The Falls this year, not that it's a bad thing to move it around (darts on in the West) but it's a great session down there and watching the count can be fascinating.

buck65

Breen, Dooley definitely returned but after that?
!
McNamara will struggle with the general Labour malaise that's out there. Yes he stood up against the AerLingus sale but has he done enough?

Norton will poll strongly but as said transfers mightn't be kind, Howard not a hope IMO-3 FG candidates is counter productive, Carey will, like McNamara struggle to capture the imagination and he will lose his seat I think.

Michael Harty may be a bolter and I think could make it. Sinn Fein also will do well and Moran though low profile/unknown will be ok too.

Colleran-Molloy could be the one to watch though. Women will vote for women this time around because of the quotas and the publicity around it. Certainly the few I have spoken to are intent on seeing a woman elected and I fancy Clare.

so for me Dooley to top, Breen, Harty, Colleran- Molloy!

Clareman

1 TD from the current government would be a major shock in my opinion.

I think both the major parties are making a big mistake running 3 candidates as they are splitting their core vote, if FF went with Dooley & Colleran-Molloy both would have a great chance to get it as would a mix of Breen/Carey & Howard.

Transfers are going to be great, I would imagine that no-one will get past the quote the first few rounds, most of the independents will be wiped out, where those transfers will be huge and I don't think the local votes should be underestimated, there could be a massive swing from East to West depending on where the transfers are picked from.

black & white

I think one of the reasons that 3 candidates are being run by FF/FG is that they were afraid if they opted for 2, the other would run as an Independent. Look at the Healey Rae's in Kerry, if Jackie had gotten the nod from FF maybe there would be a different story down there. According to reports today, both of the f*ckers might get in.

Clareman

black & white wrote: »

I think one of the reasons that 3 candidates are being run by FF/FG is that they were afraid if they opted for 2, the other would run as an Independent. Look at the Healey Rae's in Kerry, if Jackie had gotten the nod from FF maybe there would be a different story down there. According to reports today, both of the f*ckers might get in.

FF got caught with James Breen a few years back in Clare, to be honest I can't see Malty having any chance without the FF ticket but not too long ago FF got 3 seats to admit now that they don't have a hope for 3 would be a major step down. FG would be mad to sacrifice a sitting TD to meet their female quota.

crazyguy01

Every evening I am amazed that no canvassers have called, I am about 3 miles outside Ennis and Colleran Molloy has been the only 1 so far - well her "people" called to be exact.

It will be a tough call and I find McNamara very doubtful, sure he stood up for Shannon but what's changed now it's election time, back in the fold?

Breen, Dooley, and the last 2 wide open I think...

Kristopherus

Guys, whats the line-up?

Clareman

Kristopherus wrote: »

Guys, whats the line-up?

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clare_(D%C3%A1il_%C3%89ireann_constituency)

Party Candidate % 1st Pref Count 1
Fine Gael Pat Breen
Independent Richard Cahill
Fine Gael Joe Carey
Fianna Fáil Clare Colleran Molloy
Fianna Fáil Timmy Dooley
Independent Michael Harty
Fine Gael Mary Howard
Independent Ian Lynch
Fianna Fáil Michael McDonagh
Labour Party Michael McNamara
Sinn Féin Noeleen Moran
Independent Dermot Mulqueen
Independent Anne Norton
Fís Nua Niamh O'Brien
Independent André Sibo Hakizimana
Green Party Fergal Smith

Lady Chatterton

I reckon it will be Pat Breen, Dr. Harty, Timmy Dooley and the last seat could go anywhere.

angelfire9

Dooley for sure
Other three hard to call
Breen could suffer from Harty and McDonagh
Carey might get in on Howard's transfers
McDonagh might get in on CCM transfers
Harty might get in on his own unless the GMS payments kill him
McNamara might make the last seat with a lot of luck

I'd write off
Cahill
Colleran-Molloy
Hazizimana
Howard
Lynch
Moran
Mulqueen
Norton
O Brien
Smith

That leaves 6 fighting for four seats

Breen
Carey
Dooley
Harty
McDonagh
McNamara

Transfers will make or break

If I had to predict
Dooley Breen Carey McDonagh in that order

ger664

I think Harty will poll very strong in both West and North Clare and I would not be surprised if he tops the poll. Breen and Dooley should retain their seats after that Carey/Howard and Molloy/McDonagh in a dog fight for the last seat

lab man

Mc Donagh hasn't a hope.. dooley mc breen carey and Dr. Harty

angelfire9

lab man wrote: »

Mc Donagh hasn't a hope.. dooley mc breen carey and Dr. Harty

Can't see 2 FG being re-elected that easily

Clareman

I just took a look at the last 5 elections, outside of the 2011 Election FF have had over 40% of the vote and FG have had more than 25%. I would say that this time around it'll be something similar to this, the last 35% will be down to transfers, I think FF & FG are making a mistake splitting their vote, strangely enough whichever party has their third candidate eliminated first will probably fare the best.

2011 2007 2002 1997 1992 Average
FG 30.5 35.2 25.5 30.1 25.6 29.38
FF 22.1 44 45.4 50.3 51.7 42.7
Lab 14.8 1.6 3.4 3.6 11.5 6.98
Green 2 5.1 5.8 3.6 4.13
Indep 11.2 9.3 19.5 13.33

golfball37

What % is the SF candidate likely to receive? I can't see it being >5%

Clareman

golfball37 wrote: »

What % is the SF candidate likely to receive? I can't see it being >5%

For the likes of the Independents and SF it's not so much how much they'll poll but where their transfers will go to

finbarrk

Todays Clare Champion poll has 2 new TD'S. Dr. Harty and Noleen Moran. To follow in Pat Breen and Timmy Dooley. I don't agree with it however. I wouldn't think SF will get a candidate elected in Clare.
http://www.clarechampion.ie/poll-predicts-two-new-tds/

golfball37

finbarrk wrote: »

Todays Clare Champion poll has 2 new TD'S. Dr. Harty and Noleen Moran. To follow in Pat Breen and Timmy Dooley. I don't agree with it however. I wouldn't think SF will get a candidate elected in Clare.
http://www.clarechampion.ie/poll-predicts-two-new-tds/

Norton and Morans numbers mixed up is all I'm assuming.

Clareman

660 out of a ~80k electorate is just a way way too small a sample size to be anyway accurate.

elastico

Clareman wrote: »

660 out of a ~80k electorate is just a way way too small a sample size to be anyway accurate.

Well in national polls they only ask about 1000 people and claim 3% accuracy.

Indicators are its either a FF / FG coalition or some sort of rainbow involving FG/ other parties / independents.

Its probably best have an independent elected in Clare to at least be in the mix if a rainbow involving independents gets put forward.

A FF/FG government and Dooley would probably be in the cabinet as he is FF front bench at the moment. Along with Noonan that should give the region a bit of clout.

Voting labour would be a waste IMO.

People need to keep an eye on the national picture when voting.

Clareman

Fair point, the main polls don't go down to second preferences or anything like that. I find the whole thing fascinating, could you imagine if it there was 4 different sections for first past the post in Clare, Michael Mc & Timmy Dooley would be up against each other in East Clare, Ennis would probably be the FG folks, west Clare would be Malty vs. Hillary, north Clare would be everyone else, no fun.

buck65

The poll carried out confirms my suspicions that Carey/McNamara are very doubtful - they went with Moran, personally Norton or Colleran/Molloy seems more likely.

ger664

finbarrk wrote: »

Todays Clare Champion poll has 2 new TD'S. Dr. Harty and Noleen Moran. To follow in Pat Breen and Timmy Dooley. I don't agree with it however. I wouldn't think SF will get a candidate elected in Clare.
http://www.clarechampion.ie/poll-predicts-two-new-tds/

This poll didnt take any sample from north clare. Both SF and Dr Harty should poll well there as none of the major parties have a local representative standing.

I will eat my hat if McNamara gets 8% of the first preference vote.

finbarrk

ger664 wrote: »

This poll didnt take any sample from north clare. Both SF and Dr Harty should poll well there as none of the major parties have a local representative standing.

I will eat my hat if McNamara gets 8% of the first preference vote.

How do you mean? Is it that you think he will get more or less than 8%?
He got over 8,000 no 1's in the last election anyway.

finbarrk

Here is the Clare Heralds poll result from last night. Not sure about it either, even though they took over twice the votes that the Champion did. But it was done in a different way.
http://clareherald.com/2016/02/the-clare-herald-general-election-poll-results-678/

golfball37

finbarrk wrote: »

Here is the Clare Heralds poll result from last night. Not sure about it either, even though they took over twice the votes that the Champion did. But it was done in a different way.
http://clareherald.com/2016/02/the-clare-herald-general-election-poll-results-678/

People online could vote for four candidates- Thats why Independents are so high. I wouldn't trust it tbh.

Palmach

finbarrk wrote: »

How do you mean? Is it that you think he will get more or less than 8%?
He got over 8,000 no 1's in the last election anyway.

He will get in. He'll get the 4th seat without reaching the quota. He has done enough distancing from Labour over the 5 years to get enough transfers.

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

This poll didnt take any sample from north clare. Both SF and Dr Harty should poll well there as none of the major parties have a local representative standing.

I will eat my hat if McNamara gets 8% of the first preference vote.

Last time out he got 14.8% of the vote, considering he has been probably the second most media friendly Clare TD and he is popular I can't imagine him losing almost half his vote, assuming a turnout of 55,000, 8% is "just" 4,400 votes

Lady Chatterton

I think doing well in a poll can create its own issues for candidates. For example, if the polls are to believed Pat Breen is safe and Carey is at risk This could cause FG voters to change their order of preference to Vote 1 for Carey and 2 for Breen. Breen has for years been playing up the West Clare thing but this time Harty and Lynch are more West Clare than he is and they're going to take votes from him.

I'm not convinced that Noeleen Moran is going to get elected. I know SF supporters in my own circle who are concerned with their plans to abolish the Special Criminal Court and Gerry Adam's failure to grasp basic economic matters.

The final seat will be between Carey and McNamara I reckon.

golfball37

Clareman wrote: »

Last time out he got 14.8% of the vote, considering he has been probably the second most media friendly Clare TD and he is popular I can't imagine him losing almost half his vote, assuming a turnout of 55,000, 8% is "just" 4,400 votes

Last time out he got a lower % than the LP national average. 8% is about right this time imo.