General Election 2016 - Clare

Lady Chatterton

Election poll added for fun. Individual votes are anonymous.

ger664

finbarrk wrote: »

How do you mean? Is it that you think he will get more or less than 8%?
He got over 8,000 no 1's in the last election anyway.

Clareman wrote: »

Last time out he got 14.8% of the vote, considering he has been probably the second most media friendly Clare TD and he is popular I can't imagine him losing almost half his vote, assuming a turnout of 55,000, 8% is "just" 4,400 votes

Labour got a late surge due to the Tesco add of them been the minders of FG. We saw how that worked out. A lot of the Non aligned voters voted for Labour last time as there was no credible alternative to FF/FG on the ground. He may be popular but I think the Labour backlash is going to hurt him.

Labours core vote in the county is ~4% First Preference.

Lady Chatterton

I used to have a lot of time for Michael but he seems to be having his cake and eating it at the moment. He is happy to let Labour fund his bid to get re-elected but he wants to distance himself from some of their unpopular decisions/policies.

The other night he was behaving like he was on the opposition benches by having a go at his party colleague Aodhan O'Riordan on Facebook and Twitter.

Michael McNamara TD
February 16 at 11:17pm ·
"If Gardai are valued public servants @AodhanORiordain, why did you oppose my Bill to give them collective bargaining rights?@TonightWithVinB"

It's a shame he didn't leave Labour and go independent. At least Róisín Shorthall had the liathroidi to give up her ministerial position because she felt that Labour in government were short changing their supporters and the public.

tatoo

buck65 wrote: »

The poll carried out confirms my suspicions that Carey/McNamara are very doubtful - they went with Moran, personally Norton or Colleran/Molloy seems more likely.

I don't think Moran has a chance, her first preferences won't be nearly high enough and its unlikely that she will attract any sizeable amount of transfers, Ann Nortons campaign has ran out of momentum and Clare Colleran-Molloy struggled until the final count to win the last council seat......it would be an amazing performance for her to even be in the shake up.

Four seats, Dooley to top the poll and certain to be elected,
Final three seats to be between Breen, Carey, McNamara and Harty.

maryb26

Mod:Video embedded

tatoo

What is Dr. Harty proposing to do to sort out the problem ?

Train more doctors, stop them from going abroad, or stop a doctor who wishes to practise in the town or city from doing so ?

Is he looking for the rural doctors to be subsidised?

ger664

tatoo wrote: »

What is Dr. Harty proposing to do to sort out the problem ?

Simple treat patients in the community. No need for everyone to be going to a center of excellence that cant handle the volume of patients

tatoo

But isn't the crux of the problem that there's no doctors in some of the rural villages.

golfball37

tatoo wrote: »

But isn't the crux of the problem that there's no doctors in some of the rural villages.

There's going to be one less if the polls are to be believed..

tatoo

It appears so, so what is not having a doctor in Kilmihil going to do to help the situation ?

We would all like to see the likes of Feakle having their own GP
How does Dr. Harty propose to attract one to there ?

ger664

tatoo wrote: »

But isn't the crux of the problem that there's no doctors in some of the rural villages.

Yes which is why free GP care wont happen either. Lack of resources and funding is where the issue lies. The cuts to rural practices and GMS schemes have made it unattractive for GP's to setup in these areas.

This will require more funding. We as a nation have a choice to make. We cant have a Low Tax system (promises of no USC etc) and expect a functional Health Service at the same time.

tatoo

OK so, its unattractive for GPs to set up in rural areas, what do we do......
Train more doctors,or subsidise the ones that are there ?

We don't have a low tax economy as it stands at the minute, and our not fit for purpose health service costs an absolute fortune, what's your solution.... Increase taxes and throw more money at it ?

buck65

Harty's canvassers said he's retiring and having a go at this lark!
Personally I think voting independent is counter productive, in fairness what is Ann Norton or Harty going to do but be in the opposition complaining. A disparate band of indies in the government would last about a year at most.

Also disagree about the remark in McNamara, standing apart from party policy is a good thing at times pity Dooley didn't do the same in 2007 when he went with his party on the slots form Shannon to Heathrow.

RoisinD

ger664 wrote: »

This poll didnt take any sample from north clare. Both SF and Dr Harty should poll well there as none of the major parties have a local representative standing.

I will eat my hat if McNamara gets 8% of the first preference vote.

Yes they did poll in North Clare. They were at Fitzpatricks SUpervalu in Ennnistymon on either Fri or Sat. Can't remember what day I saw them there.

tatoo

buck65 wrote: »

Harty's canvassers said he's retiring and having a go at this lark!
Personally I think voting independent is counter productive, in fairness what is Ann Norton or Harty going to do but be in the opposition complaining. A disparate band of indies in the government would last about a year at most.

Also disagree about the remark in McNamara, standing apart from party policy is a good thing at times pity Dooley didn't do the same in 2007 when he went with his party on the slots form Shannon to Heathrow.

People have short memories it seems, Dooley will probably top the poll :eek:

Lady Chatterton

buck65 wrote: »

Also disagree about the remark in McNamara, standing apart from party policy is a good thing at times pity Dooley didn't do the same in 2007 when he went with his party on the slots form Shannon to Heathrow.

Dooley did far more harm, he along with the FF party supported the removal of 24 hour A&E services in Ennis so we could all travel to the so called 'Centre of Excellence'in the Midwestern Regional Hospital Limerick.

Here is a recent report about A&E services in Limerick :mad:


http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/emergency-department-at-limerick-hospital-is-absolute-hell-reveals-whistleblower-721655.html

elastico

MrsD007 wrote: »

Dooley did far more harm, he along with the FF party supported the removal of 24 hour A&E services in Ennis so we could all travel to the so called 'Centre of Excellence'in the Midwestern Regional Hospital Limerick.

Here is a recent report about A&E services in Limerick :mad:


http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/emergency-department-at-limerick-hospital-is-absolute-hell-reveals-whistleblower-721655.html

While I agree Limerick is a bit of a disaster zone, I do agree with the centre of excellence concept.

Take a specialist in broken bones for example, they can have one 24/7 in Limerick instead of maybe 1 in Ennis, 2 in Limerick and 1 in Nenagh but all on a part time basis.

With road improvements Limerick is a lot closer to Nenagh and Ennis now for patients and visitors alike.

Lady Chatterton

elastico wrote: »

While I agree Limerick is a bit of a disaster zone, I do agree with the centre of excellence concept.

Take a specialist in broken bones for example, they can have one 24/7 in Limerick instead of maybe 1 in Ennis, 2 in Limerick and 1 in Nenagh but all on a part time basis.

With road improvements Limerick is a lot closer to Nenagh and Ennis now for patients and visitors alike.

I agree with the Centre of Excellence concept too but Limerick is along way from being a Centre of Excellence. It is completely under resourced. By the way, not everyone in Clare lives in Ennis, when you're travelling to Limerick from West Clare, it's no joke.

I feel 24 hour A&E in Ennis and Nenagh should be reinstated and it would help take the pressure off Limerick. Obviously it would make sense to send more complex cases to Limerick. At the moment, everyone is heading to Limerick and I'm pretty sure that some of the cases could be handled locally.

Lady Chatterton

buck65 wrote: »

Personally I think voting independent is counter productive, in fairness what is Ann Norton or Harty going to do but be in the opposition complaining. A disparate band of indies in the government would last about a year at most.

Personally I wouldn't write off Ann Norton. She is a capable woman who set up Clare Crusaders Children's Clinic along with the late, Howard Flannery when they couldn't obtain appropriate services for their children with special needs. Instead of moaning about her lot she found a solution.

The clinic now provides speech and language therapy, occupational therapy, physiotherapy and special education intervention for 450 children free of charge. She works voluntarily as the Clinic's manager and is active in fundraising the €250,000 a year it costs to run the clinic. It is important to note that the clinic receives no government funding.

The HSE fund their own service for children with special needs - Clare Early Intervention, it costs about €1.5 annually to run. There are major issues with long waiting lists to see therapists. Staff turnover and staff not being replaced when on sick leave/maternity leave is very problematic for the service. Clare Early Intervention Services provides only 5% of the services and supports for children with special needs in County Clare.

The reality is while many children who are diagnosed with special needs obtain their initial diagnosis from the HSE (usually after a very lengthy wait, sometimes years) they are advised by HSE staff to go private for therapies or attend Clare Crusaders.

So, when I look at what Ann Norton and Co. have managed to achieve on a shoestring budget v's the Monster that is the HSE I have some admiration for her.

Lampost Gazer

Clare Champion poll was an odd one for me primarily due to her low placing. She is very competent but the pr hysteria around Harty and the 'rural revolution' is hurting her chances. Re: the poll, Pat Breen's collection of votes in Ennis seemed over-inflated compared to hers and Mary Howard as well as other more local candidates. The Poll also preceded all the talk of the Doctor's income which will have put some people off. Ultimately, it will be hard to kill the momentum around Harty's campaign for an independent seat. Norton far more likely to deliver than him as a TD but momentum is everything. Three days is a long time in politics so who knows. As for other candidates, you can take it Timmy is safe, one seat for FG and McNamara leading the hunt for the final spot. Clare Colleran Molloy will prob pip Malty on first preferences but could lose ground to him later on in the count based on transfers from the likes of Lynch and Moran should they be eliminated first. There is as much chance of two FF seats as two Indos and neither are very likely. I am going 1 fg, 1 ff, lab and Ind.

Lady Chatterton

I've seen a lot of polls and the only two seats that seem definite are Dooley and Breen's. Harty looks very likely too, he has unbelievable support. I think that it's as much of a protest vote as anything else.

I think Breen will get no where near the 1st preferences that he received last time. Carey seems to be getting lots of endorsements from high profile FG people within the county, perhaps he needs them?

FG should have added Tony Mulcahy if they wanted to retain two FG seats, Tony polled very well last time. Mary Howard was added to the ticket too late, up until last week she wasn't even listed on the FG website as a candidate which was very unfair to her. Mary is very popular in Ennis and environs but I reckon she might struggle to get votes from elsewhere in the county.

At the moment I think there are lots of people out there that are unsure of how to vote and are looking for the least worst option, I include myself in that.

Lampost Gazer

Mary Howard has been poorly treated by Fine Gael, I agree. Fine Gael simply added her to fulfill their gender quota and somewhat of a lift for Joe or Pat in transfers. She would have been better off biding her time rather than jumping in now.

Tony Mulcahy would have secured 2 seats for FG. The decision not to add him more likely a HQ favour to Pat and Joe to preserve their seats, a decision that ironically looks like costing one of them a seat.

Never underestimate the Carey machine and with Tony backing Joe, I think Pat will be hard pressed to beat him. That said, for Pat to not get elected would require a massive drop in first preferences. An interesting battle awaits for what I believe to be one FG seat.

Timmy has been very muted throughout the campaign. His strongest asset probably has been CCM and Michael McDonagh. They make him look like somewhat of an elder statesman to the FF voters. He has obviously decided not to engage with the media. Often a risky tactic but the risk is low for him this time around.

Michael McNamara was doing much better 2-3 weeks ago but the hemorrhaging of FG and Labour popularity in the meantime will affect him. He had separated himself somewhat from Labour's woes until the last two weeks but Labour's poor campaign will damage him. Numerous reports of his less than friendly style with those who dont agree with him on the door has also gone against him. He will be contesting for that final seat and is still the favourite imo.

Michael Harty - Was a shoe-in a week ago but less so now due to some whispers circulating about his income. Should have enough though. Liam Glynn who is running his campaign has adopted a rather americanised pr campaign approach. Nothing wrong with it but I think it does represent a cover for his no doctor no village manifesto of seeking more money for GPs. The post office, garda station and other rural issues are not really central to his concerns. Local media have not pushed him on the wider issues and he has not engaged. Haven't seen any pr from his side in the press or on radio other than **k video views in 24 hrs, ** euro raised online, fundraising concert and other fluff. The very intense campaigning by doctors and other medical professionals on his behalf has worked and proves that deference to such professions is alive and well in Ireland. If he gets elected one of two things will happen. He will be asked to form the next Government and he will oblige. GPs will get their increase and he will be told to sit on the back bench until 2021 and agree with everything the Govt says. Or alternatively, he will be elected as an Indo and sit on opposition benches and achieve little or nothing.

Ann Norton is by far a stronger proposition than Dr Harty who I have heard little from (excluding Clare FM debate) other than social media driven PR and carefully choreographed videos and fundraisers. Norton has achieved an immense amount with the Crusaders and knows the health service inside out. She has impressed on radio and what i have seen of her. Direct and assured. Would be interesting to see what she could achieve with a stronger political mandate than her present Council position.

Noeleen Moran - there is a Sinn Fein vote in Clare but not the 340% increase on the Local Election vote that the Clare Champion suggested. She will poll up to 8% of many boxes and will see off many others before her eventual elimination. Heard her on the radio for a second time today and she is very weak. The fact that Adams and Mary Lou haven't been down here in recent weeks may tell you all you need to know about her real chances.

Fergal Smith - Comes across as a confident, friendly and articulate person. He is a bit green though in every sense. might do better than a lot of people have suggested. A similar number first preference vote to what Brian Markham got last time out.

Clare Colleran Molloy and Michael McDonagh are neck and neck as of today. FF's capacity or Timmy's willingness to vote share may kill off the second seat chances. Malty ultimately being pegged down by Harty's hoovering of votes along the western seaboard.

Lady Chatterton

I agree about the Harty campaign to a point - it has an Obama - 'Yes we can' feel to it. It has captured the imagination of the public but I wonder what substance is really behind it. If I was Enda Kenny, Harty would be one of the first independents I would talk to. If Harty gets a decent deal for the doctors I suspect he would be loyal to any government for the full term. Harty if elected will probably only serve one term so it's unlikely he will have to face an angry electorate. The other thing is that his motto is - No doctor No village so he is being up front, his primary focus is about maintaining the livelihood of rural GPs.

On the issue of his income, there has been smear campaigns against him. The €200,000 he was receiving annually was not entirely HIS income, it was to pay staff, pay for insurance, his surgery etc... I think a few candidates mentioned this and it backfired spectacularly on them. It's worth noting that both Breen and Carey claim very high expenses - €222,000 approx. each, on top of their €89,000 salary.

Lampost Gazer

MrsD007 wrote: »

I agree about the Harty campaign to a point - it has an Obama - 'Yes we can feel to it'. It has captured the imagination of the public but I wonder what substance is really behind it. If I was Enda Kenny, Harty would be one of the first independents I would talk to. If Harty gets a decent deal for the doctors I suspect he would be loyal to any government for the full term. Harty if elected will probably only serve one term so it's unlikely he will have to face an angry electorate. The other thing is that his motto is - No doctor No village so he is being up front, his primary focus is about maintaining the livelihood of rural GPs.

On the issue of his income, there has been smear campaigns against him. The €200,000 he was receiving annually was not entirely HIS income, it was to pay staff, pay for insurance, his surgery etc... I think a few candidates mentioned this and it backfired spectacularly on them. It's worth noting that both Breen and Carey claim very high expenses - €222,000 approx. each, on top of their €89,000 salary.

I think it was their failure to ask the right question that killed those who raised the issue i.e. what is his private practice income that is additional to the HSE funds. Also, Dr Harty's response or Liam Glynn's response in the Champion to Carey about Joe's Dail expenses/earnings is a red herring as Dr Harty himself will be earning the same should he be elected. Got them out of a sticky situation for now though. Ultimately, it doesn't matter to me at least. I care more for what someone can actually deleiver for the county. His income is his business imo. I won't vote for him as his remit if he is elected will be very narrow. Single issue candidates inevitably turn out to be flops for the people of the constituency they represent. Look at his counterpart Cowley in Mayo. That is is no way a dispersion on the man himself (Harty) who I gather is an absolute gentlemen and is genuine regarding GO practises. It's the dressing up of his single issue candidacy by his campaign team into being more than that which turns me off. It's superb politicking from a campaign perspective though and hats off to them. It seems to be working with people, particularly older people in rural west and north Clare who do turn out to vote in huge numbers.

Finally, this election in Clare is the closest I have seen in a long time. However, the overall standard of candidates is uninspiring. It's all been a bit dull. Saturday will drag into Sunday afternoon I sense as it will be close and there will a surprise or two (as always).

Lady Chatterton

To be fair to Dr. Harty, I have heard him speak about his private practice but unfortunately I can't remember the figures but he appears to have a very small private practice.

I remember Dr. Harty campaigning for the retention of 24 hour A&E in Ennis some years ago, he took part in rallies, protest marches etc. I remember him speaking in O'Connell Square about the importance of the 'golden hour' when treating patients with stroke, heart and other life threatening conditions. Some accused him of scaremongering at the time but everything he said about the Midwestern Hospital in Limerick not being able to cope has come to pass. I believe that he is passionate about his patients and their welfare. By the way Cowley delivered for Mayo, he managed to get an ambulance service for Mulranny and some other medical services.

Harty may be a single issue candidate but most people I speak to feel the same way about Ann Norton. She has successfully campaigned for disability services and rights but there are some who feel she is very weak on economic issues. I'm aware that she was a successful business woman prior to setting up Clare Crusaders but I don't think she has spoken enough about this.

Both Norton and Harty are due to appear on RTE 1's Six O'Clock news this evening.

tatoo

I expect Norton and Harty voters to transfer to each other virtually en masse , both should benefit from the other Independent candidates funnelling into them,
At this stage I'd say its virtually certain that the doc is ahead of her on number ones, and therefore equally certain that he will take a seat.
Dooley is the only other possibility to top the poll ( God help us ) and his two running mates look to be weak outside their hinterland - Dooley a bigger certainty to take a seat, that leaves three fighting for the final two seats Pat Breen, Ml Mc & Joe Carey.
Carey will benefit from the work he has done for Shannon with Tony Mulcahy, and also from Mulcahys support in the greater Shannon area.
McNamara's in-laws working hard for him I believe , but theres only a limited number of votes in the West and North Clare, I don't know how the books have Moran at odds on to take a seat - can't see her having any chance .

elastico

Limerick got slated on prime time tonight but the new a&e is due to open first quarter 2017.

Lady Chatterton

The HSE should've left 24 hour A&E services in place in Ennis and Nenagh until the new A&E was open and fully operational.

ger664

tatoo wrote: »

OK so, its unattractive for GPs to set up in rural areas, what do we do......
Train more doctors,or subsidise the ones that are there ?

We don't have a low tax economy as it stands at the minute, and our not fit for purpose health service costs an absolute fortune, what's your solution.... Increase taxes and throw more money at it ?

Our Tax take against GDP ~30% is one of the lowest in the EU. Some parts of our economy are not paying their fair share.

Our spend on Health while above the EU average ranks us 10th on spend per capitia. While I concur that there is a serious overhaul needed in the health service on how it spends its funds but all the recent cuts since 2008 have been targeted at closing down local services, without putting anything in place to pick up the slack. I agree throwing money at the problem wont make it go away but correct investment in local services will place it back on the right track.

Lady Chatterton

I feel that the funding of our health care system is adequate but there is tonnes of waste within the HSE.

The HSE have spent millions on legal fees to fight parents whose children have been injured or died at birth through medical negligence. Instead of admitting liability or coming to an early settlement they allow cases to drag on for years before finally making out of court settlements or being found negligent by the courts.

Then there are the HSE spin doctors, back in 2009 these guys were costing 51 million, unfortunately I don't have an update figure but I've no reason to believe that the practice has changed.

Like I said in an earlier post, Clare Crusaders Clinic can provide a variety of services on a budget of €250,000 while the local HSE children's service which is receipt of major funding only meets the needs of 5% of children in need of services.