General Election 2016 - Clare

ger664

Have many of the Ennis/Kilrush boxes been opened ?
Really expected a better showing from Mary Howard and Ian Lynch.

Looking at those Figure it would look like only Pat Breen from the Govt Parties will be retuned.

crazyguy01

Looking back, that is 40 boxes out of about 150, could all the top 4 or 5 swap around depending on the area of boxes bring opened?

LuckyGent88

Have been abroad for past 2 months and coming home shortly but if the people have voted McDonagh in I think I'll move again.
Great stuff from Harry so far anyway. Looks like breen, Doolittle and Harty with fight for last one.

Clareman

11:52. 92 of 153 boxes tallied. Here’s how it looks. Timmy Dooley (5678), Michael Harty (4881), Pat Breen (3967), Michael McDonagh (3439), Joe Carey (3359), Michael McNamara (2373), Noeleen Moran (2257), Clare Colleran-Molloy (1686), Ann Norton (1205), Mary Howard (1144), Fergal Smith (1032), Ian Lynch (656), Niamh O’Brien (651), Richard Cahill (465), André Sibo Hakizimana (45), Dermot Mulqueen (31).

Clareman

It doesn't look like anyone is going to get near the quota so it'll be a long night for the counters.

I'd imagine everyone under 1,000 will get eliminated in the first round, I would imagine that both FF and FG will be hoping that their lady candidates don't get any transfers as this could really help their other candidates.

My take on it at this stage is Dooley is in, that Harty won't get many transfers until Norton is eliminated, if he doesn't get in on that transfer he will probably get in without meeting the quota. Breen, Carey and McDonagh will be hoping for their running mates to get knocked out, I'd say McDonagh will probably get more transfers from non-FG transfers and will probably benefit from the likes of Smith and Moran being knocked out, I don't know where McNamara will get the transfers from.

At a punt I would say it could be Dooley, Harty, Breen and Carey and that's just assuming that Howard gets knocked out first

ger664

Final Tallies attached From Clare Courier

Dooley (FF) 10059;
Harty (Ind) 8454;
Breen (FG) 6576
Carey (FG) 5940
McDonagh (FF) 4750
McNamara (Lab) 4394
Moran (SF) 4095
Colleran Molloy (FF) 2729
Howard (FG) 2058
Norton (Ind) 2202
Smith (GP) 1666
Lynch (Ind) 1465
Cahill (Ind) 733
Hakizimana (Ind)n 63
Mulqueen (Ind) 63

If FG get 2 over the line Enda owes Tony Mulcahy a pint or Two.

Breen is not exactly safe on those figures as Carey may pickup a bigger % of transfers from Ennis candidates and Howard.

Malty will need a chunk of McNamara's transfers which is possible given the Hillary factor.

A long night ahead.

Clareman

Final tallies are in.Dooley (FF) 10059; Harty (Ind) 8454; Breen (FG) 6576; Carey (FG) 5123; McDonagh (FF) 4750; McNamara (Lab) 4394; Moran (SF) 4095; Colleran Molloy (FF) 2729; Howard (FG) 2058; Smith (GP) 1666; Lynch (Ind) 1465; Cahill (Ind) 733; Hakizimana (Ind)n 63; Mulqueen (Ind) 63.

I'm going to guess that everyone below 2,000 will get eliminated, that'll mean that there's be 1,666 Green and 2,324 Ind. votes to go around. My guess would be that the GP and Lynch votes will go to Malty and Harty and the rest will be a FG vote, might even favour Carey. After that I would say that the Howard vote will go to Carey and the Colleran vote to Dooley with transfers from there (if possible) to Malty.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Dooley, Harty, Carey & McDonagh, the FG director of elections isn't exactly instilling confidence in their management of the vote

“By accident or design the Fine Gael front two are better balanced” according to Fine Gael’s Martin Lynch.

http://clareherald.com/2016/02/clare-ge16-live-blog/

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

If FG get 2 over the line Enda owes Tony Mulcahy a pint or Two.

If FG get 2 over the line with 13,757 votes compared to FF's 17,538 then the county manager will get a job in HQ and the FF manager should be shot.

Clareman

By they way, Timmy Dooley has been seen as a potential future leader of FF, if they ever get to power he'll be looking for a seat at the top table, if he doesn't bring another candidate with him AGAIN it'll be a very poor reflection on him.

irish coldplayer

Clareman wrote: »

By they way, Timmy Dooley has been seen as a potential future leader of FF, if they ever get to power he'll be looking for a seat at the top table, if he doesn't bring another candidate with him AGAIN it'll be a very poor reflection on him.

Could also be interpreted as poor running mate selection by FF..

Clareman

irish coldplayer wrote: »

Could also be interpreted as poor running mate selection by FF..

It could be seen as alot of different things, as the long standing TD he would have been expected to take the lead to bringing someone with him.

Lady Chatterton

Just listening to Senator Martin Conway on Clare FM. He has been very quiet in the last few weeks and I don't remember endorsing any of the FG candidates on social media or elsewhere.

Today, he is an expert, he was giving chapter and verse on how and why his party got it so wrong.

crazyguy01

2 in and 2 to go, anybody else stay up this late thinking it would be over and now a re-count, looking forward to tomorrow for confirmation of what I would expect Breen & Carey to join Dooley and Harty....

littlesthobo

MrsD007 wrote: »

Just listening to Senator Martin Conway on Clare FM. He has been very quiet in the last few weeks and I don't remember endorsing any of the FG candidates on social media or elsewhere.

Today, he is an expert, he was giving chapter and verse on how and why his party got it so wrong

Martin was probably disappointed not to get to run himself and i know he did an interview in clare people last week with his election predictions. I think you're bieng a bit harsh. I didnt hear the interview but if asked his opinion hes entitled to give it and he is not the only fg party member questioning their strategy.

And seriously, roll eyes, not funny

JCX BXC

Recount begins around now.

Clareman

Assuming McNamara gets knocked out it'll be interesting to see where their transfers go, you would have thought that his votes would either go to another East Clare candidate or to FG, I wouldn't have thought Malty would be very transfer friendly to McNamara.

Assuming the 2 FG candidates get past the post I would consider this election as a failure for FF in Clare, to get that much of a vote and only 1 TD is extremely poor vote management.

Clareman

Carnacalla wrote: »

Recount begins around now.

The checking of votes start now, the decision on whether a recount is needed or not will take place around 1.

Clareman

Recount has been called off, 1 more count to go

Lady Chatterton

littlesthobo wrote: »

Martin was probably disappointed not to get to run himself and i know he did an interview in clare people last week with his election predictions. I think you're bieng a bit harsh. I didnt hear the interview but if asked his opinion hes entitled to give it and he is not the only fg party member questioning their strategy.

And seriously, roll eyes, not funny

Martin should have gone Independent as he has been behaving like an opposition spokesman for the last year or so. He is not a team player, he didn't appear to make any effort to support his colleagues during the election. He was very active on social media for ages but once the election was called his silence was deafening. I reckon he'll struggle to get re-elected to the Seanad. Mulcahy on the other hand has shown himself to be a party man so he probably has a good chance.

Clareman

Carey & Breen are through without reaching the quota

Lady Chatterton

It's a big come down for Pat Breen to be elected without reaching the quota.

littlesthobo

MrsD007 wrote: »

he didn't appear to make any effort to support his colleagues during the election.

Pat breen disagrees with you on that point.https://www.facebook.com/PatBreenTD/posts/1030949456963039

My big problem with your post was your mocking of his disability. You ignored this in your reply, poor form, especially from a moderator

Lady Chatterton

littlesthobo wrote: »

My big problem with your post was your mocking of his disability. You ignored this in your reply, poor form, especially from a moderator

I've never mocked anyone with a disability in my life, I was brought up better than that. Which candidate are you referring by the way?

littlesthobo

MrsD007 wrote: »

I've never mocked anyone with a disability in my life, I was brought up better than that. Which candidate are you referring by the way?

Maybe i took it up wrong but editing your post in relation to senator Conway to add roll eyes seemed to me to be a subtle dig at his disability.

Lady Chatterton

littlesthobo wrote: »

Maybe i took it up wrong but editing your post in relation to senator Conway to add roll eyes seemed to me to be a subtle dig at his disability.

I want to knock this on the head now, I was NOT mocking Sen. Conway, you did take me up wrong. The rolly eyes emoticon on Boards.ie implies sarcasm and nothing else.

I never judge people on their gender, race, ability/disability, sexual orientation, religion or age.

Edit:

I've removed the rolly eyes emotion (which implies sarcasm) from my original post as it has caused you distress

JCX BXC

So, the change from 2011 being Dr.Harty instead of Michael Mc Namara?
Change for the better imo.

littlesthobo

MrsD007 wrote: »

I want to knock this on the head now, I was NOT mocking Sen. Conway, you did take me up wrong. The rolly eyes emoticon on Boards.ie implies sarcasm and nothing else.

I never judge people on their gender, race, ability/disability, sexual orientation, religion or age.

Edit:

I've removed the rolly eyes emotion (which implies sarcasm) from my original post as it has caused you distress

Thank you for clearing that up. On reading back im sure you could see how i would have taken it up that way. I showed the post to a couple of people who felt the same as me. Im not one to go out of my way to create faux outrage and to be fair having seen you post here regularly over the years it would not be something that i would have expected from you.

littlesthobo

Carnacalla wrote: »

So, the change from 2011 being Dr.Harty instead of Michael Mc Namara?
Change for the better imo.

Personally im disappointed for Mike Mc. Dr. Harty is a very likeable guy but will achieve nothing in opposition. I hope he can prove me wrong

elastico

littlesthobo wrote: »

Personally im disappointed for Mike Mc. Dr. Harty is a very likeable guy but will achieve nothing in opposition. I hope he can prove me wrong

Unfortunately we are now entering a crazy situation where every constituency needs to elect an independent so that if there is a balance of power they may be able to something for the area.

They have gone 1 better in Kerry electing 2 Healy Rae's

This is a legacy from the Bertie Ahern era when he bought off a bunch of independents.

Lady Chatterton

littlesthobo wrote: »

Thank you for clearing that up. On reading back im sure you could see how i would have taken it up that way. I showed the post to a couple of people who felt the same as me. Im not one to go out of my way to create faux outrage and to be fair having seen you post here regularly over the years it would not be something that i would have expected from you.

Thank you littlethobo.

I now accept how it could cause offence but I can honestly say I never even thought of his visual impairment when I was typing or editing my post. It didn't enter my mind until you pointed it out.

JCX BXC

littlesthobo wrote: »

Personally im disappointed for Mike Mc. Dr. Harty is a very likeable guy but will achieve nothing in opposition. I hope he can prove me wrong

Opposition only counts for so much. Look at the Healy-Rays in Kerry, they have gotten ALOT for the county, with a strong independent here (Which hopefully Harty is) we could really improve the services here.

Akrasia

elastico wrote: »

Unfortunately we are now entering a crazy situation where every constituency needs to elect an independent so that if there is a balance of power they may be able to something for the area.

They have gone 1 better in Kerry electing 2 Healy Rae's

This is a legacy from the Bertie Ahern era when he bought off a bunch of independents.

I think this attitude stems from the historic powerlessness of our parliament. With the party whips system, cabinet makes all the decisions and parliament does nothing but rubber stamp whatever cabinet says.

I think electing so many independents from so many different political agendas, means we actually have a chance to have a minority government where the parliament can actually decide which legislation to pass.

Wouldn't it be nice for our government to have to actually debate legislation and have to convince the Dail to pass it?

Clareman

Akrasia wrote: »

I think this attitude stems from the historic powerlessness of our parliament. With the party whips system, cabinet makes all the decisions and parliament does nothing but rubber stamp whatever cabinet says.

I think electing so many independents from so many different political agendas, means we actually have a chance to have a minority government where the parliament can actually decide which legislation to pass.

Wouldn't it be nice for our government to have to actually debate legislation and have to convince the Dail to pass it?

We have a trifecta government which allows this, the Dail should be the debate center, the Senate the reviews and the President the final reviewer.

BnB

Carnacalla wrote: »

So, the change from 2011 being Dr.Harty instead of Michael Mc Namara?
Change for the better imo.

IMO, it is a waste of a seat for Clare. Harty will have as much power and ability to do anything as..... well as myself.

I agree with every one of Harty's principals but I just don't think that going into the dail as an independent will achieve anything.

Mind you, on the other hand, given the way the numbers stacked up in the end, taking Harty out of it would have given the seat to Malty. And without getting too personal about it, I would rather leave the seat empty than give it to Malty.

Clareman

I love the idea of a GP in every village but I'd love to know how that's going to happen, there's a village in New Zealand offering massive salary and holidays to get a candidate and it's going unfilled, how are people going to sell being a GP in the middle of nowhere in cr@p weather.

Clareman

If you want to debate drug use, find a forum, the Clare forum is not the correct arena. If you want to debate the impact of drugs on society, find a forum, the Clare forum is not the correct arena. If you want to take pot shots at each other, find somewhere else, the Clare forum is not the correct arena.

This is the Clare Regional Forum, and this thread is about the General Election 2016 in Clare, if you want to discuss other stuff find the correct arena.

crazyguy01

Getting away from the result for a moment... I walked a road this evening and I was amazed all the posters from all the candidates were gone already... I was actually praising them in my mind. It is a busy main road into town. Then I keep walking and dozens of plastic ties from the posters all along the road... Not good across the board!

JCX BXC

The only ones down here in West Clare are the ones that were blown away last night.

Clareman

There's massive fines for leaving posters up after a certain date, if there's rubbish left behind then it's a disgrace.

crazyguy01

Clareman wrote:

There's massive fines for leaving posters up after a certain date, if there's rubbish left behind then it's a disgrace.

Posters are one thing but the ties can't be traced

ger664

Do they still publish how each polling station voted anywhere ?

crazyguy01

ger664 wrote:

Do they still publish how each polling station voted anywhere ?

Not sure if they put it on their website but it was all in the Clare People yesterday. Every box in every station all listed.

tatoo

crazyguy01 wrote: »

Not sure if they put it on their website but it was all in the Clare People yesterday. Every box in every station all listed.

Yes, the complete breakdown of the FG/FF tally, which was remarkably accurate is in Tuesdays Clare People.

tatoo

crazyguy01 wrote: »

Getting away from the result for a moment... I walked a road this evening and I was amazed all the posters from all the candidates were gone already... I was actually praising them in my mind. It is a busy main road into town. Then I keep walking and dozens of plastic ties from the posters all along the road... Not good across the board!

In around Shannon town today and the only ones left up are Dr.Hartys and Noleen Moran's, and a renegade Pat Breen one.

JCX BXC

Ian Lynch everywhere around Kilrush too.

Clareman

Carnacalla wrote: »

Ian Lynch everywhere around Kilrush too.

Start taking photos and sending them in so
http://www.environ.ie/environment/waste/litter/election-posters, €150 per poster.

tatoo

Clareman wrote: »

Start taking photos and sending them in so
http://www.environ.ie/environment/waste/litter/election-posters, €150 per poster.

From when do the fines kick in ?

ElNino

tatoo wrote: »

From when do the fines kick in ?

Candidates have 7 days to take down their election posters so I guess that means that the fines kick in from tomorrow.

Clareman

Midnight tonight

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/friday-midnight-deadline-looms-for-removal-of-ge16-posters-1.2559020

Tom44

ALL TIES SHOULD BE REMOVED. by the orignal poster / party, please.

But the last poster to be removed should also remove all the other ties as they were slow to get out there. if there's some left.

Bit ironic candidates having the opinion that's " it's somebody else's problem"



KEEP CLARE CLEAN