General Election 2016 - Clare

Lady Chatterton

mel.b wrote: »

MrsD007, where did you get the figure about the HSE service?

The HSE published this information, it's a matter of public record. I actually underestimated the figure, the intervention service in Clare received a budget of €1.8 million. These figures are a couple of years old so they probably increased since.

It's not providing value for money. If Ann Norton is unsuccessful in her bid to get elected, the HSE could do worse than hire her to manage their service or even better, they could outsource all their intervention services to Clare Crusaders. They could deliver even more services if they had the budget to hire more staff.

I'm conscious I'm going off topic but I wanted to answer your question.

Lady Chatterton

Lampost Gazer wrote: »

Clare FM candidates debate is on at 9.15am. With 16 candidates taking part, it should be ....messy.

I've listened to all the Clare FM debates, I thought Gavin Grace did a decent job.

tatoo

lebowsky wrote: »

Ultimately you and your vote is the watchdog not Mick Wallace etc who may have their own agenda.
An election is your chance to cast judgement on our politicians.
I spent the last couple of days in Kerry due to work. The feeling there is that both Michael and Danny Healy-Rae may be elected. Talking to a couple of people they talk about how much they get done for their community (roads, medical cards etc). I had to bite my tongue as the reality is that the tax payers of Clare and everywhere else had paid for this and suffered with lack of services while their father (and Michael Lowry) propped up a failing government.
What would happen if every constituency voted in a healy-rae or their ilk where would the money come from for all the stroke politics?
By the way this is in no way comparing the independent candidates here to those I mentioned, at least some of them are taking a national outlook regarding healthcare etc.
This is a general election to decide on how the country is run. Local politics should be the remit of county councils.

Sorry for the rant but after a couple of days at looking at the healy-rae's posters and their promises has made me depressed over the state of our nations politics.

It would depress you, but that's democracy for you,
The people of South Kerry are happy with pothole fixing for themselves at the expense of the National interest, the people of North Tipp don't mind having an absolute shyster representing them - as long as he can pull an oul stroke in their favour every now and then, here we are so happy with a Doolittle that has done nothing that he will top the poll.

buck65

Is Joe Carey wearing lipstick on his posters?

dee_mc

buck65 wrote: »

Is Joe Carey wearing lipstick on his posters?

I've been saying that since they went up! Sure at least he made the effort :P

blowin3

dee_mc wrote: »

I've been saying that since they went up! Sure at least he made the effort :P

Maybe he is looking for the LGBT vote in Clare. I think he will need them all to cross the line NOT!

crazyguy01

According to The Clare Herald (crap at links):

41 boxes opened #GE16 T Dooley (2603), M Harty (2276), Pat Breen (1851), Joe Carey (1439), Michael McDonagh (1202), Michael McNamara (1019)

That's how it seems to look so far, didn't expect Harty to be where he is!

crazyguy01

#GE16 41 boxes N Moran (931), Colleran-Molloy (750), A Norton (416), M Howard (356), F Smith (340), Ian Lynch (326), N O'Brien (310),

Clareman

That's some vote for Harty he will benefit from Norton's transfers, Carey will benefit from Howard's.

I really didn't expect Malty to poll that high

blowin3

Clareman wrote: »

That's some vote for Harty he will benefit from Norton's transfers, Carey will benefit from Howard's.

I really didn't expect Malty to poll that high

I would agree with that synopsis. Most that voted Ann Norton would have given a vote to Harty myself included. He ran a good campaign fair dues to him.

ger664

Have many of the Ennis/Kilrush boxes been opened ?
Really expected a better showing from Mary Howard and Ian Lynch.

Looking at those Figure it would look like only Pat Breen from the Govt Parties will be retuned.

crazyguy01

Looking back, that is 40 boxes out of about 150, could all the top 4 or 5 swap around depending on the area of boxes bring opened?

LuckyGent88

Have been abroad for past 2 months and coming home shortly but if the people have voted McDonagh in I think I'll move again.
Great stuff from Harry so far anyway. Looks like breen, Doolittle and Harty with fight for last one.

Clareman

11:52. 92 of 153 boxes tallied. Here’s how it looks. Timmy Dooley (5678), Michael Harty (4881), Pat Breen (3967), Michael McDonagh (3439), Joe Carey (3359), Michael McNamara (2373), Noeleen Moran (2257), Clare Colleran-Molloy (1686), Ann Norton (1205), Mary Howard (1144), Fergal Smith (1032), Ian Lynch (656), Niamh O’Brien (651), Richard Cahill (465), André Sibo Hakizimana (45), Dermot Mulqueen (31).

Clareman

It doesn't look like anyone is going to get near the quota so it'll be a long night for the counters.

I'd imagine everyone under 1,000 will get eliminated in the first round, I would imagine that both FF and FG will be hoping that their lady candidates don't get any transfers as this could really help their other candidates.

My take on it at this stage is Dooley is in, that Harty won't get many transfers until Norton is eliminated, if he doesn't get in on that transfer he will probably get in without meeting the quota. Breen, Carey and McDonagh will be hoping for their running mates to get knocked out, I'd say McDonagh will probably get more transfers from non-FG transfers and will probably benefit from the likes of Smith and Moran being knocked out, I don't know where McNamara will get the transfers from.

At a punt I would say it could be Dooley, Harty, Breen and Carey and that's just assuming that Howard gets knocked out first

ger664

Final Tallies attached From Clare Courier

Dooley (FF) 10059;
Harty (Ind) 8454;
Breen (FG) 6576
Carey (FG) 5940
McDonagh (FF) 4750
McNamara (Lab) 4394
Moran (SF) 4095
Colleran Molloy (FF) 2729
Howard (FG) 2058
Norton (Ind) 2202
Smith (GP) 1666
Lynch (Ind) 1465
Cahill (Ind) 733
Hakizimana (Ind)n 63
Mulqueen (Ind) 63

If FG get 2 over the line Enda owes Tony Mulcahy a pint or Two.

Breen is not exactly safe on those figures as Carey may pickup a bigger % of transfers from Ennis candidates and Howard.

Malty will need a chunk of McNamara's transfers which is possible given the Hillary factor.

A long night ahead.

Clareman

Final tallies are in.Dooley (FF) 10059; Harty (Ind) 8454; Breen (FG) 6576; Carey (FG) 5123; McDonagh (FF) 4750; McNamara (Lab) 4394; Moran (SF) 4095; Colleran Molloy (FF) 2729; Howard (FG) 2058; Smith (GP) 1666; Lynch (Ind) 1465; Cahill (Ind) 733; Hakizimana (Ind)n 63; Mulqueen (Ind) 63.

I'm going to guess that everyone below 2,000 will get eliminated, that'll mean that there's be 1,666 Green and 2,324 Ind. votes to go around. My guess would be that the GP and Lynch votes will go to Malty and Harty and the rest will be a FG vote, might even favour Carey. After that I would say that the Howard vote will go to Carey and the Colleran vote to Dooley with transfers from there (if possible) to Malty.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Dooley, Harty, Carey & McDonagh, the FG director of elections isn't exactly instilling confidence in their management of the vote

“By accident or design the Fine Gael front two are better balanced” according to Fine Gael’s Martin Lynch.

http://clareherald.com/2016/02/clare-ge16-live-blog/

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

If FG get 2 over the line Enda owes Tony Mulcahy a pint or Two.

If FG get 2 over the line with 13,757 votes compared to FF's 17,538 then the county manager will get a job in HQ and the FF manager should be shot.

Clareman

By they way, Timmy Dooley has been seen as a potential future leader of FF, if they ever get to power he'll be looking for a seat at the top table, if he doesn't bring another candidate with him AGAIN it'll be a very poor reflection on him.

irish coldplayer

Clareman wrote: »

By they way, Timmy Dooley has been seen as a potential future leader of FF, if they ever get to power he'll be looking for a seat at the top table, if he doesn't bring another candidate with him AGAIN it'll be a very poor reflection on him.

Could also be interpreted as poor running mate selection by FF..

Clareman

irish coldplayer wrote: »

Could also be interpreted as poor running mate selection by FF..

It could be seen as alot of different things, as the long standing TD he would have been expected to take the lead to bringing someone with him.

Lady Chatterton

Just listening to Senator Martin Conway on Clare FM. He has been very quiet in the last few weeks and I don't remember endorsing any of the FG candidates on social media or elsewhere.

Today, he is an expert, he was giving chapter and verse on how and why his party got it so wrong.

crazyguy01

2 in and 2 to go, anybody else stay up this late thinking it would be over and now a re-count, looking forward to tomorrow for confirmation of what I would expect Breen & Carey to join Dooley and Harty....

littlesthobo

MrsD007 wrote: »

Just listening to Senator Martin Conway on Clare FM. He has been very quiet in the last few weeks and I don't remember endorsing any of the FG candidates on social media or elsewhere.

Today, he is an expert, he was giving chapter and verse on how and why his party got it so wrong

Martin was probably disappointed not to get to run himself and i know he did an interview in clare people last week with his election predictions. I think you're bieng a bit harsh. I didnt hear the interview but if asked his opinion hes entitled to give it and he is not the only fg party member questioning their strategy.

And seriously, roll eyes, not funny

JCX BXC

Recount begins around now.

Clareman

Assuming McNamara gets knocked out it'll be interesting to see where their transfers go, you would have thought that his votes would either go to another East Clare candidate or to FG, I wouldn't have thought Malty would be very transfer friendly to McNamara.

Assuming the 2 FG candidates get past the post I would consider this election as a failure for FF in Clare, to get that much of a vote and only 1 TD is extremely poor vote management.

Clareman

Carnacalla wrote: »

Recount begins around now.

The checking of votes start now, the decision on whether a recount is needed or not will take place around 1.

Clareman

Recount has been called off, 1 more count to go

Lady Chatterton

littlesthobo wrote: »

Martin was probably disappointed not to get to run himself and i know he did an interview in clare people last week with his election predictions. I think you're bieng a bit harsh. I didnt hear the interview but if asked his opinion hes entitled to give it and he is not the only fg party member questioning their strategy.

And seriously, roll eyes, not funny

Martin should have gone Independent as he has been behaving like an opposition spokesman for the last year or so. He is not a team player, he didn't appear to make any effort to support his colleagues during the election. He was very active on social media for ages but once the election was called his silence was deafening. I reckon he'll struggle to get re-elected to the Seanad. Mulcahy on the other hand has shown himself to be a party man so he probably has a good chance.

Clareman

Carey & Breen are through without reaching the quota