Novelty Market Bet (Politics, UK {EU/Brexit} ) Should they stay, or should they go?

Rjd2

poa wrote: »

I can get on about 2 Euro with Coral these days.

2 Euro?:eek:

They must have you marked up as a mug so. :pac:


(joke:P)

poa

Rjd2 wrote: »

2 Euro?:eek:

They must have you marked up as a mug so. :pac:


(joke:P)

16 years of gambling and winning more than losing has meant most of the bookies have either closed my accounts or limited them to nothing now.
I just use Paddypower and Betfair exchange online these days.
I prefer depositing and withdrawing in cash, hence why I prefer PP to BE, as it takes time to withdraw to one's bank account.
The funny thing is, sometimes the traders will allow 2K on something high liability for them, but only 20 on something low liability.
What I can get on Betfair sportsbook is a joke, so not worth bothering with.
Currently I have 1K Bremain, 1K Fury, 2K Clinton, and will top up on Fury when Bremain delivers Friday. But what frustrates me is only being able to get on 73.50 on Cannon. I want to get 2K on him ideally as its nice odds of 4.3 with PP. So it's looking like a drive to the North this weekend then to lump on over the counter with a few bookies. I had no problem getting 1K on CBB with them before, no questions asked. UK bookies seem more willing to take bigger bets.

poa

After Jo Cox murder, and Farage's racist immigrant poster; our Bremain jolly was romping home in the final furlong in a canter.
As if that wasn't enough to secure victory in this 2 horse race.
But now our jolly is home and hosed thanks to Baroness Sayeeda Warsi defecting from Brexit to Bremain at a crucial time.
So that is the Muslim electorate vote in the UK sewn up.
Tory faithful+undecideds+Muslims, it's game over.
Never underestimate the effect of a defection like this when it comes to votes. The UK Muslims will come out and vote Bremain in force now.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-baroness-sayeeda-warsi-defects-from-leave-to-remain-a7090741.html

Farage really scored an own goal with that poster. His political career is over after Bremain wins.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poster-nigel-farage-polls-michael-gove-a7089946.html

poa

Down from 1.29 to 1.25 now across the board with Oddschecker.
Last chance to board the train to winnersville passengers, have your tickets ready.
I reckon Bremain drops to 1.2 or 1.22 tomorrow as more is lumped on.
Brexit probably drifts like a barge from 4.0 to 5.0

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/2079/RxHTuP.jpg

poa

Here’s a rundown of the key times to watch Thursday through early Friday morning.
7 a.m. Polling stations open
10 p.m. Polling stations close, no exit polls
Around 11:30 p.m. First announcements on voter turnout
12.30 a.m. Results expected for first counting areas
3-4 a.m. Results from half of the counting areas are in
Around 5 a.m. About 80% of counting areas have reported results
7 a.m. All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.
10 a.m. Paddypower opens for you to collect your winnings on Bremain.

poa

I see the odds on Bremain are 1.25 v 4.0 Brexit this morning.
47M Euro v 13M Euro backed on Betfair exchange respectively.
Cameron must have called Beckham and offered a knighthood in return for backing Bremain.
Sir David and Lady Victoria by the end of the year, you mark my words.
That's the UK football fan vote sewn up then.
Ask yourself this; 47M Euro Bremain v 13M Euro Brexit?
The smart money is lumping on the winner.
This is buying money.

4068ac1elhodqr

Indeed holding steady at 1.25, although still wouldn't be surprised of very last minute jitters just before market suspension. (888 just closed).
Think there was a minor glimpse of 6.0 for leavers.

The exchanges always show a lot more leverage than polls/markets, athough the markets this morning seem to have made their mind up early
6,250 break (6%+ over 5 days) to be seen shortly, and a possible 1.48 on Thurs against USD

#UsePens seems to be trending on social due to some theorists

Unless there is a silent revolt from the C1/C2&D (with biros in hand) across middle Eng, indeed extra shinny badges for all the actors involved.

Rjd2

Understandably, the remain price is absolutely collapsing when you look at the below polls, probably going to be 1/5 or so in the morning.

Favs lose obviously, but anybody who still thinks that this is hard to call, needs a lie down:P



Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 14m14 minutes ago
The final three phone polls
BMG 6% REMAIN lead
ORB 8% REMAIN lead
ComRes 8% REMAIN led
Just Ipsos to come

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/745725593493311488

4068ac1elhodqr

Well the markets sure had a good day 1.48 USD and around 6,300.
1.3 currently available at a couple of shops. SportingIndex though have closed the doors.
As with football and all other things it's not over until Merkel the large lady sings.

ianburke

media saying it's still too close to call.

Rjd2

ianburke wrote: »

media saying it's still too close to call.

Yeah, upon reflection saying its a done deal is premature, but think those late polls tonight and the betting market on BF really is not good news for Leave

Although I scolded people last week when they said that Italy were no value v Ireland, so I can be as wrong as anyone:o:pac:

4068ac1elhodqr

Agree there's so many factors in this unprecedented event, Boris (surprisingly) did a decent appeal on Sky tonight liking it to Independence Day.

Even the North which is presumed to be 1.03 for remain, had their main party take out a 4-page wraparound advertisement in the Metro (4m commuter views). Polls with typical sample sizes of 2,000, need an air of caution compared to the silent/silenced 40m circa mid-lower-England Tesco/Adsa shopping C&D's making their daily grind. Heart vs Head.

Hypothetically, even now if you went 3,000 @1.33 and 1,000 @4.33, the most you could loose would be 10 notes, or gain 330.

mansize

Betfair offering an enhanced 2.5 for 50.01-55 to vote REMAIN
(Max bet prob too low for you guys)

ianburke

1/20 back out to 2/7 now

now 4/6!

Bandana boy

Big results for leave there in Newcastle and Sunderland , remain backers should be sweating a bit now

ianburke

Bandana boy wrote: »

Big results for leave there in Newcastle and Sunderland , remain backers should be sweating a bit now

sharp drop in the pound. sky news is the place to be tonight!

4068ac1elhodqr

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

... May even be worth seeing what happens in the 12.30am Sunderland EI/1st result, they should have 6pt lead for a tie to occur.

#sweatyfxtraders could be trending shortly, a great name for a rock band also.

4068ac1elhodqr

Think snapback is the popular term for this sort of thing, still early days Cameroon will be on the toilet for a while yet.

ianburke

exit is odds on now!

robertowjr

ianburke wrote: »

exit is odds on now!

Remain hit 2.7 odds seconds ago.

4068ac1elhodqr

Unprecedented swinging, it was around 8.0 few hours ago with Skybet.
Timing and patience appears to be the name of the game.

ianburke

it's madness altogether on betfair. remain went from 2.3 to 1.8 right after glasgow vote then back out to 2.2...it's now 1.9 again.

Mellor

lol, You can back both side >evens if you wait around and look in the right places.
Great times for anyone who laid bremain when it hit 1.2 :D:D:D

Mellor

50-55 remain is now odds on, thats grim

ianburke

poa wrote: »

I have 1K on Bremain now.

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/4381/0HsjV9.jpg

Last chance to get on the train to winnersville at 1.29

http://imageshack.com/a/img924/310/vzo6su.jpg

41M Euro backing Bremain on Betfair exchange. The money in the market knows.

http://imageshack.com/a/img924/1750/qqDJ6u.jpg

This is buying money.
A dead cert.

squeaky bum time it's out to 2.4 now. the money in the market hadn't a clue whether it wins or not

Mellor

ianburke wrote: »

squeaky bum time it's out to 2.4 now. the money in the market hadn't a clue whether it wins or not

Luckily for Walter Mitty, he probably had nothing on it

ianburke

Mellor wrote: »

Luckily for Walter Mitty, he probably had nothing on it

he did post the screenshots 2 500e bets on pp. it seems they are now deleted. peanuts in comparison to the 130,000,000 matched on betfair.

all but over now. remain 250/1 on betfair. out unbackable.

just goes to show there is never a dead cert. hope there wasn't too many who followed "poa". i put 40 on remain the last day for the interest at about 1/2 as i fancied they'd edge it. the media told us it would be close so am perplexed as to how remain was so short(sub 1.2) before any results were coming through.

mansize

Nicola Sturgeon: "Scotland has spoken - and spoken decisively.”

Bandana boy

Mellor wrote: »

Luckily for Walter Mitty, he probably had nothing on it

No doubt an insider will have warned him when Leave hit 6-1 and he got 7 figures on

Mellor

ianburke wrote: »

he did post the screenshots 2 500e bets on pp. it seems they are now deleted. peanuts in comparison to the 130,000,000 matched on betfair.

Meh, posting screenshots and then deleting them isn't huge evidence to be honest. Especially when somebody had been caught out in multiple lies

munster87

Mellor wrote: »

Meh, posting screenshots and then deleting them isn't huge evidence to be honest. Especially when somebody had been caught out in multiple lies

I wonder will night still follow day?

Gregk961

Pretty sure its the same guy who had "10k" on Boyhood to win best picture: http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057349636/1

Never seen somebody to devote hours of text to a 1.5 shot and it then to lose. Hilarious!

Harry Palmr

Poa is banned I see, and poor too.

duffman13

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Poa is banned I see, and poor too.

Only backs sure things, might throw a wedge on Klitschko as Fury is also a sure thing

Watching the volatility this morning in the betting markets was crazy. Some money to be made this morning when the numbers started rolling in.

Mellor

duffman13 wrote: »

Only backs sure things, might throw a wedge on Klitschko as Fury is also a sure thing

Watching the volatility this morning in the betting markets was crazy. Some money to be made this morning when the numbers started rolling in.

Hillary is in trouble

Mellor

munster87 wrote: »

I wonder will night still follow day?

I've no idea what that means. Maybe?

4068ac1elhodqr

Poa may want to re-think those large singles on Alex(BB), Clinton(USA) & Fury,
seems night doesn't follow day, and the only certain thing are death and taxes.

Think this may set a precedence for Scotland's independence, a NI border poll and even a Trump win across in the US.
Well done to anyone that played a long waiting game and picked off any value when/where available.

Bandana boy

Bjorn Strong Lever wrote: »

Poa may want to re-think those large singles on Alex(BB), Clinton(USA) & Fury,
seems night doesn't follow day, and the only certain thing are death and taxes.

What he does have in his favor is that they are not real

inforfun

MOD

Please stop discussing that guy.
He is banned, he is a re-reg (Mrs brown boys ring a bell?) so when he enters the arena again, just report him.

Thanks

Mellor

inforfun wrote: »

MOD

Please stop discussing that guy.
He is banned, he is a re-reg (Mrs brown boys ring a bell?) so when he enters the arena again, just report him.

Thanks

To be fair, it was obviously a re-reg/nonsense account from the start. I assumed he was one of the mods having a laugh :pac::pac:

inforfun

Mellor wrote: »

To be fair, it was obviously a re-reg/nonsense account from the start. I assumed he was one of the mods having a laugh :pac::pac:

MOD

We dont do humour

4068ac1elhodqr

Bookmakers are more sure than ever that Article 50 will never be triggered

So the Brexit appears just to have been a PR exercise, and bargaining chip at the wine & steak chit-chats over in Brussels.

Sure it could still go ahead if no ground is gained, and there could be valuable free-trade agreements with English speaking commonwealth countries such as Aus, Can, NZ, India, and possibly even China. But with a pro-remain leader and the establishment firmly hoping for remain this will be their main objective.

Sky Bet currently gives odds of just 2/1 of Article 50 happening in "2018 or later or not at all" — the shortest odds in the market.

Meanwhile over in France Marine Le Pen @4.5 could well become the next president the way things are going. Trump @3 in the US is a strong possibility also.