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4/10 under 35 yrs old renters could buy now

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    #32
    Captain Chaos
    Registered Users Posts: 11,174 ✭✭✭✭Captain Chaos


    6541 wrote: »
    If you can afford to hold back do because my opinion is the market is Fooked !

    I'm not too sure myself, alot of people are now being forced to buy as there is little to nothing left to rent in Dublin. That's what I see happening lately. Most of my friends and myself that didn't buy during the boom now have to move back home with the folks to save up as rents are too high to try and save.

    I'm sorry I didn't buy back when the banks were throwing money at people. Now I've only about 3 years left to make my move or be stuck with silly high rents for life. Alot of banks won't even look at you if you are over 35 now.


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    #33
    6541
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭6541


    Captain Chaos wrote: »
    I'm not too sure myself, alot of people are now being forced to buy as there is little to nothing left to rent in Dublin. That's what I see happening lately. Most of my friends and myself that didn't buy during the boom now have to move back home with the folks to save up as rents are too high to try and save.

    I'm sorry I didn't buy back when the banks were throwing money at people. Now I've only about 3 years left to make my move or be stuck with silly high rents for life. Alot of banks won't even look at you if you are over 35 now.

    I know what you mean - but there is a few things going on here, again all this is my opinion and it would be great to get a economist opinion. House price costs in Ireland have been manufactured upwards in order to clear the negative equity.

    I really believe we are on the cusp of a major crash in world economies. Ireland as an open economy is going to get hammered in first quarter 2017.

    So again if you are in a position to stay with parents and save I would. There is just too much uncertainly at the moment.


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    #34
    whiskeyman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭whiskeyman


    6541 wrote: »
    If you can afford to hold back do because my opinion is the market is Fooked !

    Hold back and do what?
    And in what way is the market 'fooked'?

    If you want to buy and can afford it, I don't see the benefit of 'holding back' as long as you've done the maths.


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    #35
    6541
    Registered Users Posts: 1,949 ✭✭✭6541


    whiskeyman wrote: »
    Hold back and do what?
    And in what way is the market 'fooked'?

    We have a very real housing crisis. where zero builds have happened in the last number of years. So therefore the market is wrong.
    Eventually houses will have to be built or they will have to release the repossessed houses so if you can hold back do.


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    #36
    whiskeyman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭whiskeyman


    6541 wrote: »
    We have a very real housing crisis. where zero builds have happened in the last number of years. So therefore the market is wrong.
    Eventually houses will have to be built or they will have to release the repossessed houses so if you can hold back do.

    But by that stage, the CB rules may be relaxed and credit could be more available, thus driving up prices in 'high demand' areas once again.
    You can't define the market as 'wrong' just because supply is very sluggish.

    Many simply have no other option but to 'hold back' as they try to gather a deposit, but I very much doubt anyone who has approval / funds and affordability is going to hold back.


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    #37
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    6541 wrote: »
    whiskeyman wrote: »
    Hold back and do what?
    And in what way is the market 'fooked'?

    We have a very real housing crisis. where zero builds have happened in the last number of years. So therefore the market is wrong.
    Eventually houses will have to be built or they will have to release the repossessed houses so if you can hold back do.
    Add your reply here.


    The market crashed 9 years ago. People have been on about these repossessed houses hitting the market and bringing prices down for years . These even if it were true that there is a sea of ideally located homes to come to the market would not make much difference. If your in Dublin renting a three bed home for your family thats 15k in rent per year... What your waiting for is costing you...


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    #38
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,995 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Add your reply here.


    The market crashed 9 years ago. People have been on about these repossessed houses hitting the market and bringing prices down for years . These even if it were true that there is a sea of ideally located homes to come to the market would not make much difference. If your in Dublin renting a three bed home for your family thats 15k in rent per year... What your waiting for is costing you...

    I paid 80 quid for a tap on Saturday and the whole day doing repairs on my MIL's house. Work which would costs most people 1k plus. 15K in rent is not equal to base mortgage payments without taking into account cost of ownership.


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    #39
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Was does 4/10 under 35s can buy a house even mean? 4/10 people under 35 have the minimum deposit on the minimum house with a salary to boot? Or have a sufficient deposit and salary to buy where they are currently renting? Or could get a loan from their parents to buy their dream home.

    If its based on the possibility of buying for working people i.e. 10% deposit on a 90k house in mullingar commuting to dublin, I would be amazed that only 40% of people under 35 have only 9k saved and a salary of under 30k. But equally i understand why someone renting and working in dublin wouldnt give that up to buy a place with a long commute to dublin.

    Equally, however, of all people aged under 35 a good proportion must be under 21, still in school or college, so no surprises that they cant afford to buy.

    Its a completely meaningless statistic IMO.
    Eugene Norman wrote: »
    He seems to be pushing a buy a house at all costs (rather than an appartment) but there's no evidence apartments don't sell on. All of these articles are agenda driven.

    That seems to be the gyst of what hes saying. That may be true as general advice, but looking at dublin today, houses are far more overpriced than apartments. Apartments in dublin citycentre, for example, are still getting yeilds of 7% plus. That cant be said for many suburban houses that i can see.


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    #40
    Damnyou
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭Damnyou


    Could I aford a mortgage on my own in Kilkenny/Waterford where I'm from absoloutly. Will I get a mortgage there while having to work in Dublin and pay rent as well? No as I would just be working for the house. If I get a decent paying job on the south east will I get a mortgage myself. Absolutely.


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    #41
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Skatedude wrote: »
    What a piece of rubbish article. a couple with 4500 net a month? What about reality? I'm single on a reasonable average tech wage of 30k gross. That means app 100k mortgage allowed based on the 3.5 times salary rule and You cannot buy anything for that?

    You can buy just not where you want to buy.

    If you want to buy somewhere you think you should live, get a promotion or move jobs.


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    #42
    riclad
    Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    You could maybe buy an old house or a 1bed apartment for 100k.There.s lots of houses under 200k on daft.ie,
    unless you are like it must be on the southside or else i,m not interested .


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    #43
    Heisenberg.
    Registered Users Posts: 7,541 ✭✭✭Heisenberg.


    This post has been deleted.


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    #44
    Mink
    Registered Users Posts: 2,260 ✭✭✭Mink


    Captain Chaos wrote: »
    Now I've only about 3 years left to make my move or be stuck with silly high rents for life. Alot of banks won't even look at you if you are over 35 now.

    Why is this and do you have any recent examples?


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    #45
    Cuddlesworth
    Registered Users Posts: 13,995 ✭✭✭✭Cuddlesworth


    Mink wrote: »
    Why is this and do you have any recent examples?

    It think he is referencing mortgage terms. Assuming 30 years as standard, banks would hesitate to offer one at 35(a fair number of people struggle to work in their mid 60's). Nothing stopping shorter terms.


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    #46
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    billymitchell wrote: »
    I'm 35 and can afford a mortgage now. But since I live in Dublin, i can onl afford a mortgage on a small 2/3 bed house. I am going to keep putting my savings away for another few month while house prices continue to fall off and try afford myself a house I want to live in for life rather than just buying a starter home just for the sake of "getting on the ladder".

    Do you really think prices are going to fall off?I agree the rate of growth is slowing, but I don't think prices will actually go down anytime soon, especially not in better areas.


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    #47
    whiskeyman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭whiskeyman


    SarahMollie wrote: »
    Do you really think prices are going to fall off?I agree the rate of growth is slowing, but I don't think prices will actually go down anytime soon, especially not in better areas.

    I'm seeing a lot of price drops on asking prices at the moment in 'decent' areas.
    The CB rules are really hitting in now I feel.


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    #48
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    whiskeyman wrote: »
    I'm seeing a lot of price drops on asking prices at the moment in 'decent' areas.
    The CB rules are really hitting in now I feel.

    I'd be more inclined to go via the PPR - the property websites can be full of awful nonsense. Also some vendors are just greedy and need time to realise that they can't simply add 15% to whatever a similar house sold for a year previously.

    I agree that the rules are having an impact but there are still significant supply constraints in Dublin. Rents are still rising. I know a lot of people who are just being delayed by the rules, but still intend to buy.

    Also, I think the volumes of sales actually going through is still on the floor. Its hard to read much into anything based on such a low volume of transactions.

    I bought last year and the main reason was that my repayments are less than my rent. Capital gains are not a priority for me, as I'll always need a roof over my head.


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    #49
    Ray Palmer
    Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I Am The Law wrote: »
    Houses are too expensive, property owners are trying to pass on boom time mistakes to the next generation of buyers. People who are prudent at this point are to be congratulated.

    I think you are missing the full meaning of supply and demand. Prices have to be high enough for supply to provide it at a price.


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    #50
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Heisenberg. wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    That's an excellent strategy. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I had the debt load some of my peers do.


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    #51
    gaius c
    Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    I think you are missing the full meaning of supply and demand. Prices have to be high enough for supply to provide it at a price.

    Urgh. We're back to this nonsense again.


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    #52
    The Mulk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,308 ✭✭✭The Mulk


    gaius c wrote: »
    That's an excellent strategy. I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if I had the debt load some of my peers do.

    I think it's all relative, buy now LTV of 80%, 30 year mortgage, or buy in 5 years LTV 65% 25 year mortgage.
    Repayments will be more or less the same.
    House prices may rise or they may fall.Who's to say.


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    #53
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    I think with the new FG government to come in prices will rise a little further.


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    #54
    athtrasna
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,420 ✭✭✭✭athtrasna


    Mod note

    This thread is straying into Property Market thread territory. Please think about where you're posting. Thanks


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    #55
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    I think you are missing the full meaning of supply and demand. Prices have to be high enough for supply to provide it at a price.

    This inst pure supply and demand though.

    This is supply and demand +speculation (developers/land owners sitting on sites waiting for prices to go up before they lift a finger) + state interference (CB rules)

    Bottom line is though, everyone needs a roof over their heads and that costs money. Weigh up the pros and cons based on your circumstances and decide what works best for you, rather than trying to be an armchair economist.

    - can you afford the repayments?
    - is it a property that you can see yourself happy in for the medium term at least?
    - if you were to lose your job, is there other employment in the area?
    - how to the repayments compare to rent in the area?
    - can you handle the repayments if interest rates were to rise?
    - are you anticipating changes in your family circumstances in the coming years?
    - can you afford all the associated costs as well as the mortgage?

    If you're still comfortable, then go for it. Too much sitting on the fence can also be a false economy.


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    #56
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 983 ✭✭✭Greyian


    The Mulk wrote: »
    I think it's all relative, buy now LTV of 80%, 30 year mortgage, or buy in 5 years LTV 65% 25 year mortgage.
    Repayments will be more or less the same.
    House prices may rise or they may fall.Who's to say.

    Assuming the same house price, the repayments would be very different.
    Let's imagine you are buying a house for €300,000. That means you would need a mortgage of €240k now, on a 30 year term, or €195,000 in 5 years, on a 25 year term.

    Your monthly repayment if you buy now with an 80% mortgage would be €1077.71/month. So you'd repay a total of €387,975, plus the €60k deposit, so just under €450,000.
    Your monthly repayment if you buy in 5 years, with a 65% mortgage, would be €976.22/month. So you'd repay a total of €292,866, plus the €105k deposit, so just under €400,000.


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    #57
    The Mulk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,308 ✭✭✭The Mulk


    Greyian wrote: »
    Assuming the same house price, the repayments would be very different.
    Let's imagine you are buying a house for €300,000. That means you would need a mortgage of €240k now, on a 30 year term, or €195,000 in 5 years, on a 25 year term.

    Your monthly repayment if you buy now with an 80% mortgage would be €1077.71/month. So you'd repay a total of €387,975, plus the €60k deposit, so just under €450,000.
    Your monthly repayment if you buy in 5 years, with a 65% mortgage, would be €976.22/month. So you'd repay a total of €292,866, plus the €105k deposit, so just under €400,000.
    So you save approx 100 a month or 50k on the mortgage lifetime but end up paying 5 years rent while you save the bigger deposit, if prices go up you lose out, drop and you're quid's in.
    If I was in that position again I'd still buy over renting


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    #58
    slowjoe17
    Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭slowjoe17


    zzxx wrote: »
    I want to buy but stupidly bought a house with someone 15 years ago. Relationship didn't work out, he kept the house. I left with 5k. Now I'm not a first time buyer so don't get any incentives AND have to come up with 20% deposit on my own while renting. There should be incentives for people who don't have property not just first time buyers. That's why I can't buy right now but saving hard

    Am I the only person that thinks this is unfair?

    Shouldn't the 10% central bank rule on deposits apply to first-time-buyers and those who do not currently own a property?


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    #59
    Ray Palmer
    Registered Users Posts: 8,394 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    SarahMollie wrote: »
    This inst pure supply and demand though.

    This is supply and demand +speculation (developers/land owners sitting on sites waiting for prices to go up before they lift a finger) + state interference (CB rules)

    .

    Sorry but the additional factors you are mentioning are determining supply. That is just how it works the same way if you were manufacturing something with high production costs. It doesn't matter that people would buy at a lower price supply won't provide for it so demand hasn't reached the right price point.

    Restrictions on mortgage lending may be restricting demand price so supply doesn't rise. Still all supply and demand theory working and there is nothing un-pure about it.


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    #60
    SarahMollie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,843 ✭✭✭SarahMollie


    Ray Palmer wrote: »
    Sorry but the additional factors you are mentioning are determining supply. That is just how it works the same way if you were manufacturing something with high production costs. It doesn't matter that people would buy at a lower price supply won't provide for it so demand hasn't reached the right price point.

    Restrictions on mortgage lending may be restricting demand price so supply doesn't rise. Still all supply and demand theory working and there is nothing un-pure about it.

    Actually I've studied Economics in college so I do slightly know what I'm talking about. Economic theories are prefaced on the assumption of a completely free market.

    Factors such as Government regulation are always called out for note separately to demonstrate their effect on the standard demand curve. Further, Economics is a social science, so factors around human behavior are also considered.

    I was responding to someone who said it was simply demand v supply. Its not. The influencing factors have to be called out and explored to have any grasp of the market.

    If it was pure supply and demand as you claimed, then prices would be allowed to climb to meet the price dictated by the market. The CB rules have stopped this climb. This is market interference.

    Where you have market interference - you do not have "pure" supply and demand.

    Anyhow, back to the purpose of this thread.

    Its a nonsense article IMO.

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.


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    #61
    Michael D Not Higgins
    Registered Users Posts: 7,223 ✭✭✭Michael D Not Higgins


    SarahMollie wrote: »
    Its a nonsense article IMO.

    Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    The article references a 'recent ESRI' report but not which one and I can't find a related article in the recent publications on the ESRI website. The closest I can find is from December and is titled "A Review of Housing Supply Policies". It covers the regulation and supply strategies but doesn't have any mention of the 4/10 stat or anything about the consumer demand.
    http://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2015WIN_SA_Morley.pdf


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