Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

homer911

Thought this was worth sharing..


http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

BoatMad

homer911 wrote: »

Thought this was worth sharing..


http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-ev-oil-crisis/

2024 + is a fair ways aways, Ill have free travel !

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

2024 + is a fair ways aways, Ill have free travel !

Its not that far, and maybe your free travel will be on electric trains and buses

OPEC are done IMO, electric cars are going to kill them

macnab

Personally and not based on any known science or provable mathematics, I think the take up will be quicker than that article suggests. But my prediction is based on the idea that an EV will be a "no brainer" decision as a 2nd car. So i believe sales to 2 car families will accelerate for a while which will skew forecasted sales at some stage in the near future.

nokia69

macnab wrote: »

Personally and not based on any known science or provable mathematics, I think the take up will be quicker than that article suggests. But my prediction is based on the idea that an EV will be a "no brainer" decision as a 2nd car. So i believe sales to 2 car families will accelerate for a while which will skew forecasted sales at some stage in the near future.

I think you're right, and if people are buying an EV as a second car they don't need a big range, anything like a mark 1 Leaf is good enough

BoatMad

nokia69 wrote: »

I think you're right, and if people are buying an EV as a second car they don't need a big range, anything like a mark 1 Leaf is good enough

range will be a big attraction , remember even today a 30kw leaf can be under 100Km if you push it in the cold fast on a wet motorway up a hill etc ,

even 60 kw wont be a complete answer, closer to 100kw will be probably the key switch over point

nokia69

BoatMad wrote: »

range will be a big attraction , remember even today a 30kw leaf can be under 100Km if you push it in the cold fast on a wet motorway up a hill etc ,

even 60 kw wont be a complete answer, closer to 100kw will be probably the key switch over point

At this point its all just guess work and opinion, but it looks to me that 60kWh at a sub €40K price point is where things get interesting

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

range will be a big attraction , remember even today a 30kw leaf can be under 100Km if you push it in the cold fast on a wet motorway up a hill etc ,

even 60 kw wont be a complete answer, closer to 100kw will be probably the key switch over point

I really don't see the problem if people have to slow down from 120 to 110 kph on some longer trips, it makes a difference and you should get 140 km at this speed. The difference in time isn't huge.

I think most people won't have an issue, as I have said in another thread tonight, anyone who has bought a leaf should not be surprised about range given all my posts on the topic.

Based on my driving pretty hard to and from work 135 kms give or take my efficiency is never more than 19.5 Kwh/100 kms, this is driving 100-130 kph on this route 100-110 up and 100-120 home with some 130 kph stints. A bit of over taking now and then.

So 60 kwh should give still about 280 miles I don't see the big deal on a small Island like Ireland. Especially if you can fast charge and even faster charging is on the horizon.

As I said before , my average efficiency for 2015 and 26,600 recorded kms was 17.5 Kwh/100 kms.

nokia69

nokia69 wrote: »

I think you're right, and if people are buying an EV as a second car they don't need a big range, anything like a mark 1 Leaf is good enough

I have driven 31,000 kms since 20 th Jan 2015. Others have done more. There are many two car families that clock this up with two cars and less.

Oil is already becoming worthless due to overall reduced global demand and excessive supply. With Iran now due to sell oil again the Saudis won't be able to cut production any more to suit them and they're already feeling the pinch.

nokia69

Deleted User wrote: »

Oil is already becoming worthless

It will never be worthless, as Mendeleev said

burning petroleum as a fuel "would be akin to firing up a kitchen stove with bank notes.

its such a useful substance burning it in cars is madness

nokia69

nokia69 wrote: »

It will never be worthless, as Mendeleev said

It may not be worthless but it could reach the point not many companies wouldn't be bothered trying to search for new wells or extracting it.

bk

Oil is likely to become like most other minerals and resources. Still mined and used by many companies, but not the important, economy controlling substance it is now.

Just another material like Lithium, etc. that goes into the production of various products. It will still be used, but it won't be on the news every night, just like Lithium mining, etc. aren't.

In the not too distant future, the only time you will hear about oil is mostly in the history books and history documentaries.

BoatMad

If you advertised ice cars that had to compromise and drive slowly you'd be laughed off the block.

When EVs outperform ice in all aspects then the great switch will occur. Until then it's a geeks car.

Water John

Maybe not all, Boat Mad, If capital cost is the same and running cost is lower and range largely taken care of. That trio look like kicking in about 3 years.
One other less measurable trait, fashion is difficult to pinpoint but may be a significant propellor.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

If you advertised ice cars that had to compromise and drive slowly you'd be laughed off the block.

When EVs outperform ice in all aspects then the great switch will occur. Until then it's a geeks car.

Are you serious ? I'm regularly passing hundreds of ICE drivers doing 80 Kph in the motorway on the N7, M7 !

BoatMad

Water John wrote: »

Maybe not all, Boat Mad, If capital cost is the same and running cost is lower and range largely taken care of. That trio look like kicking in about 3 years.
One other less measurable trait, fashion is difficult to pinpoint but may be a significant propellor.

There's no chance range will be sorted in three years. Not to the extent that the EV becomes the mainstay family car.

We also have to see what the commercial fast charger regime looks like and whether it's commercially viable and therefore if it can expand.

That in itself will cause a significant rise in EV motoring charges. Larger capacity batteries will mean increased reliance of fast chargers too.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you serious ? I'm regularly passing hundreds of ICE drivers doing 80 Kph in the motorway on the N7, M7 !

I drive the southern reaches of the m11 everyday. The average speed is at or above the legal limit. I drive my truck at 100-110 kph , I'm often the slowest around and get passed even by artics.

Where drivers are not constrained by traffic , studies show average motorway speeds rose to close to legal limits.

The only people doing 80 kph n a open rural motorway are either aged over 90 , or you confusing tractors with cars. Modern cars can do 120 kph without breaking a sweat.

The think is the difference between 100 and 120 Kph isn't a lot and if an EV driver has to reduce the speed to 100 kph for the time being until battery capacity increases then I am sure it won't be that big of a deal for them.

For some people it is and they like to drive 140-160 kph but I don't so I couldn't care less.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

The think is the difference between 100 and 120 Kph isn't a lot and if an EV driver has to reduce the speed to 100 kph for the time being until battery capacity increases then I am sure it won't be that big of a deal for them.

For some people it is and they like to drive 140-160 kph but I don't so I couldn't care less.

What you or I think as EV early adopters is irelevant , EVs will only be acceptable to the generality of the population if they match or succeed ICE cars in all aspects. That includes range , price , speed, comfort.

People as a rule , will not trade those aspects merely to drive an EV, unlike us.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

What you or I think as EV early adopters is irelevant , EVs will only be acceptable to the generality of the population if they match or succeed ICE cars in all aspects. That includes range , price , speed, comfort.

People as a rule , will not trade those aspects merely to drive an EV, unlike us.

I think you're missing a very vital point, that is, for the majority , i.e 98% of the car buying population, aren't even thinking about electric cars.

You seem to think most people are thinking when electric cars are good enough..............etc. The point being people are not thinking about them in the first place never mind about "when they're good enough".

People will buy electric cars when ICE cars become too expensive for them and when they're more aware about them.

I personally do not know anyone who has even conceived the idea of buying an electric car.

Rafal

Deleted User wrote: »

I really don't see the problem if people have to slow down from 120 to 110 kph on some longer trips, it makes a difference and you should get 140 km at this speed.

Not according to my reasonably careful records. At 110-120 real speed (120-128 indicated) the MY2016 30 kWh Leaf range is about 107-109 km with efficient heating on at 19C in 5C weather, but without rain.

If you mean 120-110 kph indicated, which is 102-112 kph real speed, in the same conditions, the range is about 120km.

To get the range of 140km you need to drop your real speed to below 90kph, which is below 100kph indicated. At below 50 kph the range increases to over 170 km. Naturally, these are average speeds, so you can drive faster occasionally, but these averages are quite exact when calculating ranges between motorway recharging stops. Summer will be better.

Forget about GPS speeds, it drives me insane when people drive using GPS as the speedometer, all cars over read by law, 120 kph in the Leaf isn't going to be different from 120 kph in a 3 series.

Has anyone actually bothered to range test the 30 kwh without using the guess-o-meter ?

Rafal

Deleted User wrote: »

Forget about GPS speeds, it drives me insane when people drive using GPS as the speedometer, all cars over read by law, 120 kph in the Leaf isn't going to be different from 120 kph in a 3 series.

I am sorry, but you are incorrect is thinking that all cars read the same. Leaf pretends to be going faster much more than my Prius did. We cannot be even sure that your Leaf reads the same as mine, as they can differ by 5% from each other.

Also, the law does not require cars to show a higher speed than actual. The law only requires cars not to display a speed lower than real, and limits by how much it can exaggerate the displayed speed. It is further different in countries outside of EU, and as I frequently rent around the world I need to know the actual speed I am driving at. As a judge in US said to another convicted driver quoted elsewhere, it is not the speedometer you need to obey but the law.

For those reasons I prefer to share the actual speeds at which I have measured the real driving ranges of my Leaf so that you and others can make their own conclusions without the guesswork. I did not mean to offend your anti-GPS feelings.

Deleted User wrote: »

Has anyone actually bothered to range test the 30 kwh without using the guess-o-meter ?

Yes, and I have published my tests with the data on the Leaf range threads here and on speakev.com.

thierry14

BoatMad wrote: »

If you advertised ice cars that had to compromise and drive slowly you'd be laughed off the block.

When EVs outperform ice in all aspects then the great switch will occur. Until then it's a geeks car.

Which is why hybrids will be the car of the masses for the foreseeable future imo.

It's s win win for car manufacturers, opec, average consumer etc

Car manufactures have complex cars that can go wrong.

opec can have oil at a low price but still make profit.

consumers have fuel economy/range/performance ( cheap oil prices and electric motor for short range/performance )

Tech is nearly there to have hybrids doing 100km on electric only ( enough for the average person to go shop etc ) and another 700km on a small efficient petrol/diesel engine )

If oil prices go a bit lower say 10/20 percent people will just not demand EV's and car manufacturers/oil companies will be delighted.

If diesel is 80cent a litre here and you have an electric motor capable of doing 100km, people are not going to be overly pushed going full EV.

Rafal

thierry14 wrote: »

Which is why hybrids will be the car of the masses for the foreseeable future imo.

It's s win win for car manufacturers, opec, average consumer etc

Car manufactures have complex cars that can go wrong.

opec can have oil at a low price but still make profit.

consumers have fuel economy/range/performance ( cheap oil prices and electric motor for short range/performance )

Tech is nearly there to have hybrids doing 100km on electric only ( enough for the average person to go shop etc ) and another 700km on a small efficient petrol/diesel engine )

If oil prices go a bit lower say 10/20 percent people will just not demand EV's and car manufacturers/oil companies will be delighted.

If diesel is 80cent a litre here and you have an electric motor capable of doing 100km, people are not going to be overly pushed going full EV.

Thierry, you seem to assume that price of fuel is the only or perhaps the main reason people choose EVs. That is not the case. Your argument, however, does hold and will hold for those who see EVs on fuel economy grounds alone, for as long as government regulation in EU remains as it is—but see what happens when it changes, like it did in Norway.

We had another discussion on another thread (see post 25 here) in which I have mentioned many other reasons, including health, environment, comfort, and quality. While these reasons will not sway you or Ted1, they will sway plenty of other drivers, who do not consider fuel economy to be the no 1 factor. This will accellerate when the EV range and charging times improve.

Rafal

Rafal wrote: »

This will accellerate when the EV range and charging times improve.

Wrong, people are quiet willing to pay for petrol and diesel. People will change when emission regulations demand change or when car manufacturers decide to change and not until then, until then EV's will continue to be sold maily to enthusiasts

Some people seem to think that EV range is on the minds of the 99.5% of new car buyers who do not choose EV but this is wrong, the 99.5% of car buyers are not thinking about buying an EV in the first place, the thought doesn't even register in their minds. It only registers in the minds of people actually wanting to buy an EV.

Water John

The general public don't demand new concepts. That is human nature. It takes some single person or small group to come up with a game changer and put it out there, a disruptor.
Think of the CD, personal computer, smartphone.
The market did not demand those. They simply did not have the concept, until presented to them.
Similarily, Elon Musk, Google and others will disrupt the car market. EV's will come in conjunction with the driverless car concept. I think that will be the driver of change. Excusing the pun.

BoatMad

If one looks at the evolution of transport , from horse to canal to steam, to private car, the primary driving force was convenience . railways charged more then canals , but they were more convienent for users. Private car usage ( and commercial road freight) gee because , while it was considerably more expensive to buy and run, it offered great convenience over inflexible railways.

EVs are the same, when its more convenient , whatever such convenience means to the potential EV buyer , then they will switch from ICE to EV.

Regulations will never force a change, because too many jobs depend on ICE manufacture, it will be like why smoking isn't actually banned.

when EVS( and its infrastructure) are perceived to offer more convenience, thats when the changeover occurs.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

I
when EVS( and its infrastructure) are perceived to offer more convenience, thats when the changeover occurs.

Wrong, when car manufacturers decide to stop producing ICE cars, this is when the changeover as you say will take place.

When will car manufacturers decide this ? when legislation dictates it.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

Wrong, when car manufacturers decide to stop producing ICE cars, this is when the changeover as you say will take place.

When will car manufacturers decide this ? when legislation dictates it.

well we'll be waiting a 100 years then