March 2016 Boards forecast contest (enter by 0300h Tuesday 1st March)

pauldry

Belmullet won todays temp

12.1c to 12.5c provisionally

Maybe some of ye know the exact.

Think Newport only got 11c

Markree just under 11c

Finner just over 11c

Shannon near 12c

Mace Head 11c

Dont know how accurate but these are values I saw. Consensus was 11 to 12c so id say all got points

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Belmullet won todays temp

12.1c to 12.5c provisionally

Maybe some of ye know the exact.

Think Newport only got 11c

Markree just under 11c

Finner just over 11c

Shannon near 12c

Mace Head 11c

Dont know how accurate but these are values I saw. Consensus was 11 to 12c so id say all got points

But nobody guessed it would be Belmullet, oops :P:pac:

M.T. Cranium

Early morning reading of -4.9 C at 0600h at Mullingar. Dublin was down to -4 around 0400h.

If Belmullet is the location of yesterday's max, then I will give one point to anyone who guessed a location in Connacht or who guessed the location of the second highest temperature if that's not in Connacht (I suspect it may be Newport). There won't be any super-bonus though.

Points for the temperature will go in groups of three from eight down to one, but I suspect a number of ties which usually results in somewhat higher points overall, and I will smooth the scores so there aren't any strange 3-point differentials for 0.2 C gradations. In fact I will just give everyone a participation ribbon (hope you're not reduced to that yet).

My current estimates for finishing values are IMT 6.5, PRC 80% and SUN 115% based on a few more sunny, dry days then some cloud and rain, not overly heavy perhaps. The percentage is going to be down around 70% of normal rainfall after third week, then it will drift back up a bit.

Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My current estimates for finishing values are IMT 6.5, PRC 80% and SUN 115%

Or perhaps PRC 80% and SUN 120%!

Yesterday's outcomes
12.5 Belmullet
10.9 Malin
10.7 Finner and Valentia.

So no super bonus for Connaught?

M.T. Cranium

The three closest predictions of the maximum for the lovely eight points were 12.4 from (uncanny) Mickger844posts, then 12.3 from (always there or thereabouts) Sunflower3 and a herd-culling 12.9 from 200motels who made my life easier as about half the field chose 12.0 or 13.0. All those suspects will have seven points, there appear to be five humans and the two bots who don't take points away from humans, so that means the 13.1 and 11.9 guesses will squeak in at six points. As there are 25 human forecasts, I will reset the groups of three after those and work down to the one point for three most adrift although really nobody went berserk on this one (all in the range 10-16).

I think it would be fair to give one of the two location points to all the Vals and to my inspired guess of Newport, on first glance I did not notice any Donegal or Connacht guesses otherwise.

Superbonus only happens when somebody has maximum points in both categories or at least second highest score in both, possibly some of the Vals will get an extra point but nobody will qualify for two. (more thought goes into this than the entire Donald Trump campaign to date, or so I'm saying)

Yes, sunshine could run up the score before being taken off in the second half.

pauldry

Hey MT ogimet has mullingar at -5.1c by 6am could be lower min yet. Also Dunsany at -4c at 7am so who knows

Tae laidir

pauldry wrote: »

Hey MT ogimet has mullingar at -5.1c by 6am could be lower min yet. Also Dunsany at -4c at 7am so who knows

Mullingar -5.1 confirmed

sryanbruen

So wait? -5.1c at Mullingar. That's the exact same minimum temperature that I predicted, WHAT?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98855297&postcount=2

sryanbruen

So December has a maximum higher than March's? That's Ireland for ya :rolleyes:

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

So December has a maximum higher than March's? That's Ireland for ya :rolleyes:

Could have a max higher than April the way our Spring temperatures have been going the past decade!

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Could have a max higher than April the way our Spring temperatures have been going the past decade!

Well April 2011 wasn't bad at all temperature wise. I reached 20c or more on 12 of the days - my highest on record. In 2015, I reached it on two days. Apart from 2011, there has been no March maximum temperature remarkably higher than the preceding December's one here.

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well April 2011 wasn't bad at all temperature wise. I reached 20c or more on 12 of the days

Grange must be in a south-facing patio :eek:

I've got 20C in April maybe 12 times in the past 40 years!

Tae laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

So December has a maximum higher than March's? That's Ireland for ya :rolleyes:

Not that unusual.
As a rule of thumb, I match the months into pairs :
January, February
December, March
November, April
October, May
September, June
August, July
They are often quite comparable.
MT, how about other jurisdictions?

M.T. Cranium

These would be all-time record highs for my part of the world in each month:

Jan 16
Feb 18
Mar 25
Apr 28
May 31
Jun 33
Jul 35
Aug 34
Sep 33
Oct 29
Nov 21
Dec 19

then for Toronto which has a long period of record, these values:

Jan 19
Feb 18
Mar 27
Apr 32
May 35
Jun 38
Jul 41
Aug 39
Sep 38
Oct 30
Nov 24
Dec 21

I think you can see a bit more of a continental climate influence there in spring when you compare the pairs. Record highs for Toronto in early November are about the same as in late March. The values we have seen around Vancouver are much closer to those you have in Ireland over a long period. The 35 C reading was on the 30th of July 2009. Toronto's 41 happened on three consecutive days in July 1936. It has not exceeded 39 there since (or before).

M.T. Cranium

Update after three weeks ...

IMT now at 6.0(2) after a week at 5.6 C.

PRC fell to 60% after a basically dry week (average was 1% mostly dew 0.1 mm)

SUN stayed put at a rounded off 106% with the week 108%. (319.3/3 for later use -- edit)

Well, the sunshine did not do quite as well as projected and now it may be in danger of sinking back to 100% or even lower given the cloudy outlook in general. PRC will no doubt recover some to perhaps 80% and IMT is more likely to go up than down although not a lot. May finish around 6.3 C.

pauldry

is 419.3/3 not 139.76666666

I find it hard to believe sun so low.

There was continuous sun numerous days although maybe the East and South brought it down

Agricultural report on Met Eireann had sun over 200% of normal in a lot of stations in the West.

however the last few days completely overcast

How pedantic is this post.

Sorry

M.T. Cranium

You're right but it was my mistake with the 4, it should have been 319.3/3 there.

The average last week was brought down by cloudier conditions in Leinster, Belmullet was close to 200% for the week.

Just wondering what we could use for a bonus question in April. Any suggestions?

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You're right but it was my mistake with the 4, it should have been 319.3/3 there.

The average last week was brought down by cloudier conditions in Leinster, Belmullet was close to 200% for the week.

Just wondering what we could use for a bonus question in April. Any suggestions?

Guess the maximum on Arbor Day (29th April) :P:pac:

M.T. Cranium

Anything big happening around second weekend (9-10 April)? I like to have some bonus questions that people can check model output (to get a sense of my ongoing frustration with how they keep changing closer to the time ... )

pauldry

Guess the wettest day of April and where?

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Guess the wettest day of April and where?

This one MT because it would be very challenging.

sryanbruen

With Saturday-Tuesday's totals, could March be relatively dry or relatively wet, what do you think MT?

Schadenfreudia

Go for something simple which will reflect the complete guesswork of the models 3 weeks out....what/where will be the lowest temperature on the 31st of April.

sryanbruen

Schadenfreudia wrote: »

Go for something simple which will reflect the complete guesswork of the models 3 weeks out....what/where will be the lowest temperature on the 31st of April.

30th*

Schadenfreudia

sryanbruen wrote: »

30th*

Shush...I was saving that post for the 1st...;)

M.T. Cranium

Update after four weeks ...

IMT now at 6.2 C after a week that averaged 6.9 C.

PRC has risen to 83% after a rather wet week (150% of normal).

SUN has fallen to 97.6% with the week at 71.2%. (390.5/4)

Average sunshine per day is now about 4 hours so we'll need to average about 5 hours a day to bring this back above 100%. The other data are not likely to move much in the last three days.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for March 2016

These may change slightly but as we won't have confirmed values until the 4th of April, I will leave this up and change what I can from values I can derive from the monthly data section on Friday 1st. Expect some variation in final scoring within about 3-4 points, unless we have unexpected values for Max and Min.

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 17th _____ TOTALS

Estimated values ___ 6.2_16.1_--5.1_080_105__12.5_Bel

Jpmarn ___________ 09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 0 _______ 46
John mac ___ (-3) __ 12 _ 11 _ 00 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 40-3=37
Pauldry ___________ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 07 _ 1 _______ 44
jd_________ (-3) ___14 _ 07 _ 00 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 36-3=33
Rikand ____________17 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 1 _______ 55

Normal ___________ 17 _ 11 _ 19 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 71

kindredspirit (-1) ___ 19 _ 11 _ 14 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 07 _ 1 __ 67-1=66
DOCARCH __ (-2) ___19 _ 13 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 03 _ 0 __ 62-2=60
MrSkinner __ (-1) ___19 _ 14 _ 09 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 0 __ 66-1=65
Bsal ______________19 _ 09 _ 17 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 1 _______ 67
waterways _________20 _ 13 _ 04 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 59
Lostinashford _______20 _ 16 _ 09 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 0 _______ 62
Rameire ___________21 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 71
dasa29 ____________22 _ 11 _ 19 _ 05 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 0 _______ 68

Con Sensus ________ 22 _ 16 _ 14 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 07 _ 1 _______ 78

Sunflower3 ________ 22 _ 12 _ 18 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 1 _______ 82
omicron ___________22 _ 16 _ 09 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 73
200motels _________22 _ 19 _ 12 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 08 _ 0 _______ 75
Schadenfreudia (-5) _ 23 _ 06 _ 19 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 64-5=59
Tae laidir __________23 _ 16 _ 11 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 75
M.T. Cranium ______ 24 _ 09 _ 16 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 05 _ 1 _______ 77
Lumi _____________ 25 _ 19 _ 19 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 04 _ 1 _______ 88
Mickger844posts ____25 _ 13 _ 20 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 08 _ 0 _______ 88
Dacogawa _________ 23 _ 19 _ 17 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 1 _______ 88
sryanbruen ________ 22 _ 01 _ 20 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 53
Joe Public _________ 20 _ 08 _ 18 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 0 _______ 66
Elmer Blooker ______ 07 _ 16 _ 12 _ 05 _ 03 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 50
_____________________________________________________________

Some very high scores anchored by close IMT forecasts and nothing much went wrong elsewhere for Dac, Mick and Lumi, also Sunflower3. Quite a few in the 70s.

(edit -- IMT did not drop as much as I expected, it went from 6.24 to 6.18 and so it stayed on 6.2 ... meanwhile the monthly data indicate that the PRC value was 80% rather than the 82% used. That has the effect of dropping most scores by one (if you were in the right sequence for rounding you didn't drop and two of us gained one by the lower outcome). Sunshine was certainly above the trend as expected but in fact the daily data indicate it was close to 200% which boosts the month to 105% rather than the originally estimated 100%. So if you were 103 or higher you gained a point, 102 or lower lost a point. This has given us a three-way tie for top score which will only change if I spot something in the MS to change my mind on any of the data now being used. This is a first, I don't even remember a two-way tie although I'm sure it probably happened once before. These figures will now remain until I can check the MS on Monday 4th).
________________________________________________

Tae laidir

Schadenfreudia scored a 90 in 2015, but no human has managed one since at least 2011.
Good luck with the final push, Dacogawa.

Schadenfreudia

Tae laidir wrote: »

Schadenfreudia scored a 90 in 2015, but no human has managed one since at least 2011.
Good luck with the final push, Dacogawa.

Are you suggesting I'm not human??


Just wait for my April forecast!

(Hopefully without penalty points )

dacogawa

Tae laidir wrote: »

Schadenfreudia scored a 90 in 2015, but no human has managed one since at least 2011.
Good luck with the final push, Dacogawa.

Thanks Tae laidir, I didn't know that stat :eek: it won't happen though, I'm not a machine like Schadenfreudia

pauldry

Am I winning the "human" contest?

Hey MT maybe you should put one of those boxes under the entry forms where people put numbers and letters to prove theyre human.

Joe Public

We're not human we are forecasters

M.T. Cranium

As explained in more detail in the scoring summary, the actual data came in a bit different from my estimates, the IMT stayed up at 6.2 after rounding, the PRC was 80% and SUN appears to be 105% after a bucketful of sunshine at all six of the locations used from 29th to 31st (that portion of a week near 200%).

This has slightly changed the score-fest at the top to a never-before-seen three-way tie at 88 points. Congrats to just about everybody.

Scores could theoretically change by four, many cancelled out (if you went warm, cloudy and wet it all cancelled out). If you went warmer than 6.0, sunny and dry you probably gained four. Nobody was in the position of losing four anyway. Some quality control was applied to the bonus scores when I counted them up I noticed that one cohort was a bit skimpy so that Sryanbruen gained a point there.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring for March 2016

Checked the Monthly Summary, most of the revised provisional numbers were confirmed, sunshine worked out to be 109.7% which on a second sweep of the data from 29th to 31st seems to be plausible (the average for the stations over those three days was over 7.5 hours). This has given about half the field one extra point and reduced the other half of the scores by the same amount. Our three tied leaders all gained the extra point, so we now have a confirmed three-way tie for top score. Congrats to Dacogawa, Lumi and Mickger844posts.

FORECASTER ______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ Max 17th _____ TOTALS

Confirmed values ___ 6.0_16.1_--5.1_080_110__12.5_Bel

Dacogawa _________ 23 _ 19 _ 17 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 06 _ 1 _______ 89
Lumi ______________25 _ 19 _ 19 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 1 _______ 89
Mickger844posts ____ 25 _ 13 _ 20 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 0 _______ 89
Sunflower3 _________22 _ 12 _ 18 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 1 _______ 81
M.T. Cranium _______24 _ 09 _ 16 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 05 _ 1 _______ 78

Con Sensus ________ 22 _ 16 _ 14 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 07 _ 1 _______ 77


Tae laidir __________23 _ 16 _ 11 _ 12 _ 10 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 76
200motels _________22 _ 19 _ 12 _ 07 _ 06 ___ 08 _ 0 _______ 74
omicron ___________22 _ 16 _ 09 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 72
Rameire ___________21 _ 16 _ 10 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 70


Normal ___________ 17 _ 11 _ 19 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 70

dasa29 ____________22 _ 11 _ 19 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 0 _______ 67
Bsal ______________ 19 _ 09 _ 17 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 01 _ 1 _______ 66
Joe Public __________20 _ 08 _ 18 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 06 _ 0 _______ 65
kindredspirit (-1) ____19 _ 11 _ 14 _ 10 _ 04 ___ 07 _ 1 __ 66-1=65
MrSkinner __ (-1) ___ 19 _ 14 _ 09 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 06 _ 0 __ 65-1=64
Lostinashford _______20 _ 16 _ 09 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 01 _ 0 _______ 63
DOCARCH __ (-2) ___ 19 _ 13 _ 10 _ 08 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 0 __ 63-2=61
waterways _________ 20 _ 13 _ 04 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 58
Schadenfreudia (-5) _ 23 _ 06 _ 19 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 63-5=58
Rikand ____________17 _ 11 _ 09 _ 05 _ 08 ___ 03 _ 1 _______ 54
sryanbruen ________ 22 _ 01 _ 20 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 04 _ 0 _______ 52
Elmer Blooker ______ 07 _ 16 _ 12 _ 05 _ 04 ___ 07 _ 0 _______ 51
Jpmarn ___________ 09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 10 _ 10 ___ 03 _ 0 _______ 47
Pauldry ___________ 13 _ 00 _ 07 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 07 _ 1 _______ 45
John mac ___ (-3) __ 12 _ 11 _ 00 _ 05 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 39-3=36
jd_________ (-3) ___14 _ 07 _ 00 _ 03 _ 09 ___ 02 _ 0 __ 35-3=32

______________________________________________________________

Will post the updated annual scoring in a while (everyone's no doubt asleep but me so no rush) ...

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring for 2016


FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ TOTAL

Tae laidir _______________86 _ 76 _ 76 ___ 238
Lumi __________________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 ___ 232
mickger844posts ________ 78 _ 63 _ 89 ___ 230

Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 ____ 225

Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 ____ 224
MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 ____ 213
waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 ____ 208
Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 199
Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 ____ 199
lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 ____ 198
Bsal __________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 ____ 197
Rikand ________________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 ____ 197
Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 _ 58 ____ 195
Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 ____ 191
omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 ____ 191
200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 ____ 188

Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 ____ 187

M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 ____ 186
JD____________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 ____ 178
DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 ____ 176
Jpmarn ________________64 _ 60 _ 47 ____ 171
Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 ____ 167
john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 ____ 165
Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 ____ 156
Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 ____ 142
kindredspirit ____________ -- _ 35 _ 65 ____ 100

Timmyboy ______________-- _ 53 _ --- _____ 53
Elmer Blooker ___________ -- _ -- _ 51 _____ 51

________________________________________________________

sryanbruen

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Annual scoring for 2016


FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ TOTAL

Tae laidir _______________86 _ 76 _ 76 ___ 238
Lumi __________________ 71 _ 72 _ 89 ___ 232
mickger844posts ________ 78 _ 63 _ 89 ___ 230

Con Sensus ____________ 73 _ 75 _ 77 ____ 225

Sunflower3 _____________72 _ 71 _ 81 ____ 224
MrSkinner ______________83 _ 66 _ 64 ____ 213
waterways _____________ 75 _ 75 _ 58 ____ 208
Rameire _______________ 69 _ 60 _ 70 ____ 199
Dacogawa _____________ 52 _ 58 _ 89 ____ 199
lostinashford ___________ 69 _ 66 _ 63 ____ 198
Bsal __________________ 65 _ 66 _ 66 ____ 197
Rikand ________________ 67 _ 76 _ 54 ____ 197
Schadenfreudia _________ 65 _ 72 _ 58 ____ 195
Dasa29 ________________66 _ 58 _ 67 ____ 191
omicron _______________ 76 _ 43 _ 72 ____ 191
200motels _____________ 46 _ 68 _ 74 ____ 188

Norma L _______________52 _ 65 _ 70 ____ 187

M.T. Cranium ___________46 _ 62 _ 78 ____ 186
JD____________________ 69 _ 77 _ 32 ____ 178
DOCARCH _____________ 53 _ 62 _ 61 ____ 176
Jpmarn ________________64 _ 60 _ 47 ____ 171
Pauldry________________ 53 _ 69 _ 45 ____ 167
john mac ______________ 72 _ 57 _ 36 ____ 165
Joe Public ______________28 _ 63 _ 65 ____ 156
Sryanbruen ____________ 27 _ 63 _ 52 ____ 142
kindredspirit ____________ -- _ 35 _ 65 ____ 100

Timmyboy ______________-- _ 53 _ --- _____ 53
Elmer Blooker ___________ -- _ -- _ 51 _____ 51

________________________________________________________

Okay, I'm done with taking risks! Never taking risks like very dull March or very low February minimum temperature again!

Joe Public

sryanbruen wrote: »

Okay, I'm done with taking risks! Never taking risks like very dull March or very low February minimum temperature again!

Con never takes risks

pauldry

im saying every month freezing n wet from now till december when itl prob be 17c

dacogawa

pauldry wrote: »

im saying every month freezing n wet from now till december when itl prob be 17c

go the other way, we might get some real snow! :rolleyes:

sryanbruen

dacogawa wrote: »

go the other way, we might get some real snow! :rolleyes:

We can all dream and pray to Mother Nature and give us that gift!