Election Results thread

K-9

A thread for election day counts, tallies, results, commentary, guesses, tears, laughs and general madness.

Might as well start with the Irish Times poll:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-exit-poll-shows-coalition-well-short-of-overall-majority-1.2550489


FG 26
FF 23
SF 15
Labour 8
AAA 3.6
Green 3.5
SD 2.8
Renua 2.3
Independents 16

johnnyskeleton

On those numbers the seats could be 50 FG, 40 FF, 20 SF, <10 Lab and a huge number of independent and small parties.

gandalf

If that's accurate there will be a fair few well known fallers tomorrow.

I have a feeling that Joan Burton is definitely gone.

Centaur

Don't know if this is laughs or tears.

Jamie2k9

I am going to call it FG/LAB will win it by a seat or two to get a Government together. There will be no booting people out over the next 5 years I expect.

K-9

Can't see any political party being that happy with the results, FF maybe but it only 3% up on last time and SF up 5%, but not doing as well as the initial polls thought.

Disaster for FG and Labour. For the smaller parties it will come down to seat numbers but definitely no breakthrough going on these figures.

Transfers will be key going on these numbers, the Government parties will need to maximise them to get close to 70 seats to stand a chance of returning and FF will need them to offer an alternative, but it looks like FF and FG going on these numbers is the only realistic option.

NIMAN

Do these figures, and a likelihood of another election before the year is out, show that a large vote going to independents makes for political instability?

gandalf

NIMAN wrote: »

Do these figures, and a likelihood of another election before the year is out, show that a large vote going to independents makes for political instability?

If those poll results prove to be accurate then I would be very surprised if the Government that results from them will form any stable Government at all and I think you are on the money with that prediction of another GE before the end of the year.

johnnyskeleton

NIMAN wrote: »

Do these figures, and a likelihood of another election before the year is out, show that a large vote going to independents makes for political instability?

A few of the independents are gene pool guys. Not beyond the realms of possibility that the parties will try to win back their disaffected former members.

Also, if theres a large enough group they could start to form parties.

daviecronin

i just can't see a FF and FG government working? Are we going back to the polls again? Labour have been wiped out

K-9

NIMAN wrote: »

Do these figures, and a likelihood of another election before the year is out, show that a large vote going to independents makes for political instability?

Or general fedupness with the main political parties, regardless of persuasion casuses instability. I'd blame the parties for that myself, not Independents.

If this exit poll is close that means the last opinion poll carried out for the Irish Times has got it pretty close for 3 elections in a row.

That being the case (independents = instability) and elections are about electing governments, should there be a threshold figure one needs on a national basis to have a representation in the Dail?

johnnyskeleton

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That being the case (independents = instability) and elections are about electing governments, should there be a threshold figure one needs on a national basis to have a representation in the Dail?

I would be against that, but they do have mimimum vote requirements in some countries.

To be honest, while I have no time for Lucinda, one point Renua makes is that the party whip system is too strong in ireland and I tend to agree. If the parties didnt command obedience on most/all issues and expel people who vote against them, the main parties would be stronger.

Chances of them taking this on board, however, are quite low IMO.

Centaur

As a supporter of the outgoing government I am saddened by the results, but it is nonetheless fascinating to witness the shattering of the old order.
Will we see a FG/FF alliance 100 years after the Rising? That would be tectonic.

Centaur

Looks like they will need a bigger venue for the 'Technical Group' Christmas party.

Harry Palmr

I suspect a cobbled together FG led coalition of the willing which will manage as a minority government until the 2017 budget vote.

allthedoyles

How about a rainbow FG - Lab - Renua and Michael Lowry

Centaur

allthedoyles wrote: »

How about a rainbow FG - Lab - Renua and Michael Lowry

Don't forget Elvis, Lord Lucan and Shergar.

pconn062

Just goes to show how very short term memories the Irish voting public have, if FF come away with close to 40 seats.

Centaur

Centaur wrote: »

Don't know if this is laughs or tears.

tears

gandalf

allthedoyles wrote: »

How about a rainbow FG - Lab - Renua and Michael Lowry

Don't forget the Healy-Rae Chuckle Brothers from Kerry! We're going to be ransomed by a pack of Super Councillors !!!

NIMAN

daviecronin wrote: »

i just can't see a FF and FG government working? Are we going back to the polls again? Labour have been wiped out

There should be no reason why not? They are a bit like Catholics and Protestants in the North, basically the same thing with very slight differences, yet people are just letting history stand in the way.

BoJack Horseman

cos graphics are nice....

Exit poll:

https://twitter.com/IrishTimesPol/status/703352044120350720

gandalf

NIMAN wrote: »

There should be no reason why not? They are a bit like Catholics and Protestants in the North, basically the same thing with very slight differences, yet people are just letting history stand in the way.

As I said in another thread I can see both parties forcing a 2nd election before hopping into bed together. If not you could see it causing a split one or both of the parties.

Jamie2k9

gandalf wrote: »

As I said in another thread I can see both parties forcing a 2nd election before hopping into bed together. If not you could see it causing a split one or both of the parties.

A second election could prove more positive for a FG/LAB to be returned, if things get messy for now, the stability card could win it.

5starpool

allthedoyles wrote: »

How about a rainbow FG - Lab - Renua and Michael Lowry

That would still be about 15 seats short of a majority.

NIMAN

If there is a coalition of FF/FG, and the world economy takes another hit over the next 5 years, SF will be laughing all the way to the top as when the next election is called both FG/FF will be punished for all the cutbacks they have to introduce.

Happy Monday

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

A second election could prove more positive for a FG/LAB to be returned, if things get messy for now, the stability card could win it.

Stability won't be an issue when Moan Burton is turfed out.
There will be only a handful of members left in the Labour party.
They will be without credibility.
FF voters who voted for FG this time and last may go back into the FF stable.
Then there could be a FF-SF government later this year.
Could be..........one possibility.

Padster90s

On those results FF/SF coalition would be stronger than FG/Lab. So we're looking at either FG/FF or FF/SF or another election in the summer. Interesting times ahead...

TCDStudent1

gandalf wrote: »

As I said in another thread I can see both parties forcing a 2nd election before hopping into bed together. If not you could see it causing a split one or both of the parties.

Real potential for a split in FF. there will be faced with a serious conundrum. Go into government with FG as a minoroty party. Or stay in opposition and most likely become a majority party at next election. Huge risk for them to enter government as minority partner

Rowley Birkin QC

FF / FG coalition leaves SFas the main oppsition party, not something that either FF or FG want in the long run you'd imagine.

gandalf

If FF put SF into Government they could get destroyed in the next election. They certainly will put a massive strain on their own support either shipping some to SF directly or driving supporters away from them to another one of the less tainted parties.

gandalf

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Real potential for a split in FF. there will be faced with a serious conundrum. Go into government with FG as a minoroty party. Or stay in opposition and most likely become a majority party at next election. Huge risk for them to enter government as minority partner

Absolutely and SF would probably be the major beneficiary of that at the next election.

gandalf

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

A second election could prove more positive for a FG/LAB to be returned, if things get messy for now, the stability card could win it.

It depends. I reckon that they should change leader if it looks like there will be a 2nd election this year. I have a feeling that Enda has cost them a number of seats with his lacklustre and quite frankly gombeen like performance for this election. Every time I heard him talk I cringed, there is something so insincere about him when he speaks.

The whole stability arguement with a new face at the helm will give them a boost as well I reckon.

Centaur

There are so many ifs, buts and maybes in the post election landscape that even the legendary Ross O'Carroll Kelly couldn't call it.

Matt Cooper said the other night that he hadn't a clue what will happen. I'm inclined to agree with him.

Benbecul97

pconn062 wrote: »

Just goes to show how very short term memories the Irish voting public have, if FF come away with close to 40 seats.

That's the most shocking thing - nearly 1 in 4 voting for them (sure they have always had a large support base).

gandalf

Centaur wrote: »

There are so many ifs, buts and maybes in the post election landscape that even the legendary Ross O'Carroll Kelly couldn't call it.

Matt Cooper said the other night that he hadn't a clue what will happen. I'm inclined to agree with him.

Oh its totally up in air. I have a feeling there will be quite a few recounts called and a number of seats could be decided by a handful of votes. On one hand it is very exciting in the other it is very worrying. Looks like we are living in interesting times still as the Chinese curse goes

charlie14

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I am going to call it FG/LAB will win it by a seat or two to get a Government together. There will be no booting people out over the next 5 years I expect.

martingriff

gandalf wrote: »

It depends. I reckon that they should change leader if it looks like there will be a 2nd election this year. I have a feeling that Enda has cost them a number of seats with his lacklustre and quite frankly gombeen like performance for this election. Every time I heard him talk I cringed, there is something so insincere about him when he speaks.

The whole stability arguement with a new face at the helm will give them a boost as well I reckon.

I say the booting Enda out has started already regardless of 2nd election or not. They could not go again with him as the head only thing is how long have they do elect a new leader or will it be decide that only one emerges Only way for it not to happen is if the poll is wrong.

Jamie2k9

charlie14 wrote: »

Yes, one exit pool suggests nothing combined with 3% error, transfers will decide the outcome.

5starpool

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Yes, one exit pool suggests nothing combined with 3% error, transfers will decide the outcome.

There is close to 0% chance of FG/Lab having enough for a majority.

gandalf

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Yes, one exit pool suggests nothing combined with 3% error, transfers will decide the outcome.

The sample size is quite large at over 5000 people. Yes there is a degree of inaccuracy but even with that based on those polls I don't see them coming close to getting what they need.

BTW I was one of those polled!!!

charlie14

K-9 wrote: »

Can't see any political party being that happy with the results, FF maybe but it only 3% up on last time and SF up 5%, but not doing as well as the initial polls thought.

Disaster for FG and Labour. For the smaller parties it will come down to seat numbers but definitely no breakthrough going on these figures.

Transfers will be key going on these numbers, the Government parties will need to maximise them to get close to 70 seats to stand a chance of returning and FF will need them to offer an alternative, but it looks like FF and FG going on these numbers is the only realistic option.

Actually these exit polls show the percentage of the electorate each have recieved.

The % gain or loss from 2011 is totally different.

P.S. Even going by your figures FF should be 6% not 3%.

Aerman

Prediction: a FF / SF coalition with FF insisting Gerry stands down as leader. And like Labour now and the Greens in 2011, SF being the smaller coalition partner will be the ones punished when the next election comes around.

NIMAN

I don't see any of the majors making the compromise needed to go into Government
- FF won't be a minority partner to FG, they would lose voters.
- FF won't form a Gov with SF, again they would lose voters in future.
- FG won't side with SF, not a chance.

And all other combo's aren't enough to form a Gov, so its looking like another trip to the polls.

gandalf

Aerman wrote: »

Prediction: a FF / SF coalition with FF insisting Gerry stands down as leader. And like Labour now and the Greens in 2011, SF being the smaller coalition partner will be the ones punished when the next election comes around.

Definitely not going to happen. If SF let FF dictate to them they will be seen as FF's bitches. Also as the minority partner in a Government they would be running the risk of getting PD'ed.

charlie14

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Yes, one exit pool suggests nothing combined with 3% error, transfers will decide the outcome.

This exit poll has only a + or - margin of error of 1.2%

FG/Lab on a combined 34%, transfers wont get them anywhere near 80 seats

charlie14

The smart move by FF is to offer to support a minority FG/ Lab government.

That way they have FG/Lab by the short and curlies, still technically in opposition where they can keep an eye on SF.
If FG refused and go to the country, they will have to explain why to an electorate that would not be that keen to listen to the explaination IMO

quadrifoglio verde

charlie14 wrote: »

The smart move by FF is to offer to support a minority FG/ Lab government.

That way they have FG/Lab by the short and curlies, still technically in opposition where they can keep an eye on SF.
If FG refused and go to the country, they will have to explain why to an electorate that would not be that keen to listen to the explaination IMO

Because it's not stable.
And without Kenny at the helm, fg are much more attractive

Charles Babbage

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Because it's not stable.
And without Kenny at the helm, fg are much more attractive

Why isn't it stable? FF agree to support FG in the budget and in a motion of confidence if they agree to respect the parameters of the Fiscal Council or whatever. If FG want to pass some other law they have to interest either FF or some other others around.

Both FG and FF would be hoping to kill off some of the independents.

Richard Hillman

FG/Lab won't have near a majority but I am thinking that this exit-poll results are too surprisingly low for FG.

The UK general election had 2 opinion polls that were massively out between each other. The higher on the conservatives was the most accurate. I am not surprised with the silent FF vote. I think we were all expecting them to improve on the polls