Election Results thread

Kristopherus

marno21 wrote: »

Announcing both the Enniscorthy bypass & New Ross bypass in recent weeks helped his cause. Can also be looked at from the point of view that both important projects were delayed because he wanted to do a convenient sod turning in time for the election.

Jan O'Sullivan also now elected in Limerick which is downright bizarre.

How is it bizarre? She got sufficient transfers to get elected.

nice_guy80

Bye bye Lucinda

nice_guy80

marno21 wrote: »

Announcing both the Enniscorthy bypass & New Ross bypass in recent weeks helped his cause. Can also be looked at from the point of view that both important projects were delayed because he wanted to do a convenient sod turning in time for the election.

Jan O'Sullivan also now elected in Limerick which is downright bizarre.

Jan is a minister for education

I think she was one of the better Labour ministers

mickdw

oscarBravo wrote: »

You think? The one time I met her I recognised her straight away from her posters.

She is totally different looking. Much younger looking in reality. Poster seems very strange to be fair.

marno21

Kristopherus wrote: »

How is it bizarre? She got sufficient transfers to get elected.

I'm aware of how the voting system works, I'm not saying it's bizarre that she passed out Kieran O'Donnell and got elected.

I'm saying it's bizarre that she managed to pick up that many votes and transfers.

K-9

It's looking like SF somehow contrived to lose 1 of their 2 sure thing seats in Donegal. About 1,500 votes needed to beat Pringle.

nice_guy80

K-9 wrote: »

It's looking like SF somehow contrived to lose 1 of their 2 sure thing seats in Donegal. About 1,500 votes needed to beat Pringle.

they are not the best at vote management in SF

some very strong personalities

K-9

Recount, Gary Doherty SF was 7 votes of Shiels. Looked like Pringle was through.

Fine margins and drama!

Jayop

nice_guy80 wrote: »

they are not the best at vote management in SF

some very strong personalities

And in the north it's what they're known for.

ArmaniJeanss

K-9 wrote: »

It's looking like SF somehow contrived to lose 1 of their 2 sure thing seats in Donegal. About 1,500 votes needed to beat Pringle.

Next set of transfers is 4450 from their third candidate, should really be able to completely close the gap that 1500 gap.
(or is there maybe some geographical thing which makes Gary Docherty likely to transfer a decent proportion to Pringle???)

charlie14

Suryavarman wrote: »

The Irish electorate has elected Fianna Fail many times and they will be the second largest party by some margin. The voters are clearly not right a whole lot in Ireland at least.

You sir clearly have a problem with the democratic process.

There isn`t much I can advise you on that, other than perhaps cut back on the lemons.

They`re becoming obvious.

charlie14

K-9 wrote: »

A pro business party in one of the most pro business countries in the world.

All the anti slight changes to Abortion law FG defectors, failed in this election.

If Renua were socially liberal they'd have matched the Social Democrats no bother. Instead they'll make a slight foot note in history. Clan na Poblachta and the Farmers Party will be more significant in 50 years time.

A party that came about because of Lucinda`s hissy fit I could understand as a principle understand, but then too launch without a name ?

Absolute amateurism and dead before they even hit the water.

Add that to an attempt to out law and order the so called law and order party !

There are mental hospitals would sedate you for less.

Frank Bullitt

Having been out all day here in Van, can someone give me any indication of what the hell is going on, or rather what could happen in the next few days?

Seeing FF do as well as they have has made me sick to my stomach.

Fr Tod Umptious

Gintonious wrote: »

Having been out all day here in Van, can someone give me any indication of what the hell is going on, or rather what could happen in the next few days?

Seeing FF do as well as they have has made me sick to my stomach.

Exit polls showed FG support in mid to high 20%, FF support just below that and Lab support below 10%

So queue a day of speculation about almost everything.

Right now predictions of seats are FG low 50s, FF mid 40s, SF 20 etc.

Kenny putting out feelers to FF about some sort of a alliance last night, using terms like "stability", " less parties to negotiate with the better ", " reverse Tallagh strategy" etc.
Varadkar suggesting earlier that FG should sit on the sidelines and see what happens.

M. Martin suggesting he wants to be nominated for Taoiseach when Dail resumes.
O'Cuiv saying FF will not do deals with FG or SF.

FF can form a government but they will need support of SF plus about 15 others.

Kenny will be gone if FG do not lead the next government, and will probably step down anyway IMO in the first year if they do.

Redbishop

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Exit polls showed FG support in mid to high 20%, FF support just below that and Lab support below 10%

So queue a day of speculation about almost everything.

Right now predictions of seats are FG low 50s, FF mid 40s, SF 20 etc.

Kenny putting out feelers to FF about some sort of a alliance last night, using terms like "stability", " less parties to negotiate with the better ", " reverse Tallagh strategy" etc.
Varadkar suggesting earlier that FG should sit on the sidelines and see what happens.

M. Martin suggesting he wants to be nominated for Taoiseach when Dail resumes.
O'Cuiv saying FF will not do deals with FG or SF.

FF can form a government but they will need support of SF plus about 15 others.

Kenny will be gone if FG do not lead the next government, and will probably step down anyway IMO in the first year if they do.

Pretty good summation your reverence.

K-9

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Next set of transfers is 4450 from their third candidate, should really be able to completely close the gap that 1500 gap.
(or is there maybe some geographical thing which makes Gary Docherty likely to transfer a decent proportion to Pringle???)

SF have demanded a recount as their third candidate was 7 votes behind an Independent which would have most likely meant Pringle getting the final seat and SF losing one.

MacLochlain would need 1,500 more than Pringle and with 9.000 votes from 2 Independents to be transferred the process of elimination may be key.

Sam Russell

My prediction is that this will be thirty second dail and will be called that because that is how long it will last.

Fr Tod Umptious

Apparently the gap between FG and FF will be wider than earlier thought.

Someone Radio 1 suggesting 39 for FF now and FG in the early to mid 50s.

Every seat between them makes it much harder for FF to put that "dolly mixture" coalition together.

VincePP

K-9 wrote: »

The SD's have a base now and a big threat to Labour. The old guard are gone from Labour barring Burton.

I can see remaining labour td's reverse into SD - similar policies and a far better "brand".

Potential of being a moderate force with that combination.

VincePP

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Apparently the gap between FG and FF will be wider than earlier thought.

Someone Radio 1 suggesting 39 for FF now and FG in the early to mid 50s.

Every seat between them makes it much harder for FF to put that "dolly mixture" coalition together.

Was that someone Brian Hayes?

Almost certainly 44-45 for FF, 52-53 for FG, 20-21 for SF, 5-7 for Lab.

nice_guy80

VincePP wrote: »

I can see remaining labour td's reverse into SD - similar policies and a far better "brand".

Potential of being a moderate force with that combination.

not a hope of the oldest party disappearing like that
Joan was a very poor choice for leader

K-9

RTE radio reporting FG will lose a seat in Mayo with a FF gain, probably sums up the election.

BoJack Horseman

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Every seat between them makes it much harder for FF to put that "dolly mixture" coalition together.

That would be a shame....
There needs to be at least 60 TDs between FF & SF to lay the bedrock for any grand-left coalition.

jos28

All hot and heavy in Dublin Bay North. Bruton, Haughey and McGrath home safe with 4 candidates fighting it out for 2 places. Only 700 votes seperating O'Riordán(LAB), Broughan(IND ex Lab), Mitchell(SF) and Averil Power(IND). It's all down to the transfers. With only 2 eliminated it's going to be a long day.
There are an incredible 150 unstamped ballot papers - Broughan going mad over that and I don't blame him.

Edit - Donna Cooney (GP) just eliminated with 1055 votes

sjb25

jos28 wrote: »

There are an incredible 150 unstamped ballot papers - Broughan going mad over that and I don't blame him.

That is crazy!! how hard is it to stamp a page!!!!

sjb25

Healy Rae number 2 confirmed!!! The should have run another family member

jos28

sjb25 wrote: »

That is crazy!! how hard is it to stamp a page!!!!

It's mental - I'm wondering if they all came from the same box ??

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

sjb25

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

The person in the polling station/s didn't stamp the polling card so it can't be validated

sjb25

jos28 wrote: »

It's mental - I'm wondering if they all came from the same box ??

Don't know that but if it did should be uproar all them people mite aswell stayed at home

jos28

sjb25 wrote: »

Don't know that but if it did should be uproar all them people mite aswell stayed at home

It's my constituency and I'd go mental if my vote was wasted like that. I definitely saw mine being stamped though

K-9

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That would be a shame....
There needs to be at least 60 TDs between FF & SF to lay the bedrock for any grand-left coalition.

Pearse Doherty is very against it plus SF know opposition is in their own self interest.

Ryan looks like getting in for the Greens. Alan Kelly for Labour looks like getting in, they need 1 more to get full party rights.

Harry Palmr

If Fine Gael's campaign had been as well run as their vote management they'd not need to be so good at vote management.

Woodville56

Seems like SF going all out to promote idea of FG /FFcoalition, It's all or nothing for them, suggesting everyone else muck in while they stay aloof and await the glorious day ! Cop out, hurler on the ditch strategy. Yet they will be the first to criticise were FG or FF to adopt same strategy!

A Dub in Glasgo

Woodville56 wrote: »

Yet they will be the first to criticise were FG or FF to adopt same strategy!

Will you criticise FG or FF if they adopt the same strategy?

BoJack Horseman

K-9 wrote: »

Pearse Doherty is very against it plus SF know opposition is in their own self interest. .

Nah.... SF tell us they operate in the nations interest, not their own!
And it could very well turn out that they have no choice.

Unless SF hadn't noticed, we voted to elect a government.

IF FF & FG don't join in matrimony, they will have little choice but to form a government with FF and the other left wing parties.

If they run but consider themselves unfit to govern, they should say so.

Howjoe1

Can understand the SF promotion of a FG/FF coalition. The blend of the sameness would be hard to separate in the future, leaving SF as the main party in waiting in 4/5 year's time.

Harry Palmr

Shinners want the opposition half of the pitch to themselves. They know that they could be in the happy position of being the only party outside of government with full speaking rights so by default they would be the only consistent voice on that side of the house.

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If they run but consider themselves unfit to govern, they should say so.

Applies to both FG & FF if they do not form the Government

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Applies to both FG & FF if they do not form the Government

Indeed... and if we have to vote again, a plague on all their houses.

But the left have had a noisy 5 years giving us a lot of heat, but little light.
The Left have collectively had an excellent election..... now they need to step up.

...And Justice

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Shinners want the opposition half of the pitch to themselves. They know that they could be in the happy position of being the only party outside of government with full speaking rights so by default they would be the only consistent voice on that side of the house.

Correct Harry, the people have voted to get rid of FG, if FG and FF go in together, that's not what people wanted, particulary if FG lead the government, we will be back here in 6 months talking about an SF government.

K-9

Harry Palmr wrote: »

If Fine Gael's campaign had been as well run as their vote management they'd not need to be so good at vote management.

Yeah, probably get more seats than 07 with a percent or 2 less. They might get 2 seats in Louth with about 20% of the vote.

I think they've benefited from FF not expecting such a good performance plus with so many Labour eliminations they are getting enough transfers.

Think luck is a lot of it, a percent lower and they'd have lost a good few.

Woodville56

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Will you criticise FG or FF if they adopt the same strategy?

I didn't go before the electorate seeking a mandate to govern, SF did and are now running a mile at the prospect of being called upon to make up the numbers to form a government. It's their way or no way !
And yes , FG have lost this election so I believe they should go into opposition now, whereas SF have increased their vote and representation,

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Fr Tod Umptious

...And Justice wrote: »

Correct Harry, the people have voted to get rid of FG, if FG and FF go in together, that's not what people wanted, particulary if FG lead the government, we will be back here in 6 months talking about an SF government.

It will take a lot more than 6 months to get a SF lead government.

They will only go in as the main party and right now they are still only about a third the way to being the largest party of any left coalition, based on the assumptions that they would need around 60 seats minimum to anchor a anywhere near stable left wing coalition.

...And Justice

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

It will take a lot more than 6 months to get a SF lead government.

They will only go in as the main party and right now they are still only about a third the way to being the largest party of any left coalition, based on the assumptions that they would need around 60 seats minimum to anchor a anywhere near stable left wing coalition.

I disagree, if FG lead the next government, we will see the FF votes go to SF, FF saying they would abolish IW 3 months ago has had a huge impact on this election

A Dub in Glasgo

Woodville56 wrote: »

I didn't go before the electorate seeking a mandate to govern, SF did and are now running a mile at the prospect of being called upon to make up the numbers to form a government. It's their way or no way !
And yes , FG have lost this election so I believe they should go into opposition now, whereas SF have increased their vote and representation,

so the answer is no then

sjb25

Gerry on rte "SF are not going to prop up FF or FG in the national interest"

K-9

The only thing is FF are seen as the party of Government, even now, so it might not affect them as much as Labour.

FF getting criticised, well more Willie O'Dea and Keleher for not having running mates.

Hard to know, vote could get split like SF in Donegal who are in a struggle to return what are 2 safe seats.

timmyntc

Woodville56 wrote: »

I didn't go before the electorate seeking a mandate to govern, SF did and are now running a mile at the prospect of being called upon to make up the numbers to form a government. It's their way or no way !
And yes , FG have lost this election so I believe they should go into opposition now, whereas SF have increased their vote and representation,

Why should FG go into opposition depite being on course to earn the most seats?
Just because a party made some significant losses does not mean they 'lost' an election. They are still the most popular party and therefore the majority of people chose them to lead. Like it or not (I don't), thats the way our flavour of democracy works. It works in absolutes, not in yearly or 4 yearly trends.