Election Results thread

...And Justice

I'm sitting here watching the ads, and it's all about the grand coalition, jeez RTE are really pulling out the stuff out of their arses at this point, we are being conditioned for it.

It will be the end of FG and FF if it happens.

BoJack Horseman

FG (finally) overtake FF in the seat count.
31 to 30.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

K-9

A third candidate might have split the vote with 2 strong SF candidates and a FG seat there, plus a couple of strong Independents running. 10 years ago 3FF would have been guaranteed.

Fr Tod Umptious

...And Justice wrote: »

I disagree, if FG lead the next government, we will see the FF votes go to SF, FF saying they would abolish IW 3 months ago has had a huge impact on this election

No way SF are finding 40 extra seats this side of the third decade of the century

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

timmyntc

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

No way SF are finding 40 extra seats this side of the third decade of the century

They've been on a near constant upward trend, recently, building up the partys support slowly and steadily. Without Adams at the helm for the next election, Mary Lou or Pearse Doherty could well turn SF into a viable centre left party for the majority of the country, as opposed to the extremely polarizing view of SF that people have nowadays.

Also nobody knows what could happen to Govt parties on reelection, look at Labour's losses this year, of FF's losses before that. No reason that SF as main opposition couldn't garner support at the expense of a FF/FG coalition.

...And Justice

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

No way SF are finding 40 extra seats this side of the third decade of the century

Don't be so sure, if a the coalition is the same as the last 5 years, people will vote elsewhere.

Centaur

Peadar Tobin, who I think is an arch hypocrite, is saying he can't ever remember a political party being targetted by a national newspaper.

I can.

The Independent, which is obviously the paper he is referring to, have previous. He should look up the "It's Payback Time" front page editorial on the day of the 1997 election.

Woodville56

timmyntc wrote: »

Why should FG go into opposition depite being on course to earn the most seats?
Just because a party made some significant losses does not mean they 'lost' an election. They are still the most popular party and therefore the majority of people chose them to lead. Like it or not (I don't), thats the way our flavour of democracy works. It works in absolutes, not in yearly or 4 yearly trends.

FG have lost the mandate on which they contested this election - returning a FG /Lab government. The prerogative to take part in a new government should be at their own deciding and not because SF want it that way. Gerry Adams on rte radio a while ago, again refusing the coalition option and talking about a "tsunami of negativity" against SF. Still managing to play the victim, despite their gains ! Class act !

timmyntc

Woodville56 wrote: »

FG have lost the mandate on which they contested this election - returning a FG /Lab government. The prerogative to take part in a new government should be at their own deciding and not because SF want it that way. Gerry Adams on rte radio a while ago, again refusing the coalition option and talking about a "tsunami of negativity" against SF. Still managing to play the victim, despite their gains ! Class act !

Well that's all well and good, however the drastic contrast between FG votes and Labour votes shows that while the people don't want a FG/LAB coalition, they are happy to have FG in power in some capacity.

As for Gerry Adams well of course he's going to do what he always does and try and play the victim, it's all he's used to; however his hand has essentially been forced, it's no secret the media bias against SF and Adams in this country, pre election it was no better than usual to put it lightly.
It wouldnt surprise me if some of the drop in SF votes from pre-election polls to the real deal were due to the 'tsunami of negativity' in the media surrounding SF.

A Dub in Glasgo

Rock for FG has been elected in my old constituency of Dublin NW

K-9

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Nothing on local media, it's a full recount AFAIK. SF hope Gary Doherty will get the 8 votes needed to overtake Shiels which would give Pearse a surplus after Gary is eliminated hopefully pushing MacLochlain over the line.

It's 1,400 or so votes though and Pringle might pick up transfers from the 2 other Independents. Pringle is ex SF so might do all right in SF transfers. Basically I don't have a clue!

Enda's third FG seat in Mayo looks gone, FF gain.

nice_guy80

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Rock for FG has been elected in my old constituency of Dublin NW

Solid candidate him

devnull

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Rock for FG has been elected in my old constituency of Dublin NW

You'd never have thought FG would get a seat there.

K-9

FG seem to be picking up bonus seats, I'd say so many outgoing Labour TD eliminations are helping them.

An increase in female TD's in this election, about 18/19%. With a good few Labour ones not getting returned that's a good performance.

velo.2010

FF fecked up in Clare and Sligo-Leitrim by running 3 candidates and splitting the vote. Perhaps, they're setting the tone for future elections by building the profiles of newcomers and hoping for 3 in the future. Still, bad vote management.

Oh, and apparently Fianna Fail are lead by Michelle Martin according to Sky News.

ancapailldorcha

K-9 wrote: »

Nothing on local media, it's a full recount AFAIK. SF hope Gary Doherty will get the 8 votes needed to overtake Shiels which would give Pearse a surplus after Gary is eliminated hopefully pushing MacLochlain over the line.

It's 1,400 or so votes though and Pringle might pick up transfers from the 2 other Independents. Pringle is ex SF so might do all right in SF transfers. Basically I don't have a clue!

Enda's third FG seat in Mayo looks gone, FF gain.

Is Gary Doherty anything to Pearse?

K-9

3 candidates is odd when they only ran 1 in Limerick city and county also.

K-9

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Is Gary Doherty anything to Pearse?

Not that I know of, different parts of the county, Gary is Castlefin I think.

uck51js9zml2yt

sjb25 wrote: »

That is crazy!! how hard is it to stamp a page!!!!

Its not hard but having worked on a poll its very easy in a busy station to get distracted between tearing off the paper and handing it to the voter.

Pretzill

velo.2010 wrote: »

FF fecked up in Clare and Sligo-Leitrim by running 3 candidates and splitting the vote. Perhaps, they're setting the tone for future elections by building the profiles of newcomers and hoping for 3 in the future. Still, bad vote management.

Oh, and apparently Fianna Fail are lead by Michelle Martin according to Sky News.

I think in the case of Sligo Leitrim it's a messy one because that takes in part of Cavan and Donegal - Looks like it could be 2FG 1FF and 1SF but the last seat could go to FF or FG - (they both put up 3) and it also looks like all 4 seats will be taken without reaching the quota - which to me shows a widespread scattered vote -

velo.2010

Fine Gael will get 2 in Galway West on 24% of the vote. O'Cuiv on his own got 24.2%.

Stheno

James Reilly gone in Fingal

Inquitus

Stheno wrote: »

James Reilly gone in Fingal

Aye he was gone after the last elimination, he needed nigh on half of the FF Clifford-Lees vote to overtake the SF Candidate Louise O'Reilly, which was never going to happen.

Grab All Association

Tom Hayes gone Tipperary

K-9

Alan Kelly in with Seamus Healy in Tipp.

Had to laugh at somebody on radio suggesting Kelly's deputy leader position maybe under threat. Who else would you put in?

Pretzill

K-9 wrote: »

Alan Kelly in with Seamus Healy in Tipp.

Had to laugh at somebody on radio suggesting Kelly's deputy leader position maybe under threat. Who else would you put in?

Joan Burton

...And Justice

I see James Reilly on the TV, he reminds me of Brendan Grace in father ted for some reason.

sjb25

...And Justice wrote: »

I see James Reilly on the TV, he reminds me of Brendan Grace in father ted for some reason.

He does .... This be him tonight

timmyntc

Gary Doherty and Dessie Shiels' votes getting recounted here in Letterkenny after the recheck which just finished.

BoJack Horseman

Stheno wrote: »

James Reilly gone in Fingal

That means the 2 lieutenants that kept Enda in his post at their last leadership challenge are gone (Reilly & Big Phil).

If Enda clings on & is challenged, who will rally to him?

Jayop

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That means the 2 lieutenants that kept Enda in his post at their last leadership challenge are gone (Reilly & Big Phil).

If Enda clings on & is challenged, who will rally to him?

He's a dead man walking. No way can he hold on here.

In fairness it's probably good for the country in the long run if these two parties pair up. Give a genuine right and allow a genuine large left party to emerge. Be that SF, sd's or a rebuilt labour it's the way politics should be. It's been a nonsense for so long with lefties proping up right leaning governments.

K-9

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That means the 2 lieutenants that kept Enda in his post at their last leadership challenge are gone (Reilly & Big Phil).

If Enda clings on & is challenged, who will rally to him?

Posted the same in AH, Charlie Flanagan critical of the strategy that took rural Ireland for granted, Flannery as well. I can't see Enda lasting long. Jaysus, he really threw it all away!

...And Justice

Jesus Willie O Dea making a fool of himself, straight to the IRA stuff, this line is getting old.

Fr Tod Umptious

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That means the 2 lieutenants that kept Enda in his post at their last leadership challenge are gone (Reilly & Big Phil).

If Enda clings on & is challenged, who will rally to him?

If he fails to lead the next govt after this election then he will resign.

If no govt is formed from this election then he will resign before the next election is called.

If he can form a govt then he will stay on for about a year and then step down.
He has already indicated that he will not lead FG into another election

jos28

Anyone else see a possible FG/LAB/SD coalition on the cards ?

Inquitus

jos28 wrote: »

Anyone else see a possible FG/LAB/SD coalition on the cards ?

54+6+3 = 63 requiring 79 for a majority, means 16 Independents or others required. No I don't see that being possible. Propping up a minority FG Gov isn't going to do any small party any good.

Balmed Out

jos28 wrote:

Anyone else see a possible FG/LAB/SD coalition on the cards ?

Surely well short number wise

BoJack Horseman

jos28 wrote: »

Anyone else see a possible FG/LAB/SD coalition on the cards ?

There are 37 seats up for grabs still.

36 of them would need to go to that coalition option to have a majoity.

dublinman1990

Just heard that the election coverage on RTE will run up until 6pm. Programmes that were scheduled earlier in the day are now cancelled.

Taco Chips

Jayop wrote: »

He's a dead man walking. No way can he hold on here.

In fairness it's probably good for the country in the long run if these two parties pair up. Give a genuine right and allow a genuine large left party to emerge. Be that SF, sd's or a rebuilt labour it's the way politics should be. It's been a nonsense for so long with lefties proping up right leaning governments.

I disagree. I think polarised large parties leads to a terrible political system. Look at the democrats/republicans in the US and the state of bipartisan politics with a left leaning president unable to pass laws through a right leaning congress. Fracturing of politics allows extremes to build and fortunately in Ireland we've been spared that over the last century. Centrist parties with mild leanings that change from issue to issue have served us well. There are issues for sure but its definitely better than the alternative.

Harry Angstrom

Coppinger looking as cheerful as ever on TV there.......

NapoleonInRags

Jaysus, Kate O'Connell is easy on the eye.....

oscarBravo

sjb25 wrote: »

The person in the polling station/s didn't stamp the polling card so it can't be validated

Whatever about the polling station staff, it amazes me that voters don't know that this is necessary. I checked that mine was clearly punched before I took it into the booth.

Elemonator

gandalf wrote: »

If that's accurate there will be a fair few well known fallers tomorrow.

I have a feeling that Joan Burton is definitely gone.

Burty got back in I am afraid.

oscarBravo

Jayop wrote: »

I only seen her on vb and I thought she looked nothing like the posters I've seen

Maybe we have different ideas of "looking nothing like".

BoJack Horseman

34 seats to be decided & a Grand left-wing coalition of FF/SF/SD/IA/AAA is just 15 seats from home.

Stheno

Coverage appears to be finished on RTE

...And Justice

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

34 seats to be decided & a Grand left-wing coalition of FF/SF/SD/IA/AAA is just 15 seats from home.

Can't see that happening, the AAA are comfortable in opposition, that's where they want to be, they never envisioned being in government because they would have to make good on policies that they could never implement, it's time they were put to bed for good.