Election Results thread

Kristopherus

Earthhorse wrote: »

If FF are sincere and true reform of the Dail were sought and accomplished whereby we would have rule by parliament rather than rule by government this could be a good thing.

Sincerety and FF parted company in 1997:D. It'll take them more than a few weeks to find out what it is again:D

Earthhorse

oscarBravo wrote: »

Imma stop you right there.

Kristopherus wrote: »

Sincerety and FF parted company in 1997:D. It'll take them more than a few weeks to find out what it is again:D

It will be obvious by their actions if they aren't. We'll have to see.

Ren2k7

Looks like SF's last chance at hitting 23 TD's appear to be in Dublin Bay North where they're in third position behind Haughey (ugh!) Averil Power is likely soon for elimination who's transfers will possibly help push Haughey over the line.

bren2001

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Looks like SF's last chance at hitting 23 TD's appear to be in Dublin Bay North where they're in third position behind Haughey (ugh!) Averil Power is likely soon for elimination who's transfers will possibly help push Haughey over the line.

Power is 67 behind Broughan according to people in the RDS. Most likely, she will call for a recount.

Kristopherus

Recount in Wexford according to the Wexford People.

Ren2k7

bren2001 wrote: »

Power is 67 behind Broughan according to people in the RDS. Most likely, she will call for a recount.

It'll probably not make any difference overall.

bren2001

Ren2k7 wrote: »

It'll probably not make any difference overall.

Power is Dublin North East, Broughan could transfer well to her if eliminated. Its between McGrath, Broughan and Power for that last seat seemingly. Don't have the exact figures to see the swing required to catch McGrath.

A Dub in Glasgo

bren2001 wrote: »

Power is 67 behind Broughan according to people in the RDS. Most likely, she will call for a recount.

She is miles behind Broughan

Ren2k7

Looks like FG's Reynolds is preparing to concede defeat to FF in Sligo-Leitrim, wrapping up the count there.

bren2001

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

She is miles behind Broughan

O'Callaghans transfers are not accounted for in that. Im basing it off what Haugheys people are telling me (I did his tally yesterday as a favor for someone).

Ren2k7

bren2001 wrote: »

Power is Dublin North East, Broughan could transfer well to her if eliminated. Its between McGrath, Broughan and Power for that last seat seemingly. Don't have the exact figures to see the swing required to catch McGrath.

Broughan is ahead of Power. She'd be first to go.

bren2001

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Broughan is ahead of Power. She'd be first to go.

Naturally. However, if she calls for a recount. 67 isn't a crazy number to make up. If so, she will transfer well to Broughan and Haughey which still puts pressure on McGrath.

TripleC

Earthhorse wrote: »

If FF are sincere and true reform of the Dail were sought and accomplished whereby we would have rule by parliament rather than rule by government this could be a good thing.

FF sincere.....you are kidding surely???!!!

Their entire campaign was disingenuous and based entirely around telling voters especially those in rural areas that somebody else is doing alot better then they are.

Even their grand scheme today of turning the entire Dail into a Government by committee was obviously just a time buying exercise so that they can get candidates and funding in place and then cause an Election at a time that most suits themselves.

Furthermore, if FF were sincere about Dail Reform they would have reformed it circa 1987-2011 when they were in power for 22 out of 25 years!

Necro

Ren2k7 wrote:

Looks like FG's Reynolds is preparing to concede defeat to FF in Sligo-Leitrim, wrapping up the count there.

Amazing comeback from Scanlon who was almost 1,500 behind at one point.

A Dub in Glasgo

bren2001 wrote: »

Naturally. However, if she calls for a recount. 67 isn't a crazy number to make up.

I think it is and will just prolong the elimination

votecounts

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Looks like SF's last chance at hitting 23 TD's appear to be in Dublin Bay North where they're in third position behind Haughey (ugh!) Averil Power is likely soon for elimination who's transfers will possibly help push Haughey over the line.

they still have a chance in longford/westmeath, don't they

Ren2k7

bren2001 wrote: »

Naturally. However, if she calls for a recount. 67 isn't a crazy number to make up. If so, she will transfer well to Broughan and Haughey which still puts pressure on McGrath.

We'll have to see where O'Callaghan's transfers go first which will probably go all over the place.

Earthhorse

TripleC wrote: »

Furthermore, if FF were sincere about Dail Reform they would have reformed it circa 1987-2011 when they were in power for 22 out of 25 years!

I put the if in there for a reason. Sorry I'm not as cynical about progress as you are.

Ren2k7

votecounts wrote: »

they still have a chance in longford/westmeath, don't they

Slim but it's likely that if as expected Bannon is eliminated then his transers will push Penrose ahead of Hogan. Though there's currently a recount underway as FF's Gerety-Quinn is a mere 38 votes behind Bannon. It'll probably be tomorrow before we find out the final result.

A Dub in Glasgo

votecounts wrote: »

they still have a chance in longford/westmeath, don't they

Outside chance

bren2001

Ren2k7 wrote: »

We'll have to see where O'Callaghan's transfers go first which will probably go all over the place.

Well the 67 gap is taking O'Callaghans transfers into account and its all but confirmed that a recount will take place.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I think it is and will just prolong the elimination

1% error isn't crazy. Im sure those disputed ballot papers will have another run through as well.

A Dub in Glasgo

bren2001 wrote: »

1% error isn't crazy. Im sure those disputed ballot papers will have another run through as well.

So it is a full recount rather than a recount of the transfers?

bren2001

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So it is a full recount rather than a recount of the transfers?

Full recount 11 am tomorrow.

EDIT: Confirmed by newstalk: https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/704080688929230848/photo/1

Necro

4 candidates elected for Sligo/Leitrim constituency are:
1. Marc MacSharry (FF)
2. Martin Kenny (SF)
3. Tony McLoughlin (FG)
4. Eamon Scanlon (FF)

Amazing that FF regain the two seats they lost in 2011. SF retain their seat and FG lose one of theirs.

Ren2k7

Just five constituencies remaining to finish up:

Dublin Bay North
Dublin South-Central
Dublin South-West
Longford-Westmeath
Wexford

And the national picture:



Nearly there.

Ren2k7

As expected the SD's O'Callaghan's transfers went all over the place:



I note that SF are still struggling to attract those vital transfers.

wokingvoter

Have AAA/PBP any more seats to pick up do you think? Excellent info on this thread. Thanks to all

Centaur

Paudie Coffey giving Frank McBrearty a run for his money.

“To all the trolls and abusers on social media who like to personally attack politicians you can go piss off now and think about standing yourself as a candidate to see if you’ll do any better.”

NIMAN

Centaur wrote: »

Paudie Coffey giving Frank McBrearty a run for his money.

“To all the trolls and abusers on social media who like to personally attack politicians you can go piss off now and think about standing yourself as a candidate to see if you’ll do any better.”

Harry Palmr

That's it for Labour on six seats or is it? They desperately need to bag the final spot in Dublin Bay North as far as I can tell to give them speaking rights.

TCDStudent1

Harry Palmr wrote: »

That's it for Labour on six seats or is it? They desperately need to bag the final spot in Dublin Bay North as far as I can tell to give them speaking rights.

Willie penrose still has an outside shot to make it 7 I think?

Jamie2k9

Harry Palmr wrote: »

That's it for Labour on six seats or is it? They desperately need to bag the final spot in Dublin Bay North as far as I can tell to give them speaking rights.

They are not looking to bad Longford/Westmeath, 1/4 filled and they are neck and neck with SF for final sport with SF ahead by around 250 votes however they could get it with when 1 FF and 1 FG knocked out.

TCDStudent1

I wonder if the social democrats are disappointed. They got 3 seats but really they were 3 relatively safe seats. Given how well they were received pre - election, I'd have thought they might get a couple more seats along with their high profile 3 seats.

NIMAN

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

I wonder if the social democrats are disappointed. They got 3 seats but really they were 3 relatively safe seats. Given how well they were received pre - election, I'd have thought they might get a couple more seats along with their high profile 3 seats.

I'd say they are fairly happy, its a longer game for them and can see them getting a lot more popular if they keep talking sense.

The Randy Riverbeast

It was an ok result for SD. They kept seats they already had as a new party but didn't gain anything. Their other candidates did ok even if they didn't get any seats. They have potential to grow at least, we saw that people can easily reject a new party.

Loafing Oaf

NIMAN wrote: »

I'd say they are fairly happy, its a longer game for them and can see them getting a lot more popular if they keep talking sense.

Maybe not such a long game:

A number of Fianna Fáil TDs have expressed reservations about a possible “grand coalition” with Fine Gael. “We are staying out of government with Fine Gael” said Dara Calleary who was returned to his Dáil seat in Mayo. He also ruled out a coalition with Sinn Féin but said the party would be open to governing with the Social Democrats.

Hold everything, I think we've found our government!

Ren2k7

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Maybe not such a long game:



Hold everything, I think we've found our government!

These coalition discussions could very well tear apart FF and FG causing much bitterness and resentment on all sides.

JP Liz V1

How did Kerry end up? Did Ferris and Brassil join Healy Raes?

Ren2k7

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

How did Kerry end up? Did Ferris and Brassil join Healy Raes?

Yep.

brooke 2

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

I wonder if the social democrats are disappointed. They got 3 seats but really they were 3 relatively safe seats. Given how well they were received pre - election, I'd have thought they might get a couple more seats along with their high profile 3 seats.

I heard Stephen Donnelly say that he expected to get seven. The interviewer
said it might be five. Based on that, I'd say they might be a bit disappointed,
in spite of the three of them topping the polls in their respective areas.

4ensic15

Parties have come and gone before. Only the current big 4 have persisted since the 1930s. All others have disappeared or been absorbed into one or other of the big 4. Only exception is the Greens who have lasted longer than this election.

Woodville56

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Willie penrose still has an outside shot to make it 7 I think?

Just heard Willie Penrose on Morning Ireland a while ago, still fairly sure he is losing his seat despite full recount later at request of a FF candidate. Sad to see him go, a decent hardworking representative, one of the good guys and a big loss to his constituency - a lot worse than him still standing in that constituency unfortunately !

Redbishop

Woodville56 wrote: »

Just heard Willie Penrose on Morning Ireland a while ago, still fairly sure he is losing his seat despite full recount later at request of a FF candidate. Sad to see him go, a decent hardworking representative, one of the good guys and a big loss to his constituency - a lot worse than him still standing in that constituency unfortunately !

Yeah, that's my constituency and he got my number one, very sad if he doesn't make it Imo.
Gerety-Quinn, FF, who called for the recount was next to be eliminated at the time and her transfers would probably put him out, but still not a certainty.

K-9

Harry Palmr wrote: »

That's it for Labour on six seats or is it? They desperately need to bag the final spot in Dublin Bay North as far as I can tell to give them speaking rights.

O'Riordain might make it.

They need it or else we'll have a very disparate opposition with only SF with full party status in the Dail if the big 2 join up.

bren2001

K-9 wrote: »

O'Riordain might make it.

They need it or else we'll have a very disparate opposition with only SF with full party status in the Dail if the big 2 join up.

O'Riordain will make it, I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

K-9

bren2001 wrote: »

O'Riordain will make it, I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

Yeah, think that myself. Some drop for the Government, losing about 50 seats from the last election.

BoatMad

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, think that myself. Some drop for the Government, losing about 50 seats from the last election.

well labours 2011 vote was never in a mont of sundays going to hold up , in fact all we have seen in this election is a return to the slow crumbling away of the larger parties that started in 2007, Labour are back to typical numbers consistent with their history , FG borrowed FF votes have gone home.

SF struggling to accelerate in a field festooned with the radical left, Ultimately they want a FF FG coalition because they need to access the republican left of centre FF voters, especially in the rural areas, where SF are struggling

Anyway this count is irrelevant , well be back to the polls very soon

padd b1975

K-9 wrote: »

Yeah, think that myself. Some drop for the Government, losing about 50 seats from the last election.

Rejected utterly, no doubt about that.

BoatMad

padd b1975 wrote: »

Rejected utterly, no doubt about that.

I would disagree, FG remains the largest party in the state, with a higher percentage of the vote compared to 2007, with similar seats. The party did quite well in the Dublin region. all the really happened is that the 2011 election has been discarded and its back to " normal party politics"

The left is in an utter mess, with 10s of single issue candidates


Labour were always going to get massacred and in my view FG should have gone to the polls discarding labour , who were clinging on like a drowning man.

Kenny has a lot to answer for and I suspect he's a dead man walking.

There will be a new election very soon anyway , so this one is irrelevant

K-9

BoatMad wrote: »

well labours 2011 vote was never in a mont of sundays going to hold up , in fact all we have seen in this election is a return to the slow crumbling away of the larger parties that started in 2007, Labour are back to typical numbers consistent with their history , FG borrowed FF votes have gone home.

SF struggling to accelerate in a field festooned with the radical left, Ultimately they want a FF FG coalition because they need to access the republican left of centre FF voters, especially in the rural areas, where SF are struggling

Anyway this count is irrelevant , well be back to the polls very soon

Don't think we'll ever see Labour at 30 or 40 seats again though, unless SF really balls it up. SD are a big threat to Labour as well if they build up a council base for the next GE, assuming we do get a Government.