Election Results thread

BoatMad

K-9 wrote: »

Don't think we'll ever see Labour at 30 or 40 seats again though, unless SF really balls it up. SD are a big threat to Labour as well if they build up a council base for the next GE, assuming we do get a Government.

Yes indeed , Labour Clothes have been stolen, but out of government it will return to a typical 10-12 seat party it always has been.

The massive 2011 vote was a blocking attempt by certain left wingers to try and prevent the worst excesses of a FG majority government.

It was never a real labour vote and they were never going to hold on to it ,

People need to stop comparing this election to 2011, which was an outlier of an election, you need to compare it to 2007

K-9

It's hard to compare to 07 or any others though either. The days of 1 party getting 70 seats or 36/37% maybe over, so no 1 big and 1 small party coalitions gone.

Very hard to see 5 years down the line, who'd have thought this Government would throw away the biggest majority ever.

The 2 and a half party system is gone anyway, what has replaced it, time will tell!

BoatMad

Very hard to see 5 years down the line, who'd have thought this Government would throw away the biggest majority ever.

none but none expect Labour to retain anything like its 2011 seat count , even if FG had retained every seat, the Gov was never going to be returned

eigrod

BoatMad wrote: »

I would disagree, FG remains the largest party in the state, with a higher percentage of the vote compared to 2007, with similar seats. The party did quite well in the Dublin region. all the really happened is that the 2011 election has been discarded and its back to " normal party politics"

The left is in an utter mess, with 10s of single issue candidates


Labour were always going to get massacred and in my view FG should have gone to the polls discarding labour , who were clinging on like a drowning man.

Kenny has a lot to answer for and I suspect he's a dead man walking.

There will be a new election very soon anyway , so this one is irrelevant

FG and Labour will surely have new leaders, should there be a new election very soon and one would assume they will each ditch each other in advance of the election.

Will be very interesting to see if that will lead to any sort of bounce for either party.

BoatMad

eigrod wrote: »

FG and Labour will surely have new leaders, should there be a new election very soon and one would assume they will each ditch each other in advance of the election.

Will be very interesting to see if that will lead to any sort of bounce for either party.

Labour will over time return to typical average Labour numbers, circa 10-12 seats , mostly on the back of constituency work, ( howlin shows how it can be done)

FG will ditch Kenny , he was always a liability and more so in the face of Martins ability. clearly it will be either Coveneny or Varadkar. personally I suspect the party doesnt trust Varadkar as he's too forthright . Be strange to have both leaders of the largest parties from the same constituency ,

Burton is definitely gone , she was only a holding leader anyway. Howlin will be very reluctant to take the reins, I cant see Kelly making leader , it might be JO'S

K-9

No one would have predicted struggling to get 7 seats either, Labour always get punished for going into Government but never to this extent, even in 87 they got 12 seats coming from a smaller base vote.

Enda threw away this election over the last week as well, they really should have had 75 seats minimum between them which would have been workable to get some type of coalition going.

TCDStudent1

BoatMad wrote: »

Labour will over time return to typical average Labour numbers, circa 10-12 seats , mostly on the back of constituency work, ( howlin shows how it can be done)

FG will ditch Kenny , he was always a liability and more so in the face of Martins ability. clearly it will be either Coveneny or Varadkar. personally I suspect the party doesnt trust Varadkar as he's too forthright . Be strange to have both leaders of the largest parties from the same constituency ,

Burton is definitely gone , she was only a holding leader anyway. Howlin will be very reluctant to take the reins, I cant see Kelly making leader , it might be JO'S

Wouldn't rule out Frances Fitzgerald for that leadership contest.

BoatMad

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

Wouldn't rule out Frances Fitzgerald for that leadership contest.

true

bren2001

BoatMad wrote: »

Burton is definitely gone , she was only a holding leader anyway. Howlin will be very reluctant to take the reins, I cant see Kelly making leader , it might be JO'S

It's hard to see Burton staying on but I don't agree she was a holding leader. 10 seats would have been a good return for Labour and she would have held the reins if she achieved this. However, she ran a poor campaign where she isolated voters and failed to highlight Labours success in Govt. Her lack of charisma is shocking.

In terms of a new leader, I would have back Alex White before he lost his seat. However, out of the remaining, Howlin won't (and shouldn't) take it nor will Sherlock go for it. I think O'Riordain has a good chance and would be my choice.

Christy42

eigrod wrote: »

FG and Labour will surely have new leaders, should there be a new election very soon and one would assume they will each ditch each other in advance of the election.

Will be very interesting to see if that will lead to any sort of bounce for either party.

I don't get this logic. FG won the most seats of any party. Why would they ditch their leader? They were unlikely to hold the gains from 2011 as a lot of the seats won were won on the basis of not being FF. No that the crash has largely been forgotten they lost some of those seats. I have no particular love of Fine Gael but I never have. I do have to admit that the voters fairly conclusively have given the responsibility of talking about a new government to Kenny and to a lesser extent Martin.

Would you suggest they have a leadership battle while they should be talking about who should form the next government? Should they ditch Kenny just as soon as he has negotiated out a program for government (suddenly leaving their new partners either unsure of where they stand or having the new leader essentially following Kenny's last orders)?

K-9

FG should have got over 30% easily in this election, Enda was the reason they didn't, his own gaffes and Martin outshone him in the campaign. It is very hard to see him continuing as leader, in Government or opposition

Mr.Micro

K-9 wrote: »

FG should have got over 30% easily in this election, Enda was the reason they didn't, his own gaffes and Martin outshone him in the campaign. It is very hard to see him continuing as leader, in Government or opposition

He is unpopular because of all the decisions, water charges and all the other stuff that his Government is associated with. We can all go back to pretending that the Debt is gone, the water will be fine etc, as in no need for standardizaion of water etc, no need to get a grip with reality or take collective responsibility for all that has gone wrong in the last 10-15 years, all that Celtic tiger stuff, Shure, that was someone else caused that.

He lacks charisma, but IMO he is a decent guy. FG does need a new frontman with charisma and a bit of aggression and attitude. I can't see one in the ranks of FG at the minute. He should step aside now in the next few weeks.

eigrod

Christy42 wrote: »

I don't get this logic. FG won the most seats of any party. Why would they ditch their leader? They were unlikely to hold the gains from 2011 as a lot of the seats won were won on the basis of not being FF. No that the crash has largely been forgotten they lost some of those seats. I have no particular love of Fine Gael but I never have. I do have to admit that the voters fairly conclusively have given the responsibility of talking about a new government to Kenny and to a lesser extent Martin.

Would you suggest they have a leadership battle while they should be talking about who should form the next government? Should they ditch Kenny just as soon as he has negotiated out a program for government (suddenly leaving their new partners either unsure of where they stand or having the new leader essentially following Kenny's last orders)?

All of what you say is true, but image is clearly a factor and Enda's public persona (and performance in the debates) was clearly unable to attract the additional votes they needed to swing, maybe 10 more seats ?

I think he is a good leader and has a done a good job in difficult circumstances, but I really feel a huge number of people are influenced by image & persona. Bertie Ahern and Charlie Haughey had it - so many people didn't care what they were up to, but the image was good.

Christy42

eigrod wrote: »

All of what you say is true, but image is clearly a factor and Enda's public persona (and performance in the debates) was clearly unable to attract the additional votes they needed to swing, maybe 10 more seats ?

I think he is a good leader and has a done a good job in difficult circumstances, but I really feel a huge number of people are influenced by image & persona. Bertie Ahern and Charlie Haughey had it - so many people didn't care what they were up to, but the image was good.

The timing is still wrong. A leadership contest gives them no say in the next government and would cause havoc for them if another election was called. He has done well enough that he can't be challenged in the near future. In a few months it is definitely a possibility.

I agree he cost them votes in terms of personality but they lose their entire campaign slogan of stability with upheaval in their own party. Until the dust settles on this election and we have a new government in place that proves stable for a few months we won't have the challenge.

eigrod

Christy42 wrote: »

The timing is still wrong. A leadership contest gives them no say in the next government and would cause havoc for them if another election was called. He has done well enough that he can't be challenged in the near future. In a few months it is definitely a possibility.

I agree he cost them votes in terms of personality but they lose their entire campaign slogan of stability with upheaval in their own party. Until the dust settles on this election and we have a new government in place that proves stable for a few months we won't have the challenge.

But if they don't change leader before another election (assuming there will be one), what will they have to offer the people that will be any different to what they were offering in the last 6 weeks ? He had already said he was stepping down during the term of the next Government anyway.

Ren2k7

Woodville56 wrote: »

Just heard Willie Penrose on Morning Ireland a while ago, still fairly sure he is losing his seat despite full recount later at request of a FF candidate. Sad to see him go, a decent hardworking representative, one of the good guys and a big loss to his constituency - a lot worse than him still standing in that constituency unfortunately !

I was surprised by that from Penrose. I honestly expected him to scrape through. Longford-WM is proving to be a brutal count, though to be expected. I voted in the constituency and the ballot paper was longer than my arm!

BTW, does anyone know why they're having the count in the tiny village of Kenagh of all places? It doesn't even have a proper broadband connection FFS!

Ren2k7

K-9 wrote: »

No one would have predicted struggling to get 7 seats either.

They were always expected to get decimated. Earlier polls had suggested Labour might have even struggled to take ANY seats so for them to enter the Dáil with 7 is actually somewhat fortunate for them. They could have easily ended up like the Greens in 2011 and PD's in '07. More's the pity.

Ren2k7

Things hopefully wrapping up soon in L-WM:

https://twitter.com/RTElongfordWMH/status/704340907982630912

A Dub in Glasgo

So, another few recounts today that made no difference other than prolong the elimination

Wexford - SF eliminated
Dublin SW - FG eliminated
Longford Westmeath - FF eliminated

In Dublin Bay North, it is very likely that Power will be eliminated

BoatMad

Ren2k7 wrote: »

They were always expected to get decimated. Earlier polls had suggested Labour might have even struggled to take ANY seats so for them to enter the Dáil with 7 is actually somewhat fortunate for them. They could have easily ended up like the Greens in 2011 and PD's in '07. More's the pity.

IN fact historically labour was a 10 - isn seat party at the best of times . really all that has happened is a reversion to standard politics


The fact is this election wasn't anything " seismic " , it seas more a return to normal politics and picked up where the 2007 election left off.

Earthhorse

BoatMad wrote: »

IN fact historically labour was a 10 - isn seat party at the best of times . really all that has happened is a reversion to standard politics

Absolutely and the SDs are essentially Labour but a little to the left. It'll be interesting to see what happens in that space but the main difference now in Irish politics is the presence of SF which diffuses the centrist votes even more than usual.

bren2001

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So, another few recounts today that made no difference other than prolong the elimination

Wexford - SF eliminated
Dublin SW - FG eliminated
Longford Westmeath - FF eliminated

In Dublin Bay North, it is very likely that Power will be eliminated

Power is eliminated, she's just acting the *insert profanity here*

BoatMad

Earthhorse wrote: »

Absolutely and the SDs are essentially Labour but a little to the left. It'll be interesting to see what happens in that space but the main difference now in Irish politics is the presence of SF which diffuses the centrist votes even more than usual.

huh SF at this remove is not a centrist party. ( FF and FG are in fact centrist parties ) SF have a big issue going forward, they likely have mopped up all the left of centre votes that can easily be had.

To the left of them is the hard left , which they have failed to shift in any numbers and in fact were beaten by many of them

to the right is the rump of labour and most likely the left of centre FF voters ( though arguably that voter has seriously dwindled over the last few years )

to grow SF will have to attact both that rump labour voter and FF voter , both of whom at present are implacably against SF .

Not easy

Earthhorse

BoatMad wrote: »

huh SF at this remove is not a centrist party. ( FF and FG are in fact centrist parties ) SF have a big issue going forward, they likely have mopped up all the left of centre votes that can easily be had.

I disagree. They're puppet left, jumping on issues like IW in an opportunistic fashion. Straight out of the FF handbook. They have a nationalistic streak not present in FF or FG but they're essentially a "what way is the wind blowing" party.

BoatMad

Earthhorse wrote: »

I disagree. They're puppet left, jumping on issues like IW in an opportunistic fashion. Straight out of the FF handbook. They have a nationalistic streak not present in FF or FG but they're essentially a "what way is the wind blowing" party.

well yes , I agree with Paul Murphy on this, they are solely a party interested in building up their seats that all. to do this they will wear whatever clothes are necessary at the time.

This is why SF are not interested in being in Government, they simply dont want their policies exposed to real life testing, which would then damage their seat totals in the next election .

There are taking over as the FF populist parties of the 60s and 70s left off, and that populism bankrupted this country at the end of 70s.

A Dub in Glasgo

Moran elected in Longford Westmeath, Penrose requested recount - aargh

nice_guy80

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Moran elected in Longford Westmeath, Penrose requested recount - aargh

Willie needs to let go.

TCDStudent1

bren2001 wrote: »

Power is eliminated, she's just acting the *insert profanity here*

Feck it. I'd a nice small bet on her at long odds.

quadrifoglio verde

eigrod wrote: »

But if they don't change leader before another election (assuming there will be one), what will they have to offer the people that will be any different to what they were offering in the last 6 weeks ? He had already said he was stepping down during the term of the next Government anyway.

Well if theres another election in 6 months time they will have something to offer people
stability
Far away hills are greener, until you get up close to them and realise they're ****ed

Kenny has publicly stated that he won't contest the next election as taoiseach.
Unless he manages to get Micheal Martin to agree to be his tainiste for two years and in 2 years time it rotates, fg will be in the opposition, in which case he won't be leader anymore because he knows that an election is just around the corner
In that case, he'll walk and allow leo/simon/francis rebuild and at the same time watch the dail implode due to so much in-fighting

Martin could barely control FF, whats the chances of him control FF, Gerry Adams, Boyd Barret and Ruth Coppinger

FF refusing to go into coalition with FG is the second best thing for enda and FG

Ren2k7

BoatMad wrote: »

well yes , I agree with Paul Murphy on this, they are solely a party interested in building up their seats that all. to do this they will wear whatever clothes are necessary at the time.

This is why SF are not interested in being in Government, they simply dont want their policies exposed to real life testing, which would then damage their seat totals in the next election .

There are taking over as the FF populist parties of the 60s and 70s left off, and that populism bankrupted this country at the end of 70s.

Paul Murphy calls fellow Trots "class traitors" if they disagree with anything spouted by his Judean People's Front. You invoking that fool does nothing to help bolster your argument.

Ren2k7

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Moran elected in Longford Westmeath, Penrose requested recount - aargh

https://twitter.com/RTElongfordWMH/status/704455607475171328

Some sanity being restored in the Kenagh centre. Just get it finished!

BoatMad

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Paul Murphy calls fellow Trots "class traitors" if they disagree with anything spouted by his Judean People's Front. You invoking that fool does nothing to help bolster your argument.

There is much , if not most I disagree with on, with Paul Murphy. I do however, recognise him as an intellectual that actually does think about things , amongst a whole host of people , just ranting.

SF will not become a majority rail party by staying in the left, that means to grow they will have to become a centrist party to appeal to the middle classes , since party is everything for them , they will most likely effect that shift when its opportune for them

Ren2k7

BoatMad wrote: »

There is much , if not most I disagree with on, with Paul Murphy. I do however, recognise him as an intellectual that actually does think about things , amongst a whole host of people , just ranting.

SF will not become a majority rail party by staying in the left, that means to grow they will have to become a centrist party to appeal to the middle classes , since party is everything for them , they will most likely effect that shift when its opportune for them

I'm amazed at how you know more about SF than SFers themselves. Given how they've remained on the left of politics since the split in the early 70's I anticipate them remaining a left wing party for quite some time to come.

BoatMad

Ren2k7 wrote: »

I'm amazed at how you know more about SF than SFers themselves. Given how they've remained on the left of politics since the split in the early 70's I anticipate them remaining a left wing party for quite some time to come.

my analysis goes like this.

SF is now in a very crowded space, with several establishing hard left groupings on its left and labour and some others on its right.

To grow its seats , as it says it wants to do , SF have to either grab them from the hard left or from labour.

Now this election shows that defeating hard left candidates is not easy and SF have failed on several occasions.

Labour voters have shown remarkable dislike of SF and did not transfer to them in any numbers .

That leaves FF as a target . in FF there is a voter section that is republican and left, some of which are both ), but they are much more to the centre then SF. To appeal to them , SF will have to move to the centre.

Otherwise SF will remain in constant battle with the other left parties all scrabbling for about 30-35% of the electorate as there isn't a clear majority of left wing voters in the country ( certainly at present )

hence the move to the centre for SF

Ren2k7

BoatMad wrote: »

my analysis goes like this.

SF is now in a very crowded space, with several establishing hard left groupings on its left and labour and some others on its right.

To grow its seats , as it says it wants to do , SF have to either grab them from the hard left or from labour.

Now this election shows that defeating hard left candidates is not easy and SF have failed on several occasions.

Labour voters have shown remarkable dislike of SF and did not transfer to them in any numbers .

That leaves FF as a target . in FF there is a voter section that is republican and left, some of which are both ), but they are much more to the centre then SF. To appeal to them , SF will have to move to the centre.

Otherwise SF will remain in constant battle with the other left parties all scrabbling for about 30-35% of the electorate as there isn't a clear majority of left wing voters in the country ( certainly at present )

hence the move to the centre for SF

FF sit on the right, in this election we saw a lot of FG support migrate over to FF. SF would have to move to the right in order to poach FF voters, it's not going to happen. SF this time around took a lot of support from Labour voters who also flocked to AAA-PBP, IA and SD's as well.

BoatMad

Ren2k7 wrote: »

FF sit on the right, in this election we saw a lot of FG support migrate over to FF. SF would have to move to the right in order to poach FF voters, it's not going to happen. SF this time around took a lot of support from Labour voters who also flocked to AAA-PBP, IA and SD's as well.

well maybe you looked at a different election results then i did.

FF , and for that matter FG, is not a right wing party , both sit in the European context , in a centre ground position, this is especially true outside Dublin. It has always been convenient in recent times for certain sections of the protest parties , to try and create left/right politics and paint both FF and FG further to the right then they really are.

in this election actually no FG votes went to FF, FG s position is now quite similar to its position in 2007 . what happened was the " borrowed" 2011, FF votes in FG simply went home to FF.

as for labour , very few transferred to SF, intact many respected the voting pact and transferred to FG, actually benefiting FG ( a classic example will be to watch Longford Westmeath count ) Labour voters in fact would historically vote anything but SF.

AN analysis of Labout votes would suggest that they too had " borrowed " the harder left vote in 2011, and that that vote went home to hard left parties but nt in general to SF. For all the gains SF made, it should have made considerably more given the electoral situation .

Ren2k7

BoatMad wrote: »

well maybe you looked at a different election results then i did.

FF , and for that matter FG, is not a right wing party

I stopped reading at this point. To say that FF and FG aren't right wing parties demonstrates you know little of the actual policies of these two parties.

Sleepy

While FF and FG are right-wing in the context of Irish politics, academically speaking they are centrist, populist parties.

Renua would be the most right-wing party in the state and they'd pale in comparison to a real "hard-right" party (which fortunately, imo, we don't have in Ireland).

gandalf

Ren2k7 wrote: »

FF sit on the right, in this election we saw a lot of FG support migrate over to FF. SF would have to move to the right in order to poach FF voters, it's not going to happen. SF this time around took a lot of support from Labour voters who also flocked to AAA-PBP, IA and SD's as well.

FF & FG are both parties who I would class as being firmly in the centre. Both have a paradoxical mix of liberal and conservative values. There wasn't a swing of FG voters to FF, that was FF voters who defected from the "party of destiny" at the last election returning home.

I would also class the majority of voters in Ireland as being in the centre and unless SF start to make themselves attractive to them they will stall. This is why they are transfer toxic outside the few working class strongholds that exist. If they change to a non tainted leader and stop supporting convicted criminals like Thomas Murphy that would be a good start.

Mr.Micro

A Marriage proposal between prudence and reckless is in the offing. Reckless is playing hard to get and wants reform in the Dail as a part of a prenup, just to delay the wedding day.

Seriously, FF are just posturing now. It's party first before the stability of the nation. It does not want to be the junior party, or allow SF to be the main opposition party. You cannot eat your cake and have it. Choices,choices and all of them with a cost.

Loafing Oaf

gandalf wrote: »

I would also class the majority of voters in Ireland as being in the centre and unless SF start to make themselves attractive to them they will stall.

IMO there is a natural ceiling to the Shinners' support and certain demographic groups will never vote for them in significant numbers, even under a new leader. If there is ever to be a non-FG/FF government, the various left factions will have to coordinate their electoral strategy, with each one targeting their own particular niche.

bren2001

Dublin Bay North has finally been decided: Bruton, Haughey, Mitchell, Broughan and McGrath. Very disappointed for Aodhan, was a candidate I really liked. Intrigued to see where the Lyons transfers went.

josip

Mr.Micro wrote: »

It does not want to be the junior party, or allow SF to be the main opposition party. You cannot eat your cake and have it. Choices,choices and all of them with a cost.

It does not want to be the junior party AND allow SF to be the main opposition party.

FF will have their cake and eat it if they remain out of government.
FG are now reaping what they and FF have sown when they've decimated their respective junior partners in government.
You'd be nuts to serve a full term as a junior partner in Ireland.

whatawaster

I really don't understand the Irish electorate when it comes to junior coalition parties.

Both Labour and the Green Party have achieved far more in Irish Politics and done more good for people than Sinn Fein could even dream of.

Their options were:
1) Stay out of Government and shout from the sidelines as Fianna Fail or Fine Gael led (relatively) right-wing governments (but centrist in reality). In this case, none of the reforms Labour or the Greens wanted would be implemented.

2) Go into Government. A small % of Labour and Green Manifestos would be implemented. Less than 100% of the Fianna Fail or Fine Gael manifestos would be implemented. If Labour or the Greens didn't go into Government these policies would have been implemented anyway.

So these centre-left parties had the dual effect of softening the more extreme policies of FF/FG while also getting the chance to implement some of the policies their voters wanted.

Without Lab/Greens we would have no marriage equality.
Without similar voices in the next Dail we will have no referendum on the 8th amendment, which imo would be a travesty.

It is clear listening to SF that their sole reason for not wanting to go into Government is the potential adverse affect it might have on them in the next election. They might have a chance to do something about Health, Housing, Water or any of the other things they have been screaming about over the last 5 years. They might have a chance to stop some of what they see as the right-wing policies of FF/FG.

But they would rather act in self interest/the party interest. They will scream from the opposition benches as all the policies they stand against are implemented by FF/FG.

They are complete jokers.

Harry Palmr

Its hard to believe anyone could think FG or FF are right wing. For generations both were characterised as socially conservative and statist in terms of the economy. Its only since the mid 80s that has changed and the former still holds quite strong while the latter only changed as their hands was forced by the embracing of the free market by the western world generally - esp at the behest of EU de-regulation

Loafing Oaf

Can someone with a better head for intricacies of PR-STV than me clarify what is going on in Longford/Westmeath? Who is most likely to come out with the last two seats?

4ensic15

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Can someone with a better head for intricacies of PR-STV than me clarify what is going on in Longford/Westmeath? Who is most likely to come out with the last two seats?

Whoever gets the most votes!

Jayop

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Can someone with a better head for intricacies of PR-STV than me clarify what is going on in Longford/Westmeath? Who is most likely to come out with the last two seats?

SF will likely lose out despite not being last at present because the next tranche of transfers will come from Labour or FG and they will benefit whomever the other is.

Loafing Oaf

Jayop wrote: »

SF will likely lose out despite not being last at present because the next tranche of transfers will come from Labour or FG and they will benefit whomever the other is.

I guess Paul Hogan will have to take matters into his own hands then:

4ensic15

Quota 11,056
Moran, Kevin Boxer elected 11,120
Burke, Peter FG not-elected 7,877
Hogan, Paul SF not-elected 7,370
Penrose, Willie LAB not-elected 7,058
Bannon, James FG not-elected 7,077

What appears to be happening is that Moran has been elected with a surplus of 64 votes. When they were distributed they left Penrose ahead of Bannon by 2 or 3 votes. Since these are the lowest two candidates the lower of the two must be eliminated. Bannon, not surprisingly has sought a recount since even a minor change might bring him above Penrose. What is certain that one of them will be eliminated. If Bannon is elected it is certain that Burke his FG running mate would be elected next with a surplus. If the surplus is greater than the difference in votes between Hogan and Penrose it will be distributed. When that surplus is distributed between Hogan and Penrose
the one who finishes higher will be elected. That will likely be Penrose as FG votes are more likely to favour him than Hogan and he is geographically closer to Bannon than Hogan.
If Penrose is eliminated rather than Bannon his votes would likely transfer differently and would be more evenly distributed between the other 3 candidates. If one was elected his surplus (if greater than the difference between the 2 lower candidates) would be distributed and after that the higher one would be elected. If none was elected the lowest would be eliminated thus electing the other 2.
The likeliest outcome is that Burke will be elected since he can expect a good transfer from Penrose on the basis of coalition partner and closer geographically than Bannon who is Longford based. The issue for bannon would be whether he can get enough of a transfer from Penrose to push him ahead of Hogan. Hogan may get some votes from Penrose as he is Westmeath based and is on the left and that may swing it for him.
Most likely scenario though is that Burke will be elected and whichever of the
duo of Penrose or Bannon survive the recount will be elected. It is less likely that hogan will take a seat.