Election Results thread

Loafing Oaf

4ensic15 wrote: »

Quota 11,056
Moran, Kevin Boxer elected 11,120
Burke, Peter FG not-elected 7,877
Hogan, Paul SF not-elected 7,370
Penrose, Willie LAB not-elected 7,058
Bannon, James FG not-elected 7,077

What appears to be happening is that Moran has been elected with a surplus of 64 votes. When they were distributed they left Penrose ahead of Bannon by 2 or 3 votes. Since these are the lowest two candidates the lower of the two must be eliminated. Bannon, not surprisingly has sought a recount since even a minor change might bring him above Penrose. What is certain that one of them will be eliminated. If Bannon is elected it is certain that Burke his FG running mate would be elected next with a surplus. If the surplus is greater than the difference in votes between Hogan and Penrose it will be distributed. When that surplus is distributed between Hogan and Penrose
the one who finishes higher will be elected. That will likely be Penrose as FG votes are more likely to favour him than Hogan and he is geographically closer to Bannon than Hogan.
If Penrose is eliminated rather than Bannon his votes would likely transfer differently and would be more evenly distributed between the other 3 candidates. If one was elected his surplus (if greater than the difference between the 2 lower candidates) would be distributed and after that the higher one would be elected. If none was elected the lowest would be eliminated thus electing the other 2.
The likeliest outcome is that Burke will be elected since he can expect a good transfer from Penrose on the basis of coalition partner and closer geographically than Bannon who is Longford based. The issue for bannon would be whether he can get enough of a transfer from Penrose to push him ahead of Hogan. Hogan may get some votes from Penrose as he is Westmeath based and is on the left and that may swing it for him.
Most likely scenario though is that Burke will be elected and whichever of the
duo of Penrose or Bannon survive the recount will be elected. It is less likely that hogan will take a seat.

Thanks for that. Sounds like things could go on for a while yet then...

bren2001

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Thanks for that. Sounds like things could go on for a while yet then...

Briscoe -v- Byrne 10 days of recounts and a 5 vote win. Is that the longest in history? There could be more than one recount to this.

A Dub in Glasgo

Labour & FG get the final seats in Longford Westmeath

Centaur

"The people have spoken,the bastards."


(Dick Tuck's concession speech following his loss in the 1966 California State Senate election.)

BoatMad

we dont need a change of government we need a change of electorate


anyway, we'll all be back at the polls in 2016, FF always put party before the state , they have done since their foundation