Election Results thread

BoatMad

Also remember exit polls results are only first preferences. This election will be about transfers.

charlie14

quadrifoglio verde wrote: »

Because it's not stable.
And without Kenny at the helm, fg are much more attractive

Do you think the electorate will have a welcome for any FG leader that has rejected a deal coming back to them in a few week will get a better reception.

What will they have to offer ?

Vote for a majority FG Government ?

They would be in danger of not just slaughtered politicaly,but murdered on the doorsteps.

willlennon

What price Coveney for the top job? the Irish voter won't change their minds this side of 'Christmas' Do a deal there,, Micháel..

Good job their Gerry.. give Mary Lou a go next year..

charlie14

BoatMad wrote: »

Also remember exit polls results are only first preferences. This election will be about transfers.

On a FG/Lab support of 34% transfers will not bring you anywhere near over 50% of seats.

gandalf

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you think the electorate will have a welcome for any FG leader that has rejected a deal coming back to them in a few week will get a better reception.

What will they have to offer ?

Vote for a majority FG Government ?

They would be in danger of not just slaughtered politicaly,but murdered on the doorsteps.

FG are down to their core support at the moment. I think there would be a bigger danger of eroding the core support and shipping the more conservative supporters to Renua if they were to go into a unstable Government like that with FF. When the cards came crashing down they would be punished.

willlennon

What price Coveney for the top job? the Irish voter won't change their minds this side of 'Christmas' Do a deal there,, Micháel..

Good job there,, Gerry... give Mary Lou a go next year..

BoatMad

charlie14 wrote: »

On a FG/Lab support of 34% transfers will not bring you anywhere near over 50% of seats.

I always thought that FG and lab were never going to get a simple majority. But it's a numbers game. Get closer to a combined majority and options open up,

SF are traditionally transfer toxic , lab will do better then first preferences suggest and there will be FG lab transfers and even some ff lab transfers. Independents tend not to transfer well.

It will all boil down to transfers on this election because the first preference vote has become more polarised then people thought.

gandalf

willlennon wrote: »

What price Coveney for the top job? the Irish voter won't change their minds this side of 'Christmas' Do a deal there,, Micháel..

Good job their Gerry.. give Mary Lou a go next year..

If the exit poll figures come to fruition then Enda is going to be pushed if he doesn't stand down.

I don't see how you can say that this is a good poll for GA or SF. They should be hitting 18-20% but Gerry Adams blood tax has cost them around 4-5% of support. It will be interesting to see if he tries to carry on and if so the effect that will have on Mary Lou especially.

BoatMad

willlennon wrote: »

What price Coveney for the top job? the Irish voter won't change their minds this side of 'Christmas' Do a deal there,, Micháel..

Good job there,, Gerry... give Mary Lou a go next year..

Given the circumstances SF are not doing as well as people expected. This was probably the election they should have mopped up most of the left wing vote. Doesn't seem to be happening. Ff resurgence is bad for SF too

Army council will never allow Mary Lou anywhere near the leader ship, she doesn't have " in the trenches " experience. Gerry will go, but it not be Mary Lou

charlie14

Richard Hillman wrote: »

FG/Lab won't have near a majority but I am thinking that this exit-poll results are too surprisingly low for FG.

The UK general election had 2 opinion polls that were massively out between each other. The higher on the conservatives was the most accurate. I am not surprised with the silent FF vote. I think we were all expecting them to improve on the polls

I`m not really that surprised by the FG vote. They had been slipping since the start of the campaign. Once that starts for a government party it`generally keeps going.

This poll being an exit poll is a bit different from others with a 1.2% margin of error, plus it was carried out by MRBI who were pretty much spot on 2011 and 2007.

K-9

Padster90s wrote: »

On those results FF/SF coalition would be stronger than FG/Lab. So we're looking at either FG/FF or FF/SF or another election in the summer. Interesting times ahead...

Vote wise yes but seats wise I doubt there'll be much in it. FG/Labour in or around 60 seats basing it on similar percentages previously and how there is basically a transfer pact between them.

At 23% for FF you are looking at mid to high 30's, Fg got 31 seats from 21% of the vote in 02.SF in or around 20 seats so very possibly less seats in total despite more votes.

Unless this election is different and FF and SF are more transfer friendly they'll be 15-20 seats short of Government. That might change if there's a strong anybody but FG/Labour tone in the transfers from Independents, AAA, SD's and the IA and SF and FF start picking up the final seats in constituencies.

I can see Enda stepping aside "in the national interest" allowing a FF/FG coalition. Enda lost this election and nobody else, a 10% drop in votes and 20 seats is a disaster.

charlie14

K-9 wrote: »

Vote wise yes but seats wise I doubt there'll be much in it. FG/Labour in or around 60 seats basing it on similar percentages previously and how there is basically a transfer pact between them.

At 23% for FF you are looking at mid to high 30's, Fg got 31 seats from 21% of the vote in 02.SF in or around 20 seats so very possibly less seats in total despite more votes.

Unless this election is different and FF and SF are more transfer friendly they'll be 15-20 seats short of Government. That might change if there's a strong anybody but FG/Labour tone in the transfers from Independents, AAA, SD's and the IA and SF and FF start picking up the final seats in constituencies.

I can see Enda stepping aside "in the national interest" allowing a FF/FG coalition. Enda lost this election and nobody else, a 10% drop in votes and 20 seats is a disaster.

I wouldn`t greatly disagree with your figures, but I would not be too sure of FF going into coalition.

Remember Martin would have to call a special Ard Fheis for that which could be anywhere between dodgy and disastorus for him.

He can make the decision to support a minority FG government on his own.

That way he has as I`ve said before, a strong grip on FGs short and curlies, while still in opposition keeping a weather eye on SF.

A win win for him imo.

charlie14

gandalf wrote: »

FG are down to their core support at the moment. I think there would be a bigger danger of eroding the core support and shipping the more conservative supporters to Renua if they were to go into a unstable Government like that with FF. When the cards came crashing down they would be punished.

Renua with 2.6% are an irrelevance, and will be lucky to keep the three they have, and of all the possibilities the one with the best chance of stability imo is an FG minority supported by FF.

If FF offer that and FG reject it and go back to the country, they would be slaughtered by the electorate.

BoatMad

Yes I would suggest it will be a FF supported minority gov of FG and labour.

duffman13

charlie14 wrote: »

Renua with 2.6% are an irrelevance, and will be lucky to keep the three they have, and of all the possibilities the one with the best chance of stability imo is an FG minority supported by FF.

If FF offer that and FG reject it and go back to the country, they would be slaughtered by the electorate.

Really? I dont think FF will offer it anyway but i dont think anyone would be slaughtered by the electorate if this end out being a hung Dail. It would be bads news for independents IMO

NIMAN

If there is to be another election before the year is out, what about the chances of Gerry Adams throwing in the towel as leader before it?

I think it would give SF a big boost in support.

charlie14

duffman13 wrote: »

Really? I dont think FF will offer it anyway but i dont think anyone would be slaughtered by the electorate if this end out being a hung Dail. It would be bads news for independents IMO

Seriously ????

FG turn down an offer like that and go back to a very annoyed electorate to tell them what ?

Give us an extra 30 seats and we won`t be back again in a few weeks ?

There would be blood on the streets.

They would need a hell of a larger army than the one that was going to mind the ATMs to protect them

charlie14

BoatMad wrote: »

Yes I would suggest it will be a FF supported minority gov of FG and labour.

FF will have stipulations attached to that I imagine, and will want a major concession to sell to their own supporters from the outset.

If I was a betting man, my money would be on that being Irish Water binned.

colossus-x

I was presented with a card that had 16 candidates on it. I voted FG 1 , 2 and 3. I left the rest as I'd never heard of them . A lot of independents. There were no Labour candidates in my locale. Pity.

charlie14

colossus-x wrote: »

I was presented with a card that had 16 candidates on it. I voted FG 1 , 2 and 3. I left the rest as I'd never heard of them . A lot of independents. There were no Labour candidates in my locale. Pity.

They obviously thought it would be a waste of money in that he/she hadn`t a hope

Stacksofwacks

colossus-x wrote: »

I was presented with a card that had 16 candidates on it. I voted FG 1 , 2 and 3. I left the rest as I'd never heard of them . A lot of independents. There were no Labour candidates in my locale. Pity.

good for you

aliveandkicking

My prediction is a deal will be done between FF and FG to allow Enda Kenny remain as Taoiseach of a minority FG government to see through St Patrick's Day and 1916 events. Following that Kenny will resign as leader of FG, Burton of course will be well gone and even Adams could go after the 1916 commemorations. The stage will be set for another election in early Summer with 3 of the 4 largest parties having new leaders by then while FF will fight on a Martin for Taoiseach ticket.

charlie14

aliveandkicking wrote: »

My prediction is a deal will be done between FF and FG to allow Enda Kenny remain as Taoiseach of a minority FG government to see through St Patrick's Day and 1916 events. Following that Kenny will resign as leader of FG, Burton of course will be well gone and even Adams could go after the 1916 commemorations. The stage will be set for another election in early Summer with 3 of the 4 largest parties having new leaders by then while FF will fight on a Martin for Taoiseach ticket.

Anything is possible at this stage, but that scenario would mean however is leader of FG would have to pull the plug and i wouldnot fancy his or her chances going back to the electorate and trying to explain why.

Reckon it would be looked on as a iantrum and throwing toys out of the pram.

I mean, what would FGs answer be to the question:

"Will you be back again in another few weeks if we don`t vote the way you want and give you an overall majority"

Grab All Association

I heard from someone in Borrisoleigh that Lowry canvassers called to his door last week and were asking people to give Noel ISIS Coonan second preference.

FA Hayek

Will be interesting if the Irish Times exit poll reflects that of the RTE one in the morning.
Lets take it that its accurate.

Bad for FG. They would have been crusing at the low-mid 30's
Good for FF. But not enough to be the largest party
Terrible for Labour.
Also, bad for Sinn Fein. If they cannot make that much head way in the past 5 years then whats the point?
Great for Indo's and smaller parties.
Greens would be delighted at those figures but its way too high i think. Hence why I don't think this poll will be as accurate as the final outcome.

Sir Oxman

RTE EXIT & SEAT GUESSTIMATES FROM A PUNDIT ON RADIO 1:
FG 24.8 45
FF 21.1 37
SF 16.0 27
LAB 7.1 9
SD 3.7 7
AAA+ 4.7 6
GRN 3.6 4
IA 3.0 4
REN 2.4 3
IND 11.0 13
OTH 2.6 2

marno21

Early tallies expect Healy Raes to take 2 seats in Kerry. Healy Raes on 31.5%, FG who have 2 seats at present on 18%

BoJack Horseman

marno21 wrote: »

Early tallies expect Healy Raes to take 2 seats in Kerry. Healy Raes on 31.5%

I think the Book of Revelations mentions this.

Bodes poorly for mankind.

gandalf

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I think the Book of Revelations mentions this.

Bodes poorly for mankind.

Expect a certain plant hire business to do well in Kerry for the near future so :rolleyes:

K-9

I think they might be over estimating seats for the smaller parties there, SD and Greens anyway. Where would SD get 7?

It keeps getting worse for Enda and Joan, the whingers comment must have knocked 5 or 6% of the vote.

gandalf

Early Tallies in Dublin West are saying Burton is on 18%, she may hang on yet. Feck it this is going to be an interesting day!

BoJack Horseman

gandalf wrote: »

Early Tallies in Dublin West are saying Burton is on 18%, she may hang on yet. Feck it this is going to be an interesting day!

That is bad news for Labour.

I had her nailed on to lose her seat.
And tbh, she is a severe handicap on the party looking at the big picture.
Her, hanging around like a cadaver going bad will not help their recovery.

gandalf

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That is bad news for Labour.

I had her nailed on to lose her seat.
And tbh, she is a severe handicap on the party looking at the big picture.
Her, hanging around like a cadaver going bad will not help their recovery.

Surely a leader that will have lost around 20 seats will have to go though. I expect Howlin or AK47 (if he makes it!) to try and go for the leadership now.

mikeydublin

Does anyone know if RDS is open to the public?

BoJack Horseman

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

That is bad news for Labour.

I had her nailed on to lose her seat.
And tbh, she is a severe handicap on the party looking at the big picture.
Her, hanging around like a cadaver going bad will not help their recovery.

I expect her to let someone younger take the reins in any case.

Do hope she keeps her seat tbh.

BoJack Horseman

gandalf wrote: »

Surely a leader that will have lost around 20 seats will have to go though. I expect Howlin or AK47 (if he makes it!) to try and go for the leadership now.

Well, she won her position at such a canter against Alex White, I'm assuming she still carries a lot of favour among the die-hards.

If she clings on, she will need to be challenged.

BoJack Horseman

Wicklow man Stephen Kearon (@skearon) has a live spreadsheet up on Google showing tally updates from the count in Greystones.

Check it out here.

Quite surprising.
Labour is being crushed, remarkable for a county that always had a strong Labour following.

Donnelly is monstering it so far.

charlie14

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Well, she won her position at such a canter against Alex White, I'm assuming she still carries a lot of favour among the die-hards.

If she clings on, she will need to be challenged.

There may not be many die-hards left to support her.

As to challenging her if she survives, will toxicity in relation to those involved in the FG/Lab government be a factor for anyone who does go for it ?

Loafing Oaf

K-9 wrote: »

I think they might be over estimating seats for the smaller parties there, SD and Greens anyway. Where would SD get 7?

Also underestimating FF, most expect them to be over 40, even possibly neck and neck with FG. Could this smooth the passage of the grand coalition, rotating taoiseach etc.?

Fr Tod Umptious

mikeydublin wrote: »

Does anyone know if RDS is open to the public?

I think all count centres are open to the public.

K-9

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Also underestimating FF, most expect them to be over 40, even possibly neck and neck with FG. Could this smooth the passage of the grand coalition, rotating taoiseach etc.?

RTE made that point, it makes FF more equal partners.

I can't see those seat numbers for SD and the Greens, guy on RTE agreed. FF are picking up 20% and SF 10 in the RTE second preference poll, not far off FG and Labour so that could make FF & SF an outside possibility with SD and say the Independent Alliance.

BoJack Horseman

At the RTE exit poll, people were asked what government they wanted



Right after the people voted for something else!

gandalf

Looks like the new blow in voters to DSW will elect a FF and FG TD at the expense of the Lab and Ind Lab outgoing TD's.

So its 1 SF, 1 AAA, 1 FF, 1 FG and 1 AN Other (too hard to call yet!)

washman3

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I am going to call it FG/LAB will win it by a seat or two to get a Government together. There will be no booting people out over the next 5 years I expect.

Hope you're not working for a bookie.;)
The swaggering arrogance of FG which also infested Lab is now coming home to roost.
Good riddance to the 'friends of the elite'

Superhorse

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I think all count centres are open to the public.

They are most certainly not and rightfully so for obvious reasons.

VincePP

It could be adios to Mick Wallace.

And with alan shatter polling well, it will be a double win for him

Mr.Micro

VincePP wrote: »

It could be adios to Mick Wallace.

And with alan shatter polling well, it will be a double win for him

Wallace is gone hopefully. I heard on the radio the other day that he does not even hold a surgery for his constituents. A complete self server IMO. Having said that, he will probably scrape in, to add to the mess the Dail will be in.

Fr Tod Umptious

Superhorse wrote: »

They are most certainly not and rightfully so for obvious reasons.

Oh I thought they were.
Do you need to be on a candidates list or something ?

charlie14

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Wallace is gone hopefully. I heard on the radio the other day that he does not even hold a surgery for his constituents. A complete self server IMO. Having said that, he will probably scrape in, to add to the mess the Dail will be in.

Your post reminds me of the American senator who when asked for his thoughts after losing his seat said "The electorate has exercised their democratic right..... the b***ards"

charlie14

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Oh I thought they were.
Do you need to be on a candidates list or something ?

If their is a public gallery maybe, but otherwise you would need a pass from one of the candidates far as I know.