Election Results thread

Zaph

K-9 wrote: »

Burton did well in fairness. SF got crowded out.

Some talk locally that Coppinger's canvassers were telling people that the SF candidate was as good as in (which he did look like being from the beginning to be fair) and that she needed votes to battle it out with Burton for the last seat. This could have harmed the SF vote a bit.

Centaur

Stheno wrote: »

Only 18 votes between her and the SF candidate if I read it right!

That means a recount then.

Scrap that. It's 1000 votes.

Zaph

Stheno wrote: »

Only 18 votes between her and the SF candidate if I read it right!

No, just shy of a thousand votes in the end.

For Forks Sake

Zaph wrote: »

No, just shy of a thousand votes in the end.

Correct. http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/dublin-west/

daviecronin

Was Mick Wallace absolutely pissed in that interview?

devnull

From looking at it now it's 50/50 between FF and FG for largest party.

The longer the night goes on the worse it looks for FF.

What are the odds on a rainbow left government of SF + FF + another left wing party I wonder?

Somewhat put it as the economic terrorists with the......

Centaur

Looking at the exit poll on RTE, apparently the two biggest issues that influenced votes were Health Services and the Economy. Sorry but I don't buy that. The Economy is doing well and even during the boom the Health Services were a disaster. I'd say the margin for error on that poll is about 100%.

oscarBravo

devnull wrote: »

What are the odds on a rainbow left government of SF + FF + another left wing party I wonder?

SF seem to be firmly ruling out coalition with either FG or FF.

Inquitus

oscarBravo wrote: »

SF seem to be firmly ruling out coalition with either FG or FF.

I think they are right to rule it out, any FF + SF + whoever government is going to be an unstable disaster that will harm SF's future prospects. Main opposition to FF/FG is the best play.

devnull

Centaur wrote: »

Looking at the exit poll on RTE, apparently the two biggest issues that influenced votes were Health Services and the Economy. Sorry but I don't buy that. The Economy is doing well and even during the boom the Health Services were a disaster. I'd say the margin for error on that poll is about 100%.

TBH I think FG would take the exit poll right now, as bad as the exit poll is for FG compared to the opinion polls, I think that the exit poll is clearly over-estimating FG.

The health service has been **** ever since I was back in Ireland in 2004. It was badly run under every government I've been back under. FF had the wealth of a generation, FG had little money so if people really are voting for FF because of health, they must have memory of a goldfish and as economically literate as someone who got every maths question wrong on their leaving cert.

oscarBravo wrote: »

SF seem to be firmly ruling out coalition with either FG or FF.

Well if their leader doesn't know how their policies will work, what hope to the rest of the party have? It's very easy for SF to put out their populist propaganda about how they will remove all the taxes and increase all of the spending but when they are asked how they will do this they go very quiet and have no idea.

Far easier to go and spout all that populist stuff sitting on the sidelines which has no chance in reality in working. SF don't want to go into coalition because their policies and moaning and cribbing on the sidelines won't work in reality and they'd never be able to implement it in reality because it makes no sense, so instead they'll just blame everyone else and stick with their populist crap.

Also SF would quite like FF+FG to go into power since when it goes belly up which it obviously will, SF will be in prime position to take advantage of that.

Suryavarman

Centaur wrote: »

Looking at the exit poll on RTE, apparently the two biggest issues that influenced votes were Health Services and the Economy. Sorry but I don't buy that. The Economy is doing well and even during the boom the Health Services were a disaster. I'd say the margin for error on that poll is about 100%.

The exit poll just shows what the voters think. It doesn't mean the voter is right.

Centaur

Suryavarman wrote: »

The exit poll just shows what the voters think. It doesn't mean the voter is right.

It doesn't necessarily show what they think. It shows what they say.

Edward Hopper

Hospitals have only had trolleys back on corridors on wards the last two years. So the health service to those who use it and work in it has got worse. There is a myriad of reasons, many the government could probably not avoid but it's a fact the service has deteriorated since this government gained power.

charlie14

Centaur wrote: »

Looking at the exit poll on RTE, apparently the two biggest issues that influenced votes were Health Services and the Economy. Sorry but I don't buy that. The Economy is doing well and even during the boom the Health Services were a disaster. I'd say the margin for error on that poll is about 100%.

The exit polls were close enough to what we are seeing.

The issues those on the RTE exit poll listed as influencing how they voted were :

1. Health
2. The economy
3. Good goverance
4. Water charges
5. Housing

As 2. and 3. were the messages FG/Lab were pushing so reasonable to believe those that stated those as their reasons were FG/Lab supporters.

From that it is also reasonable to believe that 1. 4. and 5. were what influenced the majority and cost FG/Lab the election.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Jayop

Can't believe that Joan got back in. Absolutely disgusted. Can't believe that have to listen to that for another few years.

Centaur

Inquitus wrote: »

I think they are right to rule it out, any FF + SF + whoever government is going to be an unstable disaster that will harm SF's future prospects. Main opposition to FF/FG is the best play.

So they are more interested in building their brand than trying to make a difference.

At what stage are they planning to get rid of water charges?

K-9

The Green TD Catherine Martin is some story, came from nowhere 5 years ago, won a council seat and beat Shatter and White.

charlie14

Suryavarman wrote: »

The exit poll just shows what the voters think. It doesn't mean the voter is right.

That`s the bitch for losers in a democracy.

The voter is always right

charlie14

Jayop wrote: »

Can't believe that Joan got back in. Absolutely disgusted. Can't believe that have to listen to that for another few years.

You can relax on that score.

She wont survive as leader of whatever Labour has left.

After that there wont be much interest in her from the media.

Jayop

How come every single FGer isn't getting grilled about enda ballsing up like the SF candidates are. Media bias even after the fecking election.

devnull

Edward Hopper wrote: »

Hospitals have only had trolleys back on corridors on wards the last two years. So the health service to those who use it and work in it has got worse. There is a myriad of reasons, many the government could probably not avoid but it's a fact the service has deteriorated since this government gained power.

As someone who had a family member on a trolley several years ago under FF government at the old Mater which took a day and a half to diagnose a very serious condition but the department was overflooded with people sitting on chairs everywhere to the fact that it seriously effected his outcome, I really take issue at that.

Sorry if your view is different but I have been into an A+E with older family members enough time during the FF years to tell you that what you say is wrong and I find it offensive because it is simply not true. The health service has been shocking for many years and an absolute disgrace, but there are many reasons behind that, most of which go back to the current Fianna Fail leaders time

The fact is that for a government that was in power for 3 terms, the FF government solved VERY LITTLE of the countries problems during those years despite the fact that so much money was thrown in. During the FF years health was a black hole, with huge amounts of funds being thrown into it with no clear direction of where it will go.

Like most things with FF it was "let's just throw money at it and it'll be grand" which was the whole reason the economy got in the state it was in. There was no acountability for spending.

Jayop

K-9 wrote: »

The Green TD Catherine Martin is some story, came from nowhere 5 years ago, won a council seat and beat Shatter and White.

I'll say this as nicely as possible, but did she have a stroke or something? Half of her mouth doesn't move when she talks.

K-9

charlie14 wrote: »

The exit polls were close enough to what we are seeing.

The issues those on the RTE exit poll listed as influencing how they voted were :

1. Health
2. The economy
3. Good goverance
4. Water charges
5. Housing

As 2. and 3. were the messages FG/Lab were pushing so reasonable to believe those that stated those as their reasons were FG/Lab supporters.

From that it is also reasonable to believe that 1. 4. and 5. were what influenced the majority and cost FG/Lab the election.

Public Services were way ahead of tax and the economy as issues, FF and the SD's got that right, FG and Renua got it majorly wrong. The electorate refused to be bribed.

Labour will have to join a technical group as Clare Daly said!

K-9

Jayop wrote: »

I'll say this as nicely as possible, but did she have a stroke or something? Half of her mouth doesn't move when she talks.

Ah now, don't ruin a nice story.

No Lucinda interviews yet?

Centaur

K-9 wrote: »

The Green TD Catherine Martin is some story, came from nowhere 5 years ago, won a council seat and beat Shatter and White.

Congratulations indeed to Catherine but I don't think you can really ascribe that to a personal vote. As I mentioned before this is the constituency that elected the first Green TD to Dail Eireann. There is a Green vote there no matter who runs.

Jayop

K-9 wrote: »

Ah now, don't ruin a nice story.

No Lucinda interviews yet?

Ah no I'm delighted for her. We need greens in the Dail. Hopefully they won't throw themselves under the bus again in future Dail if they get more seats.

Edward Hopper

devnull wrote: »

As someone who had a family member on a trolley several years ago under FF government at the old Mater which took a day and a half to diagnose a very serious condition but the department was overflooded with people sitting on chairs everywhere to the fact that it seriously effected his outcome, I really take issue at that.

Sorry if your view is different but I have been into an A+E with older family members enough time during the FF years to tell you that what you say is wrong and I find it offensive.

I'm talking about people sleeping on corridors on wards for 2 3 4 days. Not in the emergency department. Categorically this did not happen in my regional hospital again until 2 years ago. (It happened regularly 13 or 14 years ago, no idea who was in power then, I didn't live here then. but for 10 plus years it didn't happen). I don't vote FF or FG by the way and may well have been the same regardless who was in power, doesn't change the fact, things have got worse.

devnull

Two more wards to have votes in

FG 0.9% ahead of FF

Exit poll which many said at the start under-estimated the gap between FG and FF actually over-estimated it.

eigrod

Labour can rebuild over the next 5 years. They've been on the ropes before and rebounded. There will be a huge number of Independent and small party seats that they could target once they regroup. They will need to pick the right leader for it though, and that's probably their biggest challenge from what's going to be a very small pool to pick from. They will need someone who will appeal to the younger voter.

Inquitus

eigrod wrote: »

Labour can rebuild over the next 5 years. They've been on the ropes before and rebounded. There will be a huge number of Independent and small party seats that they could target once they regroup. They will need to pick the right leader for it though, and that's probably their biggest challenge from what's going to be a very small pool to pick from. They will need someone who will appeal to the younger voter.

Labour are competing with AAA/PBP/SF these days, its quite a crowded space.

devnull

Can see Maureen O'Sullivan getting the last seat in Dublin Central.

She's only 8 behind Gary Gannon and Christy Burke is clearly going to transfer to her.

Harry Palmr

The left needs to coalesces into a single party but that'll never happen will it?

K-9

Inquitus wrote: »

Labour are competing with AAA/PBP/SF these days, its quite a crowded space.

Not anymore. Before they just went left in opposition but SF will drown them out with numbers, AAA with rhetoric and SD on policy.

The Randy Riverbeast

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The left needs to coalesces into a single party but that'll never happen will it?

Hope they do better with the name than AAA-PBP.

devnull

FF to become biggest party by seats I reckon now.

Kenny will be dead meat if that happens.

K-9

Labour will be seen as the sell out party.

Willie Penrose interviewed on radio, nice guy who has his ups and downs over the years.

Manach

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The left needs to coalesces into a single party but that'll never happen will it?

The economic left might be prone to a People's Front of Judea syndrome, thus not too likely.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

dublinman1990

Another result from Meath West. Damien English (FG) has been elected from there on the 6th count.

devnull

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

See AAA-PBP.

Francie Barrett

It seems clear to me that the electorate have rejected what you would perceive as right-wing government. The meltdown of Fine Gael and the complete rejection of Renua suggest that the next government needs to make a swing towards the left. Can Fine Gael lead that? I don't think so. Seems to me that the next government should be a FF/SF coalition with support if needed from independents.

Stheno

Francie Barrett wrote: »

It seems clear to me that the electorate have rejected what you would perceive as right-wing government. The meltdown of Fine Gael and the complete rejection of Renua suggest that the next government needs to make a swing towards the left. Can Fine Gael lead that? I don't think so. Seems to me that the next government should be a FF/SF coalition with support if needed from independents.

How do you marry that with the fact that Labour have only one td elected so far?

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

It seems clear to me that the electorate have rejected what you would perceive as right-wing government. The meltdown of Fine Gael and the complete rejection of Renua suggest that the next government needs to make a swing towards the left. Can Fine Gael lead that? I don't think so. Seems to me that the next government should be a FF/SF coalition with support if needed from independents.

Have you forgotten about the party that currently have the most seats!? :eek:

jimgoose

Stheno wrote: »

How do you marry that with the fact that Labour have only one td elected so far?

Labour don't have any actual politics. Just a strange, Orwellian power-for-power's-sake sort of ethos.

K-9

Kerry in at last.

Francie Barrett

Stheno wrote: »

How do you marry that with the fact that Labour have only one td elected so far?

As a whole, it's clear that the right wing vote is down and the left wing vote is up. It stands to reason that the next government will be more towards the left this time around.

Christy42

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The left needs to coalesces into a single party but that'll never happen will it?

There are large issues with the left combining as the parties are pretty different. For instance I would have had SD first had they run in my constituency but didn't bother put a number by the SF candidate.
I would consider AAA quite extreme, and Sinn Fein have a lot of Republican baggage that I disagree very heavily with. Obviously others will disagree but then they probably have issues with SD. This is the nature of people having different opinions.

K-9

Deenihan behind FF and his running mate.

Healy Rae's 30,000 first preferences!

Spring looks gone

Harry Palmr

K-9 wrote: »

Deenihan behind FF and his running mate.

Healy Rae's 30,000 first preferences!

Spring looks gone

The pair of them surely?