Election Results thread

Francie Barrett

K-9 wrote: »

Deenihan behind FF and his running mate.

Healy Rae's 30,000 first preferences!

Spring looks gone

Not just one Healy Rae - but two are going to be elected in!

Centaur

charlie14 wrote: »

The exit polls were close enough to what we are seeing.

The issues those on the RTE exit poll listed as influencing how they voted were :

1. Health
2. The economy
3. Good goverance
4. Water charges
5. Housing

As 2. and 3. were the messages FG/Lab were pushing so reasonable to believe those that stated those as their reasons were FG/Lab supporters.

From that it is also reasonable to believe that 1. 4. and 5. were what influenced the majority and cost FG/Lab the election.

Anybody who said 1 was just being pious. It didn't matter when FF were running for office during the boom so I don't see why it should matter now.
It was 4 and 5. Mainly 4.

K-9

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The pair of them surely?

First 2 elected, 9,000 over the quota must be up there in electoral history.

FF and FG have some good vote management stories but that's amazing.

ThunbergsAreGo

Centaur wrote: »

Anybody who said 1 was just being pious. It didn't matter when FF were running for office during the boom so I don't see why it should matter now.
It was 4 and 5. Mainly 4.

No one can sort out health, it's a black hole

Stheno

Francie Barrett wrote: »

As a whole, it's clear that the right wing vote is down and the left wing vote is up. It stands to reason that the next government will be more towards the left this time around.

FF and FG so far have almost 50% of the vote so seems to be a clear chasm

Eamon Ryan seems to be staging a comeback.

Lucinda Creighton is gone

K-9

K-9 wrote: »

First 2 elected, 9,000 over the quota must be up there in electoral history.

FF and FG have some good vote management stories but that's amazing.

They're almost mafia/dictatorship style numbers.

josip

The Healy Rae family has/will have more seats than Renua

Stheno

Is it just me getting annoyed with the amount of comments from candidates in count centres claiming no knowledge of the national picture as they have "been in the count centre all evening"?

FFS have they not heard of mobile broadband?

Two of them in Limerick now claiming they've been in a vacuum all day. Would they ever go off and feck with themselves.

K-9

Healy Rae's were up against the old O'Donoghue FF machine, Ferris SF, Deenihan FG and the Spring dynasty. Blayney in Donegal used to be called the FF mafia but that's something else.

Suryavarman

charlie14 wrote: »

That`s the bitch for losers in a democracy.

The voter is always right

The Irish electorate has elected Fianna Fail many times and they will be the second largest party by some margin. The voters are clearly not right a whole lot in Ireland at least.

Stheno

Stheno wrote: »

Is it just me getting annoyed with the amount of comments from candidates in count centres claiming no knowledge of the national picture as they have "been in the count centre all evening"?

FFS have they not heard of mobile broadband?

Two of them in Limerick now claiming they've been in a vacuum all day. Would they ever go off and feck with themselves.

Replying to myself but the two clowns concerned then went on to reference national results:cool:

Fr Tod Umptious

Why the hatred for Creighton ?

She's hardly the only anti abortion politician in the land.

I give her credit for sticking to her policies, even though I don't necessarily agree with her, and taking the tough route and going it alone.

jos28

josip wrote: »

The Healy Rae family has/will have more seats than Renua

They can be branded as Raenua !

Stheno

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why the hatred for Creighton ?

She's hardly the only anti abortion politician in the land.

I give her credit for sticking to her policies, even though I don't necessarily agree with her, and taking the tough route and going it alone.

I thought she was extremely regressive in the leader debates. Couldn't find one single thing she spoke about that I agreed with.

I certainly don't hate her, but I'd not like to see her in power.

josip

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why the hatred for Creighton ?

I don't hate her, but her whiny voice and wrinkled forehead irritates me and comes across as moany.
For some reason I don't find Joan Burton as moany, yes her voice can be annoying, but she usually seems positive to me.
Each to their own, just my instinctive reaction.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

devnull

Lucinda Creighton and her party are what you call a true right-wing party.

Just thought I'd point out what one is to the radical left, as they seem to have trouble recognising what one is when they call FG one.

Hopefully they will now fold and die off and she'll vanish from the political scene with her outdated ideology and her awful tax policies.

marno21

josip wrote: »

The Healy Rae family has/will have more seats than Renua

And Labour.

Fr Tod Umptious

Anyone know what the projected seats for FG and FF are ?

Earlier in the day I was hearing low 50s at best for FG, mid 40s for FF

NIMAN

Stheno wrote: »

Is it just me getting annoyed with the amount of comments from candidates in count centres claiming no knowledge of the national picture as they have "been in the count centre all evening"?

FFS have they not heard of mobile broadband?

Two of them in Limerick now claiming they've been in a vacuum all day. Would they ever go off and feck with themselves.

Means you don't have to answer difficult questions from Dobbo.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

devnull

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Anyone know what the projected seats for FG and FF are ?

Earlier in the day I was hearing low 50s at best for FG, mid 40s for FF

I reckon there is only gonna be 1 or 2 in it either way between those two.

K-9

A pro business party in one of the most pro business countries in the world.

All the anti slight changes to Abortion law FG defectors, failed in this election.

If Renua were socially liberal they'd have matched the Social Democrats no bother. Instead they'll make a slight foot note in history. Clan na Poblachta and the Farmers Party will be more significant in 50 years time.

K-9

devnull wrote: »

I reckon there is only gonna be 1 or 2 in it either way between those two.

FG 4 or 5 ahead because they just have a better electoral strategy. FG planned for winning 2 seats in constituencies, FF didn't.

Fr Tod Umptious

K-9 wrote: »

FG 4 or 5 ahead because they just have a better electoral strategy. FG planned for winning 2 seats in constituencies, FF didn't.

Yea there was a gut on TV just now, don't know who he is, but he said FG were picking up 2 seats in places where earlein the day they were only expected to get one, and that other partiyare picking up none where they were expected to get one or more.

devnull

Jan O'Sullivan getting in there ahead of O'Donnell didn't look likely but it has happened

Centaur

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Why the hatred for Creighton ?

She's hardly the only anti abortion politician in the land.

I give her credit for sticking to her policies, even though I don't necessarily agree with her, and taking the tough route and going it alone.

I gave her a bit of stick when she started out but any time I heard her being interviewed when she was a junior minister I thought she came across very well.
Although I didn't agree with her and wouldn't be a supporter of Renua, I admired her for sticking to her principles.

Loafing Oaf

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Anyone know what the projected seats for FG and FF are ?

Earlier in the day I was hearing low 50s at best for FG, mid 40s for FF

Someone (Odran Flynn?) predicted round 53 for FG, 44 for FF a few minutes ago...

Jayop

I'm very pro choice but I've huge respect for Lucinda for at least having the scruples to stick by her guns and do what she felt right. Totally have no time for her right wing politics but like her backbone and courage.

cup of tea

It's all part of a masterplan Over the next few years the Healy Raes plan to re locate as many of their children, 1st and 2nd cousins, aunts and uncles across the country into the various constituencies with exception to Dublin.

They then hope to form a majority Healy Rae government.

Kerry will be accessible to every county by Motorway and become the new capital.

josip

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I think it's just the women for that combination of features. Lucinda's forehead only wrinkles because she does that thing or raising her eyebrows when she's being interviewed. Why I have no idea.
Wallace, his hair. Healy Raes the caps. Eamon O Cuiv, just for looking like Dev. Paul Murphy could his head be any more round? Look at Donnelly in Wicklow, he manages to get a bit of an egg shape on his head and that's well regarded.
I'm fierce judgemental and shallow.
Am I supposed to judge them on their policies and Dail committee track record?
In that case, why do photoshopped photos dominate their posters?

Jayop

On the matter of not criticising male politicians for their appearance, I wouldn't have liked to be the one lifting that buck in Roscommon.

Jayop

josip wrote: »

I think it's just the women for that combination of features. Lucinda's forehead only wrinkles because she does that thing or raising her eyebrows when she's being interviewed. Why I have no idea.
Wallace, his hair. Healy Raes the caps. Eamon O Cuiv, just for looking like Dev. Paul Murphy could his head be any more round? Look at Donnelly in Wicklow, he manages to get a bit of an egg shape on his head and that's well regarded.
I'm fierce judgemental and shallow.
Am I supposed to judge them on their policies and Dail committee track record?
In that case, why do photoshopped photos dominate their posters?

Rose Conway Walsh in Mayo looks nothing like her posters.

daviecronin

Really saddened to see Lucinda lose her seat. The only TD out there with balls and determination with a vision of how to change... Civil war politics over? I think not

Jayop

daviecronin wrote: »

Really saddened to see Lucinda lose her seat. The only TD out there with balls and determination with a vision of how to change... Civil war politics over? I think not

Balls yes, vision, I think not.

LeinsterDub

daviecronin wrote: »

Really saddened to see Lucinda lose her seat. The only TD out there with balls and determination with a vision of how to change... Civil war politics over? I think not

US republicanism doesn't sell well with the Irish electorate

K-9

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Yea there was a gut on TV just now, don't know who he is, but he said FG were picking up 2 seats in places where earlein the day they were only expected to get one, and that other partiyare picking up none where they were expected to get one or more.

Cannibalising Labour transfers.

Jayop

K-9 wrote: »

Cannibalising Labour transfers.

I'd say they regret the pact now.

K-9

daviecronin wrote: »

Really saddened to see Lucinda lose her seat. The only TD out there with balls and determination with a vision of how to change... Civil war politics over? I think not

SD's told it like it was, we need the USC to have decent public services.

Renua and flat taxes is a gimmick. Funding the shortfall in incomes would leave nothing for public services.

Fr Tod Umptious

The guy on RTE is Michael Marsh I think and he just predicted the following.

FG 53
FF 45
SF 20
AAA PBP 6
LAB 5
SD 3
GP 2
Ind 24.

So a decent enough gap there between FG and FF.
Interesting that the SD would not gain anything in his prediction.

Kristopherus

K-9 wrote: »

SD's told it like it was, we need the USC to have decent public services.

Renua and flat taxes is a gimmick. Funding the shortfall in incomes would leave nothing for public services.

We need a lot more than USC to run public services. Even when the country was awash with money, they had to borrow billions to run public services. And that has continued to this day.

K-9

I don't know, always liked McDowell. Creighton is no Michael McDowell.

Hasschu

I believe that FF will not enter into a Coalition arrangement with FG. For both of the parties it would be a short term gain. The junior partner would likely suffer a fate similar to Labour's in the present election. Factor in cute hoorism and short term opportunism and the decision for FF boils down to fear of punishment in the next election and access to a big spoon in the gravy bowl immediately. In my eyes that makes FF more likely to opt out and let a mixture of Independents and members of smaller parties directly or by crossing the floor subject themselves to short term gain and long term self destruction.
I am basing this on a combination of economic forecasts for world wide recessions , stagnation and slow growth and the pulling of the rug out from under Ireland as a Tax Evasion Capital of the world for giant multinational corporations. Reportedly rates as low as 2% using the Ireland, Nederlands, Bermuda gambit. This has to be taken into account by any FG partner who might be banking on a worldwide improvement steadily leading to a healthy economy over five years. The most downside risk is stagnation leading to a rancorous Coalition leading to an early break up or a five year disaster and self immolation for the junior partner.
My personal opinion is that FG and FF do not differ genetically or otherwise, I base this on being the son of an FF bag man and having delivered the unmarked cash in brown envelopes to the FG incumbent when they were in Government and their FF counterparts when they were in power. Keep in mind we live in an equeal opportunity democracy and appear quite incapable of cleaning out the Augean stables at the Polls.

oscarBravo

Jayop wrote: »

Rose Conway Walsh in Mayo looks nothing like her posters.

You think? The one time I met her I recognised her straight away from her posters.

Red Kev

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The guy on RTE is Michael Marsh I think and he just predicted the following.

FG 53
FF 45
SF 20
AAA PBP 6
LAB 5
SD 3
GP 2
Ind 24.

So a decent enough gap there between FG and FF.
Interesting that the SD would not gain anything in his prediction.

They have the three well known TD's and that's it. Their other candidates are relatively unknown locally and would hhave trouble getting proper penetration.

Having said that, I think they did very well, a couple of their candidates came close. I personally think we'll have another election this year and they should gain another seat or two, especially if Donnelly puts in another performance like the one he gave in the leaders debate.

My opinion is also that we may have 2-3 more elections over the next 2 years before we have a relatively stable government, though I reckon Kenny will be thrown out in June and replaced with Coveney, possibly Varadker.

If the SD's can hold their own over the next couple of years, avoid populism and stick to their policies, then they should have a good shot at doing well in the Europeans and Locals in 2019, providing a solid, long term base to work on.

I hope they are around for a long time.

Jayop

oscarBravo wrote: »

You think? The one time I met her I recognised her straight away from her posters.

I only seen her on vb and I thought she looked nothing like the posters I've seen

K-9

The SD's have a base now and a big threat to Labour. The old guard are gone from Labour barring Burton.

uck51js9zml2yt

K-9 wrote: »

The SD's have a base now and a big threat to Labour. The old guard are gone from Labour barring Burton.

Howlin is in.

marno21

Eliezer Hollow Staff wrote: »

Howlin is in.

Announcing both the Enniscorthy bypass & New Ross bypass in recent weeks helped his cause. Can also be looked at from the point of view that both important projects were delayed because he wanted to do a convenient sod turning in time for the election.

Jan O'Sullivan also now elected in Limerick which is downright bizarre.

K-9

Eliezer Hollow Staff wrote: »

Howlin is in.

Old guard.

The old Democratic Left bunch are gone, Gilmore, Rabitte, Byrne IIRC..

SD's are a huge threat with sane left policy with no baggage.