Hung Dail?

handlemaster

Is it just the spokes people for FG and FF that knows the difference between the two parties! They are more or less the same.. why pretend otherwise

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

I'd argue that FG were that little bit more honest and respectful of people's wishes than FF. Yes, I know they brought in watercharges and did a crap job of it, but if it wasn't that the alternative would have been far harsher and because FF necessitated the baleout deal, it became a necessity itself. Not that that matters much. I also think they'd be more socially liberal than FF.

Case in point: legalised abortion, compulsory Irish and a stronger split between Church and State would probably all be more likely with FG.

mrbrianj

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

I'd argue that FG were that little bit more honest and respectful of people's wishes than FF. Yes, I know they brought in watercharges and did a crap job of it, but if it wasn't that the alternative would have been far harsher and because FF necessitated the baleout deal, it became a necessity itself. Not that that matters much. I also think they'd be more socially liberal than FF.

Case in point: legalised abortion, compulsory Irish and a stronger split between Church and State would probably all be more likely with FG.

That sounds like the complete opposite of FG members I know!!
Old school FF and FG are cut from the same cloth, don't let Leo and young FG pull the wool over your eyes.

As for the last government people hoped for them to be honest and respectful, but got more of the same.

uck51js9zml2yt

The voting and particularly transfers made no sense.
There was a strong non party vote but very few transfers from SF to other parties.
Andrews was a case in point, just over 300 votes when eliminated with over 2000 of those non transferrable.... So much for their right to change pact.

Sleepy

mrbrianj wrote: »

They would then run the risk of being looking like sulks putting the party ahead of the country and by doing so giving FF the bounce in the next election.

They dropped the ball big time, I think they have to look as willing as possible to work for the country and let past good work stand and the bad spin fade.

How so? Once they appeared genuine in their public efforts to form a coalition, surely Fianna Fail would be the ones appearing to be the "sulks" that weren't prepared to put country before party when they refuse?

Abstaining from voting against Martin would be widely regarded as "statesman-like" and then it would be simply of waiting for Fianna Fail to hang themselves with the length of rope they'd been given and do something that would "force" Fine Gael to vote against them?

Maybe I've been watching too much West Wing / House of Cards but the politics seems fairly straight-forward here to me at least...

Esmeralda Large Supplement wrote: »

The voting and particularly transfers made no sense.
There was a strong non party vote but very few transfers from SF to other parties.
Andrews was a case in point, just over 300 votes when eliminated with over 2000 of those non transferrable.... So much for their right to change pact.

You expect sanity in transfers from SF voters?

Tabnabs

It's easy to forget how socially conservative FF are, historically. I suspect FG are cut from the sale cloth and the equality referendum was a Labour initiative which FG were happy to support, once they saw how the wind was blowing.

We won't see any Fine Fail grand coalition, party politics will trump national interest in that scenario. One FG commentator mentioned over the weekend that "the people had spoken" and it was time for FG to step back. I see Enda & Co. watching eagerly to see how strong a new FF Coalition will be, hammering them from the opposition benches and looking to capitalise on the inevitable trouncing that FF will get as the outgoing government party at election 161/162/17/18/19/20.

The thought of SF being the main opposition must come with quite a bit of amusement from the two main parties. Gerry Adams has shown himself to be a poor parliamentarian and a veritable dictator of the SF party. SF may be capable activists at local level, but when it comes to the national stage, they fail to impress. You have to remember that until almost 20 years ago, SF didn't believe in the legitimacy of Dáil Éireann and in 1997 Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin became the first non-abstentionist Sinn Féin TD to take a seat in Dáil Éireann since the Civil War. Handy the way they managed to iron out that little wrinkle!

But any talk of a seismic shift in the political landscape or the downfall in the establishment is complete fanciful thinking. Here we are again FG vs FF and ever was it thus.

uck51js9zml2yt

Sleepy wrote: »

You expect sanity in transfers from SF voters?

Ah here, do you think I'm altogether stupid
It makes a mockery of their so called left alliance and proves again that they are all words and no action.
The insane ones are those who believe the guff and vote for them.

handlemaster

I wonder who will benefit from the road contracts and other services for Kerry that come up

uck51js9zml2yt

handlemaster wrote: »

I wonder who will benefit from the road contracts and other services for Kerry that come up

You really have to ask ???;)

A Dub in Glasgo

Esmeralda Large Supplement wrote: »

Ah here, do you think I'm altogether stupid
It makes a mockery of their so called left alliance and proves again that they are all words and no action.
The insane ones are those who believe the guff and vote for them.

Maybe you guys can educate me as I am too used to FPTP in use here but I thought votes were deemed non-transferable when they cannot be sent to someone else. In the example of Andrews, the remaining candidates were FG, FF, Labour, and Green. What left alliance was left?

u2me

Interesting move from Martin - Dail reform is needed and this is an ideal opportunity before the coalition is formed.

The question is what can we expect from "real reform"?

FF previously outlined included:

Major limit on ability of government to control all business on an ongoing basis.
Set timings for legislation except in emergencies and an end to the practice of guillotines.
Earlier and more comprehensive review of legislation.
The establishment of an independent budget review office to review and cost all proposals brought to a vote by either government or opposition.
The establishment of an office of Independent Legal Advisor to the Oireachtas.
A new regulatory oversight process.

SF will look for auto register to vote using pps numbers (good idea) and a lowering of voting age to 16 (will be Rejected). Large seven-seat constituencies (will be Rejected)

FG Include:
end guillotines
minimal reform of the Seanad
Ceann Comhairle to be elected by secret ballot (should be rejected needs to be open imo).
Plus the other reforms they ducked out on previously.

Either-way all this will be very time consuming leaving plenty time for coalition arrangements to be ironed out.

KingBrian2

Anything about campaign finance reform. The Greens have been in favour of that for a long time and it would get rid of the allegations of corruption relating to big business donations.

u2me

No but I imagine as the reform will take place before the new government formation that all members will be involved and the green party will get to put this forward for review

Ray Burkes Pension

Looking at the likely final seats
fg - 50
ff - 44
sf - 23
lab - 8
aaa - 6
ia - 6
sd - 3
gr - 2
ind - 16
A ff-fg is the only realistic possibility. fg + lab + ia + sd + gr gives 69. Thats 11 sort of a majority. There isnt a chance they can get 11/16 of those independents. aaa and sf are never going to go into any goverenment with ff or fg and vice versa.

TCDStudent1

u2me wrote: »

Interesting move from Martin - Dail reform is needed and this is an ideal opportunity before the coalition is formed.

The question is what can we expect from "real reform"?

FF previously outlined included:

Major limit on ability of government to control all business on an ongoing basis.
Set timings for legislation except in emergencies and an end to the practice of guillotines.
Earlier and more comprehensive review of legislation.
The establishment of an independent budget review office to review and cost all proposals brought to a vote by either government or opposition.
The establishment of an office of Independent Legal Advisor to the Oireachtas.
A new regulatory oversight process.

SF will look for auto register to vote using pps numbers (good idea) and a lowering of voting age to 16 (will be Rejected). Large seven-seat constituencies (will be Rejected)

FG Include:
end guillotines
minimal reform of the Seanad
Ceann Comhairle to be elected by secret ballot (should be rejected needs to be open imo).
Plus the other reforms they ducked out on previously.

Either-way all this will be very time consuming leaving plenty time for coalition arrangements to be ironed out.

What are guillotines?

piuswal

How about FG/Kenny and others agreeing to Dail reform over the coming weeks.

FG then continuing as a minority Government proposing legislation on a case by case basis ensuring majority support before putting it to a vote.

Starting a debate on the next budget asap. Developing a consensus in as far as possible and then putting forward a budget in October.

If it is then voted down the Government have to call an election. Could you then see the advantage being with the Government given that they have worked through a reformed Dail to get as much consensus as possible?

Could FF realistically vote against a budget in such circumstances and then expect even more public support in an election?

piuswal

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

What are guillotines?

Basically a vote to end a debate by a certain time. Usually it means cutting short a debate.

Ren2k7

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Case in point: legalised abortion, compulsory Irish and a stronger split between Church and State would probably all be more likely with FG.

Are we talking about the same Fine Gael party that virtually split over X-case legislation and proposed dropping Irish as a compulsory subject in schools?

Hasschu

I predict that FF will shy away from forming a Coalition of any kind. Fear of a stagnant economy, end of Tax Evasion policy mandated by US and EU, rising interest rates mandated by ECB as ordered by the Bundesbank all point to a few tough years ahead. Access to the now smaller gravy bowl is surely tempting but it would lead to turmoil in the Coalition early on with annihilation at the next election. Standing by like an innocent Altar Server will be their winning strategy. After that a strong showing in the next election followed by a course of action we have seen repeated again and again. Let us hope Australia, Canada, USA, Britain and NZ continue to prosper and provide jobs for the victims of our dysfunctional governments.

TripleC

piuswal wrote: »

How about FG/Kenny and others agreeing to Dail reform over the coming weeks.

FG then continuing as a minority Government proposing legislation on a case by case basis ensuring majority support before putting it to a vote.

Starting a debate on the next budget asap. Developing a consensus in as far as possible and then putting forward a budget in October.

If it is then voted down the Government have to call an election. Could you then see the advantage being with the Government given that they have worked through a reformed Dail to get as much consensus as possible?

Could FF realistically vote against a budget in such circumstances and then expect even more public support in an election?

FF would do anything realistically if they thought it would be to their benefit.....including and especially voting against a budget.

I see the point you are trying to make but I don't see how it could work. Firstly, many of the far left parties spent this entire weekend bickering with eachother over ideological purity. I can't see any of the parish-pump independents voting for anything which even vaguely adversely affected their constituents. FF, you could bet, would be looking for any populist issue to seize upon, to cause an election.

Look at the practicalities. The far Left would probably seek to have Water Charges abolished. Can you see FG rubber stamping something like that. The same could be said for Wealth Taxes.

No, it just wouldn't work.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Ren2k7 wrote: »

Are we talking about the same Fine Gael party that virtually split over X-case legislation and proposed dropping Irish as a compulsory subject in schools?

Yes. Bear in mind, I said 'more likely'.

Abortion would not be considered under FF (unless it was good for FF) and forced the resignation of Crrighton.

Dropping compulsory Irish I would consider a socially liberal stand.

Sleepy

handlemaster wrote: »

I wonder who will benefit from the road contracts and other services for Kerry that come up

Why do you think Kerry will get anything spent on it? 30,000+ voters in Kerry have effectively given the Dail two fingers and asked to be ignored.

The Healy Raes can't play the same game Daddy did: there's no opportunity to be king makers so they won't be able to extort anything from the government.

Kerry Co Co will no doubt continue to fill the coffers of the Healy Raes via their plant hire and other businesses but I can't see Kerry getting much in the way of capital projects or the like after voting the way they have. Neither Brassil nor Griffin would seem to have much clout in the event of a FF / FG national interest government either...

TCDStudent1

Sleepy wrote: »

Why do you think Kerry will get anything spent on it? 30,000+ voters in Kerry have effectively given the Dail two fingers and asked to be ignored.

The Healy Raes can't play the same game Daddy did: there's no opportunity to be king makers so they won't be able to extort anything from the government.

Kerry Co Co will no doubt continue to fill the coffers of the Healy Raes via their plant hire and other businesses but I can't see Kerry getting much in the way of capital projects or the like after voting the way they have. Neither Brassil nor Griffin would seem to have much clout in the event of a FF / FG national interest government either...

They could be offered something to vote Martin for Taoiseach? FF are still behind FG so will need support from somewhere if they want Martin to be elected Taoiseach. On that, when it comes to electing a Taoiseach, how does it work? Do you require a minimum amount or is it whoever gets most votes wins???

Sleepy

A majority of the Dail would be the "minimum" for a stable government. Should there be abstentions, that number would fall to a majority of the votes.

u2me

I think both parties ff/fg are in a bind,

the grass roots will condemn an alliance and you may see members leave on both sides

both parties will look for covert opportunities to undermine each other during such alliance

Sinn Fein will be strengthened in opposition


But what if they don't form an alliance?.........

FF promised to not prop up a FG government but refusing to share power could lead to a backlash from voters in the following election.

Does Enda have any other option to avoid or survive a heave against his leadership. Leo/Simon are a viable option and I imagine they may well be sharpening their knives in the background.

The public does not want another general election – both parties may well be punished by the electorate -- further strengthening SF / independents possibly given them enough for a majority.


We seem set for a long month.....

glacial_pace71

For the FG/FF arrangement to come into force there needs to be some "what were the alternatives?" fire-walling.

So expect Mewhole to say "I hear the broad Left are continuing their 'conversation' (as Donnelly put it). Come to me with your joint proposals for a Programme for Govt and I'll negotiate with you. Partnership. Half the cabinet seats".

(Mewhole has now covered his FF spokespersons who said "we won't work with the Shinners", as it's now the SF+everything_else. Mewhole has also given SF the get-out-of-jail card on not 'propping up a right-wing party' as they're now 'leading a national movement' into a 'partnership government').

So the Right2Everything4Ever starts the internal conversation of the broad left. Immediately the AAA-PPP bolt, claiming it's a capitalist plot to undermine the defence of the working class etc etc. SF breathe a sigh of relief. Labour demand 2 of the 7 cabinet posts: even SF blush at this, but after an internal mumble it's seen that the SF-Lab has 30 seats to bring to the Govt before having to round up the others. The Social Democrats and Greens each get a Taoiseach's nominee to the Seanad, plus an Oireachtas Committee chairmanship and a Minister of State. For the SD the prospect of a Seanad seat, and thus another Oireachtas member, is a clincher to portray them as a national party - the negotiations on a platform for government are just gravy after that.

Eventually the Right2Evertyhing4Ever come to Mewhole with an amazing shopping list, consisting of practical things, e.g. legislation on reformed planning laws (a Green favourite but a good one to help FF put the cronyism thing behind them etc), the scrapping of water charges and perhaps Irish Water over time (i.e. recognition that it has entered into all sorts of contractual arrangements and that water infrastructure needs to be built/maintained). However, within it all there'll be a few red herrings, like something to trigger the Irish Farmers Association and ICMSA to howl, e.g. demands on hill-walkers' rights and open access etc. Perhaps also a trigger for the builders/developers wing of IBEC to howl, e.g. restoration of adequate building standards for apartment blocks etc. Perhaps something on workers' rights, to trigger howls from ISME and IBEC's Small Firms Association.

Mewhole gets to turn to the camera and say "I offered them a generous opportunity to go into Government, and they took the pizs: I can't negotiate a deal with the R2E4E". SF get to say to the public "we had within our grasp the scrapping of Irish Water: vote for us and not the AAA-PPP obstructionist Left and we can deliver real change". (SF also get to say to their own internal naysayers: look at what we nearly had! Add a few more seats in next year's election and we'll be revisiting all this again: think about what you want if you only have a 5 year programme for govt - what are your highest priorities?). The Greens and SDs get to say "we were responsible, we tried to put together a reforming Government, so don't punish us when the election comes".

Mewhole then turns to FG and starts the negotiations for FG/FF arrangement on the basis that he's bullet-proofed himself from the electorate's wrath if there's eventually another election from any breakdown in negotiations.

A Dub in Glasgo

I must be our of Ireland too long as I have no idea what the above is about

piuswal

TripleC wrote: »

FF would do anything realistically if they thought it would be to their benefit.....including and especially voting against a budget.

I see the point you are trying to make but I don't see how it could work. Firstly, many of the far left parties spent this entire weekend bickering with eachother over ideological purity. I can't see any of the parish-pump independents voting for anything which even vaguely adversely affected their constituents. FF, you could bet, would be looking for any populist issue to seize upon, to cause an election.

Look at the practicalities. The far Left would probably seek to have Water Charges abolished. Can you see FG rubber stamping something like that. The same could be said for Wealth Taxes.

No, it just wouldn't work.

Yes, water charges and a wealth tax are probably the 2 main stumbling blocks for FG.


Water Charges; given the paltry charge at present it would not be a huge issue to defer them for a certain period. Discuss with all parties the various structures that might deliver a proper water system, as FF seem to be suggesting. Have the various groups, particularly FF, discuss directly with the EU, or whoever, the long term implications of what they are proposing and see who would/could buy into an agreed system the.

Wealth tax; I would hope that FG have now realised that maintaining /improving services has a majority, significant, support within the electorate
and so they should be willing to make significant concessions in that area,maybe lean towards their "social justice" Declan Costelloe cohort of the 60's and 70's.


Solve those 2 issues, which could be done , and away they go.

u2me

Its a funny thing I remember a man who went on the late late show who intended on selling bottled water in this country and they laughed him off the show, Who's laughing now?

If you consider we are willing to pay a €1 euro or more for 500ml of tap water in a bottle from your local store it seems reasonable to me that paying €160 a year for all your water needs at home is not that bad a deal considering it is €750-800 in Holland and Germany.

Our relationship with water in this country is one of contempt, we believe because it pisses out the sky continuously that we have a divine right to leave our taps on all night and not give a crap, but this outdated attitude needs to change.

That said, Irish water in its infancy has made some terrible decisions in their attempts to tackle our outdated water service system, which has led to strong animosity to the company.

If we look at the party proposals:

Fianna Fáil

■ Scrap charges. Abolish Irish Water, and replace it with a National Water Directorate to oversee upgrades. Local authorities to operate the network.

■ Abolish the Water Conservation grant.


Sinn Féin

■ Abolish water charges and dismantle Irish Water.

■ Stop the metering programme, roll-out conservation programme and hold a referendum to enshrine public ownership of water services in the Constitution.

■ Establish independent commission to examine most appropriate ownership model, and report back to government in nine months.


Labour

■ Retain Irish Water and charges.

■ Retain public supply in public ownership and prevent sale to private sector.

■ Continue to invest in the network.


Social Democrats

■ Abolish charges, the conservation grant and Irish Water. Reconstitute the company as a public body, and hold a referendum to ensure it remains in public ownership.

■ Halt meter rollout.

■ Conduct full and open financial review of Irish Water to identify what cost savings can be achieved and how savings can be reinvested in the system.


Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit

■ Abolish charges and fund system through general taxation.

■ Introduce rainwater harvesting to reduce demand.

■ Abolish Irish Water and propose a constitutional amendment to prevent privatisation.

■ End metering programme and direct investment to leak repair.


Green Party

■ Overhaul Irish Water, and reduce its role to overseeing and directing investment.

■ Allocate free water allowance to all citizens, and charge for excessive waste of water.

■ Tax incentives to be offered for installing water efficiency measures
Water charges are a necessary evil, we waste so much

The one thing that is clear is that we will be paying water charges either way whether this is through a different taxation or local authority charges etc.

I believe it would probably be best to leave Irish water in place, but it needs to be operate more in line with that of a private operation rather than a public enterprise. It needs to be stripped back and streamlined to run efficiently. There seems to be so much waste in their processes and a lot of management issues which need to be resolved. I imagine a full and open independent review to identify opportunities to minimize waste throughout their operations would be a good start.

Also introducing a free allowance with high penalty charges for waste should be consider, those who waste most pays most, also an incentive scheme for water harvesting would also be worth considering.

Wasting another 7bn shutting down an organization which has not yet had the opportunity to find its feet seem typical of the Irish political system. We can put it in with the electronic voting etc in the "oops we did it again" box.... and spend another excessive amount introducing another system likely to be equally incompetent.

We need to start thinking and acting smarter by working together. This country, its electorate need politicians to for once join together to form a government which can put the people first and their coffers second.

KingBrian2

Yes U2me to add to that I must those who can't afford to pay have to be separated from those that won't pay and the won't pay people must be penalised. To encourage people to refuse to pay for a service we all use is one clear way of derailing a working solution.

piuswal

The opinion of a person who worked in the modernising of the management of water supplies to a large city abroad;

Irish Water is a disgrace, why?

the whole operation - structure,pricing - most complicated have ever seen

how it was presented to public etc

Fr Tod Umptious

u2me wrote: »

Its a funny thing I remember a man who went on the late late show who intended on selling bottled water in this country and they laughed him off the show, Who's laughing now?

If you consider we are willing to pay a €1 euro or more for 500ml of tap water in a bottle from your local store it seems reasonable to me that paying €160 a year for all your water needs at home is not that bad a deal considering it is €750-800 in Holland and Germany.

Our relationship with water in this country is one of contempt, we believe because it pisses out the sky continuously that we have a divine right to leave our taps on all night and not give a crap, but this outdated attitude needs to change.

That said, Irish water in its infancy has made some terrible decisions in their attempts to tackle our outdated water service system, which has led to strong animosity to the company.

If we look at the party proposals:

Fianna Fáil

■ Scrap charges. Abolish Irish Water, and replace it with a National Water Directorate to oversee upgrades. Local authorities to operate the network.

■ Abolish the Water Conservation grant.


Sinn Féin

■ Abolish water charges and dismantle Irish Water.

■ Stop the metering programme, roll-out conservation programme and hold a referendum to enshrine public ownership of water services in the Constitution.

■ Establish independent commission to examine most appropriate ownership model, and report back to government in nine months.


Labour

■ Retain Irish Water and charges.

■ Retain public supply in public ownership and prevent sale to private sector.

■ Continue to invest in the network.


Social Democrats

■ Abolish charges, the conservation grant and Irish Water. Reconstitute the company as a public body, and hold a referendum to ensure it remains in public ownership.

■ Halt meter rollout.

■ Conduct full and open financial review of Irish Water to identify what cost savings can be achieved and how savings can be reinvested in the system.


Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit

■ Abolish charges and fund system through general taxation.

■ Introduce rainwater harvesting to reduce demand.

■ Abolish Irish Water and propose a constitutional amendment to prevent privatisation.

■ End metering programme and direct investment to leak repair.


Green Party

■ Overhaul Irish Water, and reduce its role to overseeing and directing investment.

■ Allocate free water allowance to all citizens, and charge for excessive waste of water.

■ Tax incentives to be offered for installing water efficiency measures
Water charges are a necessary evil, we waste so much

The one thing that is clear is that we will be paying water charges either way whether this is through a different taxation or local authority charges etc.

I believe it would probably be best to leave Irish water in place, but it needs to be operate more in line with that of a private operation rather than a public enterprise. It needs to be stripped back and streamlined to run efficiently. There seems to be so much waste in their processes and a lot of management issues which need to be resolved. I imagine a full and open independent review to identify opportunities to minimize waste throughout their operations would be a good start.

Also introducing a free allowance with high penalty charges for waste should be consider, those who waste most pays most, also an incentive scheme for water harvesting would also be worth considering.

Wasting another 7bn shutting down an organization which has not yet had the opportunity to find its feet seem typical of the Irish political system. We can put it in with the electronic voting etc in the "oops we did it again" box.... and spend another excessive amount introducing another system likely to be equally incompetent.

We need to start thinking and acting smarter by working together. This country, its electorate need politicians to for once join together to form a government which can put the people first and their coffers second.

The bit in bold at the end.

I fear that it will be the opposite in the 32nd Dail.

Firstly I'm not a total cynic when it comes to politicians.
I think the majority are in the game because they want to do their part and they are to a degree "power hungry", they like the status that comes with being in power.
I doubt many are on it for the money, just look at the hours they keep and the hassle they get, plus your job is up for grabs at least every 5 years.
There are easier was of making a good living.

Anyway back to my point.
I think the focus of FF and FG in the 32nd Dail will not to allow the other, or SF, get the upper hand.

A FG minority will be wary of FF pulling the rug form under them, and claiming some moral high ground.
At the same time FF will be keen not to be seen as the selfish ones if a govt does fall.
FF are scared to death of SF being the main party of opposition.

No one will be comfortable and I fear that the tougher decisions will not be taken for fear of the backlash.

KingBrian2

piuswal wrote: »

The opinion of a person who worked in the modernising of the management of water supplies to a large city abroad;

Irish Water is a disgrace, why?

the whole operation - structure,pricing - most complicated have ever seen

how it was presented to public etc

People were complaining about the bills. Those that could pay didn't bother to. Irish society silently condones the taking of drugs on Dublin city, when it comes to letting people abscond from paying a huge bill the anti crowd are eager to attack the gvt.

u2me

Alas that is political, everything to every man and loyal to no one. It is a shame that in times of need that they could not with hold the power games and act in the interest of those who elected them, rather than repeating history - make some history.

but your right they will prob end up with one or the other being undermining with SF having a field day in opposition, but it would be nice to dream that one day these politicians would rise above our low expectations of them.

KingBrian2

u2me wrote: »

Alas that is political, everything to every man and loyal to no one. It is a shame that in times of need that they could not with hold the power games and act in the interest of those who elected them, rather than repeating history - make some history.

but your right they will prob end up with one or the other being undermining with SF having a field day in opposition, but it would be nice to dream that one day these politicians would rise above our low expectations of them.

SF don't care about the country nor FF they all crave media attention and putting the party first. Everyone knows the water charges are good for the country and a sound way of water management. The populists don't want what is best. They supported the housing boom & passing the blame onto Europe. An article the other day was spouting out how the € was a disaster for the country when in fact it encouraged us to restore our battered exchequer.

u2me

They all care, don't think anyone would go into politics if they did'nt care it would not be worth the grief. They just get consumed by the game that is politics and become dis-attached from why they are there in the first place - to serve the people.

Looks like both sides are considering their next moves in what should be an interesting little chess match.

FF now has cross party support for Dail reform (Greens, AAA-PBP and the Social Democrats so far) and will put Martin forward for Taoiseach.

FG are busy trying to find some calm in the chaos. Coveney may have moved to soon. Kenny has a lot of palms to grease if he is going to with stand the coming heave.

The coalition itself should not represent a problem - both advocate economic responsibility, are pro-business and are conservative on social issues.

The lead up to the coalition represents the biggest hurdle.

johnnyskeleton

Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest

It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.

They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.

Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.

I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.

An Ciarraioch

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest

It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.

They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.

Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.

I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.

I presume the SDs and Greens are maximising their hands also - get the greatest possible speaking rights from both FF and FG, before promptly abstaining in the votes for Taoiseach once they secure written guarantees!

Mr.Micro

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest

It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.

They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.

Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.

I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.

Even if he managed it, it could not possibly last without the support of SF. Maybe he is just desperate to be Taoiseach?

u2me

Seems any of the FG ministers interviewed say they that Kenny has the backing of the party (or key ministers anyway) but always indicate this is only secure for the short term.

Imagine as the coming week unfolds we will get a better understanding of positions and likely outcomes.

TCDStudent1

u2me wrote: »

Seems any of the FG ministers interviewed say they that Kenny has the backing of the party (or key ministers anyway) but always indicate this is only secure for the short term.

Imagine as the coming week unfolds we will get a better understanding of positions and likely outcomes.

After the way they messed up the last heave against kenny, I can understand why they are reluctant to risk it again.

If Martin does get the numbers for Taoiseach, then kennys time will be up.

u2me

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

After the way they messed up the last heave against kenny, I can understand why they are reluctant to risk it again.

If Martin does get the numbers for Taoiseach, then kennys time will be up.

They need to be sure of support and to make sure there is no spies in the camp. Kenny has plenty of experience in dealing with heaves but I think they all realize he is now a liability as they move forward.

Similarly Martin, while basking in the momentary election success is not seen by many as the ideal leader of FF and would be the subject of a heave if things had not played out as they did - safe for another while......

Fr Tod Umptious

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest

It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.

They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.

Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.

I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.

Anything constructed by FF/SF/Indies etc will not last beyond budget time.

One of the latter two will cut a run if they think that an unpopular decision has to be made.

Unless FG get some sort of strong committment of support from FF and belive that they can insulate themselves from FF taking the high ground if things do break down then I can't see anything other than another election.

u2me

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Anything constructed by FF/SF/Indies etc will not last beyond budget time.

One of the latter two will cut a run if they think that an unpopular decision has to be made.

Unless FG get some sort of strong committment of support from FF and belive that they can insulate themselves from FF taking the high ground if things do break down then I can't see anything other than another election.

Don't think it is possible to have a minority government, How could they ensure the stability of such a government? Would you believe the promise of your arch rival not to take it down? it would be too easy to undermine, collapse and they would be left in a weak position going into the next election. It will prob take 2 months before a government is formed. Next Thursday should give us some insight with the vote on a new Taoiseach.

TCDStudent1

u2me wrote: »

Don't think it is possible to have a minority government, How could they ensure the stability of such a government? Would you believe the promise of your arch rival not to take it down? it would be too easy to undermine, collapse and they would be left in a weak position going into the next election. It will prob take 2 months before a government is formed. Next Thursday should give us some insight with the vote on a new Taoiseach.

The thing is though that if FF did take down a minority FG government early on, it'd reflect very badly on them. I could see that backfiring! Which I guess is what makes this so fascinating.

Fr Tod Umptious

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

The thing is though that if FF did take down a minority FG government early on, it'd reflect very badly on them. I could see that backfiring! Which I guess is what makes this so fascinating.

It all depends on the nature of the takedown though, and who convinces the public that they have the high moral ground.

It is fascinating alright but over the past few years we have read plenty here on the virtues of having a lot of independents in parliament and how they will somehow keep the big parties in check and make them more accountable etc.

What utter BS.

Confusion is all we have right now and the Dail has not even sat yet.

TCDStudent1

I like the idea of a minister for rural affairs being advocated for by the Healy-raes and fitzmaurice. At least it's something beyond their own constituency and has potential for doing good

KingBrian2

I wonder who will be the Minister for Finance the most important position in Irish politics after the Taoiseach.

TCDStudent1

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I wonder who will be the Minister for Finance the most important position in Irish politics after the Taoiseach.

2 candidates:

Michael Noonan
Michael McGrath

RobbingBandit

If a new election was called could anyone that missed out on being elected change their party status and run as an independent or even run for a different party or are they all as it was? Also who pays for the posters and advertisement next time round as losing twice in quick sucession would be a logistical nightmare imo.