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Hung Dail?
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Interesting move from Martin - Dail reform is needed and this is an ideal opportunity before the coalition is formed.
The question is what can we expect from "real reform"?
FF previously outlined included:
Major limit on ability of government to control all business on an ongoing basis.
Set timings for legislation except in emergencies and an end to the practice of guillotines.
Earlier and more comprehensive review of legislation.
The establishment of an independent budget review office to review and cost all proposals brought to a vote by either government or opposition.
The establishment of an office of Independent Legal Advisor to the Oireachtas.
A new regulatory oversight process.
SF will look for auto register to vote using pps numbers (good idea) and a lowering of voting age to 16 (will be Rejected). Large seven-seat constituencies (will be Rejected)
FG Include:
end guillotines
minimal reform of the Seanad
Ceann Comhairle to be elected by secret ballot (should be rejected needs to be open imo).
Plus the other reforms they ducked out on previously.
Either-way all this will be very time consuming leaving plenty time for coalition arrangements to be ironed out.0 -
Anything about campaign finance reform. The Greens have been in favour of that for a long time and it would get rid of the allegations of corruption relating to big business donations.0
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No but I imagine as the reform will take place before the new government formation that all members will be involved and the green party will get to put this forward for review0
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Looking at the likely final seats
fg - 50
ff - 44
sf - 23
lab - 8
aaa - 6
ia - 6
sd - 3
gr - 2
ind - 16
A ff-fg is the only realistic possibility. fg + lab + ia + sd + gr gives 69. Thats 11 sort of a majority. There isnt a chance they can get 11/16 of those independents. aaa and sf are never going to go into any goverenment with ff or fg and vice versa.0 -
Interesting move from Martin - Dail reform is needed and this is an ideal opportunity before the coalition is formed.
The question is what can we expect from "real reform"?
FF previously outlined included:
Major limit on ability of government to control all business on an ongoing basis.
Set timings for legislation except in emergencies and an end to the practice of guillotines.
Earlier and more comprehensive review of legislation.
The establishment of an independent budget review office to review and cost all proposals brought to a vote by either government or opposition.
The establishment of an office of Independent Legal Advisor to the Oireachtas.
A new regulatory oversight process.
SF will look for auto register to vote using pps numbers (good idea) and a lowering of voting age to 16 (will be Rejected). Large seven-seat constituencies (will be Rejected)
FG Include:
end guillotines
minimal reform of the Seanad
Ceann Comhairle to be elected by secret ballot (should be rejected needs to be open imo).
Plus the other reforms they ducked out on previously.
Either-way all this will be very time consuming leaving plenty time for coalition arrangements to be ironed out.
What are guillotines?0 -
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How about FG/Kenny and others agreeing to Dail reform over the coming weeks.
FG then continuing as a minority Government proposing legislation on a case by case basis ensuring majority support before putting it to a vote.
Starting a debate on the next budget asap. Developing a consensus in as far as possible and then putting forward a budget in October.
If it is then voted down the Government have to call an election. Could you then see the advantage being with the Government given that they have worked through a reformed Dail to get as much consensus as possible?
Could FF realistically vote against a budget in such circumstances and then expect even more public support in an election?0 -
TCDStudent1 wrote: »What are guillotines?
Basically a vote to end a debate by a certain time. Usually it means cutting short a debate.0 -
Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »
Case in point: legalised abortion, compulsory Irish and a stronger split between Church and State would probably all be more likely with FG.
Are we talking about the same Fine Gael party that virtually split over X-case legislation and proposed dropping Irish as a compulsory subject in schools?0 -
I predict that FF will shy away from forming a Coalition of any kind. Fear of a stagnant economy, end of Tax Evasion policy mandated by US and EU, rising interest rates mandated by ECB as ordered by the Bundesbank all point to a few tough years ahead. Access to the now smaller gravy bowl is surely tempting but it would lead to turmoil in the Coalition early on with annihilation at the next election. Standing by like an innocent Altar Server will be their winning strategy. After that a strong showing in the next election followed by a course of action we have seen repeated again and again. Let us hope Australia, Canada, USA, Britain and NZ continue to prosper and provide jobs for the victims of our dysfunctional governments.0
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How about FG/Kenny and others agreeing to Dail reform over the coming weeks.
FG then continuing as a minority Government proposing legislation on a case by case basis ensuring majority support before putting it to a vote.
Starting a debate on the next budget asap. Developing a consensus in as far as possible and then putting forward a budget in October.
If it is then voted down the Government have to call an election. Could you then see the advantage being with the Government given that they have worked through a reformed Dail to get as much consensus as possible?
Could FF realistically vote against a budget in such circumstances and then expect even more public support in an election?
FF would do anything realistically if they thought it would be to their benefit.....including and especially voting against a budget.
I see the point you are trying to make but I don't see how it could work. Firstly, many of the far left parties spent this entire weekend bickering with eachother over ideological purity. I can't see any of the parish-pump independents voting for anything which even vaguely adversely affected their constituents. FF, you could bet, would be looking for any populist issue to seize upon, to cause an election.
Look at the practicalities. The far Left would probably seek to have Water Charges abolished. Can you see FG rubber stamping something like that. The same could be said for Wealth Taxes.
No, it just wouldn't work.0 -
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Are we talking about the same Fine Gael party that virtually split over X-case legislation and proposed dropping Irish as a compulsory subject in schools?
Yes. Bear in mind, I said 'more likely'.
Abortion would not be considered under FF (unless it was good for FF) and forced the resignation of Crrighton.
Dropping compulsory Irish I would consider a socially liberal stand.Everything I don't like is either woke or fascist - possibly both - pick one.
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Why do you think Kerry will get anything spent on it? 30,000+ voters in Kerry have effectively given the Dail two fingers and asked to be ignored.handlemaster wrote: »I wonder who will benefit from the road contracts and other services for Kerry that come up
The Healy Raes can't play the same game Daddy did: there's no opportunity to be king makers so they won't be able to extort anything from the government.
Kerry Co Co will no doubt continue to fill the coffers of the Healy Raes via their plant hire and other businesses but I can't see Kerry getting much in the way of capital projects or the like after voting the way they have. Neither Brassil nor Griffin would seem to have much clout in the event of a FF / FG national interest government either...0 -
Why do you think Kerry will get anything spent on it? 30,000+ voters in Kerry have effectively given the Dail two fingers and asked to be ignored.
The Healy Raes can't play the same game Daddy did: there's no opportunity to be king makers so they won't be able to extort anything from the government.
Kerry Co Co will no doubt continue to fill the coffers of the Healy Raes via their plant hire and other businesses but I can't see Kerry getting much in the way of capital projects or the like after voting the way they have. Neither Brassil nor Griffin would seem to have much clout in the event of a FF / FG national interest government either...
They could be offered something to vote Martin for Taoiseach? FF are still behind FG so will need support from somewhere if they want Martin to be elected Taoiseach. On that, when it comes to electing a Taoiseach, how does it work? Do you require a minimum amount or is it whoever gets most votes wins???0 -
A majority of the Dail would be the "minimum" for a stable government. Should there be abstentions, that number would fall to a majority of the votes.0
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I think both parties ff/fg are in a bind,
the grass roots will condemn an alliance and you may see members leave on both sides
both parties will look for covert opportunities to undermine each other during such alliance
Sinn Fein will be strengthened in opposition
But what if they don't form an alliance?.........
FF promised to not prop up a FG government but refusing to share power could lead to a backlash from voters in the following election.
Does Enda have any other option to avoid or survive a heave against his leadership. Leo/Simon are a viable option and I imagine they may well be sharpening their knives in the background.
The public does not want another general election – both parties may well be punished by the electorate -- further strengthening SF / independents possibly given them enough for a majority.
We seem set for a long month.....0 -
For the FG/FF arrangement to come into force there needs to be some "what were the alternatives?" fire-walling.
So expect Mewhole to say "I hear the broad Left are continuing their 'conversation' (as Donnelly put it). Come to me with your joint proposals for a Programme for Govt and I'll negotiate with you. Partnership. Half the cabinet seats".
(Mewhole has now covered his FF spokespersons who said "we won't work with the Shinners", as it's now the SF+everything_else. Mewhole has also given SF the get-out-of-jail card on not 'propping up a right-wing party' as they're now 'leading a national movement' into a 'partnership government').
So the Right2Everything4Ever starts the internal conversation of the broad left. Immediately the AAA-PPP bolt, claiming it's a capitalist plot to undermine the defence of the working class etc etc. SF breathe a sigh of relief. Labour demand 2 of the 7 cabinet posts: even SF blush at this, but after an internal mumble it's seen that the SF-Lab has 30 seats to bring to the Govt before having to round up the others. The Social Democrats and Greens each get a Taoiseach's nominee to the Seanad, plus an Oireachtas Committee chairmanship and a Minister of State. For the SD the prospect of a Seanad seat, and thus another Oireachtas member, is a clincher to portray them as a national party - the negotiations on a platform for government are just gravy after that.
Eventually the Right2Evertyhing4Ever come to Mewhole with an amazing shopping list, consisting of practical things, e.g. legislation on reformed planning laws (a Green favourite but a good one to help FF put the cronyism thing behind them etc), the scrapping of water charges and perhaps Irish Water over time (i.e. recognition that it has entered into all sorts of contractual arrangements and that water infrastructure needs to be built/maintained). However, within it all there'll be a few red herrings, like something to trigger the Irish Farmers Association and ICMSA to howl, e.g. demands on hill-walkers' rights and open access etc. Perhaps also a trigger for the builders/developers wing of IBEC to howl, e.g. restoration of adequate building standards for apartment blocks etc. Perhaps something on workers' rights, to trigger howls from ISME and IBEC's Small Firms Association.
Mewhole gets to turn to the camera and say "I offered them a generous opportunity to go into Government, and they took the pizs: I can't negotiate a deal with the R2E4E". SF get to say to the public "we had within our grasp the scrapping of Irish Water: vote for us and not the AAA-PPP obstructionist Left and we can deliver real change". (SF also get to say to their own internal naysayers: look at what we nearly had! Add a few more seats in next year's election and we'll be revisiting all this again: think about what you want if you only have a 5 year programme for govt - what are your highest priorities?). The Greens and SDs get to say "we were responsible, we tried to put together a reforming Government, so don't punish us when the election comes".
Mewhole then turns to FG and starts the negotiations for FG/FF arrangement on the basis that he's bullet-proofed himself from the electorate's wrath if there's eventually another election from any breakdown in negotiations.0 -
I must be our of Ireland too long as I have no idea what the above is about0
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FF would do anything realistically if they thought it would be to their benefit.....including and especially voting against a budget.
I see the point you are trying to make but I don't see how it could work. Firstly, many of the far left parties spent this entire weekend bickering with eachother over ideological purity. I can't see any of the parish-pump independents voting for anything which even vaguely adversely affected their constituents. FF, you could bet, would be looking for any populist issue to seize upon, to cause an election.
Look at the practicalities. The far Left would probably seek to have Water Charges abolished. Can you see FG rubber stamping something like that. The same could be said for Wealth Taxes.
No, it just wouldn't work.
Yes, water charges and a wealth tax are probably the 2 main stumbling blocks for FG.
Water Charges; given the paltry charge at present it would not be a huge issue to defer them for a certain period. Discuss with all parties the various structures that might deliver a proper water system, as FF seem to be suggesting. Have the various groups, particularly FF, discuss directly with the EU, or whoever, the long term implications of what they are proposing and see who would/could buy into an agreed system the.
Wealth tax; I would hope that FG have now realised that maintaining /improving services has a majority, significant, support within the electorate
and so they should be willing to make significant concessions in that area,maybe lean towards their "social justice" Declan Costelloe cohort of the 60's and 70's.
Solve those 2 issues, which could be done , and away they go.0 -
Its a funny thing I remember a man who went on the late late show who intended on selling bottled water in this country and they laughed him off the show, Who's laughing now?
If you consider we are willing to pay a €1 euro or more for 500ml of tap water in a bottle from your local store it seems reasonable to me that paying €160 a year for all your water needs at home is not that bad a deal considering it is €750-800 in Holland and Germany.
Our relationship with water in this country is one of contempt, we believe because it pisses out the sky continuously that we have a divine right to leave our taps on all night and not give a crap, but this outdated attitude needs to change.
That said, Irish water in its infancy has made some terrible decisions in their attempts to tackle our outdated water service system, which has led to strong animosity to the company.
If we look at the party proposals:
Fianna Fáil
■ Scrap charges. Abolish Irish Water, and replace it with a National Water Directorate to oversee upgrades. Local authorities to operate the network.
■ Abolish the Water Conservation grant.
Sinn Féin
■ Abolish water charges and dismantle Irish Water.
■ Stop the metering programme, roll-out conservation programme and hold a referendum to enshrine public ownership of water services in the Constitution.
■ Establish independent commission to examine most appropriate ownership model, and report back to government in nine months.
Labour
■ Retain Irish Water and charges.
■ Retain public supply in public ownership and prevent sale to private sector.
■ Continue to invest in the network.
Social Democrats
■ Abolish charges, the conservation grant and Irish Water. Reconstitute the company as a public body, and hold a referendum to ensure it remains in public ownership.
■ Halt meter rollout.
■ Conduct full and open financial review of Irish Water to identify what cost savings can be achieved and how savings can be reinvested in the system.
Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit
■ Abolish charges and fund system through general taxation.
■ Introduce rainwater harvesting to reduce demand.
■ Abolish Irish Water and propose a constitutional amendment to prevent privatisation.
■ End metering programme and direct investment to leak repair.
Green Party
■ Overhaul Irish Water, and reduce its role to overseeing and directing investment.
■ Allocate free water allowance to all citizens, and charge for excessive waste of water.
■ Tax incentives to be offered for installing water efficiency measures
Water charges are a necessary evil, we waste so much
The one thing that is clear is that we will be paying water charges either way whether this is through a different taxation or local authority charges etc.
I believe it would probably be best to leave Irish water in place, but it needs to be operate more in line with that of a private operation rather than a public enterprise. It needs to be stripped back and streamlined to run efficiently. There seems to be so much waste in their processes and a lot of management issues which need to be resolved. I imagine a full and open independent review to identify opportunities to minimize waste throughout their operations would be a good start.
Also introducing a free allowance with high penalty charges for waste should be consider, those who waste most pays most, also an incentive scheme for water harvesting would also be worth considering.
Wasting another 7bn shutting down an organization which has not yet had the opportunity to find its feet seem typical of the Irish political system. We can put it in with the electronic voting etc in the "oops we did it again" box.... and spend another excessive amount introducing another system likely to be equally incompetent.
We need to start thinking and acting smarter by working together. This country, its electorate need politicians to for once join together to form a government which can put the people first and their coffers second.0 -
Yes U2me to add to that I must those who can't afford to pay have to be separated from those that won't pay and the won't pay people must be penalised. To encourage people to refuse to pay for a service we all use is one clear way of derailing a working solution.0
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The opinion of a person who worked in the modernising of the management of water supplies to a large city abroad;
Irish Water is a disgrace, why?
the whole operation - structure,pricing - most complicated have ever seen
how it was presented to public etc0 -
Its a funny thing I remember a man who went on the late late show who intended on selling bottled water in this country and they laughed him off the show, Who's laughing now?
If you consider we are willing to pay a €1 euro or more for 500ml of tap water in a bottle from your local store it seems reasonable to me that paying €160 a year for all your water needs at home is not that bad a deal considering it is €750-800 in Holland and Germany.
Our relationship with water in this country is one of contempt, we believe because it pisses out the sky continuously that we have a divine right to leave our taps on all night and not give a crap, but this outdated attitude needs to change.
That said, Irish water in its infancy has made some terrible decisions in their attempts to tackle our outdated water service system, which has led to strong animosity to the company.
If we look at the party proposals:
Fianna Fáil
■ Scrap charges. Abolish Irish Water, and replace it with a National Water Directorate to oversee upgrades. Local authorities to operate the network.
■ Abolish the Water Conservation grant.
Sinn Féin
■ Abolish water charges and dismantle Irish Water.
■ Stop the metering programme, roll-out conservation programme and hold a referendum to enshrine public ownership of water services in the Constitution.
■ Establish independent commission to examine most appropriate ownership model, and report back to government in nine months.
Labour
■ Retain Irish Water and charges.
■ Retain public supply in public ownership and prevent sale to private sector.
■ Continue to invest in the network.
Social Democrats
■ Abolish charges, the conservation grant and Irish Water. Reconstitute the company as a public body, and hold a referendum to ensure it remains in public ownership.
■ Halt meter rollout.
■ Conduct full and open financial review of Irish Water to identify what cost savings can be achieved and how savings can be reinvested in the system.
Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit
■ Abolish charges and fund system through general taxation.
■ Introduce rainwater harvesting to reduce demand.
■ Abolish Irish Water and propose a constitutional amendment to prevent privatisation.
■ End metering programme and direct investment to leak repair.
Green Party
■ Overhaul Irish Water, and reduce its role to overseeing and directing investment.
■ Allocate free water allowance to all citizens, and charge for excessive waste of water.
■ Tax incentives to be offered for installing water efficiency measures
Water charges are a necessary evil, we waste so much
The one thing that is clear is that we will be paying water charges either way whether this is through a different taxation or local authority charges etc.
I believe it would probably be best to leave Irish water in place, but it needs to be operate more in line with that of a private operation rather than a public enterprise. It needs to be stripped back and streamlined to run efficiently. There seems to be so much waste in their processes and a lot of management issues which need to be resolved. I imagine a full and open independent review to identify opportunities to minimize waste throughout their operations would be a good start.
Also introducing a free allowance with high penalty charges for waste should be consider, those who waste most pays most, also an incentive scheme for water harvesting would also be worth considering.
Wasting another 7bn shutting down an organization which has not yet had the opportunity to find its feet seem typical of the Irish political system. We can put it in with the electronic voting etc in the "oops we did it again" box.... and spend another excessive amount introducing another system likely to be equally incompetent.
We need to start thinking and acting smarter by working together. This country, its electorate need politicians to for once join together to form a government which can put the people first and their coffers second.
The bit in bold at the end.
I fear that it will be the opposite in the 32nd Dail.
Firstly I'm not a total cynic when it comes to politicians.
I think the majority are in the game because they want to do their part and they are to a degree "power hungry", they like the status that comes with being in power.
I doubt many are on it for the money, just look at the hours they keep and the hassle they get, plus your job is up for grabs at least every 5 years.
There are easier was of making a good living.
Anyway back to my point.
I think the focus of FF and FG in the 32nd Dail will not to allow the other, or SF, get the upper hand.
A FG minority will be wary of FF pulling the rug form under them, and claiming some moral high ground.
At the same time FF will be keen not to be seen as the selfish ones if a govt does fall.
FF are scared to death of SF being the main party of opposition.
No one will be comfortable and I fear that the tougher decisions will not be taken for fear of the backlash.0 -
The opinion of a person who worked in the modernising of the management of water supplies to a large city abroad;
Irish Water is a disgrace, why?
the whole operation - structure,pricing - most complicated have ever seen
how it was presented to public etc
People were complaining about the bills. Those that could pay didn't bother to. Irish society silently condones the taking of drugs on Dublin city, when it comes to letting people abscond from paying a huge bill the anti crowd are eager to attack the gvt.0 -
Alas that is political, everything to every man and loyal to no one. It is a shame that in times of need that they could not with hold the power games and act in the interest of those who elected them, rather than repeating history - make some history.
but your right they will prob end up with one or the other being undermining with SF having a field day in opposition, but it would be nice to dream that one day these politicians would rise above our low expectations of them.0 -
Alas that is political, everything to every man and loyal to no one. It is a shame that in times of need that they could not with hold the power games and act in the interest of those who elected them, rather than repeating history - make some history.
but your right they will prob end up with one or the other being undermining with SF having a field day in opposition, but it would be nice to dream that one day these politicians would rise above our low expectations of them.
SF don't care about the country nor FF they all crave media attention and putting the party first. Everyone knows the water charges are good for the country and a sound way of water management. The populists don't want what is best. They supported the housing boom & passing the blame onto Europe. An article the other day was spouting out how the € was a disaster for the country when in fact it encouraged us to restore our battered exchequer.0 -
They all care, don't think anyone would go into politics if they did'nt care it would not be worth the grief. They just get consumed by the game that is politics and become dis-attached from why they are there in the first place - to serve the people.
Looks like both sides are considering their next moves in what should be an interesting little chess match.
FF now has cross party support for Dail reform (Greens, AAA-PBP and the Social Democrats so far) and will put Martin forward for Taoiseach.
FG are busy trying to find some calm in the chaos. Coveney may have moved to soon. Kenny has a lot of palms to grease if he is going to with stand the coming heave.
The coalition itself should not represent a problem - both advocate economic responsibility, are pro-business and are conservative on social issues.
The lead up to the coalition represents the biggest hurdle.0 -
Join Date:Posts: 13662
Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest
It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.
They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.
Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.
I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.0 -
johnnyskeleton wrote: »Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest
It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.
They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.
Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.
I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.
I presume the SDs and Greens are maximising their hands also - get the greatest possible speaking rights from both FF and FG, before promptly abstaining in the votes for Taoiseach once they secure written guarantees!0 -
johnnyskeleton wrote: »Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest
It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.
They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.
Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.
I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.
Even if he managed it, it could not possibly last without the support of SF. Maybe he is just desperate to be Taoiseach?0 -
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Seems any of the FG ministers interviewed say they that Kenny has the backing of the party (or key ministers anyway) but always indicate this is only secure for the short term.
Imagine as the coming week unfolds we will get a better understanding of positions and likely outcomes.0
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