Hung Dail?

TCDStudent1 · 04-03-2016 4:01pm

u2me wrote: »

Seems any of the FG ministers interviewed say they that Kenny has the backing of the party (or key ministers anyway) but always indicate this is only secure for the short term.

Imagine as the coming week unfolds we will get a better understanding of positions and likely outcomes.

After the way they messed up the last heave against kenny, I can understand why they are reluctant to risk it again.

If Martin does get the numbers for Taoiseach, then kennys time will be up.

u2me · 04-03-2016 4:41pm

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

After the way they messed up the last heave against kenny, I can understand why they are reluctant to risk it again.

If Martin does get the numbers for Taoiseach, then kennys time will be up.

They need to be sure of support and to make sure there is no spies in the camp. Kenny has plenty of experience in dealing with heaves but I think they all realize he is now a liability as they move forward.

Similarly Martin, while basking in the momentary election success is not seen by many as the ideal leader of FF and would be the subject of a heave if things had not played out as they did - safe for another while......

Fr Tod Umptious · 04-03-2016 9:07pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Interesting article about Michael Martin today in the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/miche%C3%A1l-martin-starts-bid-to-enter-government-1.2559304?utm_medium=email&utm_source=morning_digest&utm_campaign=news_digest

It claims that he is trying to strike a deal with independents for a FF led government.

They ran on a platform to get the government out. That means no deal with FG nor, I'm assuming, Labour either. And SF won't join with them.

Even if they had the support of every single independent, the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats and the Greens, they still wouldn't have enough to form a government.

I wonder is this merely posturing and they are going for a hung dail, with the option of saying in the next election that they tried their best to form a government but the numbers just weren't there.

Anything constructed by FF/SF/Indies etc will not last beyond budget time.

One of the latter two will cut a run if they think that an unpopular decision has to be made.

Unless FG get some sort of strong committment of support from FF and belive that they can insulate themselves from FF taking the high ground if things do break down then I can't see anything other than another election.

u2me · 04-03-2016 9:58pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Anything constructed by FF/SF/Indies etc will not last beyond budget time.

One of the latter two will cut a run if they think that an unpopular decision has to be made.

Unless FG get some sort of strong committment of support from FF and belive that they can insulate themselves from FF taking the high ground if things do break down then I can't see anything other than another election.

Don't think it is possible to have a minority government, How could they ensure the stability of such a government? Would you believe the promise of your arch rival not to take it down? it would be too easy to undermine, collapse and they would be left in a weak position going into the next election. It will prob take 2 months before a government is formed. Next Thursday should give us some insight with the vote on a new Taoiseach.

TCDStudent1 · 05-03-2016 12:41am

u2me wrote: »

Don't think it is possible to have a minority government, How could they ensure the stability of such a government? Would you believe the promise of your arch rival not to take it down? it would be too easy to undermine, collapse and they would be left in a weak position going into the next election. It will prob take 2 months before a government is formed. Next Thursday should give us some insight with the vote on a new Taoiseach.

The thing is though that if FF did take down a minority FG government early on, it'd reflect very badly on them. I could see that backfiring! Which I guess is what makes this so fascinating.

Fr Tod Umptious · 05-03-2016 2:05am

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

The thing is though that if FF did take down a minority FG government early on, it'd reflect very badly on them. I could see that backfiring! Which I guess is what makes this so fascinating.

It all depends on the nature of the takedown though, and who convinces the public that they have the high moral ground.

It is fascinating alright but over the past few years we have read plenty here on the virtues of having a lot of independents in parliament and how they will somehow keep the big parties in check and make them more accountable etc.

What utter BS.

Confusion is all we have right now and the Dail has not even sat yet.

TCDStudent1 · 05-03-2016 1:28pm

I like the idea of a minister for rural affairs being advocated for by the Healy-raes and fitzmaurice. At least it's something beyond their own constituency and has potential for doing good

KingBrian2 · 05-03-2016 10:37pm

I wonder who will be the Minister for Finance the most important position in Irish politics after the Taoiseach.

TCDStudent1 · 06-03-2016 1:01am

KingBrian2 wrote: »

I wonder who will be the Minister for Finance the most important position in Irish politics after the Taoiseach.

2 candidates:

Michael Noonan
Michael McGrath

RobbingBandit · 06-03-2016 1:09am

If a new election was called could anyone that missed out on being elected change their party status and run as an independent or even run for a different party or are they all as it was? Also who pays for the posters and advertisement next time round as losing twice in quick sucession would be a logistical nightmare imo.

u2me · 06-03-2016 4:15pm

TCDStudent1 wrote: »

2 candidates:

Michael Noonan
Michael McGrath

Noonan may not wish to continue as Finance minister due to poor health in recent times

u2me · 06-03-2016 4:18pm

Imagine Howlin will move for the leadership of Labour shortly

Fr Tod Umptious · 06-03-2016 6:04pm

u2me wrote: »

Imagine Howlin will move for the leadership of Labour shortly

I don't know who Labour have available to them but if one of the older members of the party like Howlin us all they have then they are in poor shape.

An Ciarraioch · 06-03-2016 7:32pm

Seems to be sensible by the SDs and most of the Independents to abstain from voting on Thursday - leave the larger parties come to them with Dáil reform proposals, and if it ultimately ends in stalemate, FF and FG will get blamed for not coming to some arrangement with each other!

KingBrian2 · 06-03-2016 11:06pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems to be sensible by the SDs and most of the Independents to abstain from voting on Thursday - leave the larger parties come to them with Dáil reform proposals, and if it ultimately ends in stalemate, FF and FG will get blamed for not coming to some arrangement with each other!

The two parties have to respect their voters. If the grassroots don't want to go into government with them then it was the electorate that threw the numbers together. Lets not forget to get legislation passed all they would have to do is toss in AAA PBP and SF to get the votes. Like with Obama going through the corridors of Congress getting Senators to vote for Obamacare working with conservative democrats people he would normally have very little in common with. FF might bring in a law but end up giving Kerry some massive pet project to keep the Healey-Reas happy.

Fr Tod Umptious · 07-03-2016 8:36pm

Interesting words from the IA today.

Mr Ross described Kenny as a "political corpse" which I would somewhat agree with.

But he went on the say that Martin brought more energy to the discussions.

So cosying up to FF now Mr Ross, are you, after years of deriding their maleficence while in power?

And what for, a few goodies for a few independents.

TCDStudent1 · 08-03-2016 12:56am

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Interesting words from the IA today.

Mr Ross described Kenny as a "political corpse" which I would somewhat agree with.

But he went on the say that Martin brought more energy to the discussions.

So cosying up to FF now Mr Ross, are you, after years of deriding their maleficence while in power?

And what for, a few goodies for a few independents.

It might be accurate but still a hugely unprofessional thing to say. Whatever happens to Kenny in the coming weeks and months, he will still be a fellow TD of Ross. And Ross should have much more respect for his fellow tds. He has really gone down in my estimation by saying that publicly.

gandalf · 08-03-2016 1:02am

TBH I respect Ross for saying this. If the remaining members of FG actually had any testicular fortitude at all they would be giving Enda the option of walking or being ousted. Personally I don't want to see him return as Taoiseach. He was and embarrassment for the last five years there is no justification of continuing to torture the Irish public with this guy any longer.

From listening to O'Cuiv tonight I have a feeling we'll be going back to the polls sooner than later because I do not see FF & FG getting into bed with each other at the moment.

Fr Tod Umptious · 08-03-2016 1:15am

gandalf wrote: »

TBH I respect Ross for saying this. If the remaining members of FG actually had any testicular fortitude at all they would be giving Enda the option of walking or being ousted. Personally I don't want to see him return as Taoiseach. He was and embarrassment for the last five years there is no justification of continuing to torture the Irish public with this guy any longer.

From listening to O'Cuiv tonight I have a feeling we'll be going back to the polls sooner than later because I do not see FF & FG getting into bed with each other at the moment.

What exactly is peoples problem with Kenny ?

As I said before he has far more integrity than two charismatic FFs guys that came before him.

He had lead a government that has done a lot of good for this country over the past few years.

If FG ate not the main party of the next government then the leader of the country will beva man who was senior in the cabinets of both Aherns and Cowan's administrations.

Administrations that ruined this country.

But hey, that's what the people want.

gandalf · 08-03-2016 11:36am

My problem with him is his performance as a leader over the last governments term. Why not address him and not tangent off into a rant about the previous tainted leaders of the government. This attempt at misdirection is almost shinner like.

My main issue with the last government is that they had an opportunity to push through radical and meaningful reform and beyond the marriage equality legislation they bottled it (and the marriage equality campaign was driven by Labour).

Fr Tod Umptious · 08-03-2016 12:19pm

gandalf wrote: »

My problem with him is his performance as a leader over the last governments term. Why not address him and not tangent off into a rant about the previous tainted leaders of the government. This attempt at misdirection is almost shinner like.

My main issue with the last government is that they had an opportunity to push through radical and meaningful reform and beyond the marriage equality legislation they bottled it (and the marriage equality campaign was driven by Labour).

Surely the first requirement of the government was to stabalise the budgetary situation.
That's has been done.
And there was an attempt to get rid of the upper house.
Add to that the major streamlining of local government.
Then there was small but visible stuff like cars, pensions etc.

My problem is why do people blame Kenny so much for all the bad things they perceived the last government did?

I think he is just an easy target, poor speaker, lacks charisma etc.

But in doing what he is supposed to do, be in charge of the government and running the country well, he has not done too badly.

gandalf · 08-03-2016 12:40pm

Let's be honest here the stabilisation was carried out under the orders of the troika. Any number of monkeys could have folowed thier instructions. The reforms you mention were nothing more than optics delivering miniscule savings.

If they had managed to scrap the Seanad then that would have been something but his lacklustre performance for that campaign botched that result as well.

Sam Russell · 08-03-2016 12:47pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Interesting words from the IA today.

Mr Ross described Kenny as a "political corpse" which I would somewhat agree with.

But he went on the say that Martin brought more energy to the discussions.

So cosying up to FF now Mr Ross, are you, after years of deriding their maleficence while in power?

And what for, a few goodies for a few independents.

Is this the same Ross who acted as a cheerleader for Seanie Fitzpatrick - saying we should have people like him leading the Government? [This was at a time just before the crash when Anglo were flying high].

I think he gives populism a bad name.

Fr Tod Umptious · 08-03-2016 1:30pm

gandalf wrote: »

Let's be honest here the stabilisation was carried out under the orders of the troika. Any number of monkeys could have folowed thier instructions. The reforms you mention were nothing more than optics delivering miniscule savings.

If they had managed to scrap the Seanad then that would have been something but his lacklustre performance for that campaign botched that result as well.

The trained monkey and the troika argument is really a weak one, but if its one you believe then you are in luck because the country has decided they want the trained monkey to have a say going forward.

The reality is that FG/Lab were is power when we were making the recovery.
The international economy and the troika were factors, but at the end of the day FG/Lab were in power.

I don't get the logic in tossing them out and leaving us with the uncertainty we now have.

Kenny will stay leader for a year of so if he forms a stable government in the 32nd Dail.
If he can't then he is gone much earlier, days or weeks maybe.

So you may not have long to find your new scapegoat.

gandalf · 08-03-2016 1:38pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The trained monkey and the troika argument is really a weak one, but if its one you believe then you are in luck because the country has decided they want the trained monkey to have a say going forward.

Ah but the troika is no longer leading them. We have already seen the return of populist FG promising the abolishment of the USC before the last election. In reality the vast majority of Irish politicians are nothing more that monkeys in suits.

The reality is that FG/Lab were is power when we were making the recovery.
The international economy and the troika were factors, but at the end of the DAT FG/Lab were in power.

I disagree the recovery happened despite the government. The FG/Labour gov squandered the best opportunity in years to enact real reform in Ireland with more of the same.

I don't get the logic in tossing them out and league with the uncertainty we now have.

They lost my vote for this election because they did not deliver the reforms that were needed and expected. On saying that my vote didn't go to FF, SF or the AAA.

gandalf · 08-03-2016 1:50pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Kenny will stay leader for a year of so if he forms a stable government in the 32nd Dail.
If he can't then he is gone much earlier, days or weeks maybe.

So you may not have long to find your new scapegoat.

Tbh I don't believe there will be a formation of a stable government from what has been returned. FG would be wise to dump Kenny for a more dynamic and at this stage less tainted leader for the next immenent election. With him still at the helm they could lose further. With a new and younger leader they have the distinct ability to pick up seats.

This isn't about scapegoating, I firmly believe if a job is beyond someone they should go. Enda is the leader of FG, he quite clearly failed to get his message through to the Irish electorate therefore he should go. He should have the sense to step down and if not the members of FG should remove him. I think it raises a lot more questions about FG's judgement if this doesn't happen.

u2me · 08-03-2016 2:50pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Interesting words from the IA today.

Mr Ross described Kenny as a "political corpse" which I would somewhat agree with.

But he went on the say that Martin brought more energy to the discussions.

So cosying up to FF now Mr Ross, are you, after years of deriding their maleficence while in power?

And what for, a few goodies for a few independents.

I think Mr Ross etc might abstain from voting for Taoiseach which would most likely result in no Taoiseach elected Thursday - leading to possible FG heave on Kenny

Fr Tod Umptious · 08-03-2016 3:36pm

u2me wrote: »

I think Mr Ross etc might abstain from voting for Taoiseach which would most likely result in no Taoiseach elected Thursday - leading to possible FG heave on Kenny

Well after no Taoiseach is elected on Thursday the Dail will adjourn until a date after Easter.

During that time there will be further discussions about the possible formation of a government.

So the next time the Dail meets if no Taoiseach is elected then a new election will be called and at this point Kenny steps down.

If Kenny is elected Taoiseach at any of the above sittings then he stays on for a year or so or until that government falls if that is earlier.

u2me · 08-03-2016 7:12pm

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well after no Taoiseach is elected on Thursday the Dail will adjourn until a date after Easter.

During that time there will be further discussions about the possible formation of a government.

So the next time the Dail meets if no Taoiseach is elected then a new election will be called and at this point Kenny steps down.

If Kenny is elected Taoiseach at any of the above sittings then he stays on for a year or so or until that government falls if that is earlier.

You would hope FG would take some decisive action if he is not elected Taoiseach on Thursday but you are probably right, he has enough support to survive till the Next sitting and beyond if a deal is achieved.

Noonan is talking up coalition and after Thursday most other FF/FG will fall in line apart from grass routes like o cuiv etc. Looks like an equal power share with rotating Taoiseach will have to be agreed. If FF have to underwrite FG this would lead to too much discontent as time progresses.

Anything less and I think FF would fare better moving for re-election.

Fr Tod Umptious · 08-03-2016 8:43pm

u2me wrote: »

You would hope FG would take some decisive action if he is not elected Taoiseach on Thursday but you are probably right, he has enough support to survive till the Next sitting and beyond if a deal is achieved.

Noonan is talking up coalition and after Thursday most other FF/FG will fall in line apart from grass routes like o cuiv etc. Looks like an equal power share with rotating Taoiseach will have to be agreed. If FF have to underwrite FG this would lead to too much discontent as time progresses.

Anything less and I think FF would fare better moving for re-election.

Well there will be no difference in Kenny position as FG leader between Thursday and the next sitting.

They will still have 50 seats and will still gave to do a deal on forming a government

Hung Dail?

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