The Sinn Fein Result Thread

VincePP

There seems to be no talk of this anywhere and the way the party cheerleaders are going on you'd think they had a brilliant election.

They expected 20% +
They expected 27-30 seats.

They got just over 13%
Looks like they'll get 21 seats.

But they seem to be acting as if they have triumphed???

Are their cheerleaders brainwashed to such a level that they can't see how badly they performed?

nice_guy80

Well, Gerry costs them votes nationally and should be shown the door

I can see Pearse Doherty being the next leader there

vicwatson

Have they not increased their seats by a minimum of 7, good result I think

stefanovich

nice_guy80 wrote:

I can see Pearse Doherty being the next leader there

Not sure the strong northern Ireland accent does him any favours. Someone with a more neutral accent would be more appealing to southern voters.

johnnyskeleton

SF will usualy underperform. A lot of their support comes from people who dont, in the heel of the hunt, vote for them or in some cases even vote at all.

In any event, regardless of their own numbers, they are in a great position for the new dail. FF/FG is looking to be a dead cert (Martin will spin it that they are equal partners so he isnt going back on his pre election assertion).

They are likely to be the main opposition party wth the speaking and status that comes with that. Meaning the only way is up in the next election.

VincePP

vicwatson wrote: »

Have they not increased their seats by a minimum of 7, good result I think

Considering they expected to more than double. I'd say bad results.

Similarly if FF had only gone to 33/34, it would be 14 more seats but a very bad result.


FG look to be 52/53 - if they got 60 it would have been considered a victory, instead people are saying they collapsed.

So SF getting 30% less than expected is probably the worst result of the election barring the labour results.

Eugene Norman

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

SF will usualy underperform. Anlot of their vote comes from people who dont, in the heel of the hunt, vote for them or in some cases even vote at all.

In any event, regardless of their own numbers, they are in a great position for the new dail. FF/FG is looking to be a dead cert (Martin will spin it that they are equal partners so he isnt going back on his pre election assertion).

They are likely to be the main opposition party wth the speaking and status that comes with that. Meaning the only way is up in the next election.

FF/FG isn't going to happen.

stefanovich

Eugene Norman wrote:

FF/FG isn't going to happen.

No FF/FG politicians discounting it today. General evasive response is let's wait for all the results to come in.

Bonniedog

If SF can only go up by 3.8% - down on their local and European results - during a perfect storm for a left opposition party then that is as good as it will ever get for them.

Pathetic now to listen to their "ideologues" creaming themselves over FF/FG implementing "five more years of austerity" as they hope that misery will force people to vote for them.

Well, if people want to see what real misery is like, perhaps they ought to visit the kip that is West Belfast that has been run by the shinners for 30 years. Haven't created a single job in all that time other than "community workers" paid out of the peace dividend bribe to old provies.

No thanks mo chara!

johnnyskeleton

Eugene Norman wrote: »

FF/FG isn't going to happen.

If it shakes down with both parties in the low 40s, there is no other option. On their own, either party would need 30-40 independents, smaller parties or SF support. A grand coalition of everyone but FF/FG wont work either, they wont have enough seats.

willowthewisp

vicwatson wrote: »

Have they not increased their seats by a minimum of 7, good result I think

That's the spin.

johnnyskeleton

Bonniedog wrote: »

Pathetic now to listen to their "ideologues" creaming themselves over FF/FG implementing "five more years of austerity" as they hope that misery will force people to vote for them

A big gamble, while there is a global recession on the cards, Im not sure Ireland is heading for another round of austerity.

Peregrine

I've been saying this since yesterday morning and have been met with nothing but puzzled faces. This is a disappointing result for SF given the opportunity that was there for them. They'll get fewer than 25 seats and it's a worse result than the local and European elections.

Edit: I must add that I wouldn't call it a collapse by any stretch of the imagination.

Lockstep

I'd say it's a pretty disappointing result for SF: they were polling much higher than this and for them to increase their vote by just 3% at a time of backlash against the government is nowhere near the swing they were hoping for.

Balmed Out

Compare general elections with general elections. It was a good day for sf just not as good as they might have hopped.
Interesting to see will they cosy up to ff or do they prefer not to see power till all the difficult decisions made.

Eugene Norman

Eugene Norman wrote: »

FF/FG isn't going to happen.

Can't see it happening either for historic reasons and because it would allow SF to play the main opposition role.

More likely that FF will support a FG gov for a set period, say two years, provided that they agree to implement certain elements of a joint programme.

This would allow FF a decent chance to be the larger party next time...while still being the main opposition party. Although I doubt this, it might even result in FF and FG working closer together...

This election does mark the end of the 'all things to all men' party. FG and FF have no place looking for the left of centre vote anymore.

tmh106

I think the title of your topic displays a certain bias. They certainly did not have the result that some of the earlier polls suggested - but no great surprise there - SF have always failed to fully translate poll rating to votes. But, in my estimation, they have had a good election - they will significantly increase the number of seats they hold and their share of the vote. They have certainly not, by by any fair unbiased analysis, "collapsed". If you view the SF result as a "collapse" I wonder what noun you would use to describe the FG and Labour results. By comparison I think FF and Independents have both had great elections, FG a very poor election and Labour a disaster.

ThisRegard

vicwatson wrote: »

Have they not increased their seats by a minimum of 7, good result I think

But not when you take into account the seats lost by FG and Labour, they would have thought they would hoover up most of those.

Bonniedog

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

A big gamble, while there is a global recession on the cards, Im not sure Ireland is heading for another round of austerity.

Hopefully not.

My point is that SF and other lefties are almost wishing for it because they think it will create conditions that will lead to them taking power.

Which is a pretty pathetic attitude from people claiming to represent the "werkers".

biko

VincePP wrote: »

They expected 20% +
They expected 27-30 seats.

Source?

Pink Fairy

biko wrote: »

Source?

The latest constituency level analysis put it at this:

Fianna Fail 26, Fine Gael 64, Sinn Fein 29, Labour Party 10, Independents and Others 29

jimmycrackcorm

SF ran a disastrous campaign in Donegal. Over confident that they could get three out of five seats, it's now looking likely that they will lose an existing one and even golden boy Pearse didn't top the poll.

VincePP

biko wrote: »

Source?

Have you missed the last 4 weeks?

Every poll, every uttering, every pundit and every SF cheerleader was confident of 25+ seats with some mentioning the magic 30 number.

Under 14% and circa 20 seats is as bad as the heavier than expected collapse in labour vote.

Red Kev

vicwatson wrote: »

Have they not increased their seats by a minimum of 7, good result I think

Up until last summer they were regularly at 20-25% in the polls. They used these figures to justify a lot of their policies and attacks on other parties, so yes, it's a collapse. Not a Labour style collapse, but a collapse nonetheless.

A lot of it is attributable to Adams directly. I'm saying this as a floating voter with a left wing bias. I wouldn't touch them so long as he and Mary Lou (I remember her as a FFer) are at the helm.

stefanovich wrote: »

Not sure the strong northern Ireland accent does him any favours. Someone with a more neutral accent would be more appealing to southern voters.

Didn't do Martin McGuinness any harm in the Presidentials. No, it's Adams' refusal to admit his past, so when the dogs in the street know he's lying, it's not going to do his party any favours.

stefanovich wrote: »

No FF/FG politicians discounting it today. General evasive response is let's wait for all the results to come in.

Some FG ones are mentioning it. Frank Feighan in Roscommon (outgoing TD) has said it would be the best thing.


Paul Murphy now has his sights on SF, looks like he will permanently attack them for the time of the next Dail. That should massage his ego nicely.


http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0228/771304-live-election-2016-national-updates/ Written at 10:53

Paul Murphy of the Anti-Austerity Alliance / People Before Profit has said he is not convinced that the leadership of Sinn Féin is committed to building the kind of 'left' that learns from the lessons of the Labour Party and that doesn't prop up right wing parties.

Speaking on RTÉ Radio 1, Mr Murphy said he also doesn't accept the idea that Sinn Féin is guaranteed to be leader of the 'anti-austerity bloc' if they enter opposition.

biko

VincePP wrote: »

Have you missed the last 4 weeks?

Every poll, every uttering, every pundit and every SF cheerleader was confident of 25+ seats with some mentioning the magic 30 number.

Under 14% and circa 20 seats is as bad as the heavier than expected collapse in labour vote.

So you shouldn't have problem finding a source then?

FA Hayek

I have mentioned this before. Obviously the big news item at the moment is the demise of Labour and the bad poll of FG and of course the resurrection of FF. It will take a few days for the bad result of Sinn Fein to be analyst and brought into the mainstream.

FA Hayek

biko wrote: »

So you shouldn't have problem finding a source then?

Every poll result for the past 5 years are on wiki, have a google as I cannot post a link.


In February 2015 they were polled at 26% in a Millward Brown poll as one example.
It's a hard cold fact that Sinn Fein performed way below those polls and expected seats.

BoJack Horseman

FA Hayek wrote: »

It will take a few days for the bad result of Sinn Fein to be analyst and brought into the mainstream.

Are the reasons not obvious?

- The reality of across-the-board tax rises starting to set in with much of the public.
- An effective (if modest) pay cut for a large swathe of the public service.
- A leader & deputy leader having evidently a rather scant relationship with the policy platform presumably someone else wrote for them.

Having said that, their result is still an improvement on 2011.
But it is a dis-improvement on 2014, so perhaps SF have reached a high water mark?

BoJack Horseman

biko wrote: »

Source?

The internet...



Slightly hard to tell at this resolution, but you can see that between summer 2014 & spring 2015 there were a handful of polls that put SF above 25% (the darker green circles)

And a many others putting them clear of 20%.

A Dub in Glasgo

Opinion polls are not a robust guide, election to election comparisons are more robust

BoJack Horseman

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Opinion polls are not a robust guide, election to election comparisons are more robust

If 'robustness' is what gets your motor running....

2011: 9.9% FPV
2014: 15.2% FPV
2016: 13.8% FPV

Next up, 2019 local elections....
But TBH, I think we can see that there is a ceiling.

tipptom

This is hilarious,another anti SF fapp fest on Boards but this time its the deflection from the grief of the collapse of the government.


Some shill on here saying SF collapse is MAYBE not as bad as Labour but its a collapse.
Another one saying that they will only hit 21 seats and they were expecting twice that,that was a beauty but sure whatever makey uppey stuff makes you happy.


You Blueshirts need to get back to school if you think a gov party that has lost probably 30 seats out of 37 compared to a party who will probably gain 7 seats and is ready to be the main opposition party in this country and trying to compare them is really brilliant reading.


Sf can be the main opposition party in this Dail and have always said their target with Gerry Adams gone is the next GE as the main party and maybe have FG or FF as a makeweight if FG/FF get enough votes to come in as a junior party or maybe the SDs if not.


Carry on it makes great fun but cringeworthy reading and im sure you will move out of the denial stage soon and on to the next stage

Bonniedog

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Opinion polls are not a robust guide, election to election comparisons are more robust

On election to election comparison, SF are down on their local election results and European results of 2014. Significantly down in the case of the Euros by over 5%. That is actually a good guide as everyone in every constituency had SF candidate.

Their vote yesterday is almost the same as the Presidential vote in 2013 which they were very disappointed over, so pretending to be happy about the same outcome now is just window dressing.

It will also be interesting to see what reaction is if, unlikely but not impossible - that there is approach to them to join some governmental formation with FF.

They would bite their hands off. And you won't hear a peep out of their ideologues either you can be sure because they will be told to shut the fk up, just as republicans in SF who objected to Stormont and accepting British rule were.

borrisboy

Sinn Fein are winning seats where they never had them before . They are the party on the rise !

A Dub in Glasgo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

If 'robustness' is what gets your motor running....

2011: 9.9% FPV
2014: 15.2% FPV
2016: 13.8% FPV

Next up, 2019 local elections....
But TBH, I think we can see that there is a ceiling.

Robustness would be comparing the same elections ie GE to GE, LE to LE & EE to EE. There is a ceiling for every party although the lower ceiling seems to be breaking for others

Superhorse

Hilarious to hear the spin merchants discount them. As much as I dislike them they are a rising force in Irish politics. When they eventually drop Gerry they will be a major player. We had better get used to it because they are going nowhere.

BoJack Horseman

tipptom wrote: »

You Blueshirts need to get back to school

I should have added the whole abuse mantra to the list of reasons for a disappointing turnout!

BoJack Horseman

Bonniedog wrote: »

It will also be interesting to see what reaction is if, unlikely but not impossible - that there is approach to them to join some governmental formation with FF.

I heard the SF director of elections seem quite open to the idea.

He couched it in double speak like "we would not be a mud-guard", but he was open on the principle that SF would only coalesce if it were a "real partner" in a coalition...

TBH, there is plenty that FF & SF can find common ground on..

So, depending on how the numbers finish, I expect there to be at least a serious conversation about former conversation.

Disgruntled Badger

I'm no fan of SF, :-o now there's an understatement, but credit where credit is due. They will be third biggest party in the Dail, they've hoovered up labour, a lot of FF support, and young new voters, topping the pole is no joke. Unless they go into Government the future is bright for them.

endacl

Disgruntled Badger wrote: »

I'm no fan of SF, :-o now there's an understatement, but credit where credit is due. They will be third biggest party in the Dail, they've hoovered up labour, a lot of FF support, and young new voters, topping the pole is no joke. Unless they go into Government the future is bright for them.

johnnyskeleton

VincePP wrote: »

Under 14% and circa 20 seats is as bad as the heavier than expected collapse in labour vote.

Im sorry but Lab have dropped from 37 seats to maybe 9 or 10. So a 70% drop in their seats. *some* people were predicting as low as 5 so the spin is they did better than expected.

Meanwhile, SF go from 14 to maybe 20 seats, and increase of c. 35%, but because *some* people predicted them to get 25+ seats they did worse than expected.

I'm not a big fan of SF by any means, but I must protest at the abuse of the English language that says Sinn Fein has collapsed to the same extent that Labour have.

Peregrine

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I heard the SF director of elections seem quite open to the idea.

He couched it in double speak like "we would not be a mud-guard", but he was open on the principle that SF would be a "real partner" in a coalition...

TBH, there is plenty that FF & SF can find common ground on..

So, depending on how the numbers finish, I expect there to be at least a serious conversation about former conversation.

I don't think that either party truly wants that but the numbers won't add up either, in my opinion.

When the curtain falls on this count, I don't believe that they will have the numbers and would need around 10 seats from other parties and/or Independents to bolster it. I think we can safely rule out Labour, Social Democrats, Green Party and AAA/PBP which only leaves independents. It's highly unlikely.

BoJack Horseman

Peregrine wrote: »

I think we can safely rule out Labour, Social Democrats, Green Party and AAA/PBP which only leaves independents. It's highly unlikely.

Why?

- The SD's manifesto is almost a carbon copy of SF's.... they agree on all but everything, the SD's just lack the republican baggage, so they are an easy get.

- There are a tonne of SF/FF campaign that would keep the AAA loyal
..No IW
..No LPT
..50,000 social houses.
..expanding free healthcare
..more welfare....
..Throw in a junior ministry & they will be purring.

- Labour... I don't know... they may retreat to lick their wounds.

- Independent Alliance.... see above for the AAA, not a major task

- Greens.... see above & maybe some sort of increased taxation on carbon again.

But we'll see when its all done... but every faction has a price & we should remember that on the left, there is a lot more that unites than divides.

johnnyskeleton

tipptom wrote: »

Some shill on here saying SF collapse is MAYBE not as bad as Labour but its a collapse.

Mod note:

Dont accuse other posters of shilling. Use the report post function. The rest of your post is quite low standards to be honest, so please read the charter (again) before posting again.

ThisRegard

Superhorse wrote: »

Hilarious to hear the spin merchants discount them. As much as I dislike them they are a rising force in Irish politics. When they eventually drop Gerry they will be a major player. We had better get used to it because they are going nowhere.

It's plainly obvious that some people just don't like to see SF being cruricsed, even when slapped right in the face with stats.

bill66

The word collapse to me, would mean that SF are doing worse now than in the past, the stats do not support this view:

SF share of votes at general elections:

1982 1%
1987 1.9%
1989 1.2%
1992 1.6%
1997 2.5%
2002 6.5%
2007 6.9%
2011 9.9%
2015 MORE

looks to me, and I am no mathematical genius, that support for SF is increasing especially since the Good Friday Agreement.

Inquitus

bill66 wrote: »

looks to me, and I am no mathematical genius, that support for SF is increasing especially since the Good Friday Agreement.

I think the point is SF support is at or close to it's ceiling now, unless they move to the center at some point, this election is just about a perfect storm for SF with the chance to hoover up disenchanted Lab votes, and they have underperformed.

tipptom

bill66 wrote: »

The word collapse to me, would mean that SF are doing worse now than in the past, the stats do not support this view:

SF share of votes at general elections:

1982 1%
1987 1.9%
1989 1.2%
1992 1.6%
1997 2.5%
2002 6.5%
2007 6.9%
2011 9.9%
2015 MORE

looks to me, and I am no mathematical genius, that support for SF is increasing especially since the Good Friday Agreement.

Away with your stats,they have collapsed nearly as bad as Labour according to the fantasists around here.

dloob

I think SF will be very disappointed with this performance, but will put a brave face on it.
Gerry would want to watch his back after this.

tipptom

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the point is SF support is at or close to it's ceiling now, unless they move to the center at some point, this election is just about a perfect storm for SF with the chance to hoover up disenchanted Lab votes, and they have underperformed.

So it hasn't collapsed now but it has reached a ceiling and you are basing this on..


With the plummeting downward trend for the establishment party's and when SF have jettisoned GAs they will be the main party after the next GE particularly when FF/FG gorge on each other in their coming display of corruption,cronyism and incompetence.

nice_guy80

dloob wrote: »

I think SF will be very disappointed with this performance, but will put a brave face on it.
Gerry would want to watch his back after this.

or his knees