The Sinn Fein Result Thread

xz

Sleepy wrote:

My analysis that a large amount of the support for Sinn Fein is from poorly educated ne'er do wells is more shocking than their history of murdering innocents, protection of paedophiles and rapists, support for Garda killers and calls to remove one of the best weapons our justice system has in it's fight against organised crime?

And it's attitudes like this that proves there's a class system in this country, don't forget, the 2 major parties were born out of violence also.

Sleepy

b1964 wrote: »

So what would you say/call the voters who voted for the corrupt Michael Lowry?? are these lacking education to see through his propaganda?

They're either morons or as crooked as the man they've elected imo.

xz wrote: »

And it's attitudes like this that proves there's a class system in this country, don't forget, the 2 major parties were born out of violence also.

Well, there's certainly two classes at the very least: the law-abiding and the criminal.

Godge

I think the SF performance needs to be put into perspective.

The turnout at the Euro elections is always lower than the general elections, so all parties increase the absolute number of voters between the europeans and the general election.

So, for example, Labour gained about 50,000 voters from the European elections, despite the disaster of the general election. Fine Gael had the greatest improvement, gaining 175,000 voters more in the general election than in the Euros. AAA/PBP similarly gained 50,000 and FF 150,000.

Essentially, they all keep what they had at the euros and gain a share of the extra voters that come out for the general election.

SF's performance was completely different to all other parties. They lost 30,000 votes between the euros and the general election. What this means is that not only did they not gain any share of the extra vote that comes out for the general election but that they lost a siginificant number (10%) of those who voted for them in the Euros.

Now it is not a collapse, anything but. However, I am on record at the time of saying that SF had peaked and that it would be downhill from that peak. That is what is clearly happening. How far down do they go? I hope that they have now been seen clearly for what they are and that there is a long way down for them, but let's sit back and watch. They are doing themselves no favours by refusing to consider government. Within the electorate, there is probably 10% at most who favour perpetual protest. Most of these vote for AAA/PBP and other fringes. If SF refuses to go into government, those are the waters it is fishing in and there could well be a good bit more on the downslope.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, but I would say that.

xz

Sleepy wrote:

Well, there's certainly two classes at the very least: the law-abiding and the criminal.

But you tarred the electorate of Sinn Fein as poorly educated ne'er do wells, did you not, that's an outrageous assumption to make.

Dyr

VincePP wrote: »

Considering they expected to more than double. I'd say bad results.

Sorry matey turned out we don't need a new Godge after all, I know he disappeared for a while after the results started coming in but he seems to be back on an even keel now

Link to SF stating that they expected to double their seats or just accept that your argument is nonsense

Good chap.

johnnyskeleton

My take on it is that the local council/european elections have historically shown a drop in support for the government, leading some to interpret it as being a reflection of general disapproval.

But maybe the answer is much simpler - maybe in European Elections the people want SF or other Eurosceptic parties elected to the Parliament. In the local elections, maybe the SF candidates have a visible presence on the ground and people want them in the Council.

So I don't think you can compare any party's performance in the General Election and the Local/European Elections on a like for like basis. I think that underestimates the electorate and assumes that they neither know nor understand what exactly they are voting for.

Godge

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

My take on it is that the local council/european elections have historically shown a drop in support for the government, leading some to interpret it as being a reflection of general disapproval.

But maybe the answer is much simpler - maybe in European Elections the people want SF or other Eurosceptic parties elected to the Parliament. In the local elections, maybe the SF candidates have a visible presence on the ground and people want them in the Council.

So I don't think you can compare any party's performance in the General Election and the Local/European Elections on a like for like basis. I think that underestimates the electorate and assumes that they neither know nor understand what exactly they are voting for.

That is not the type of comparison I am doing however. Notwithstanding all of that, the lower turnout in the Euro elections should ensure that all parties increase their number of voters by the next general election. And that holds true in the most recent case except for SF. I mean, look at the Labour performance. In the midst of the greatest collapse in their seats, they still managed to add 50,000 voters on to their Euro election performance.

At a minimum, those statistics indicate that SF in losing 30,000 votes ran the worst election campaign, failing to add to their Euro performance.

Leaving FG and Labour out of it, FF added 150,000 votes from the Euro elections, SF lost 30,000 votes.

Sleepy

xz wrote: »

But you tarred the electorate of Sinn Fein as poorly educated ne'er do wells, did you not, that's an outrageous assumption to make.

It's what I see. Well educated, civic minded people see through the propaganda and magical money-tree "policies" while the disaffected, poorly educated fools who believe the country owes them a living and that unskilled labour gangs should be paid as well as doctors lap them up.

fly_agaric

I think the SF performance is hardly a shocker.

They've had all the main political parties going hell for leather at them for months (because GE was this year), entire media of the state monstering them every day and making sure people remember all the evil things the IRA did.
I think the Slab Murphy verdict was on the day of the GE and got massive coverage from all media...Week or two before that, potential SF voters were helpfully told exactly what they are by the Late Late show! Such media pressure & its ability to influence is less than it used to be, but not irrelevant I think.

To be honest it is amazing how SFs numbers hold up when everyone who votes for them is repeatedly told they are terrorist sympathisers and scumbags at worst, irresponsible subversives who threaten the stability of the state at best. Would tend to make you twice in the ballot box!

xz

Sleepy wrote:

It's what I see. Well educated, civic minded people see through the propaganda and magical money-tree "policies" while the disaffected, poorly educated fools who believe the country owes them a living and that unskilled labour gangs should be paid as well as doctors lap them up.

Wow.... I'd love to be in your Ivory tower

Sleepy

I expect no better response from a Sinn Fein supporter tbh. When someone disagrees with you: insult them. :rolleyes:

A Dub in Glasgo

Sleepy wrote: »

I expect no better response from a Sinn Fein supporter tbh. When someone disagrees with you: insult them. :rolleyes:

and you would know all about insults

b1964

Sleepy wrote: »

It's what I see. Well educated, civic minded people see through the propaganda and magical money-tree "policies" while the disaffected, poorly educated fools who believe the country owes them a living and that unskilled labour gangs should be paid as well as doctors lap them up.

That's some attitude you have,i think its you who is the poorly educated fool.

xz

Sleepy wrote:

I expect no better response from a Sinn Fein supporter tbh. When someone disagrees with you: insult them.

I'm not a Sinn Fein supporter, so there you go, with your assumptions again

b1964

Sleepy wrote: »

I expect no better response from a Sinn Fein supporter tbh. When someone disagrees with you: insult them. :rolleyes:

You are having a laugh?,what exactly do you call slandering people uneducated fools?

Sleepy

Again, exactly the standard of debate I'd expect: if you disagree with my analysis of the Sinn Fein electorate, you could try to prove it wrong.

Your failure to even attempt to do so tells me that you either don't want to accept it's accuracy (i.e. that you've been brainwashed by propoganda) or that you recognise the truth but don't want to be seen to admit it lest the mask might slip.

K-9

Sleepy wrote: »

I expect no better response from a Sinn Fein supporter tbh. When someone disagrees with you: insult them. :rolleyes:

Mod:

That's what happens when you call most SF supporter's poorly educated n'er do wells. Stop posting to get a react thank you.

Everybody else, stop giving that reaction.

johnnyskeleton

fly_agaric wrote: »

entire media of the state monstering them every day and making sure people remember all the evil things the IRA did.

That's interesting, because other people talk about how RTE lionised SF/AAA. Maybe the media just report the news as it happens and people see biases where there are no biases.

I think the Slab Murphy verdict was on the day of the GE and got massive coverage from all media...Week or two before that, potential SF voters were helpfully told exactly what they are by the Late Late show! Such media pressure & its ability to influence is less than it used to be, but not irrelevant I think.

Or maybe the sentence came up when it did and the media reported on it accordingly. If they didn't report on the sentence or the sentence was adjourned until after the election, that would have been biased.

But Slab Murphy simply wouldn't have had a connection to the election if Gerry Adams had disowned him instead of calling him a good republican. If you recall, Sen. Norris had a similar difficulty with the letter he wrote in support of the sex offender in Israel.

To be honest it is amazing how SFs numbers hold up when everyone who votes for them is repeatedly told they are terrorist sympathisers and scumbags at worst, irresponsible subversives who threaten the stability of the state at best. Would tend to make you twice in the ballot box!

Again, would it be better to ignore their past? Should the same apply to the other parties and we forget FF's actions leading to the bank guarantee etc? It seems that we have, since Labour, being the only party that voted against the bank guarantee, took a severe beating in the election.

Godge

b1964 wrote: »

You are having a laugh?,what exactly do you call slandering people uneducated fools?

The opinion poll analyses done showed that SF attracted higher than average support from younger, poorer-educated voters.

It would be inaccurate to say that SF supporters are all young, naive and poorly-educated. However, it would be true to say that if you are young and poorly-educated you are more likely to support SF than the average voter.

johnnyskeleton

Mod Note:

Thread title changed to a more neutral name. But any further backseat moderation will result in a ban.

fly_agaric

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

That's interesting, because other people talk about how RTE lionised SF/AAA. Maybe the media just report the news as it happens and people see biases where there are no biases.

RTE are quite balanced [IMO] other than a caginess about criticism of govt., whoever is in power - probably because the govt. holds their purse strings.
That late late show thing during the election was an oddity (I thought).
As for other Irish media...surely you are not going to argue that they are somehow balanced on SF.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Or maybe the sentence came up when it did and the media reported on it accordingly. If they didn't report on the sentence or the sentence was adjourned until after the election, that would have been biased.

I'm not implying bias in when sentence came up, just pointing out it was hardly a good thing for SF on election day which would get them any transfers...
I presume the massive discussion of the fate of that court during the election (haven't heard anything about it for years?) was a handy "stick" issue to whack SF.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

But Slab Murphy simply wouldn't have had a connection to the election if Gerry Adams had disowned him instead of calling him a good republican. If you recall, Sen. Norris had a similar difficulty with the letter he wrote in support of the sex offender in Israel.

It does not matter what Adams does really. Presume he'd be just called a liar or a hypocrite if he was to start putting the boot into likes of Slab Murphy now. Others said here it would help the party if he left leadership of SF to newer generation. I'm not so sure. Even if he handed over the reins of SF, I'm sure origins of the party and its past, and all the things the IRA did would continue to be brought up. It's far too effective an attack to let go of while events remain in living memory.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Again, would it be better to ignore their past? Should the same apply to the other parties and we forget FF's actions leading to the bank guarantee etc?

There's a gap somewhere in there between everyone forgetting the past/pretending it never happened and demonising SF and its voters.
As regards the famous bank guarantee (what?), seems its ancient history now.
Just played about with google and got 170 hits for "Fianna Fail" "Bank Guarantee" Election for past month....and 5180 hits for "Sinn Fein" "Special Criminal Court" and Election for same period.

b1964

Godge wrote: »

The opinion poll analyses done showed that SF attracted higher than average support from younger, poorer-educated voters.

It would be inaccurate to say that SF supporters are all young, naive and poorly-educated. However, it would be true to say that if you are young and poorly-educated you are more likely to support SF than the average voter.

So in your opinion what are Michael Lowry supporters? young poorly educated or just plain thick?

seamus

People with an inferiority complex. Lowry has developed a cult of personality around himself that taps into a strong anti-Dublin and anti-establishment bias in the same way that the Healy-Rae family has. They do a lot of work at the local level, rolling up their sleeves and claiming to be doing the work that "them smart alecs up in Dublin" refuse to do because they're biased against Tipperary/Kerry.

In the same way that Trump convinces people that their woes are down to immigration, Lowry and the Healy-Raes will declare that it's Dublin's fault that their incomes are down or their roads are crap. Much easier to point at an ethereal enemy than actually fix problems.

Listen to political programs and anything that's remotely critical of Lowry gets a rake of hate texts and mails accusing the program of an anti-rural agenda and demanding they leave poor Michael Lowry alone and instead focus on the "big fish".

eire4

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Its pretty appalling for all parties concerned that they want to be elected to opposition but not to form a coalition majoirty and so a government.

The numbers favour FF and FG so my primary criticism would be of them if they refuse to form a government. However, I dont think its a legitimate position for SF to take that they will only ever enter government as the majority party. If the people of Ireland vote the numbers for any party in coalition, they should at least consider it and have plausible reasons for not doing so beyond "we dont want to risk losing our seats".

To my mind it would make absolutely no sense for a left wing party to enter into a coaltion with a right wing party especially as the smaller partner. All you have to do is look at what happened to Labour to see how bad an idea that is.

Charles Babbage

eire4 wrote: »

To my mind it would make absolutely no sense for a left wing party to enter into a coaltion with a right wing party especially as the smaller partner. All you have to do is look at what happened to Labour to see how bad an idea that is.

No sense at all, unless that is they wanted to actually do something about homelessness, the health services etc., instead of whining about it.

piuswal

Given the present circumstances, and hopefully the lesson learned by FG, is there not an opportunity for Left wing leaning groups, particularly SF, to say "we will support a minority government, provided you agree to, a, b, c, etc. To at least ask the question. If agreement is not forthcoming, fair enough but to do nothing, to me, is shirking responsibility.

josephryan1989

What are SF anyway when you subtract Adams and the Provo wing? They are simply a conservative Republican party - a bit greener than FF and a bit redder than Labour. Nobody with a brain voted for SF because they wanted a United Ireland or a revival of the Gaelic language. If SF end up in government in the south as either a minority party or the majority party they are going to take the same beating at the polls as any other party.

josephryan1989

eire4 wrote: »

To my mind it would make absolutely no sense for a left wing party to enter into a coaltion with a right wing party especially as the smaller partner. All you have to do is look at what happened to Labour to see how bad an idea that is.

If they don't want power what are they doing in the Dail? Next time around some new party that does want to roll up their sleeves and get something done might take their support from them. Votes are political currency and it devalues if it is unspent. SF will always be a protest party unless it get a into government. If it has no desire to be in power it might as well be a group of kids playing with a tea set.

A Dub in Glasgo

SF final seat tally is 23

Shermanator

Sinn Fein are exactly where they wanted to by. They would probably like to have gotten a few more seats but at the end of the day it was a great result for them. They are not ready to be in government and they know this. They want to be in opposition because they know they don't have to back up any of their election promises. They knew this going into the election and they know it going into the next election

stooge

It was said all along that FG would rather capitulate to FF than allow SF to rise. The endless media attacks against SF in the run up to (and actually during the election) were actually effective when you look at the outcome in terms of seats and votes. So you could say that RTE et al have played a blinder.

Realistically though, given how badly FF and FG have governed over the past 15 years you would have thought that they would get less than 50% of seats (not 60% as the final totals show). It more of less shows that SF gained from labour while FF gained from FG and that the majority of the electorate (60%) will not vote away from the usual FF/FG parties.

Over time though I believe with more diversity this percentage of 'die hard FG/FF' will reduce to a point were SF become a realistic alternative. And I think that is the long term aim and strategy set out, and the reason why I think they will not enter a coalition.

eire4

josephryan1989 wrote: »

If they don't want power what are they doing in the Dail? Next time around some new party that does want to roll up their sleeves and get something done might take their support from them. Votes are political currency and it devalues if it is unspent. SF will always be a protest party unless it get a into government. If it has no desire to be in power it might as well be a group of kids playing with a tea set.

Well you say they don't want to be in power. However that doesn't make it so. I can understand why a party slowly building a base in the Dail and throughout the 26 counties wants to continue to do that rather then get in bed with a right wing party and catch their fleas so to speak like Labour has done. Makes sense for them to think more long term.

eire4

Charles Babbage wrote: »

No sense at all, unless that is they wanted to actually do something about homelessness, the health services etc., instead of whining about it.

I am sure they do want to imrpove the situation with regard to things like homelessness and health services. Who in their right mind would not want to. But I can see that from their perspective it makes sense to continue to try and build their base and create a real viable long term left wing alternative in Irish politcs which sadly Labour have failed to do and which our political landscape can only benefit from in terms of having a much more real and robust left v right debate and alternatives available to the public to support.

josephryan1989

eire4 wrote: »

Well you say they don't want to be in power. However that doesn't make it so. I can understand why a party slowly building a base in the Dail and throughout the 26 counties wants to continue to do that rather then get in bed with a right wing party and catch their fleas so to speak like Labour has done. Makes sense for them to think more long term.

Slowly building a base for what? The past 30 odd years we have had coalition governments because that is the simple arithmetic of the Dail. The only way SF is going to avoid catching fleas is if they get an overall majority which would mean abandoning the legacy of the Troubles and scrubbing away any connection with armed struggle before becoming a mainstream catch all party. If they wait for the perfect conditions they might as well be waiting for Godot.

johnnyskeleton

eire4 wrote: »

To my mind it would make absolutely no sense for a left wing party to enter into a coaltion with a right wing party especially as the smaller partner. All you have to do is look at what happened to Labour to see how bad an idea that is.

The problem is that every left party is refusing to join with each other because the other party is not left enough.

FF claim to be a left of centre republican party. Some people may not perceive them as such and they may be correct. However, if they are presenting themselves as left wing, surely then they will be able to at least enter talks with SF, AAA etc and try to agree a programme for government.

tipptom

josephryan1989 wrote: »

Slowly building a base for what? The past 30 odd years we have had coalition governments because that is the simple arithmetic of the Dail. The only way SF is going to avoid catching fleas is if they get an overall majority which would mean abandoning the legacy of the Troubles and scrubbing away any connection with armed struggle before becoming a mainstream catch all party. If they wait for the perfect conditions they might as well be waiting for Godot.

They have always said that the next election will be their time as a party to have the most seats in the Dail and while there is not a hope of them having an overall majority they will be the main policy driver with FF or FG as a mudguard.

K-9

They'd need to double their vote to get the required seats for that. The left not increasing seats this time and their total vote share going down would suggest a radical change like that is unlikely.

Godge

tipptom wrote: »

They have always said that the next election will be their time as a party to have the most seats in the Dail and while there is not a hope of them having an overall majority they will be the main policy driver with FF or FG as a mudguard.

Not a chance of that.

FF/FG had 96 seats after 2011 election, they have 94 seats after the 2016 election. SF just gained left-wing seats from Labour, they didn't make any inroads into the FF/FG seat tally.

What was worse was that they failed to wipe Labour out. There will be quite a contrast between the constructive intelligent opposition provided by Labour and the rabble-rousing unintellectual obstructionism of SF and AAA.

With their vote down from the European elections, it remains to be seen whether they will get any increase.

Mr.Micro

Godge wrote: »

Not a chance of that.

FF/FG had 96 seats after 2011 election, they have 94 seats after the 2016 election. SF just gained left-wing seats from Labour, they didn't make any inroads into the FF/FG seat tally.

What was worse was that they failed to wipe Labour out. There will be quite a contrast between the constructive intelligent opposition provided by Labour and the rabble-rousing unintellectual obstructionism of SF and AAA.

With their vote down from the European elections, it remains to be seen whether they will get any increase.

They will have to change tack and ditch Adams. The trouble then is they might become too like any other party?

Jayop

FFG go into government for the first time ever then you'll have a proper left which will be able to grow. Labour never allowed that to happen because they were tripping over themselves to get some ministerial pensions lined up every time the opportunity arose. Labour did no favours to the left by propping up RW governments time after time. A full on LW opposition will grow by the next election.

josephryan1989

tipptom wrote: »

They have always said that the next election will be their time as a party to have the most seats in the Dail and while there is not a hope of them having an overall majority they will be the main policy driver with FF or FG as a mudguard.

And what makes you think they still won't catch fleas? Tides come in and out and governments come and go and parties will be clobbered if they don't deliver. That's just a fact of life in politics. Do SF think they are special or something?

feargale

Jayop wrote: »

FFG go into government for the first time ever then you'll have a proper left which will be able to grow. Labour never allowed that to happen because they were tripping over themselves to get some ministerial pensions lined up every time the opportunity arose. Labour did no favours to the left by propping up RW governments time after time. A full on LW opposition will grow by the next election.

I wouldn't have anything against a growth of the left or a realignment of Irish politics on a left-right basis ( it's almost inevitable given the mismanagement of the country and the leeway given to pirates,) but it's not good for the country to have as standard-bearers of the left people of questionable democratic credentials, apologists for some of the worst atrocities that Ireland endured in the 20th century, for people who flouted the popular will when it didn't flow their way, for people who only embraced democracy when it suited them, for people who were at one time dedicated to overthrowing the lawful, constitutional and popularly endorsed institutions of this state, and who have not permanently renounced violence.

tipptom

feargale wrote: »

I wouldn't have anything against a growth of the left or a realignment of Irish politics on a left-right basis ( it's almost inevitable given the mismanagement of the country and the leeway given to pirates,) but it's not good for the country to have as standard-bearers of the left people of questionable democratic credentials, apologists for some of the worst atrocities that Ireland endured in the 20th century, for people who flouted the popular will when it didn't flow their way, for people who only embraced democracy when it suited them, for people who were at one time dedicated to overthrowing the lawful, constitutional and popularly endorsed institutions of this state, and who have not permanently renounced violence.

You talking about FF or FG there?

tipptom

josephryan1989 wrote: »

And what makes you think they still won't catch fleas? Tides come in and out and governments come and go and parties will be clobbered if they don't deliver. That's just a fact of life in politics. Do SF think they are special or something?

I am not saying they wont catch fleas because we have been fooled a lot of times by lies in this country and if they turn out as bad as the others then their meteoric rise will meet with a faster fall than the civil war party's.

feargale

tipptom wrote: »

You talking about FF or FG there?

If you are talking about events in the early part of the twentieth century I have never been asked to vote for anyone who had anything to do with those events.

Jayop

feargale wrote: »

If you are talking about events in the early part of the twentieth century I have never been asked to vote for anyone who had anything to do with those events.

Who's the SF TD in your constituency?


Edit or candidate if they didn't get in.

feargale

Jayop wrote: »

Who's the SF TD in your constituency?


Edit or candidate if they didn't get in.

Too young to have anything, directly or indirectly, to do with murder, kidnapping, kneecapping, robbery, hiding of victims' bodies, the cold-blooded murder of a young apolitical census enumerator at a subject's door ( bolstering the foreign occupation, don't you know ) etc. - if that is your point, but has never been disassociated from all that blackguarding, and has never expressly renounced it on a permanent basis.

Dyr

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The problem is that every left party is refusing to join with each other because the other party is not left enough.

.

Fairly trite analysis tbh. Right2change was pretty much exactly that

Towards the other end of the spectrum, Sinn Fein, the Social Democrats and Labour (although in practice if you include Labour as a left wing party you better include Fianna Fail) are all pragmatic about who they'll work with

The only party who engages in the not left enough nonsense is AAA.

eire4

josephryan1989 wrote: »

Slowly building a base for what? The past 30 odd years we have had coalition governments because that is the simple arithmetic of the Dail. The only way SF is going to avoid catching fleas is if they get an overall majority which would mean abandoning the legacy of the Troubles and scrubbing away any connection with armed struggle before becoming a mainstream catch all party. If they wait for the perfect conditions they might as well be waiting for Godot.

Indeed coalition governments are likely to remain the norm in Ireland for the forseeable future. I would imagine Sinn Fein are looking to build themselves to a point where they could be the majority party in a coalition.

eire4

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The problem is that every left party is refusing to join with each other because the other party is not left enough.

FF claim to be a left of centre republican party. Some people may not perceive them as such and they may be correct. However, if they are presenting themselves as left wing, surely then they will be able to at least enter talks with SF, AAA etc and try to agree a programme for government.

No doubt about it the left of the Irish political spectrum has often been very fragmented at times and this has been a real problem.


In terms of Fianna Fail to my mind they are a center right party.